• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제22권51호
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• pp.199-210
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• 1999

The number of car accident is Recently on the increase in Korea because of the explosive increase of cars, the poor road condition, the lack of safety facility, and others. The insurant with a accident has to decide whether receiving a insurance or not. In this paper, we represent a reasonable decision support material by calculating the approximate insurance fee based on the discount rate and premium additive rate, which is changed by the accident type and the accident expenditure. Practically, there is difference in the standard insurance rate and premium additive rate according to the accident type and the accident expenditure in Korea. The premium additive rate is assessed considering the number of accident, the pattern of accident, and the reason of accident for 3 years. In this paper, we represent a decision making method considering not only the first-time car accident but also the future car accident. For considering the repeated accident, we analyzed the real data accumulated until the year of 1996 from S Insurance Company, and estimated the probability density function between the first and the second-time accident, and executed the goodness of fit test using ARENA and STATISTICA software. Using this conditional PDF, we can calculate the insurance fee next 3 years and compare the insurance fee with the equivalent present value of cash flows. The program performing this analysis is represented, and written in VISUAL BASIC Language. We tried to suggest an accurate guideline for the insurant to decide the insurance coverage rationally, and tried to correct a wrong idea of dependence on the car insurance only by the amount of the accident expenditure. And we expect this study can generally be applied to many different accident types under the uncertain circumstances in our daily life.

• 한국연소학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국연소학회 2004년도 제28회 KOSCO SYMPOSIUM 논문집
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• pp.102-111
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• 2004

Partial quenching structure of turbulent diffusion flames in a turbulent mixing layer is investigated by the method of flame hole dynamics to develope a prediction model for the turbulent lift off. The present study is specifically aimed to remedy the problem of the stiff transition of the conditioned partial burning probability across the crossover condition by adopting level-set method which describes propagating or retreating flame front with specified propagation speed. In light of the level-set simulations with two model problems for the propagation speed, the stabilizing conditions for a turbulent lifted flame are suggested. The flame hole dynamics combined with level-set method yields a temporally evolving turbulent extinction process and its partial quenching characteristics is compared with the results of the previous model employing the flame-hole random walk mapping. The probability to encounter reacting' state, conditioned with scalar dissipation rate, demonstrated that the conditional probability has a rather gradual transition across the crossover scalar dissipation rate in contrast to the stiff transition of resulted from the flame-hole random walk mapping and could be attributed to the finite response of the flame edge propagation.

• 한국화재소방학회논문지
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• 제19권3호
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• pp.64-69
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• 2005

산불은 경제적 손실뿐만 아니라 인명을 위협할 수 있는 국가적 재해다. 이러한 산불을 미연에 방지하고 피해를 저감하기 위해서는 산불발생위험지역을 사전에 판단하여 효율적으로 관리하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 입지환경에서 중요한 부분을 차지하는 산림토양특성 중 토양형, 지형, 토성, 경사, 배수 등과 산불발생지점을 가지고 각 지점별 산불발생위험을 예측할 수 있는 산불발생확률 모형을 개발하였다. 개발 시 조건부확률과 GIS를 이용하였다 개발된 산불발생확률 모형의 적합성 검정을 위하여 추정모형의 예측력 비율을 검토할 수 있는 예측비곡선에 적용한 결과 실효성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 적용하여 산불관리자가 손쉽게 산불발생위험지역을 파악할 수 있도록 위험지역을 구분하였다.

• 한국연소학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.18-29
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• 2004

Partial quenching structure of diffusion flames in a turbulent mixing layer has been investigated by the method of flame hole dynamics in oder to develope a prediction model for the phenomenon of turbulent flame lift off. The present study is specifically aimed to remedy the shortcoming of the stiff transition of the conditioned partial burning probability across the crossover condition by employing the level-set method which enables us to include the effect of finite flame edge propagation speed. In light of the level-set simulation results with two models for the edge propagation speed, the stabilizing conditions for turbulent lifted flame are suggested. The flame hole dynamics combined with the level-set method yields a temporally evolving turbulent extinction process and its partial quenching characteristics is compared with the results of the previous model employing the flame-hole random walk mapping based on three critical scalar dissipation rates. The probability to encounter reacting state, conditioned with scalar dissipation rate, demonstrated that the conditional probability has a rather gradual transition across the crossover scalar dissipation rate. Such a smooth transition is attributed to the finite response of the flame edge propagation.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권6호
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• pp.870-875
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• 2013

After introducing diagnosis equipment power failure prevention activities for distribution system have become more active. To do facility diagnosis and maintenance work more efficiently we need to evaluate reliability for the system and should determine the priority line with appropriate criteria. Thus, to calculate risk factor for the power distribution line that are composed of many component facilities its historical failure events for the last 5 years are collected and analysed. The failure statics show that more than 60% of various failures are related to environment factors randomly and about 20% of the failures are refer to the aging. As a strategic evaluation system reflecting these environmental influence is needed, a system on the basis of the probabilistic approach related statical variables in terms of failure rate and failure probability of electrical components is proposed. The figures for the evaluation are derived from the field failure DB. With adopting Bayesian rule we can calculate easily about conditional probability query. The proposed evaluation system is demonstrated with model system and the calculated indices representing the properties of the model line are discussed.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.241-250
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• 2015

경시적 자료 연구의 중요한 주제 중의 하나는 시간이 지남에 따라 개인의 건강 상태가 어떻게 변하는지를 추적하는 확률이다. 질병의 상태를 시간의 흐름에 따라 추적하는 것은 장기간에 걸친 임상적 관찰 연구의 계획과 분석, 그리고 질병의 예방과 치료에 중요한 의미를 지닌다. 본 논문에서는 두 다른 시점에서 각 개인의 건강 상태에 대한 조건부 확률을 추정해내는 순위 추적 확률에 대하여 연구하였다. 순위 추적 확률과 순위 추적 확률비를 추정하기 위하여 선형 혼합 효과 모형을 고려하였다. 본 논문의 방법은 아동을 대상으로 심혈관계 질환의 위험요인을 연구하는 역학 자료에 적용되었다.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제22권4호
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• pp.17-26
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• 2022

Sensor Nodes play a major role to monitor and sense the variations in physical space in various real-time application scenarios. These nodes are powered by limited battery resources and replacing those resource is highly tedious task along with this it increases implementation cost. Thus, maintaining a good network lifespan is amongst the utmost important challenge in this field of WSN. Currently, energy efficient routing techniques are considered as promising solution to prolong the network lifespan where multi-hop communications are performed by identifying the most energy efficient path. However, the existing scheme suffer from performance related issues. To solve the issues of existing techniques, a novel hybrid technique by merging particle swarm optimization and game theory model is presented. The PSO helps to obtain the efficient number of cluster and Cluster Head selection whereas game theory aids in finding the best optimized path from source to destination by utilizing a path selection probability approach. This probability is obtained by using conditional probability to compute payoff for agents. When compared to current strategies, the experimental study demonstrates that the proposed GTPSO strategy outperforms them.

• Wind and Structures
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• 제4권5호
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• pp.413-440
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• 2001

This paper presents an extensive analysis of unsteady wind loading data on a 18 m long and 2 m high wall in a rural environment, with the wind at a range of angles to the wall normal. The data is firstly analyzed using standard statistical techniques (moments of probability distributions, auto- and cross-correlations, auto- and cross-spectra etc.). The analysis is taken further using a variety of less conventional methods - conditional sampling, proper orthogonal decomposition and wavelet analysis. It is shown that, even though the geometry is simple, the nature of the unsteady flow is surprisingly complex. The fluctuating pressures on the front face of the wall are to a great extent caused by the turbulent fluctuations in the upstream flow, and reflect the oncoming flow structures. The results further suggest that there are distinct structures in the oncoming flow with a variety of scales, and that the second order quasi-steady approach can predict the pressure fluctuations quite well. The fluctuating pressures on the rear face are also influenced by the fluctuations in the oncoming turbulence, but also by unsteady fluctuations due to wake unsteadiness. These fluctuations have a greater temporal and spatial coherence than on the front face and the quasi-steady method over-predicts the extent of these fluctuations. Finally the results are used to check some assumptions made in the current UK wind loading code of practice.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.761-771
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• 2020

This study discusses the role of Board Monitoring Effectiveness (BME) on managers' decisions regarding the business strategies that fit the external business environmental conditions by using a contingency analysis approach. Furthermore, this study will examine how fit strategies affect Sustainability Reporting (SR) of listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2014 to 2017. This study uses Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) technique. This CMP method is claimed to be more efficient in analyzing the TSL models. This study found that in highly uncertain conditions, BME had a positive influence on the probability of managers to choose prospector and defender strategies rather than analyzers. These results indicate that BME shows positive impact on the contingency fit between business strategies and environmental uncertainty. In addition, the study documents that only prospectors have a positive impact on SR, however this study failed to document that defenders have positive impact on SR. Meanwhile the unexpected result is analyzers have a significantly positive effect on SR. This study is the first study to investigate the role of BME in contingency fit between business strategies and environmental uncertainties and how it produces effects up to the level of SR.

• 한국지능시스템학회논문지
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• 제14권5호
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• pp.539-544
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• 2004

본 논문에서는 CONDENSATION 알고리즘을 이용하여 입자 필터(particle filter)에 기반 한 물체 추적 알고리즘을 제안한다. 입자 필터는 조건 확률 전파 모델(Conditional Density Propagation)인 베이지안(Bayesian) 추론 규칙을 적용하는 추적구조를 갖고 있기 때문에 다른 어떤 종류의 추적 알고리즘보다 뛰어난 성능을 보인다. 논문에서는 실험 결과를 통해, 외곽(contour) 추적 입자 필터가 복잡한 환경 속에서 강인한 추적 성능을 나타냄을 증명한다.