• Title/Summary/Keyword: Confidence bound

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Bayesian Reliability Analysis Using Kriging Dimension Reduction Method(KDRM) (크리깅 기반 차원감소법을 이용한 베이지안 신뢰도 해석)

  • An, Da-Un;Choi, Joo-Ho;Won, Jun-Ho
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.275-280
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    • 2008
  • A technique for reliability-based design optimization(RBDO) is developed based on the Bayesian approach, which can deal with the epistemic uncertainty arising due to the limited number of data. Until recently, the conventional REDO was implemented mostly by assuming the uncertainty as aleatory which means the statistical properties are completely known. In practice, however, this is not the case due to the insufficient data for estimating the statistical information, which makes the existing RBDO methods less useful. In this study, a Bayesian reliability is introduced to take account of the epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as the lower confidence bound of the probability distribution of the original reliability. In this case, the Bayesian reliability requires double loop of the conventional reliability analyses, which can be computationally expensive. Kriging based dimension reduction method(KDRM), which is a new efficient tool for the reliability analysis, is employed to this end. The proposed method is illustrated using a couple of numerical examples.

A numerical application of Bayesian optimization to the condition assessment of bridge hangers

  • X.W. Ye;Y. Ding;P.H. Ni
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2023
  • Bridge hangers, such as those in suspension and cable-stayed bridges, suffer from cumulative fatigue damage caused by dynamic loads (e.g., cyclic traffic and wind loads) in their service condition. Thus, the identification of damage to hangers is important in preserving the service life of the bridge structure. This study develops a new method for condition assessment of bridge hangers. The tension force of the bridge and the damages in the element level can be identified using the Bayesian optimization method. To improve the number of observed data, the additional mass method is combined the Bayesian optimization method. Numerical studies are presented to verify the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method. The influence of different acquisition functions, which include expected improvement (EI), probability-of-improvement (PI), lower confidence bound (LCB), and expected improvement per second (EIPC), on the identification of damage to the bridge hanger is studied. Results show that the errors identified by the EI acquisition function are smaller than those identified by the other acquisition functions. The identification of the damage to the bridge hanger with various types of boundary conditions and different levels of measurement noise are also studied. Results show that both the severity of the damage and the tension force can be identified via the proposed method, thereby verifying the robustness of the proposed method. Compared to the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and nonlinear least-square method (NLS), the Bayesian optimization (BO) performs best in identifying the structural damage and tension force.

Quantitative analysis of cholesterol in infant formula by isotope dilution liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (동위원소희석 액체크로마토그래피 질량분석법에 의한 분유 내 콜레스테롤의 정량)

  • Ahn, Eun Jeong;Lee, Hwa Shim;Kim, Byung Joo;Lee, Gae Ho
    • Analytical Science and Technology
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.460-466
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    • 2015
  • An isotope dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry was developed as a primary method for the quantitative analysis of cholesterol in infant formula. Cholesterol-d4 was used as an internal standard and spiked into the infant formula sample. In order to release cholesterol out of cholesteryl ester, which is cholesterol bound to fatty acids in infant formula, saponification was carried out. Saponification conditions were optimized with heating temperature, reaction time and the concentration of KOH. The optimum conditions were as follows; heating temperature was 70 ℃, reaction time was 180 min and the concentration of KOH was 0.8 mL of 8 M KOH for about 0.1 g infant formula sample. Extraction of cholesterol out of sample solution was carried out with hexane uisng liquid-liquid extraction. Chromatographic analysis was carried out using Phenomenex Kinetex C18 column. Mobile phase was 0.1% acetic acid in methanol/water (v/v, 99/1) and flow rate was 0.3 mL/min. Cholesterol and cholesterol-d4 were monitored at mass transfer m/z 369/259 and 373/263 respectively. Reproducibility of the method was evaluated to be 0.23% of the measurement result. The expanded uncertainty of the measurement result of cholesterol in infant formula was approximately 1.9% at a 95% confidence level. NIST standard reference material having certified values of cholesterol in infant formula, was analyzed in order to verify this method. The ID-LC/MS/MS results were well agreed with the certified values of NIST SRM within the uncertainty.

Glutathione S-transferase polymorphism of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia in Korean neonates (한국인 신생아 황달과 Glutathione S-transferase 다형성에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Chang Seok;Hong, Seung Su;Kim, Ji Sook;Kim, Eun Ryoung
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.262-266
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    • 2008
  • Purpose : Glutathione S-transferase (GST) is a polymorphic supergene family of detoxification enzymes that are involved in the metabolism of numerous diseases. Several allelic variants of GSTs show impaired enzyme activity and are suspected to increase the susceptibility to diseases. Bilirubin is bound efficiently by GST members. The most commonly expressed gene in the liver is GSTM1, and GSTT1 is expressed predominantly in the liver and kidneys. To ascertain the relationship between GST and neonatal hyperbilirubinemia, the distribution of the polymorphisms of GSTT1 and GSTM1 were investigated in this study. Methods : Genomic DNA was isolated from 88 patients and 186 healthy controls. The genotypes were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results : The overall frequency of the GSTM1 null was lower in patients compared to controls (P=0.0187, Odds ratio (OR) =0.52, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.31-0.88). Also, the GSTT1 null was lower in patients compared to controls (P=0.0014, OR=0.41, 95% CI=0.24-0.70). Moreover, the frequency of the null type of both, in the combination of GSTM1 and GSTT1, was significantly reduced in jaundiced patients (P=0.0008, OR=0.31, 95% CI=0.17-0.61). Conclusion : We hypothesized that GSTM1 and GSTT1 might be associated with neonatal hyperbilirubinemia. However, the GSTT1 and GSTM1 null type was reduced in patients. Therefore the null GSTT1, null GSTM1, and null type of both in the combination of GSTM1 and GSTT1 may be not a risk factor of neonatal jaundice.