• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.10-16
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• 2015

In this study, we suggest a method to predict probability distribution of a new customer's degree of loyalty using C-CRF that reflects the RFM score and similarity to the neighbors of the customer. An RFM score prediction model is introduced to construct the first feature function of C-CRF. Integrating demographical similarity, purchasing characteristic similarity and purchase history similarity, we make a unified similarity variable to configure the second feature function of C-CRF. Then parameters of each feature function are estimated and we train our C-CRF model by training data set and suggest a probabilistic distribution to estimate a new customer's degree of loyalty. An example is provided to illustrate our model.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.338-343
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• 2015

We suggest a method to configure feature functions of continuous conditional random field (C-CRF). Regression tree and similarity analysis are introduced to construct the first and second feature functions of C-CRF, respectively. Rules from the regression tree are transformed to logic functions. If a logic in the set of rules is true for a data then it returns the corresponding value of leaf node and zero, otherwise. We build an Euclidean similarity matrix to define neighborhood, which constitute the second feature function. Using two feature functions, we make a C-CRF model and an illustrate example is provided.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.148-155
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• 2016

Existing power plants may consume significant amounts of fuel and require high operating costs, partly because of poor electrical power output estimates. This paper suggests a continuous conditional random field (C-CRF) model to predict more precisely the full-load electrical power output of a base load operated combined cycle power plant. We introduce three feature functions to model association potential and one feature function to model interaction potential. Together, these functions compose the C-CRF model, and the model is transformed into a multivariate Gaussian distribution with which the operation parameters can be modeled more efficiently. The performance of our model in estimating power output was evaluated by means of a real dataset and our model outperformed existing methods. Moreover, our model can be used to estimate confidence intervals of the predicted output and calculate several probabilities.