• Title/Summary/Keyword: Complementary Movement

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A Study on Foreign Exchange Rate Prediction Based on KTB, IRS and CCS Rates: Empirical Evidence from the Use of Artificial Intelligence (국고채, 금리 스왑 그리고 통화 스왑 가격에 기반한 외환시장 환율예측 연구: 인공지능 활용의 실증적 증거)

  • Lim, Hyun Wook;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Lee, Hee Soo;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.71-85
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to find out which artificial intelligence methodology is most suitable for creating a foreign exchange rate prediction model using the indicators of bond market and interest rate market. KTBs and MSBs, which are representative products of the Korea bond market, are sold on a large scale when a risk aversion occurs, and in such cases, the USD/KRW exchange rate often rises. When USD liquidity problems occur in the onshore Korean market, the KRW Cross-Currency Swap price in the interest rate market falls, then it plays as a signal to buy USD/KRW in the foreign exchange market. Considering that the price and movement of products traded in the bond market and interest rate market directly or indirectly affect the foreign exchange market, it may be regarded that there is a close and complementary relationship among the three markets. There have been studies that reveal the relationship and correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, but many exchange rate prediction studies in the past have mainly focused on studies based on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, current account surplus/deficit, and inflation while active research to predict the exchange rate of the foreign exchange market using artificial intelligence based on the bond market and interest rate market indicators has not been conducted yet. This study uses the bond market and interest rate market indicator, runs artificial neural network suitable for nonlinear data analysis, logistic regression suitable for linear data analysis, and decision tree suitable for nonlinear & linear data analysis, and proves that the artificial neural network is the most suitable methodology for predicting the foreign exchange rates which are nonlinear and times series data. Beyond revealing the simple correlation between the bond market, interest rate market, and foreign exchange market, capturing the trading signals between the three markets to reveal the active correlation and prove the mutual organic movement is not only to provide foreign exchange market traders with a new trading model but also to be expected to contribute to increasing the efficiency and the knowledge management of the entire financial market.

APPLICATION OF FUZZY SET THEORY IN SAFEGUARDS

  • Fattah, A.;Nishiwaki, Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 1993.06a
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    • pp.1051-1054
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    • 1993
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency's Statute in Article III.A.5 allows it“to establish and administer safeguards designed to ensure that special fissionable and other materials, services, equipment, facilities and information made available by the Agency or at its request or under its supervision or control are not used in such a way as to further any military purpose; and to apply safeguards, at the request of the parties, to any bilateral or multilateral arrangement, or at the request of a State, to any of that State's activities in the field of atomic energy”. Safeguards are essentially a technical means of verifying the fulfilment of political obligations undertaken by States and given a legal force in international agreements relating to the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The main political objectives are: to assure the international community that States are complying with their non-proliferation and other peaceful undertakings; and to deter (a) the diversion of afeguarded nuclear materials to the production of nuclear explosives or for military purposes and (b) the misuse of safeguarded facilities with the aim of producing unsafeguarded nuclear material. It is clear that no international safeguards system can physically prevent diversion. The IAEA safeguards system is basically a verification measure designed to provide assurance in those cases in which diversion has not occurred. Verification is accomplished by two basic means: material accountancy and containment and surveillance measures. Nuclear material accountancy is the fundamental IAEA safeguards mechanism, while containment and surveillance serve as important complementary measures. Material accountancy refers to a collection of measurements and other determinations which enable the State and the Agency to maintain a current picture of the location and movement of nuclear material into and out of material balance areas, i. e. areas where all material entering or leaving is measurab e. A containment measure is one that is designed by taking advantage of structural characteristics, such as containers, tanks or pipes, etc. To establish the physical integrity of an area or item by preventing the undetected movement of nuclear material or equipment. Such measures involve the application of tamper-indicating or surveillance devices. Surveillance refers to both human and instrumental observation aimed at indicating the movement of nuclear material. The verification process consists of three over-lapping elements: (a) Provision by the State of information such as - design information describing nuclear installations; - accounting reports listing nuclear material inventories, receipts and shipments; - documents amplifying and clarifying reports, as applicable; - notification of international transfers of nuclear material. (b) Collection by the IAEA of information through inspection activities such as - verification of design information - examination of records and repo ts - measurement of nuclear material - examination of containment and surveillance measures - follow-up activities in case of unusual findings. (c) Evaluation of the information provided by the State and of that collected by inspectors to determine the completeness, accuracy and validity of the information provided by the State and to resolve any anomalies and discrepancies. To design an effective verification system, one must identify possible ways and means by which nuclear material could be diverted from peaceful uses, including means to conceal such diversions. These theoretical ways and means, which have become known as diversion strategies, are used as one of the basic inputs for the development of safeguards procedures, equipment and instrumentation. For analysis of implementation strategy purposes, it is assumed that non-compliance cannot be excluded a priori and that consequently there is a low but non-zero probability that a diversion could be attempted in all safeguards ituations. An important element of diversion strategies is the identification of various possible diversion paths; the amount, type and location of nuclear material involved, the physical route and conversion of the material that may take place, rate of removal and concealment methods, as appropriate. With regard to the physical route and conversion of nuclear material the following main categories may be considered: - unreported removal of nuclear material from an installation or during transit - unreported introduction of nuclear material into an installation - unreported transfer of nuclear material from one material balance area to another - unreported production of nuclear material, e. g. enrichment of uranium or production of plutonium - undeclared uses of the material within the installation. With respect to the amount of nuclear material that might be diverted in a given time (the diversion rate), the continuum between the following two limiting cases is cons dered: - one significant quantity or more in a short time, often known as abrupt diversion; and - one significant quantity or more per year, for example, by accumulation of smaller amounts each time to add up to a significant quantity over a period of one year, often called protracted diversion. Concealment methods may include: - restriction of access of inspectors - falsification of records, reports and other material balance areas - replacement of nuclear material, e. g. use of dummy objects - falsification of measurements or of their evaluation - interference with IAEA installed equipment.As a result of diversion and its concealment or other actions, anomalies will occur. All reasonable diversion routes, scenarios/strategies and concealment methods have to be taken into account in designing safeguards implementation strategies so as to provide sufficient opportunities for the IAEA to observe such anomalies. The safeguards approach for each facility will make a different use of these procedures, equipment and instrumentation according to the various diversion strategies which could be applicable to that facility and according to the detection and inspection goals which are applied. Postulated pathways sets of scenarios comprise those elements of diversion strategies which might be carried out at a facility or across a State's fuel cycle with declared or undeclared activities. All such factors, however, contain a degree of fuzziness that need a human judgment to make the ultimate conclusion that all material is being used for peaceful purposes. Safeguards has been traditionally based on verification of declared material and facilities using material accountancy as a fundamental measure. The strength of material accountancy is based on the fact that it allows to detect any diversion independent of the diversion route taken. Material accountancy detects a diversion after it actually happened and thus is powerless to physically prevent it and can only deter by the risk of early detection any contemplation by State authorities to carry out a diversion. Recently the IAEA has been faced with new challenges. To deal with these, various measures are being reconsidered to strengthen the safeguards system such as enhanced assessment of the completeness of the State's initial declaration of nuclear material and installations under its jurisdiction enhanced monitoring and analysis of open information and analysis of open information that may indicate inconsistencies with the State's safeguards obligations. Precise information vital for such enhanced assessments and analyses is normally not available or, if available, difficult and expensive collection of information would be necessary. Above all, realistic appraisal of truth needs sound human judgment.

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The Effects of 8-weeks Jeol Meditation Program on Stress, Depression and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Women (8주간의 절명상 프로그램이 여성의 스트레스, 우울 및 심혈관 위험인자에 미치는 효과)

  • Jung, HwanSug;Kang, YuneSik
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.163-173
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    • 2013
  • Objectives: There has been an increase in the use of mind-body therapies to control cardiovascular risk factors recently. This trial was designed to determine whether the 'jeol'(Korean Buddhists' prostration) meditation program, as a new mind-body intervention, was effective in managing stress, depression and controlling cardiovascular risk factors in women working at a geriatric hospital. Methods: We conducted a randomized controlled trial to determine whether the 'jeol' meditation program could improve stress, anxiety, depression, and cardiovascular risk factors in women. We randomly assigned 57 participants to the intervention(29 participants) or control(28 participants) group. The subjects in the intervention group participated in a group Jeol meditation program once weekly, and practiced at home. The following variables were assessed: stress(Psychosocial Wellbeing Index), depression(Beck's Depression Inventory), body mass index(BMI), waist circumference, hemoglobin A1c(HbA1c), homeostasis model assessment(HOMA), low-density lipoprotein(LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein(HDL) cholesterol, and triglyceride were assessed. Results: After the 8-week program, 2 participants from the intervention group and 1 from the control group dropped out. The subjects in the intervention group exhibited decreased scores for stress(t=5.102, p<0.01), depression(t=5.259, p<0.01), BMI(t=2.942, p=0.007), and waist circumference(t=2.582, p=0.016); however these scores did not demonstrate a significant decrease in participants of the control group. The other variables showed no significant difference between the groups. Conclusion: The 'jeol' meditation program evidently reduced stress, anxiety, depression, body weight, and waist circumference in women, which suggests that this program could be employed as a mind-body therapies.

Interviews on Learner's Interest in Learning of Lifelong Education Center in University (대학 평생교육원 학습자의 학습흥미유발에 대한 인터뷰)

  • Kim, Young-Woo
    • Journal of Korea Entertainment Industry Association
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.145-154
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the performance, learning motivation and satisfaction of the students who take the university 's Lifelong Education Program. The research method was interviewed. The results are as follows. In terms of operations; First, the awareness of the kindness of employees of the college lifelong education institute needs to be strengthened at the beginning of the school year. Second, in the operation of the College Lifelong Education Center, the support such as the parking fee should be extended to the students. Third, lifelong education facilities should be supplemented. In terms of participation motivation; First, it can be seen that there are the most learners who want to do complementary learning. Most of them are people who look back on their lives and prepare for their future directions. Second, as the life span of human beings became longer, the economic preparation for life became necessary. Thus, all learning tends to be perceived as a preparation for economic income. Third, most people who participate in lifelong education are very interested in health. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the motivation for participation by expanding health related programs. In terms of satisfaction; First, it depends on the purpose of the individual. Satisfaction was high for those who aimed at hobbies and relationships, and satisfaction for those who aimed for economic activities was low. Second, it is also necessary to consider the instructor 's instructional process. In other words, lifelong learners tend to be adults, so little complaints are not revealed. Therefore, I would like to ask the lecturers to advance the education for the class. The implications for the improvement direction of the lifelong education center are as follows; First, we need to drastically reduce the number of programs overlapping with other universities and conduct research to develop new programs. In order to do this, it is necessary to continuously carry out a survey of demanders' needs. Second, it is necessary to find the appropriate place for program operation considering the movement distance of learners. It should be avoided that the program should be operated with the existing university facilities. Third, universities' lifelong education should go to education that includes college students.