• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제11권2호
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• pp.211-234
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• 2016

A total of 99 full-scale field load tests at 22 sites were compiled for this study to elucidate several issues related to the load-displacement behaviour of belled piers under axial uplift loading, including (1) interpretation criteria to define various elastic, inelastic, and "failure" states for each load test from the load-displacement curve; (2) generalized correlations among these states and determinations to the predicted ultimate uplift resistances; (3) uncertainty in the resistance model factor statistics required for reliability-based ultimate limit state (ULS) design; (4) uncertainty associated with the normalized load-displacement curves and the resulting model factor statistics required for reliability-based serviceability limit state (SLS) design; and (5) variations of the combined ULS and SLS model factor statistics for reliability-based limit state designs. The approaches discussed in this study are practical and grounded realistically on the load tests of belled piers with minimal assumptions. The results on the characterization and uncertainty of uplift load-displacement behaviour of belled piers could be served as to extend the early contributions for reliability-based ULS and SLS designs.

• International Journal of Precision Engineering and Manufacturing
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.19-25
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• 2004

Pitch measurements of 150 nm one-dimensional grating standards were carried out using a contact mode atomic force microscopy with a high resolution three-axis laser interferometer. This measurement technique was named as the 'nano-metrological AFM'. In the nano-metrological AFM, three laser interferometers were aligned precisely to the end of an AFM tip. Laser sources of the three-axis laser interferometer in the nano-metrological AFM were calibrated with an I$_2$ stabilized He-Ne laser at a wavelength of 633 nm. Therefore, the Abbe error was minimized and the result of the pitch measurement using the nano-metrological AFM could be used to directly measure the length standard. The uncertainty in the pitch measurement was estimated in accordance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM). The primary source of uncertainty in the pitch-measurements was derived from the repeatability of the pitch-measurements, and its value was about 0.186 nm. The average pitch value was 146.65 nm and the combined standard uncertainty was less than 0.262 nm. It is suggested that the metrological AFM is a useful tool for the nano-metrological standard calibration.

• 식품과학과 산업
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• 제40권1호
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• pp.27-35
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• 2007

측정불확도란 시험결과에 대하여 측정량을 합리적으로 추정한 값들의 분산 특성을 나타내는 파라미터(parameter)로써 ILAC(국제시험소인정협력체) 등의 국제기구와의 측정결과에 대한상호인정 및 신뢰성 확보에 필수적인 요소이다. 국제표준(ISO/IEC 17025)에 맞는 시험분석 결과의 도출을 위해서는 먼저 소급성을 유지하고 그에 따른 불확도를 산출하여야 한다. 소급성은 실험의 모든 과정에 불확도를 가지고 끊기지 않는 비교연결을 통한 국제(국가)표준과 연관시키는 시스템으로, sampling에서 측정결과의 도출까지 소급성을 유지하는 것만이 측정결과의 신뢰성(정확 및 정밀)을 유지하는 최상의 시스템이다. Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements(GUM)에 의한 불확도 계산 절차는 측정량(measurand)의 함수 표현, 입력량의 표준불확도(standard uncertainty)의 계산(표준편차, 평균의 표준편차), 합성표준불확도(combined uncertainty)의 계산, 확장불확도(expanded uncertainty)의 계산을 통한 통계적 추정을 하는 것이다. 오렌지 쥬스 중 카드뮴을 분석함에 있어서, 실험실에 대해서는 국제표준화(ISO17025) 시스템을 도입하고 분석시약 및 기기에 대하여 소급성을 유지하여, 분석결과의 신뢰성을 확보하기 위한 측정불확도를 산출하였다.

• 한국식품과학회지
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• 제37권3호
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• pp.352-359
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• 2005

인도페놀 적정법을 이용하여 성장기용 조제식 중 비타민 C 함량을 측정하는 과정 중의 측정불확도를 추정하기 위하여 분석결과에 영향을 주는 인자들을 파악하고 각각의 불확도를 산출하였으며, 불확도의 계산은 GUM(Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement)과 Draft EURACHEM CITAC Guide에 근거한 수학적 계산 및 통계처리 방법에 의해 처리하였다. 인도페놀 적정법에 의한 비타민 C 함량 측정시 measurand상의 uncertainty source로서 표준품 순도, 표준품 무게, 표준품 최종전량, 적정에 사용된 표준용액 부피, 인도페놀 용액에 의한 표준용액 적정, 시료의 무게, 시료의 최종전량, 적정에 사용된 시험용액, 인도페놀 용액에 의한 시험용액 적정 등이 작용하였으며, uncertainty source에 영향을 주는 세부인자인 uncertainty parameter로서는 저울의 안정성, 분해능, 재현성, 1 mL 피펫, 5 mL마이크로피펫, 100 mL 메스플라스크의 눈금읽기, 내부교정 등이 작용하였다. 소급성 유지를 위해 비타민 C 함량과 측정불확도가 보장된 인증표준물질인 Infant Formula SRM 1846을 사용하여 비타민 C 함량을 측정한 결과값은 $108.4{\pm}1.7mg/100g$로 인증값인 비타민 C 함량 $114.6{\pm}6.6mg/100g$의 범위내로 측정되었으며, CRM에서 보장된 균일성과 실험오차를 고려하면 유사한 결과가 산출되었음을 알 수 있다(p<0.05). 이와 같은 소급성 검증 후 시중에 유통 중인 성장기용조제식의 비타민 C 함량을 분석하기 위하여 시료량을 달리 하여 측정불확도를 계산한 결과, 본 연구에서는 시료를 최소한 5g은 취해야 결과값 및 측정불확도가 $56.7{\pm}2.44mg/100g$으로서 5%이하로 측정불확도를 유 지할 수 있었다. 이와 같이 측정불확도를 고려하여 서로 상이한 분석방법간의 신뢰성을 비교 검증하여야 하며, 획일적으로 단순히 적정법과 HPLC법을 비교해서는 다소 무리가 있을 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에서와 같이 측정불확도를 고려하여 분석에 영향을 줄 수 있는 요인들을 최소화한다면 HPLC와 같은 고가의 정밀분석기기를 구비하지 못한 실험실에서도 인도페놀 적정법에 의한 비타민 C 분석방법을 이용하여 신뢰성있는 측정결과를 얻을 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국복합재료학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국복합재료학회 2001년도 추계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.70-73
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• 2001

The layup optimization by genetic algorithm (GA) for the interlaminar strength of laminated composites with free edge is presented. For the calculation of interlaminar stresses of composite laminates with free edges, extended Kantorovich method is applied. In the formulation of GA, repair strategy is adopted for the satisfaction of given constraints. In order to consider the bounded uncertainty of material properties, convex modeling is used. Results of GA optimization with scattered properties are compared with those of optimization with nominal properties. The GA combined with convex modeling can work as a practical tool for maximum interlaminar strength design of laminated composite structures, since uncertainties are always encountered in composite materials and the optimal results can be changed.

• 한국콘크리트학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국콘크리트학회 2001년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.803-808
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• 2001

Mathematical basis of interpretation of data from nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods in bridge inspection is presented. In bridge inspection with NDE methods, NDE data are not assessments. NDE data must be interpreted as condition of element. Interpretation is then assessment. Correct assessments of conditions of bridge elements depend on the accuracy and variability in test data as well as on the uncertainty of correlations between attributes (what is measured) and conditions (what is sought in the inspection). Inaccuracy and variability in test data defines the qualify or NDE test. The qualify or test itself is important, but in view of condition assessment, the significance of uncertainty in correlations of attributes and conditions must be combined. NDE methods that are accurate in their measurements may still be found to be poor methods if attributes are uncertain indicators of condition of bridge elements. This paper reports mathematical presentation of inaccuracy and variability in test data and of uncertainty in correlation of attributes to element conditions with three examples of NDE methods.

• 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한전기학회 2008년도 제39회 하계학술대회
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• pp.111-112
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• 2008

Although two types of uncertainty such as randomness and fuzziness simultaneously exist in power systems, yet they have been treated as distinct fields to evaluate the power system reliability. Thus, this paper presents a reliability assessment method based on a combined concept of fuzzy and probability. To reflect the two-fold uncertainty, a modified load duration curve(MLDC) is proposed using the probability distribution of historical load data in which a fuzzy model for the peak load forecast is embedded. IEEE RTS system was used to demonstrate the usefulness and applicability of the proposed method, and the reliability indices were obtained using the proposed MLDC. The results show a wider insight into impact of load fuzziness on uncertainties of reliability indices for power systems.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권4호
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• pp.83-92
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• 2022

Due to the uncertainty in the order of the integrated model, the SARIMA-LSTM model, SARIMA-SVR model, LSTM-SARIMA model, and SVR-SARIMA model are constructed respectively to determine the best-combined model for forecasting the China-Russia trade turnover. Meanwhile, the effect of the order of the combined models on the prediction results is analyzed. Using indicators such as MAPE and RMSE, we compare and evaluate the predictive effects of different models. The results show that the SARIMA-LSTM model combines the SARIMA model's short-term forecasting advantage with the LSTM model's long-term forecasting advantage, which has the highest forecast accuracy of all models and can accurately predict the trend of China-Russia trade turnover in the post-epidemic period. Furthermore, the SARIMA - LSTM model has a higher forecast accuracy than the LSTM-ARIMA model. Nevertheless, the SARIMA-SVR model's forecast accuracy is lower than the SVR-SARIMA model's. As a result, the combined models' order has no bearing on the predicting outcomes for the China-Russia trade turnover time series.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제49권4호
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• pp.13-22
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• 2007

The uncertainty in water quality model predictions is inevitably high due to natural stochasticity, model uncertainty, and parameter uncertainty. An integrated modeling system under uncertainty was described and demonstrated for use in watershed management and receiving-water quality prediction. A watershed model (HSPF), a receiving water quality model (WASP), and a wetland model (NPS-WET) were incorporated into an integrated modeling system (modified-BASINS) and applied to the Hwaseong Reservoir watershed. Reservoir water quality was predicted using the calibrated integrated modeling system, and the deterministic integrated modeling output was useful for estimating mean water quality given future watershed conditions and assessing the spatial distribution of pollutant loads. A Monte Carlo simulation was used to investigate the effect of various uncertainties on output prediction. Without pollution control measures in the watershed, the concentrations of total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorous (T-P) in the Hwaseong Reservoir, considering uncertainty, would be less than about 4.8 and 0.26 mg 4.8 and 0.26 mg $L^{-1}$, respectively, with 95% confidence. The effects of two watershed management practices, a wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) and a constructed wetland (WETLAND), were evaluated. The combined scenario (WWTP + WETLAND) was the most effective at improving reservoir water quality, bringing concentrations of T-N and T-P in the Hwaseong Reservoir to less than 3.54 and 0.15 mg ${L^{-1}$, 26.7 and 42.9% improvements, respectively, with 95% confidence. Overall, the Monte Carlo simulation in the integrated modeling system was practical for estimating uncertainty and reliable in water quality prediction. The approach described here may allow decisions to be made based on probability and level of risk, and its application is recommended.

• 센서학회지
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• 제13권2호
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• pp.114-120
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• 2004

The $Comet{\acute{e}}$ Consultatif de $Thermom{\acute{e}}trie$ (CCT) under the Comete International des Poids et Measures (CIPM) has decided to perform the Key Comparison (KC) for triple point of water cells used as a reference fixed point of thermometry at the 21st meeting held at November 2001, and the Bureau International des Poids et Measures (BIPM) has been nominated as a KC coordinator. According to the KC protocol prepared by BIPM, KRISS performed the KC experiments and evaluate a uncertainty. The temperature difference between two reference cells for the Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science (KRISS) and a test cell for the transfer standard, which is moved to BIPM was 0.024 mK and the combined standard uncertainty evaluated 0.055 mK.