• Title/Summary/Keyword: Conservative approach

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Evaluation of Patients with Hemoptysis and A Normal Chest Roentgenogram (정상 흉부 X-선 소견을 가진 객혈환자의 관찰)

  • Han, Chun-Duk;Kim, Yeon-Jae;Lee, Yeung-Suk;Park, Jae-Yong;Jung, Tae-Hoon
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.42-49
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    • 1995
  • Background: Hemoptysis always merits thorough investigation because even minimal bleeding may be an early indicator of the presence of significant bronchopulmonary disease. But in patients with hemoptysis & a normal chest roentgenogram, there are no clear guidelines for a diagnostic approach, including the indications of bronchoscopy. Methods: Eighty patients with hemoptysis and a normal chest roentgenogram were involved in this study. We evaluated the cause of hemoptysis in these patients by bronchoscopy and/or bronchogram or high-resolution CT of the lung and we analyzed the relationship of clinical features, such as age, sex, smoking and properties of hemoptysis, to the cause of hemoptysis. Results: 1) They were 34 men and 46 women, with the mean age of 46.7 and 41.8 years old, respectively. 2) Initial bronchoscopy provided a diagnosis in 8 patients - bronchogenic carcinoma in 3 patients (3.8%), metastatic cancer in 1 patient(1.3%) and endobronchial tuberculosis in 4 patients(5.0%). 3) Two clinical findings of patients over 50 years and/or with more than 30 pack-year smoking history were associated with bronchogenic carcinoma, and among these two factors, a more than 30 pack-year smoking history was the best predictor for diagnosis of bronchogenic cancer. 4) The 72 patients in whom no specific cause of hemoptysis was identified by initial bronchoscopy underwent bronchogram and/or high resolutional CT of the lung. Then, 6 patients were diagnosed as bronchiectasis and 5 patients rebleeded in the follow up period of 9 to 90 weeks. Of the remaining 66 patients, 33 were followed for 7 to 80 weeks. Among these patients, only 5 patients had recurrent episodes of hemoptysis & they were diagnosed as bronchiectasis in 1 patient, tuberculosis in 2 patients and catamenial hemoptysis in 2 patients. Conclusion: We conclude that patients with hemoptysis and a normal chest roentgenogram who are more than 50 years old or have more than 30 pack-year smoking history should undergo bronchoscopy to exclude possible bronchogenic carcinoma. In patients without these clinical features, a conservative approach with observation appears justified. If hemoptysis recurs to these patients, bronchogram or high-resolutional CT of the lung with sputum examination are necessary.

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Mathematics and Society in Koryo and Chosun (고려.조선시대의 수학과 사회)

  • Joung Ji-Ho
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.48-73
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    • 1986
  • Though the tradition of Korean mathematics since the ancient time up to the 'Enlightenment Period' in the late 19th century had been under the influence of the Chinese mathematics, it strove to develop its own independent of Chinese. However, the fact that it couldn't succeed to form the independent Korean mathematics in spite of many chances under the reign of Kings Sejong, Youngjo, and Joungjo was mainly due to the use of Chinese characters by Koreans. Han-gul (Korean characters) invented by King Sejong had not been used widely as it was called and despised Un-mun and Koreans still used Chinese characters as the only 'true letters' (Jin-suh). The correlation between characters and culture was such that, if Koreans used Han-gul as their official letters, we may have different picture of Korean mathematics. It is quite interesting to note that the mathematics in the 'Enlightenment Period' changed rather smoothly into the Western mathematics at the time when Han-gul was used officially with Chinese characters. In Koryo, the mathematics existed only as a part of the Confucian refinement, not as the object of sincere study. The mathematics in Koryo inherited that of the Unified Shilla without any remarkable development of its own, and the mathematicians were the Inner Officials isolated from the outside world who maintained their positions as specialists amid the turbulence of political changes. They formed a kind of Guild, their posts becoming patrimony. The mathematics in Koryo significant in that they paved the way for that of Chosun through a few books of mathematics such as 'Sanhak-Kyemong', 'Yanghwi-Sanpup' and 'Sangmyung-Sanpup'. King Sejong was quite phenomenal in his policy of promotion of mathematics. King himself was deeply interested in the study, createing an atmosphere in which all the high ranking officials and scholars highly valued mathematics. The sudden development of mathematic culture was mainly due to the personality and capacity of king who took anyone with the mathematic talent into government service regardless of his birth and against the strong opposition of the conservative officials. However, King's view of mathematics never resulted in the true development of mathematics perse and he used it only as an official technique in the tradition way. Korean mathematics in King Sejong's reign was based upon both the natural philosophy in China and the unique geo-political reality of Korean peninsula. The reason why the mathematic culture failed to develop continually against those social background was that the mathematicians were not allowed to play the vital role in that culture, they being only the instrument for the personality or politics of the king. While the learned scholar class sometimes played the important role for the development of the mathematic culture, they often as not became an adamant barrier to it. As the society in Chosun needed the function of mathematics acutely, the mathematicians formed the settled class called Jung-in (Middle-Man). Jung-in was a unique class in Chosun and we can't find its equivalent in China or Japan. These Jung-in mathematician officials lacked tendency to publish their study, since their society was strictly exclusive and their knowledge was very limited. Though they were relatively low class, these mathematicians played very important role in Chosun society. In 'Sil-Hak (the Practical Learning) period' which began in the late 16th century, especially in the reigns of Kings Youngjo and Jungjo, which was called the Renaissance of Chosun, the ambitious policy for the development of science and technology called for. the rapid increase of he number of such technocrats as mathematics, astronomy and medicine. Amid these social changes, the Jung-in mathematicians inevitably became quite ambitious and proud. They tried to explore deeply into mathematics perse beyond the narrow limit of knowledge required for their office. Thus, in this period the mathematics developed rapidly, undergoing very important changes. The characteristic features of the mathematics in this period were: Jung-in mathematicians' active study an publication, the mathematic studies by the renowned scholars of Sil-Hak, joint works by these two classes, their approach to the Western mathematics and their effort to develop Korean mathematics. Toward the 'Enlightenment Period' in the late 19th century, the Western mathematics experienced great difficulty to take its roots in the Peninsula which had been under the strong influence of Confucian ideology and traditional Korean mathematic system. However, with King Kojong's ordinance in 1895, the traditional Korean mathematics influenced by Chinese disappeared from the history of Korean mathematics, as the school system was hanged into the Western style and the Western mathematics was adopted as the only mathematics to be taught at the Schools of various levels. Thus the 'Enlightenment Period' is the period in which Korean mathematics shifted from Chinese into European.

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MATHEMATICS AND SOCIETY IN KORYO AND CHOSUN (고려.조선시대의 수학과 사회)

  • 정지호
    • Journal for History of Mathematics
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.91-105
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    • 1985
  • Though the tradition of Korean mathematics since the ancient time up to the "Enlightenment Period" in the late 19th century had been under the influence of the Chinese mathematics, it strove to develop its own independent of Chinese. However, the fact that it couldn't succeed to form the independent Korean mathematics in spite of many chances under the reign of Kings Sejong, Youngjo, and Joungjo was mainly due to the use of Chinese characters by Koreans. Han-gul (Korean characters) invented by King Sejong had not been used widely as it was called and despised Un-mun and Koreans still used Chinese characters as the only "true letters" (Jin-suh). The correlation between characters and culture was such that , if Koreans used Han-gul as their official letters, we may have different picture of Korean mathematics. It is quite interesting to note that the mathematics in the "Enlightenment Period" changed rather smoothly into the Western mathematics at the time when Han-gul was used officially with Chinese characters. In Koryo, the mathematics existed only as a part of the Confucian refinement, not as the object of sincere study. The mathematics in Koryo inherited that of the Unified Shilla without any remarkable development of its own, and the mathematicians were the Inner Officials isolated from the outside world who maintained their positions as specialists amid the turbulence of political changes. They formed a kind of Guild, their posts becoming patrimony. The mathematics in Koryo is significant in that they paved the way for that of Chosun through a few books of mathematics such as "Sanhak-Kyemong, "Yanghwi - Sanpup" and "Sangmyung-Sanpup." King Sejong was quite phenomenal in his policy of promotion of mathematics. King himself was deeply interested in the study, createing an atmosphere in which all the high ranking officials and scholars highly valued mathematics. The sudden development of mathematic culture was mainly due to the personality and capacity of King who took any one with the mathematic talent onto government service regardless of his birth and against the strong opposition of the conservative officials. However, King's view of mathematics never resulted in the true development of mathematics per se and he used it only as an official technique in the tradition way. Korean mathematics in King Sejong's reign was based upon both the natural philosophy in China and the unique geo-political reality of Korean peninsula. The reason why the mathematic culture failed to develop continually against those social background was that the mathematicians were not allowed to play the vital role in that culture, they being only the instrument for the personality or politics of the King. While the learned scholar class sometimes played the important role for the development of the mathematic culture, they often as not became an adamant barrier to it. As the society in Chosun needed the function of mathematics acutely, the mathematicians formed the settled class called Jung-in (Middle-Man). Jung-in was a unique class in Chosun and we can't find its equivalent in China of Japan. These Jung-in mathematician officials lacked tendency to publish their study, since their society was strictly exclusive and their knowledge was very limited. Though they were relatively low class, these mathematicians played very important role in Chosun society. In "Sil-Hak (the Practical Learning) period" which began in the late 16th century, especially in the reigns of King Youngjo and Jungjo, which was called the Renaissance of Chosun, the ambitious policy for the development of science and technology called for the rapid increase of the number of such technocrats as mathematicians inevitably became quite ambitious and proud. They tried to explore deeply into mathematics per se beyond the narrow limit of knowledge required for their office. Thus, in this period the mathematics developed rapidly, undergoing very important changes. The characteristic features of the mathematics in this period were: Jung-in mathematicians' active study an publication, the mathematic studies by the renowned scholars of Sil-Hak, joint works by these two classes, their approach to the Western mathematics and their effort to develop Korean mathematics. Toward the "Enlightenment Period" in the late 19th century, the Western mathematics experienced great difficulty to take its roots in the Peninsula which had been under the strong influence of Confucian ideology and traditional Korean mathematic system. However, with King Kojong's ordinance in 1895, the traditonal Korean mathematics influenced by Chinese disappeared from the history of Korean mathematics, as the school system was changed into the Western style and the Western matehmatics was adopted as the only mathematics to be taught at the schools of various levels. Thus the "Enlightenment Period" is the period in which Korean mathematics sifted from Chinese into European.od" is the period in which Korean mathematics sifted from Chinese into European.pean.

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Favorable Outcome in Elderly Asian Patients with Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Treated with Everolimus: The Osaka Urologic Oncology Group

  • Inamoto, Teruo;Azuma, Haruhito;Nonomura, Norio;Nakatani, Tatsuya;Matsuda, Tadashi;Nozawa, Masahiro;Ueda, Takeshi;Kinoshita, Hidefumi;Nishimura, Kazuo;Kanayama, Hiro-Omi;Miki, Tsuneharu;Tomita, Yoshihiko;Yoshioka, Toshiaki;Tsujihata, Masao;Uemura, Hirotsugu
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.1811-1815
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    • 2014
  • Background: In clinical trials with no upper age limit, the proportion of older patients is usually small, probably reflecting the more conservative approach adopted by clinicians when treating the elderly. An exploratory analysis of elderly patients in the RECORD-1 Trial showed that patients ${\geq}$ 65 y.o. had superior median PFS than overall RECORD-1 population (5.4 months and 4.9 months, respectively). We investigated the efficacy, relative benefit and safety of Everolimus (EVE) as sequential therapy after failure of VEGFr-TKI therapy for older patients with metastatic renal cell cancer (mRCC), in daily practice. Materials and Methods: 172 consecutive IRB approved patients with mRCC (median age 65, M:F 135/37, 78% clear cell) who received salvage EVE at 39 tertiary institutions between October 2009 and August 2011 were included in this analysis. Some 31% had progressed on sunitinib, 22% on sorafenib, 1% on axitinib, 41% on sequential therapy, and 5% had received other therapy. Patients with brain metastases were not included and 95% of the patients had a ECOG (Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group) performance status (PS) of 0 or 1. Previous radiotherapy was an exclusion criterion, but prior chemotherapy was permitted. Adequate organ function and hematologic parameters were mandatory. EVE administration was approved by the institutional review board at each participating institution and signed informed consent was obtained from all patients. Results: Median time of the whole cohort to last follow-up was 3.5 months (range 0.4-15.2 months). Forty four percent were continuing to take EVE at last followup. There were 86 (50%) patients ${\geq}$ 65 y.o. and 86 (50%) <65 y.o. The percentage of patients who showed PR/SD was higher in the older group than in the younger one (5.9%/61.2% vs 1.2%/46.5%, respectively). Median survival of older patients was also significantly longer (3.5 +/- 0.31 vs 3.1 +/- 0.34, hazard ratio=0.45, CI; 0.255-0.802). Analysis using Cox regression model adjusted for gender, PS, number of metastases, site of metastases, histology, smoking history and age detected an association between age and PFS (p=0.011). The frequency of adverse events in elderly patients treated with EVE was no greater than that in younger patients, although such toxicity may have had a greater impact on their quality of life. Conclusions: Older patients should not generally be excluded from accepted therapies (mTOR inhibitors after failure of VEGFr-TKI therapy) for mRCC.

A Study on the storytelling strategy of Animation Studio using Mythology - Based on the comparative analysis of Disney and Dream Works (신화를 활용한 애니메이션 스튜디오의 스토리텔링 전략 -디즈니<미녀와 야수>와 드림웍스<슈렉>의 비교분석을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Hye-Won
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.49
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    • pp.25-52
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    • 2017
  • As the expansion of the cultural industry expands, various competitive structures are formed and the methodologies for producing commercial success are being discussed. Among them, Hollywood studios use political relationships and apply ideologies that can produce the best interests. Also, they use a structure that can convey this ideology, which is a mythology. The myth has satisfied the public for a ling time. Campbell suggested that strategies come from the myth, and the ideology emerged as a result of what mythology has to do with existing powers. Disney and Dream Works use the mythology and combine their own values into ideology. Disney and Dream Works choose conflicting ideologies in a different growth background. If Disney is recognized as an educational animation by the ruling class, Dream Works are supported by the public for their actions against Disney. Disney has conservative and patriotic personality, Dream Works is more liberal and progressive. Disney's structure came out first, and Dream Works parodied it. So we can compare Disney and Dream Works with similar myths to create a storytelling structure that embodies ideology. As a result, Disney and Dream Works have been choosing the 9 stages the key of Ideology form the 17 stages of the mythology and reduced them to the introduction, growth and completion. In the first units of the introduction, Disney dealt with the subject of social leaders who sacrificed to the ruling class and Dream Works hinted at the overthrow of the ruling class through the irony. If Disney had deployed colored races in the main characters, Dream Works used a variety of races from the main characters to others. In the second units of growth, Disney organized the process of accepting the value of the ruling class, and Dream Works showed the individual values, not the values of society. In the third units completion, Disney showed the main character who live in the world of the ruling class rebuilded, and Dream Works removed the ruling class and went back to the Individual life. Through the structure of Disney and DreamWorks, we learned how to utilize the mythical structures that transform according to ideologies. The right way to organize works will require the strategic approach to storytelling.

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Biofeedback Therapy in Children with Pelvic Floor Dyssynergia (소아 골반저 근실조에서 바이오피드백 치료의 유용성)

  • Park, Kie-Young;Chang, Soo-Hee;Kim, Kyung-Mo
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.51-59
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: Recently well-developed anorectal function tests have revealed that there is an obvious pelvic floor dyssynergia (PFD) pattern in pediatric patients with constipation, as well as in adult's. The use of biofeedback therapy (BT) has been widely implemented in adult PFD patients; however, this approach has only rarely been considered for pediatric PFD patients. Therefore, we assessed the effectiveness of BT in children with PFD. Methods: We studied 70 children with PFD, who were referred to the department of pediatrics at the Asan Medical Center for the management of soiling or chronic constipation from September 2002 to February 2005. Diagnosis of PFD and assessment of the efficacy of BT for PFD treatment were carried out along with several ano-rectal function tests (cine-defecography, ano-rectal manometry, balloon expulsion test and intra-anal EMG); in addition, a questionnaire was administered. The BT based intra-anal EMG was performed. A follow-up telephone interview was performed more than 6 months later. Results: Most of the symptoms and results of the ano-rectal function tests were statistically improved after BT. In comparisons between the BT and control groups (BT refusal group due to poor compliance), the symptoms were statistically improved at follow-up. Therefore, for the shortterm improvement of symptoms, BT was better than conservative therapy alone. The negative feelings associated with ano-rectal function testing and BT were directly associated with failure or success of therapy. Conclusion: Pediatric patients with constipation or soiling that presented with an obvious PFD pattern showed that BT was a useful therapeutic tool for rapid improvement of symptoms.

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Influence of air abrasion and different dentin sealing techniques on microtensile bond strength to dentin (상아질의 봉쇄 시기와 표면처리 방법이 미세인장 결합강도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang, Dong-Ho;Han, Chong-Hyun;Park, Jung-Won;Kim, Sun-Jai
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.48 no.1
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    • pp.8-15
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of various methods of dentin bonding agent application and air abrasion pretreatment on microtensile bond strength between dentin and resin, using a self-etching adhesive system. Material and methods: Thirty freshly extracted human molars were obtained and divided into 6 groups of 5 teeth. A 2-step self etching adhesive system (Clearfil SE Bond) was used for all groups. The control specimens were prepared using a direct immediate bonding technique. The delayed dentin sealing specimens were prepared using an indirect approach without dentin prebonding. The immediate dentin sealing specimens were prepared using dentin prebonding immediately following preparation. Immediate dentin sealing teeth and delayed dentin sealing teeth had provisional restorations using Fermit for two weeks. Then all specimens of each group were divided into two groups of three, depending on air abrasion pretreatment. Composite "crowns" were incrementally built on and specimens were stored in water for 24 hours. All teeth were prepared for a microtensile bond strength test. Bond strength data were analyzed with a one-way ANOVA test, and post hoc comparison was done using the Scheffe's test. Results: The mean microtensile bond strengths of all groups were not statistically different from each other. Conclusion: When preparing teeth for indirect restorations, IDS and DDS with Clearfil SE bond, have no difference on the microtensile bond strength between dentin and resin. Air abrasion pretreatment did not affect the microtensile bond strength when using IDS and DDS with Clearfil SE bond.

Clinical Study on Laryngo - Microscopic Surgery For Vocal Nodules and Polyps (후두결절 및 폴립의 후두미세 수술에 관한 임상연구)

  • 문영일
    • Proceedings of the KOR-BRONCHOESO Conference
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    • 1983.05a
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    • pp.11.2-11
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    • 1983
  • Vocal nodules and polyps are much more frequent in singers, public speakers, teachers and actors. Voice trauma and voice misuse, at times associated with mild inflammatory reaction, appear to be important in their etiology. It is generally agreed that vocal cord nodules and polyps are inflammatory in nature and they arise in the subepithelial layer of loose connective tissue of the vocal cord. Since the junction of anterior and middle thirds of the membranous cord and has the greatest amplitude of vibration. This is the site of predilection for vocal cord nodules. The author performed laryngomicrosurgery for 70 cases of vocal nodules and polyps at Ewha Womans University Hospital during the period of 5 years. The result obtained were as follows ; 1) Surgical excision is not necessarily the best approach because vocal nodules in the early stages will resolve with the simplest voice therapy. 2) In children, surgery is rarely indicated because most nodules in children regress during adolescence. 3) For patients who use their voices professionally, voice therapy is indicated for three months. 4) If after three month of conservative treatment the cord lesion does not improve and the patient it still dissatisfied with his voice, laryngomicrosurgery can then be considered. 5) The small cuffed endotracheal tube in the interarytenoid space helps to keep the cords immobile and in an abducted position. 6) Removal of the nodule shoule be started by gentle retraction posteriorly and as soon as a tear appears anterior to the nodule. 7) On occasion it is preferable to start the dissection with a siccle knife while the nodule is held on the stretch. 8) Voice rest should be maintained for a week following which the free edges of the cords are usually healed.

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The Recognition Characteristics of Science Gifted Students on the Earth System based on their Thinking Style (과학 영재 학생들의 사고양식에 따른 지구시스템에 대한 인지 특성)

  • Lee, Hyonyong;Kim, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.12-30
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze recognition characteristics of science gifted students on the earth system based on their thinking style. The subjects were 24 science gifted students at the Science Institute for Gifted Students of a university located in metropolitan city in Korea. The students' thinking styles were firstly examined on the basis of the Sternberg's theory of mental self-government. And then, the students were divided into two groups: Type I group(legislative, judicial, global, liberal) and Type II group(executive, local, conservative) based on Sternberg's theory. Data was collected from three different type of questionnaires(A, B, C types), interview, word association method, drawing analyses, concept map, hidden dimension inventory, and in-depth interviews. The findings of analysis indicated that their thinking styles were characterized by 'Legislative', 'Executive', 'Anarchic', 'Global', 'External', 'Liberal' styles. Their preference were conducting new projects and using creative problem solving processes. The results of students' recognition characteristics on earth system were as follows: First, though the two groups' quantitative value on 'System Understanding' was very similar, there were considerable distinctions in details. Second, 'Understanding the Relationship in the System' was closely connected to thinking styles. Type I group was more advantageous with multiple, dynamic, and recursive approach. Third, in the relation to 'System Generalization' both of the groups had similar simple interpretational ability of the system, but Type I group was better on generalization when 'hidden dimension inventory' factor was added. On the system prediction factor, however, students' ability was weak regardless of the type. Consequently, more specific development strategies on various objects are needed for the development and application of the system learning program. Furthermore, it is expected that this study could be practically and effectively used on various fields related to system recognition.

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Forecasting Substitution and Competition among Previous and New products using Choice-based Diffusion Model with Switching Cost: Focusing on Substitution and Competition among Previous and New Fixed Charged Broadcasting Services (전환 비용이 반영된 선택 기반 확산 모형을 통한 신.구 상품간 대체 및 경쟁 예측: 신.구 유료 방송서비스간 대체 및 경쟁 사례를 중심으로)

  • Koh, Dae-Young;Hwang, Jun-Seok;Oh, Hyun-Seok;Lee, Jong-Su
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.223-252
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    • 2008
  • In this study, we attempt to propose a choice-based diffusion model with switching cost, which can be used to forecast the dynamic substitution and competition among previous and new products at both individual-level and aggregate level, especially when market data for new products is insufficient. Additionally, we apply the proposed model to the empirical case of substitution and competition among Analog Cable TV that represents previous fixed charged broadcasting service and Digital Cable TV and Internet Protocol TV (IPTV) that are new ones, verify the validities of our proposed model, and finally derive related empirical implications. For empirical application, we obtained data from survey conducted as follows. Survey was administered by Dongseo Research to 1,000 adults aging from 20 to 60 living in Seoul, Korea, in May of 2007, under the title of 'Demand analysis of next generation fixed interactive broadcasting services'. Conjoint survey modified as follows, was used. First, as the traditional approach in conjoint analysis, we extracted 16 hypothetical alternative cards from the orthogonal design using important attributes and levels of next generation interactive broadcasting services which were determined by previous literature review and experts' comments. Again, we divided 16 conjoint cards into 4 groups, and thus composed 4 choice sets with 4 alternatives each. Therefore, each respondent faces 4 different hypothetical choice situations. In addition to this, we added two ways of modification. First, we asked the respondents to include the status-quo broadcasting services they subscribe to, as another alternative in each choice set. As a result, respondents choose the most preferred alternative among 5 alternatives consisting of 1 alternative with current subscription and 4 hypothetical alternatives in 4 choice sets. Modification of traditional conjoint survey in this way enabled us to estimate the factors related to switching cost or switching threshold in addition to the effects of attributes. Also, by using both revealed preference data(1 alternative with current subscription) and stated preference data (4 hypothetical alternatives), additional advantages in terms of the estimation properties and more conservative and realistic forecast, can be achieved. Second, we asked the respondents to choose the most preferred alternative while considering their expected adoption timing or switching timing. Respondents are asked to report their expected adoption or switching timing among 14 half-year points after the introduction of next generation broadcasting services. As a result, for each respondent, 14 observations with 5 alternatives for each period, are obtained, which results in panel-type data. Finally, this panel-type data consisting of $4{\ast}14{\ast}1000=56000$observations is used for estimation of the individual-level consumer adoption model. From the results obtained by empirical application, in case of forecasting the demand of new products without considering existence of previous product(s) and(or) switching cost factors, it is found that overestimated speed of diffusion at introductory stage or distorted predictions can be obtained, and as such, validities of our proposed model in which both existence of previous products and switching cost factors are properly considered, are verified. Also, it is found that proposed model can produce flexible patterns of market evolution depending on the degree of the effects of consumer preferences for the attributes of the alternatives on individual-level state transition, rather than following S-shaped curve assumed a priori. Empirically, it is found that in various scenarios with diverse combinations of prices, IPTV is more likely to take advantageous positions over Digital Cable TV in obtaining subscribers. Meanwhile, despite inferiorities in many technological attributes, Analog Cable TV, which is regarded as previous product in our analysis, is likely to be substituted by new services gradually rather than abruptly thanks to the advantage in low service charge and existence of high switching cost in fixed charged broadcasting service market.

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