• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.11
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• pp.127-135
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• 2020

This study aims to measure the effects of real interest rate (RIR), gross domestic savings (GDS), and net exports (EN) shocks on Indonesia's economic growth (EG). The focus on Indonesia is unique due to the abundant resources available in the nation, but they are unsuccessful in boosting economic growth. This study applied a quantitative method to comprehensively analyze the correlation between variables by employing Vector Autoregression Model (VAR) combined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Various procedures are preformed: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF), Optimum Lag Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test, as well as Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Error Variance Decomposition Analysis (FEVD). The data were collected from the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank from 1986 to 2017. The findings of the study indicated that economic growth responded positively to real interest rate shocks, which implies that when the real interest rate experiences a shock (increase), the economy will be inclined to growth. While, economic growth responded negatively to gross domestic savings and net export shocks. Policymakers are expected to consider several matters, particularly the economic conditions at the time of formulating policy, so that the prediction effectiveness of a policy can be appropriately assessed.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.13 no.10
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• pp.4506-4513
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• 2012

The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality of electricity consumption and econmic growth and draw policy implications. To do this, we used Testing Prodedures of Unit Root and Cointegration and then VECM and Granger causality test using data taken from China over the period 1971 to 2008. As results, there are long and short term causalities between electricity consumption and economic growth of China. These results provide a few implications to policy analysts in China. First it is still available that the electricity comes before the economic development. The increase of electricity consumption promotes economic growth. Of course there are other factors to the economic growth, but the stable supply of electricity is necessary. Second, this paper confirms the assertion that the increase of GDP expands electric consumption is valid.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.473-496
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• 2014

This paper intends to test the non-linear relationship between $CO_2$ emissions and income by employing cointegration model of the time-varying income elasticity. We select France, UK, Italy, Japan, US, China, India, Mexico and Korea and use non-parametric time series analysis on each country in order to estimate its own effect of income on $CO_2$ emission. The main results indicate that the $CO_2$ emission-income elasticities vary over time and the income elasticities of the Annex I countries tend to be higher in absolute terms than those of developing countries. In addition, we find that emission-income elasticities decrease for Annex I countries over time, whereas those for developing countries increase.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.125-162
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• 2003

This paper investigates the short- and long- run relationship among Korean, U.S. and Japanese construction indices. We conducted the Johansen's cointegration tests on the hypotheses that the construction indices of three countries we related in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The test results show that there exists no long-run relationship among three countrie's construction indices. In addition, the cointegrating relation did not exist for three countrie's stock market indices and five major Korean construction firms. It fumed out that the U.S. indices Granger-causes Japanese and Korean indices. This finding implies that there may exist international diversification benefit through forming a portfolio from these indices.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.151-162
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• 2019

The paper examines the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the economic growth of Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) between 1993 and 2015. The investigation is based on the influence of growth and economic absorptive capability determinants such as human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality. The methodological analysis uses a multivariate framework accounting capital stock, labor stock, FDI, human capital, trade openness, and institutional quality in regression of the Vector Autoregressive model. Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality test were applied as parts of the econometric time-series analysis approach. The empirical results demonstrate the positive effects of FDI and trade openness, and the negative effects of human capital and institutional quality on the economic growth of the Lao PDR over the 1993 to 2015 period. The findings confirm that trade openness complemented by a sufficient level of infrastructure, education, quality institutions, and transparency significantly influence economic growth and attract more FDI. Research results lend credence to the need for the Lao PDR's government to focus on improving its economic absorptive capability and economic competitiveness regionally and globally by improving wealth and resource management strategies, as failure to take this course of action could lead to the Dutch Disease effects.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.219-228
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• 2020

The study investigates the impact of inflation rate on economic growth to find the best-fit model for economic growth in Vietnam. The study applied Vector Autoregressive (VAR), cointegration models, and unit root test for the time-series data from 1996 to 2018 to test the inflation impact on the economic growth in the short and long term. The study showed that the two variables are stationary at lag first difference I(1) with 1%, 5% and 10%; trace test indicates two cointegrating equations at the 0.05 level, the INF does not granger cause GDP, the optimal lag I(1) and the variables are closely related as R2 is 72%. It finds that the VAR model's results are the basis to perform economic growth; besides, the inflation rate is positively related to economic growth. The results support the monetary policy. This study identifies issues for Government to consider: have a comprehensive solution among macroeconomic policies, monetary policy, fiscal policy and other policies to control and maintain the inflation and stimulate growth; set a priority goal for sustainable economic growth; not pursue economic growth by maintaining the inflation rate in the long term, but take appropriate measures to stabilize the inflation at the best-fitted VAR forecast model.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.31-49
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• 2015

This study examines whether or not the South Korean major fishery product import markets; Frozen Pollock, Frozen Long Arm Octopus, and Frozen Hairtail are integrated. We are utilizing the Multivariate and Bivariate Johansen Co-integration test to see if the law of one price(LOP) holds in each market or not. The empirical results show that even though import prices from different countries affect each other in each South Korean major fishery product import market, there is no evidence of LOP in any fishery product import market, which means that none of the markets are integrated. Based on these results, we could expect that the three major fishery product import markets show monopolistic competition among import countries. we would also see whether or not any country plays the role of a price leader in any of the markets. Based on weak exogeneity test results, we might expect that the United States and Malaysia are price leaders in the South Korean Frozen Pollock Import Market and Frozen Long Arm Octopus Import Market, respectively; however, we need to study more on this in the future.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.63-73
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• 2019

The paper aims to investigate relationships between technology and innovation management, total factor productivity and economic growth in China. By comparing the trends in total factor productivity growth of industrialized economies (i.e. OECD), this study intends to showcase the importance of total factor productivity progress in the Chinese economy. The study employs time series data of an annual basis for the period from 1977 to 2016 retrieved from the World Development Indicator. The study employs unit root test, cointegration test, fully modified least squares estimation method, canonical cointegrating regression and dynamic least squares estimation method to test the hypotheses. The results of the cointegrating regression analysis show that manufacturing growth leads to an increase of total factor productivity in the short-run in China. The findings of the study suggest that manufacturing (i.e. technology and product innovation) is positively related to the increase of total factor productivity in the short-run and total output growth in the long-run. The findings suggest that promoting technology and innovation management and supporting R&D subsidies may reduce the marginal cost of conducting R&D and increase the rate of technology and innovation management and R&D activity and therefore, the total factor productivity growth rate.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.77-88
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• 2021

The stock markets in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries are the leading emerging markets globally. Therefore, it is pertinent to ascertain the critical drivers of stock market development in these economies. The currrent study empirically investigates to identify the linkages between stock market development, key macro-economic factors and institutional factors in the BRICS economies. The study covers the time period from 2000 to 2017. The dependent variable is the country's stock market development and the independent variables consist of six macroeconomic variables and five institutional variables. The study employs a panel cointegration test, Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS), a Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach and a heterogeneous panel non-causality test.The findings of the study indicate co-integration among the selected variables across the BRICS stock markets. Long-run estimations reveal that five macroeconomic variables and four variables related to institutional quality are positive and statistically significant. Further, short-run causalities between stock market capitalization and selected variables are detected through the test of non-causality in a heterogeneous panel setting. The findings suggest that policymakers in the BRICS countries should enhance robust macroeconomic conditions to support their financial markets and should strengthen the institutional quality drivers to stimulate the pace of stock market development in their countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.4
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• pp.653-663
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• 2021

There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn't have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.