• Title/Summary/Keyword: Co-integration Relationship

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Unemployment and Shadow Economy in ASEAN Countries

  • TRAN, Toan Khanh Pham
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.11
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    • pp.41-46
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between unemployment and shadow economy for 7 selected ASEAN countries using panel data from 2000-2017. This study uses a sample of 7 ASEAN countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam covering the 2000-2017 period. The stationarity of the variables is determined by Pesaran panel unit-root tests. The Westerlund panel co-integration technique is used to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. In addition, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) methods are also employed. The DOLS and FMOLS results indicate that unemployment acts as an important driver for the increase in the shadow economy. In addition, the study results also reveal that GDP per capita has a negative impact on the shadow economy. Moreover, government expenditure, bank credit, and inflation are positively related to the shadow economy. The empirical results indicate that the size of the shadow economy is boosted by unemployment in the selected ASEAN economies. In addition, it is also evident that an increase of GDP per capita in the sample countries results in a lower shadow economy. Besides, government expenditure, bank credit, and inflation play a crucial role in the shadow economy.

Causality Analysis of Oil Consumption, Oil-spills, and Economic Growth in Korea (한국의 석유소비, 해양유류유출사고, 경제성장의 인과관계 분석)

  • Jin, Se-Jun;Park, Se-Hun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the causal relationship among oil consumption, oil-tanker accidents, and economic growth, and to derive policy implications from the results. Therefore, this paper attempts to analyze the short term, long term, and strong causality factors pertaining to the relationship between oil consumption, oil-tanker accidents, and economic growth in Korea using time-series techniques and annual data for the 1984-2016 period. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on an error-correction model are presented. The results show that bidirectional causality exists between oil consumption and oil-tanker accidents, between economic growth and oil consumption, and between oil-tanker accidents and economic growth. The study shows that oil was used as a core energy source during the rapid economic growth of Korea in the past, and that this caused the number of oil-tanker accidents to rise as oil consumption increased.

The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment Inflow on Exports: Evidence from Vietnam

  • DO, Duc Anh;SONG, Yinghua;DO, Huu Tung;TRAN, Thi Thu Hien;NGUYEN, Thanh Thuy
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.325-333
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    • 2022
  • Foreign direct investment (FDI) and export are now often regarded as two of the most important drivers of economic growth on a worldwide scale. The impact of foreign direct investment on Vietnam's exports is investigated in this study. The data for the time period 1985-2020 was obtained from the World Bank and the Vietnam General Statistics Office. The years 1985 to 2020 were chosen to evaluate the evolution of macroeconomic parameters since 1986. The impact of the Covid-19 epidemic on renovation reform. The Johansen co-integration test proved that FDI and domestic investment (DI) had a long-term positive impact on Vietnam's export growth. The Granger causality test revealed that there is a one-way relationship between FDI and export in the near term, but no such relationship exists between DI and export. The result of the variance decomposition study demonstrates that the FDI sector has a bigger impact on Vietnam's export growth than the DI sector. Furthermore, export activities are vulnerable to FDI sector shocks. As a result, in recent years, FDI has been regarded as the most important factor of export growth in Vietnam.

정부 R&D 투자와 민간 R&D 투자의 인과관계 분석

  • Yu, Seung-Hun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.175-193
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study is to examine relationship between public R&D investment and private R&D investment in Korea, and to obtain policy implications of the results. To this end, the author attempts to provide more careful consideration of the causality issues by applying rigorous techniques of Granger causality. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger causality based on an error-correction model are presented. The existence of bi-directional causality between public R&D investment and private R&D investment is detected. This finding has various implications for policy analysts and forecasters. Increasing private R&D investment requires enormous public R&D investment, though there are many other factors contributing to private R&D investment, and public R&D investment is but one part of it. Thus, this study generates confidence in decisions to invest in public R&D. Moreover, this study lends support to the argument that increase in private R&D investment, ceteris paribus, gives rise to public R&D investment. Increase in private R&D investment results in greater national income to be spent on R&D investment and stimulates further public R&D investment.

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Can Properly Raised Debts Help Increase the Profits of Industrial Enterprises?

  • Zhang, Cheng;Song, Li-Yuan
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.920-930
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    • 2019
  • To figure out the impact of debt financing on the profits of industrial enterprises, it starts with calculating the first differences against the logarithms of the cost profit ratios and the debt asset ratios of Chinese industrial enterprises during 179 months from 2002 to 2016; next, it runs the cointegration test and afterwards the regression test to analyze the obtained first differences, and still next uses the Simulink software to get the regularity of those changes. It finds out that there is not only a long-term stable relationship between the enterprises' profits and debts, but also a steady time series trend within a short term. The profit rate positively correlates to the debt asset ratio, and profit for the current term positively correlates to the profit for the previous term. It indicates that properly raised debts can help increase the profit rate of the industrial enterprises, and a higher previous profit level can help improve the current profit level.

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population: An evidence from Rwanda

  • Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel;Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.116-124
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    • 2017
  • The study makes an attempt to investigate the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population with an evidence from Rwanda by employing a time series data spanning from 1965 to 2011 using the autoregressive distributed lag model. Evidence from the study shows that carbon dioxide emissions, GDP per capita, industrialization and population are co-integrated and have a long-run equilibrium relationship. Evidence from the Granger-causality shows a unidirectional causality running from industrialization to GDP per capita, population to carbon dioxide emissions, population to GDP per capita and population to industrialization. Evidence from the long-run elasticities has policy implications for Rwanda; a 1% increase in GDP per capita will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 1.45%, while a 1% increase in industrialization will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.64% in the long-run. Increasing economic growth in Rwanda will therefore reduce environmental pollution in the long-run which appears to support the validity of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. However, industrialization leads to more emissions of carbon dioxide, which reduces environment, health and air quality. It is noteworthy that the Rwandan Government promotes sustainable industrialization, which improves the use of clean and environmentally sound raw materials, industrial process and technologies.

Receipt Area and Regional Types of Delivery in Agricultural Products Physical Distribution Center : A Case Study on Agricultural Products Physical Distribution Center of Cheongju Agricultural Co-operation (농산물 물류센터의 입하지와 배송의 지역유형 - 농협 청주 농산물 물류센터를 사례로 -)

  • 김선희;한주성
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.104-126
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    • 2003
  • This study found that was done to find the commercial and physical distribution system of the agricultural physical distribution center of the agricultural co-operation and considers the receipt region of agricultural, livestock and marine products of the agricultural physical distribution center established for the efficiency and integration of physical distribution by season. And this study clarified the relationship between regional characteristics and regional types of distribution in accordance with the sales of each product. According to the research, the agricultural physical distribution center of Cheongju agricultural co-operation receives agricultural, livestock and marine products from all over the country as the core region in Chungcheongbuk-do and deliveries mainly to some regions in Chungcheongbuk-do, Chungcheongnam-do and Daejeon city. That's e agricultural, livestock and marine products that the agricultural physical distribution center of the agricultural co-operation deals with the required freshness. Therefore, the physical distribution center forms the regional physical distribution system to mainly receive products from the regions where are relatively near the center and to delivery to the nearby region. This delivery of agricultural, livestock and marine product significantly influences the sales strategy as well as the economic principles of demand and supply.

A Study on the relationship analysis between the K-REITs loaning rate and interest rate variables (K-REITs의 차입이자율과 금리 변수 간 관계 분석)

  • Kim, Sang-Jin;Lee, Joo-Hyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.6
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    • pp.676-686
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    • 2016
  • This study analyzed the long term relationship between the K-REITs' lending rate and interest rate variables based on ARDL (autoregressive distributed lag) and also examined the short term relationship based on the ARDL-ECM model. In the results of the empirical test, there is a co-integration relationship among the K-REITs' lending rate, 3 year government bond (rate), 3 year government bond (rate), corporation bond (rate) (AA-, 3year) and general fund loan rate. This means that the K-REITs' lending rate is related to the long term interest rate. The corporate general fund loan rate has a significant correlation with the K-REITs' lending rate in the long term relation and short term adjustment process. The establishment of a management plan by the REITs considering the trends in the corporate general fund loan rate in the decision making process for finance sector borrowings can be practically helpful for the K-REITs.

Radiation Exposure and Cancer Mortality Among Nuclear Power Plant Workers: a Meta-analysis (원전종사자의 방사선 노출과 암사망 위험도와의 관련성에 대한 메타분석)

  • Park, Eun-Sook;Moon, Ki-Eun;Kim, Han-Na;Lee, Won-Jin;Jin, Young-Woo
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.185-192
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    • 2010
  • Objectives: We conducted a meta-analysis to investigate the relationship between low external doses of ionizing radiation exposure and the risk of cancer mortality among nuclear power plant workers. Methods: We searched MEDLINE using key words related to low dose and cancer risk. The selected articles were restricted to those written in English from 1990 to January 2009. We excluded those studies with no fit to the selection criteria and we included the cited references in published articles to minimize publication bias. Through this process, a total of 11 epidemiologic studies were finally included. A publication bias was tested for using Egger's test. The homogeneity test was performed before the integration of each of the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and the result proved that the studies were heterogeneous. Results: We found significant decreased deaths from all cancers (SMR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.62 - 0.90), all cancers excluding leukemia, solid cancer, mouth and pharynx, esophagus, stomach, rectum, liver and gallbladder, pancreas, lung, prostate, lymphopoietic and hematopoitic cancer. The findings of this meta-analysis were similar with those of the 15 Country Collaborative Study conducted by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. A publication bias was found only for liver and gallbladder cancer (p = 0.015). Heterogeneity was observed for all cancers, all cancers excluding leukemia, solid cancer, esophagus, colon and lung cancer. Conclusions: Our findings of low mortality for stomach, rectum, liver and gallbladder cancers may explained by the health worker effect. Yet further studies are needed to clarify the low SMR of cancers, for which there is no useful screening tool, in nuclear power plant workers.

An Empirical Study on the long-term Relationship between House Prices and Inflation in the U.S. (주택가격과 물가의 장기관련성에 관한 실증연구 : 미국을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Young Soo
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.246-263
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    • 2010
  • This study examines how the long-run relations between housing price and inflation in the United Sates have changed since the year of 2000. Johansen co-integration test, estimation of long-run equilibrium equation, and Granger causality tests are conducted, based on the VECM. Data covers the period from the first quarter of 1975 to the second quarter of 2010. I adopt the recursive estimation method in which the final period of the estimation is expanded by one quarter, starting from the first quarter of 2000. The empirical results are as follows: (1) In spite of the sharp increase of housing price, the long-run relationship of house prices and inflation has been remained stable until 2007, showing that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. (2) The housing price plunge since 1997 does not seem to be related to the restore of the long-run relationship between housing prices and inflation. (3) Granger causality test results support the hypothesis that inflation granger-causes housing prices with 10% significance level, but reject the hypothesis that housing price granger-causes inflation.