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A Study on Commodity Asset Investment Model Based on Machine Learning Technique (기계학습을 활용한 상품자산 투자모델에 관한 연구)

  • Song, Jin Ho;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.127-146
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    • 2017
  • Services using artificial intelligence have begun to emerge in daily life. Artificial intelligence is applied to products in consumer electronics and communications such as artificial intelligence refrigerators and speakers. In the financial sector, using Kensho's artificial intelligence technology, the process of the stock trading system in Goldman Sachs was improved. For example, two stock traders could handle the work of 600 stock traders and the analytical work for 15 people for 4weeks could be processed in 5 minutes. Especially, big data analysis through machine learning among artificial intelligence fields is actively applied throughout the financial industry. The stock market analysis and investment modeling through machine learning theory are also actively studied. The limits of linearity problem existing in financial time series studies are overcome by using machine learning theory such as artificial intelligence prediction model. The study of quantitative financial data based on the past stock market-related numerical data is widely performed using artificial intelligence to forecast future movements of stock price or indices. Various other studies have been conducted to predict the future direction of the market or the stock price of companies by learning based on a large amount of text data such as various news and comments related to the stock market. Investing on commodity asset, one of alternative assets, is usually used for enhancing the stability and safety of traditional stock and bond asset portfolio. There are relatively few researches on the investment model about commodity asset than mainstream assets like equity and bond. Recently machine learning techniques are widely applied on financial world, especially on stock and bond investment model and it makes better trading model on this field and makes the change on the whole financial area. In this study we made investment model using Support Vector Machine among the machine learning models. There are some researches on commodity asset focusing on the price prediction of the specific commodity but it is hard to find the researches about investment model of commodity as asset allocation using machine learning model. We propose a method of forecasting four major commodity indices, portfolio made of commodity futures, and individual commodity futures, using SVM model. The four major commodity indices are Goldman Sachs Commodity Index(GSCI), Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index(DJUI), Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index(TRCI), and Rogers International Commodity Index(RI). We selected each two individual futures among three sectors as energy, agriculture, and metals that are actively traded on CME market and have enough liquidity. They are Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Corn, Wheat, Gold and Silver Futures. We made the equally weighted portfolio with six commodity futures for comparing with other commodity indices. We set the 19 macroeconomic indicators including stock market indices, exports & imports trade data, labor market data, and composite leading indicators as the input data of the model because commodity asset is very closely related with the macroeconomic activities. They are 14 US economic indicators, two Chinese economic indicators and two Korean economic indicators. Data period is from January 1990 to May 2017. We set the former 195 monthly data as training data and the latter 125 monthly data as test data. In this study, we verified that the performance of the equally weighted commodity futures portfolio rebalanced by the SVM model is better than that of other commodity indices. The prediction accuracy of the model for the commodity indices does not exceed 50% regardless of the SVM kernel function. On the other hand, the prediction accuracy of equally weighted commodity futures portfolio is 53%. The prediction accuracy of the individual commodity futures model is better than that of commodity indices model especially in agriculture and metal sectors. The individual commodity futures portfolio excluding the energy sector has outperformed the three sectors covered by individual commodity futures portfolio. In order to verify the validity of the model, it is judged that the analysis results should be similar despite variations in data period. So we also examined the odd numbered year data as training data and the even numbered year data as test data and we confirmed that the analysis results are similar. As a result, when we allocate commodity assets to traditional portfolio composed of stock, bond, and cash, we can get more effective investment performance not by investing commodity indices but by investing commodity futures. Especially we can get better performance by rebalanced commodity futures portfolio designed by SVM model.

A Tool for Mapping and Measuring Sustainable Capacity Development: Concepts, Methods and Contexts (균형적 능력개발의 매핑 및 측정을 위한 도구 - 개념, 방법론 및 배경 -)

  • Liou, Jae-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2006
  • The discussion about capacity development (CD) has been spotlighted as significant drivers for sustainable development in recent years. Multi-dimensional natures of capacities would lead to various definitions of CD in international institutes and organizations. CD is perceived as an endogeneous process to improve actionable learning and knowledge, but most of core capacities still remain abstract notion and might be unreliable in sustainable development (SD). The paper first explicates international perspectives of CD in association with SD. An agent-based model is especially proposed to portray more details of CD. It illuminates the role of assets (or capitals, resources) in agents to impact on ingredients of CDs that are drivers or enablers for improvement of SD. A definition of sustainable capacity development is firstly articulated in international society and its conceptual framework is also creatively designed to assist concerned international organizations. The paper concludes by proposing practical spatial asset mapping linking to agent-based organizational capacity as a tool for measuring sustainable capacity development.

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Requirments Analysis and AAS Design for Energy Digital Twin (에너지 디지털 트윈을 위한 요구사항 분석 및 AAS 설계)

  • Park, Kishik;Oh, Seongjin;Kang, Changku;Sung, Inmo;Sakar, Aranya
    • Smart Media Journal
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.109-117
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    • 2020
  • Recently, with the advent of the 4th industrial revolution, digital twins are emerging as an important technology that connects and integrates physical systems and cyber systems. In this article, we analyzed the major requirements of digital twins required for the construction of digital twins of power equipments in the energy field, focusing on the industry 4.0-based Asset Administration Shell(AAS). However, since not so many studies have been conducted yet on a common platform or demonstration model for implementing digital twins both domestically and internationally, digital twin requirements are analyzed with the consideration of digital twinning of power equipment in the energy field. Also, we suggested necessary procedures and specific functions of AAS to establish a smart energy digital twin in the future by analyzing the core requirements necessary for the construction and designing the AAS design for specific power equipment.

Component Grid: A Developer-centric Environment for Defense Software Reuse (컴포넌트 그리드: 개발자 친화적인 국방 소프트웨어 재사용 지원 환경)

  • Ko, In-Young;Koo, Hyung-Min
    • Journal of Software Engineering Society
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2010
  • In the defense software domain where large-scale software products in various application areas need to be built, reusing software is regarded as one of the important practices to build software products efficiently and economically. There have been many efforts to apply various methods to support software reuse in the defense software domain. However, developers in the defense software domain still experience many difficulties and face obstacles in reusing software assets. In this paper, we analyze practical problems of software reuse in the defense software domain, and define core requirements to solve those problems. To meet these requirements, we are currently developing the Component Grid system, a reuse-support system that provides a developer-centric software reuse environment. We have designed an architecture of Component Grid, and defined essential elements of the architecture. We have also developed the core approaches for developing the Component Grid system: a semantic-tagging-based requirement tracing method, a reuse-knowledge representation model, a social-network-based asset search method, a web-based asset management environment, and a wiki-based collaborative and participative knowledge construction and refinement method. We expect that the Component Grid system will contribute to increase the reusability of software assets in the defense software domain by providing the environment that supports transparent and efficient sharing and reuse of software assets.

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A Study on the Scope and Determinants of Electronic Collaboration based on IT in Interorganizational Relationships (기업간 거래에서 정보기술을 활용한 전자적 협력의 범위와 선행요인에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Su-Jeong
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.159-188
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    • 2008
  • This study suggests strategies which can enable to creation of new opportunities of competitive advantages while operating a long lasting and consistent business with major trading partners, based on interorganizational information systems (IOISs) specially established and installed for interorganizational transactions. Nowadays, IOISs based mechanism having been widely expanded as a conventional business infrastructure for the interorganizational transactions and/or exchanges, it is customary difficult to obtain any strongly sound advantage over the competitors who have adopted even the simplest deployment of the IOIS mechanisms. In this connection, this study intends to investigate the interorganizational collaborative activities conducted by under the auspicious of IOISs, focused on the prospect of the exploitation of IOISs rather than the implementation of the IOISs. In this study, we, firstly, suggest the concept of Electronic Collaboration which can be defined by the collaborative activities conducted by IOISs, compared to the ones conducted on off-line. In addition, we suggest the Electronic Collaboration as a multi-dimensional concept, constituted by three sub-constructs, the Electronic Information Sharing (EIS), the Electronic Joint Activity (EJA), and the construction of the Electronic Relational Knowledge Store (ERKS). Secondly, we empirically verify the effects of relational and environmental determinants on the Electronic Collaboration. In this study, the relational determinants relate to the variables created in interorganizational relationship like Trust, Influence, Relational Specific Asset-asset invested for the transaction-, and Continuity of the relationship. On the other hand, the environmental determinants relate to the variables surrounding the relationship which are difficult to control. We consider Product Complexity, Technological Uncertainty, and Market Variability as the domain of the environmental determinants. To test our hypotheses, we conducted both paper-based survey and online-based survey. After refining the data with missing responses, a total of 150 data was used for analysis. The results were as follows : Firstly, it is statistically significant that the Electronic Collaboration is composed of EIS, EJA, and ERKS. In particular, the results imply that the firms are able to accumulate relational knowledge base as well as to exchange information or knowledge, and to conduct joint activities through effort to further expand the Electronic Collaboration. Secondly, we have verified the individual effects of the relational and the environmental determinants on the Electronic Collaboration. Product Complexity has been revealed as the most influential variable affecting the Electronic Collaboration. Next, Interorganizational Trust and Technological Uncertainty, in that order, have been seen to have significant effects on the Electronic Collaboration. In other words, when products or services seem to be difficult to standardize, and the core technologies seem to rapidly change, the need for the Electronic Collaboration increase. In addition, the observation dictates that the interorganizational trust turns out to be a critical variable in building a relationship and in seeking further collaboration. The results, further, illustrate that the environmental determinants are relatively more effective than the relational determinants, which is not consistent with a few prior researches relational determinants emphasized. It is because this study doesn't consider the size of the firm. A few researchers have given an emphasis on the relational determinants like trust and influence, especially from the perspective of small firms in interorganizational relationship. However, in our study, where all the sizes of the firms are contained, electronic collaboration is considerably affected by the environmental determinants.

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A Study on the Development of Optimal Renewal Planning Model in Water Supply Facilities Connected to Future Financial Plan of Water Providers (수도사업자의 장래 재정계획과 연계한 상수도시설의 최적 개량계획 수립 모델 개발 연구)

  • Lim, Sanghyun;Shin, Hwisu;Seo, Jeewon;Kim, Kibum;Koo, Jayong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.31 no.2
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    • pp.149-159
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    • 2017
  • It is considered necessary to renewal a considerable number of water supply facilities in Korea because they began to be intensively buried in the period of rapid economic growth. Accordingly, local water providers are required to take measures against this situation, but they have currently been caught in a vicious circle of the lack of budget spent in renewing water supply facilities because county-based small-scale local water supply cannot afford to cover annual expenditures with their revenues from water rates. Therefore, this study developed an optimal renewal planning model capable of achieving a balance of financial revenue and expenditure in local water supply using nonlinear programming and furthermore of minimizing the total cost incurred during the analysis. To this end, this study selected the water supply area located in County Y as a research area to build the financial revenue and expenditure and used Solver function provided by Microsoft Excel to use nonlinear programming. As a result, this study developed an optimal renewal planning model minimizing incurred costs in consideration of 6 items in the financial revenue and expenditure. The optimal renewal plan was modeled according to the available annual budget. As a result, this study proposed SICD, a scenario to minimize total costs from the perspective of water suppliers, and SITS, a scenario to minimize the increase in water rates from the perspective of consumers. It can be said that the method proposed in this study is the core of the optimal financial and renewal plans as a final stage of asset management for water supply facilities. Therefore, it is considered possible for local water providers to use the method proposed in this study according to circumstances for the asset management of water supply facilities.

Success Factors in Effecting Cultural Change in Organizations: A Case Study (조직 문화 변화의 성공 요소에 관한 연구 - KM을 변화 플랫폼으로 적용한 기업 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Roh, Jeong-Ran
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Library and Information Science
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.427-445
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    • 2010
  • In our knowledge-based society, a corporation's main growth engine consists of its unique core competences and how these are organized rather than materialized competitive advantage. Intangible factors such as creative organizational culture, learning capability, brands, marketing ability and technology are notable examples of such core competencies. To ensure constant development of a corporation, it is important to understand the environment in which these factors operate. Drawing on literature research, this paper looks at organizational culture and change, and employees' attitudes and resistance factors to such change. To strengthen the explanation of this study the Korea Asset Management Corporation was used as a case study. From the point of view of information science, knowledge has been viewed as that which is found in books and databases. Such "knowledge" is storable, passive and unchangeable. However, more recently it is seen by many researchers that this approach is limited in that it ignores the knowledge that "sits" in human "bodyminds" and organizations. Such knowledge forms the backbone of organizational culture and should be considered in any meaningful study of information.

Product-Line Architecture Development for Self-Adaptive Software (적응형 소프트웨어를 위한 프로덕트 라인 아키텍처 개발)

  • Ye, Eun-Suk;Yeom, Keun-Hyuk;Moon, Mi-Kyeong
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.15D no.3
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    • pp.361-374
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    • 2008
  • In the latest intelligent computing environments, the self-adaptive software, as new software paradigm, which modifies its own behavior in response to changes in its operating environment is needed. To develop the self-adaptive software, it is necessary to analyze and design the context of software as well as the structure and the behavior of software. We need more efforts for self-adaptive software development than for traditional software development because we need more activities and technologies like context modeling and adaptation to develop the self-adaptive software. In this paper, we present the product line architecture for self-adaptive software and templates of artifacts to improve the efficiency of development through a reuse methodology. The artifacts of the architecture support the systematic reuse activities of core assets by expressing the commonality and variability of product line.

An Analysis of Core Competency of Construction Field Engineer for Cost Management (건설기술자의 원가관리 업무역량 분석 연구)

  • Choi, Jae-Hong;Kim, Yea-Sang
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.26-34
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    • 2013
  • Recently, many companies recognize the individual human resource as a core asset of the corporate value creation and devote a lot of effort to develop and manage competency-based human resource in order to strengthen the corporate competitiveness. As the integrated construction company taking the major portion in Korean construction industry, its construction engineers perform the construction supervision task with various related parties at each stage of the life cycle of the construction project. Therefore, the competency of a construction engineer is an important factor which have a direct impact on the success of the construction project. However, the current capability evaluation scheme of the domestic construction engineers is mainly oriented on the qualification factors such as the certificates or the seniority and this is quite different from evaluating the actual ability for construction management tasks. In this point of view, this study proposes the appropriate level of proficiency in cost management by analyzing the work process and its detailed items of the cost management that is the one of the basic management items of the construction industry. Based on this, this study analyzes the current competency level of the construction engineer by comparing with the required competency of each job position and also performs the engineer's work competency analysis of each work step.

The Impact of Social Capital of Manufacturing Companies on Relationship Performance (제조기업의 사회자본이 공급사슬 관계 성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Noh, Hyeyoung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.143-155
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    • 2020
  • The relationship between companies in the supply chain is a core competency of the company and key indicator which determines the survival of a company. Therefore, companies are investing in efforts for inter-company relations, and related studies have been conducted for a long time. However, in the supply chain, the positions and characteristics of suppliers and buyers are not the same. Therefore, research is needed to better understand and respond to other characteristics of the relationship between suppliers and buyers. The purpose of this study was to identify the characteristics of the resources held between the buyer and the supplier through social capital, which is a value asset that can be used as a resource created through social relations, and whether it affects the commitment of the relationship. In addition, The core of this study was to statistically analyze the differences between suppliers and buyers through this analysis. This study was conducted by surveying companies that are suppliers and buyers along the supply chain. The difference between the supplier and the buyer was revealed through empirical analysis, and statistically, the difference between the two groups was also revealed. As a result of the analysis, the higher the involvement of the buyer, the more significant the result of structural capital was, and the result was statistically opposite to the supplier. As for the relationship capital, quantitative and qualitative relationship capital had different effects on the commitment. Both the supplier and the buyer had a positive effect on relationship performance. However, the effect of emotional commitment on non-financial relationship performance has a greater degree of influence on suppliers, and it appears in statistical differences. This study revealed differences in the relationship between suppliers and buyers, and found that different investments and efforts were required for each group.