• Title/Summary/Keyword: Control robustness

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Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

Optimum Synthesis Conditions of Coating Slurry for Metallic Structured De-NOx Catalyst by Coating Process on Ship Exhaust Gas (선박 배연탈질용 금속 구조체 기반 촉매 제조를 위한 코팅슬러리 최적화)

  • Jeong, Haeyoung;Kim, Taeyong;Im, Eunmi;Lim, Dong-Ha
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2018
  • To reduce the environmental pollution by $NO_x$ from ship engine, International maritime organization (IMO) announced Tier III regulation, which is the emmision regulation of ship's exhaust gas in Emission control area (ECA). Selective catalytic reduction (SCR) process is the most commercial $De-NO_x$ system in order to meet the requirement of Tier III regulation. In generally, commercial ceramic honeycomb SCR catalyst has been installed in SCR reactor inside marine vessel engine. However, the ceramic honeycomb SCR catalyst has some serious issues such as low strength and easy destroution at high velocity of exhaust gas from the marine engine. For these reasons, we design to metallic structured catalyst in order to compensate the defects of the ceramic honeycomb catalyst for applying marine SCR system. Especially, metallic structured catalyst has many advantages such as robustness, compactness, lightness, and high thermal conductivity etc. In this study, in order to support catalyst on metal substrate, coating slurry is prepared by changing binder. we successfully fabricate the metallic structured catalyst with strong adhesion by coating, drying, and calcination process. And we carry out the SCR performance and durability such as sonication and dropping test for the prepared samples. The MFC01 shows above 95% of $NO_x$ conversion and much more robust and more stable compared to the commercial honeycomb catalyst. Based on the evaluation of characterization and performance test, we confirm that the proposed metallic structured catalyst in this study has high efficient and durability. Therefore, we suggest that the metallic structured catalyst may be a good alternative as a new type of SCR catalyst for marine SCR system.