• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.87-116
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• 2014

Forecasting of short-term employment fluctuations provides a useful tool for policy makers in risk managing the labor market. Following the process of producing the composite leading indicator for macro economy, the paper develops the employment leading indicator(ELI) for the purpose of short-term forecasting non-farm payroll employment in private sectors. ELI focuses on early detecting the point of time and the speed in phase change of employment level.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• v.51 no.3
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• pp.363-379
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• 2023

Purpose: The main objective of this research is to construct an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model to achieve accurate predictions of the Composite Index of Business Indicators. By incorporating various economic indicators as independent variables, the ACSI model enables the prediction and analysis of both the leading index (CLI) and coincident index (CCI). Methods: This study proposes an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model that leverages diverse economic indicators as independent variables to forecast leading and coincident economic indicators. To evaluate the model's performance, advanced machine learning techniques including MLP, RNN, LSTM, and GRU were employed. Furthermore, the study explores the potential of employing deep learning models to train the weights associated with the independent variables that constitute the composite supplementary index. Results: The experimental results demonstrate the superior accuracy of the proposed composite supple- mentary index model in predicting leading and coincident economic indicators. Consequently, this model proves to be highly effective in forecasting economic cycles. Conclusion: In conclusion, the developed AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model successfully predicts the Composite Index of Business Indicators. Apart from its utility in management, economics, and investment domains, this model serves as a valuable indicator supporting policy-making and decision-making processes related to the economy.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.745-758
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• 2011

An Economic Sentiment Indicator(ESI) is a composite indicator of business survey indices(BSI) and consumer survey indices(CSI). The ESI designed to reflect economic agents' (this includes producers and consumers) overall perceptions of economic activity in a one-dimensional index. The European Commission has published an ESI since 1985. This paper demonstrates the construction of an ESI for the Korean economy. The BSI and CSI components (having a high correlation and a leading feature with respect to GDP) are selected to construct the ESI and they are aggregated using a weighted average and then scaled to have a long-term average of 100 and a standard deviation of 10. Thus values greater than 100 indicate an above-average economic sentiment and vice versa. The newly constructed Korean ESI that extends to January 2003 shows a good tracking performance of GDP and adequately reflects the overall perception of economic activity.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.11-19
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• 2019

Purpose - We document the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the US and China on the dynamic spillover effect of macroeconomics such as stock price, housing price in Korea. Research design, data, and methodology - We use the nine variables to analyze the effect which produces a result among the EPU indexes of the US and China on economic variables which is the consumer price index (CPI), housing purchase price composite index, housing lease price, the stock price index in banking industry, construction industry and distribution industry, and composite leading indicator from January 1995 to December 2016 with the Vector Error Correction Model. Result - The US EPU index has significantly a negative relation on the CPI, housing purchase price index, housing lease price index, the stock price index in banking industry, construction industry, and distribution industry in Korea. Conclusions - We find the dynamic effect of the EPU indexes in the US and China on the macroeconomics returns in Korea. This study has an empirical evidence that the economy market in Korea is influenced by the EPU index of the US rather than it of China. The higher EPU, the more risky the economy of in Korea.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.341-350
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• 2017

Based on the super elastic properties of the shape memory alloy (SMA) and the inverse piezoelectric effect of piezoelectric (PZT) ceramics, a kind of hybrid semi-active control device was designed and made, its mechanical properties test was done under different frequency and different voltage. The local search ability of genetic algorithm is poor, which would fall into the defect of prematurity easily. A kind of adaptive immune memory cloning algorithm(AIMCA) was proposed based on the simulation of clone selection and immune memory process. It can adjust the mutation probability and clone scale adaptively through the way of introducing memory cell and antibody incentive degrees. And performance indicator based on the modal controllable degree was taken as antigen-antibody affinity function, the optimization analysis of damper layout in a space truss structure was done. The structural seismic response was analyzed by applying the neural network prediction model and T-S fuzzy logic. Results show that SMA and PZT friction composite damper has a good energy dissipation capacity and stable performance, the bigger voltage, the better energy dissipation ability. Compared with genetic algorithm, the adaptive immune memory clone algorithm overcomes the problem of prematurity effectively. Besides, it has stronger global searching ability, better population diversity and faster convergence speed, makes the damper has a better arrangement position in structural dampers optimization leading to the better damping effect.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.5
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• pp.89-99
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• 2014

Correlation of KOSPI from stock market and Apartment Prices in Seoul HPPCI from real estate market has been found from this research. Furthermore, from the comparison of those indicators' flows, certain precedence was found as well. The purpose of this research is to analyze correlation and precedence among KOSPI, Apartment price in Seoul, HPPCI and CLI. As for predicting KOSPI of stock market and real estate market, it is necessary to find out preceding indices and analyzing their progresses first. For 27 years from the January 1987 to December 2013, KOSPI has been grown by 687%, while CLI showed 443%, Apartment of Seoul showed 391%, HPPCI showed 263% of growth rate in order. As the result of correlation analysis among Apartment of Seoul, CLI, KOSPI and HPPCI, KOSPI and HPPCI showed high correlation coefficient of 0.877, and Apartment of Seoul and CLI showed that of 0.956 which is even higher. Result from the analysis, CLI shows high correlation with stock and real estate market, it is a good option to watch how CLI flows to predict stock and real estate market.