• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.7-14
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• 2019

In South Korea, six large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) have occurred since the first confirmation in 2003 from chickens. For the past 15 years, HPAI outbreaks have become an annual phenomenon throughout the country and has extended to wider regions, across rural and urban environments. An understanding of the spatial epidemiology of HPAI occurrence is essential in assessing and managing the risk of the infection; however, local spatial variations of relationship between HPAI incidences in Korea and related risk factors have rarely been derived. This study examined whether spatial heterogeneity exists in this relationship, using a geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) model. The outcome variable was the number of HPAI-positive farms at 252 Si-Gun-Gu (administrative boundaries in Korea) level notified to government authority during the period from January 2014 to April 2016. This response variable was regressed to a set of sociodemographic and topographic predictors, including the number of wild birds infected with HPAI virus, the number of wintering birds and their species migrated into Korea, the movement frequency of vehicles carrying animals, the volume of manure treated per day, the number of livestock farms, and mean elevation. Both global and local modeling techniques were employed to fit the model. From 2014 to 2016, a total of 403 HPAI-positive farms were reported with high incidence especially in western coastal regions, ranging from 0 to 74. The results of this study show that local model (adjusted R-square = 0.801, AIC = 954.5) has great advantages over corresponding global model (adjusted R-square = 0.408, AIC = 2323.1) in terms of model fitting and performance. The relationship between HPAI incidence in Korea and seven predictors under consideration were significantly spatially non-stationary, contrary to assumptions in the global model. The comparison between global Poisson and GWPR results indicated that a place-specific spatial analysis not only fit the data better, but also provided insights into understanding the non-stationarity of the associations between the HPAI and associated determinants. We demonstrated that an empirically derived GWPR model has the potential to serve as a useful tool for assessing spatially varying characteristics of HPAI incidences for a given local area and predicting the risk area of HPAI occurrence. Considering the prominent burden of HPAI this study provides more insights into spatial targeting of enhanced surveillance and control strategies in high-risk regions against HPAI outbreaks.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.22 no.7
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• pp.846-853
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• 2016

This study prioritizes Noxious Liquid Substances (NLS) transported by sea via a risk-based database containing 596 chemicals to prepare against NLS incidents. There were 158 chemicals transported in Korean waters during 2014 and 2015, which were prioritized, and then chemicals were grouped into four categories (with rankings of 0-3) based on measures for preparedness against incident. In order to establish an effective preparedness system against NLS spill incidents on a national scale, a compiling process for NLS chemicals ranked 2~3 should be carried out and managed together with an initiative for NLS chemicals ranked 0-1. Also, it is advisable to manage NLS chemicals ranked 0-1 after considering the characteristics of NLS specifically transported through a given port since the types and characteristics of NLS chemicals relevant differ depending on the port. In addition, three designated regions are suggested: 1) the southern sector of the East Sea (Ulsan and Busan); 2) the central sector of the South Sea (Gwangyang and Yeosu); and 3) the northern sector of the West Sea (Pyeongtaek, Daesan and Incheon). These regions should be considered special management sectors, with strengthened surveillance and the equipment, materials and chemicals used for pollution response management schemes prepared in advance at NLS spill incident response facilities. In the near future, the risk database should be supplemented with specific information on chronic toxicity and updated on a regular basis. Furthermore, scientific ecotoxicological data for marine organisms should be collated and expanded in a systematic way. A system allowing for the identification Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS) should also be established, noting the relevant volumes transported in Korean waters as soon as possible to allow for better management of HNS spill incidents at sea.