• 보건행정학회지
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.378-391
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• 2018

Background: People who were born in different years, that is, different birth cohorts, grow in varying socio-historical and dynamic contexts, which result in differences in social dispositions and physical abilities. Methods: This study used age-period-cohort analysis method to establish explanatory models on healthcare expenditure in Korea reflecting birth cohort factor using intrinsic estimator. Based on these models, we tried to investigate the effects of ageing population on future healthcare expenditure through simulation by scenarios. Results: Coefficient of cohort effect was not as high as that of age effect, but greater than that of period effect. The cohort effect can be interpreted to show 'healthy ageing' phenomenon. Healthy ageing effect shows annual average decrease of -1.74% to 1.57% in healthcare expenditure. Controlling age, period, and birth cohort effects, pure demographic effect of population ageing due to increase in life expectancy shows annual average increase of 1.61%-1.80% in healthcare expenditure. Conclusion: First, since the influence of population factor itself on healthcare expenditure increase is not as big as expected. Second, 'healthy ageing effect' suggests that there is a need of paradigm shift to prevention centered-healthcare services. Third, forecasting of health expenditure needs to reflect social change factors by considering birth cohort effect.

• 한국노년학
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.1413-1425
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• 2009

본 연구는 서울 및 춘천지역 거주 중·고령자를 대상으로 부양책임감이 나이와 세대에 따라 어떻게 변화하고 있는지 분석하였다. 본 연구는 4차에 걸쳐 진행된 한림고령자패널 자료를 대상으로 램덤상수모델을 통해 세대 효과와 연령효과를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서는 실바흐(Sealbach)가 개발한 부양책임감 척도를 사용하였으며, 출생연도 1940년을 기준으로 이전 세대는 식민지·전쟁경험세대로, 이후세대는 산업화 민주화 세대로 구분하였다. 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 식민지·전쟁경험세대는 산업화·민주화 세대에 비해 부양책임감이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 연령효과를 살펴보면 일반적인 예상과는 달리 나이와 부양책임감 사이에는 통계적으로 유의미한 결과를 보이지 않는다. 서구의 연구는 노인부양의 어려움에 대한 인식이나 타인을 부양해야 한다는 의무감의 종료 등으로 인해 나아가 많은 노인일수록 부양책임감이 감소한다는 연구 결과를 제시하고 있는데, 이러한 측면이 우리나라에서는 적용되지 않는 것으로 보인다. 첫째와 둘째 결과에 비추어 볼 때 노인층이 장년층에 비해 부양책임감이 높은 것은 연령효과라기 보다는 세대효과일 가능성이 크다. 셋째, 남성이 여성에 비해, 서울이 춘천에 비해, 면지역 거주자가 동지역 거주자에 비해 부양책임감이 높은 것으로 나타났고, 주관적 건강 상태가 좋을수록, 학력 및 소득이 높을수록 부양책임감은 낮아지는 것으로 나타나고 있다.

• 한국지역지리학회지
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.75-95
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• 2011

이 연구는 생애주기에 따른 주거이동 모형의 횡단면적 접근과 분석이 가지는 한계의 대안으로서 출생코호트 접근을 하였다. 1970년부터 2005년까지 진주시를 사례로 5세 연령 간격으로 출생코호트를 구분하고 각각의 주거이동을 탐색하고 비교하였다. 그리고 주거수요로서 인구변천과 출산력, 주거공급으로서 주택재고와 주거지역 입지 등 변화도 함께 살펴보았다. 그 결과 모형이 강조하고 있는 연령효과 이외에도 코호트효과와 기간효과가 확인되며, 이로 인해 각 출생코호트의 주거이동 궤적에 차이가 있었다. 한편 모형이 제시하고 있는 것과는 달리 가구주의 연령이 증가하면서 연령효과가 감소하였고 이동은 감소, 안정되었다. 이에 대한 해석은 출생코호트 간의 주거승계가 미약하거나 단절되고 있고, 결과적으로 연령집단이 주거를 서로 달리하는 가족지위보다 출생코호트를 주거분화 요인 중 하나로 제시할 수 있다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제45권5호
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• pp.323-328
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• 2012

Objectives: Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. Methods: We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. Results: All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. Conclusions: The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

• 동아시아경상학회지
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.26-47
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• 2014

The paper examined effect of age cohort on life cycle financial planning. A total of 990 questionnaires were distributed with a 55.2% return rate. Seven hypotheses were analysed using hierarchical and ordinary regression analysis. The results revealed that age cohort variables made significant contribution to life cycle financial planning as well as personal orientation towards retirement planning, particularly the younger age cohort. Age cohorts do affect personal orientation towards retirement planning with the confidence level making a significant impact. Current financial resources do have a strong positive impact on consumption for all age cohorts. On the other hand, no significant effect was found between age cohorts and current financial resources but older age cohorts were relatively more significant predictors. The implication was that not only should their individual perceptions of financial planning become an increasingly important part of people's long-term commitment throughout their life-cycle, it must also assume the role as a self-directed life-long learning process, in view of the ever-changing and complicated financial environment.

• 한국식품영양학회지
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• 제33권1호
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• pp.98-104
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• 2020

The purpose of this study was to analyze a cohort, age, and time effects on sodium and sodium-calorie intake using the 2007~2017 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). For analysis, we have constructed cohort panel data that combine KNHANES data in a time series. The age effect gradually increased from age 45~49 and then decreased afterwards. The time effect showed an increase in average sodium intake until 2010 followed by a subsequent decrease. The cohort effect showed that the sodium intake was the highest for the War of Liberation 1946~1953, and that the younger the latter, the lower the sodium intake. According to a cohort analysis, the younger the generation, the lower the sodium intake compared to the calorie intake, according to the baby boomers. Based on the results of this study, efforts should be made to educate and promote the dieting and providing low-salt meals to reduce sodium intake by generation. An analysis of the health hazards including sodium by generation and age is thought to enable the establishment relevant policies.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.703-719
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• 2015

본 논문은 평균회귀 2요인 사망률 모형에 코호트 효과를 반영한 개선된 확률론적 사망률 모형을 제시한다. 한국 남자의 사망률 자료를 바탕으로 가중평균최소제곱법과 메트로폴리스 알고리듬을 이용하여 사망률 모형을 추정한 결과 코호트 효과를 반영하는 것이 모형 적합도를 향상시킴을 발견하였다. 국민연금공단과 같은 연금사업자가 자신의 장수위험을 금융시장에 순차적으로 전가하는 수단으로서 옵션방식 이자지급 장수채권의 활용을 제안하고 발행채권의 가격 산출방법을 제시하는 것이 본 논문이 기여하는 점이다. 특히 생존지수에 의해 이자지급 현금흐름이 결정되는 장수채권 가격산출을 위하여 코호트 효과가 매우 중요한 요소임을 강조하였다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제48권6호
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• pp.280-286
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• 2015

Objectives: Approximately 10% to 15% of lung cancer cases occur in never-smokers. Hormonal factors have been suggested to lead to an elevated risk of lung cancer in women. This systematic review (SR) aimed to investigate the association between hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) and the risk of lung cancer in women using cohort studies. Methods: We first obtained previous SR articles on this topic. Based on these studies we made a list of refereed, cited, and related articles using the PubMed and Scopus databases. All cohort studies that evaluated the relative risk of HRT exposure on lung cancer occurrence in women were selected. Estimate of summary effect size (sES) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Results: A total of 14 cohort studies were finally selected. A random effect model was applied due to heterogeneity (I-squared, 64.3%). The sES of the 14 articles evaluating the impact of HRT exposure on lung cancer occurrence in women indicated no statistically significant increase in lung cancer risk (sES, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.90 to 1.09). Conclusions: These results showed that HRT history had no effect on the risk of lung cancer in women, even though the sES of case-control studies described in previous SR articles indicated that HRT had a protective effect against lung cancer. It is necessary to conduct a pooled analysis of cohort studies.

• 한국인구학
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• 제31권1호
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• pp.75-97
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• 2008

최근 우리나라는 고령화가 급속도로 진전되면서 향후 생산가능인구의 감소와 더불어 인구구조, 특히 연령구조(age structure) 또한 급격한 변화를 겪을 것으로 예상되고 있다. 이에 본 연구는 이러한 인구구조의 변화가 임금구조에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위해 연령별 세대규모(cohort size)에 초점을 맞추어 세대규모효과로 인해 연령-임금 프로파일이 어떻게 변모하였는지를 분석하였다. 실증분석은 Wright(1991)의 모형을 기초로 노동부의 '임금구조기본통계조사' 원자료($1990년{\sim}2006$년)의 남성 근로자 데이터를 활용한 Weighted OLS 회귀분석으로 이루어졌다. 추정결과에서는 고졸 근로자 및 대졸이상 고학력 근로자에게서 세대규모효과가 발견되었는데, 고졸 근로자의 경우 기존 Welch(1979)나 Wright(1991)의 연구와 유사한 결과가 나타났지만, 대졸이상 근로자의 경우 반대로 정(+)의 신규진입효과와 부(-)의 지속효과가 나타났다. 따라서 고졸 근로자는 임금수준에서 세대규모로 인한 불이익을 받는 반면, 고학력 취업자의 경우 최근 청년실업 및 취업난의 상황에도 불구하고 상대적으로 작은 세대규모로 인해 임금수준에서 이득을 보고 있다는 것을 보여주고 있다. 이는 기존의 연구가 주로 노동수요 측면에 치우쳐 있다는 점에서 노동공급측면에서 인구 고령화에 따른 인구구조의 변화에 관심을 둔 연구가 필요하다는 것을 시사한다.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• 제53권3호
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• pp.198-204
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• 2020

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. Results: The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. Conclusions: The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.