• Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.317-322
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• 2002

Dramatic changes in the patterns of satellite-derived pigment concentrations, sea-level height anomaly, sea surface temperature anomaly, and zonal wind anomaly are observed during the 1997-1998 El Nino. By some measures, the 1997-1998 El Nino was the strongest of the 20$^{th}$ century. A very strong El Nino developed during 1997 and matured late in the year. A dramatic recovery occurred in mid-1998 and led to a La Nina conditions. The largest spatial extent of the phytoplankton bloom was followed recovery from El Nino over the equatorial Pacific. The evolution towards a warm episode (El Nino) continued in the equatorial Pacific from March 2002 and further development toward mature El Nino conditions may be possible in late 2002. The OSMI (Ocean Scanning Multispectral Imager) data can be used for detection of dramatic changes in the patterns of pigment concentration during next El Nino.

• Journal of the korean society of oceanography
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.72-95
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• 2004

The Yellow Sea is characterized by relatively shallow water depth, varying range of tidal action and very complex coastal geometry such as islands, bays, peninsulas, tidal flats, shoals etc. The dynamic system is controlled by tides, regional winds, river discharge, and interaction with the Kuroshio. The circulation, water mass properties and their variability in the Yellow Sea are very complicated and still far from clear understanding. In this study, an effort to improve our understanding the dynamic feature of the Yellow Sea system was conducted using numerical simulation with the ROMS model, applying climatologic forcing such as winds, heat flux and fresh water precipitation. The inter-annual variability of general circulation and thermohaline structure throughout the year has been obtained, which has been compared with observational data sets. The simulated horizontal distribution and vertical cross-sectional structures of temperature and salinity show a good agreement with the observational data indicating significantly the water masses such as Yellow Sea Warm Water, Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water, Changjiang River Diluted Water and other sporadically observed coastal waters around the Yellow Sea. The tidal effects on circulation and dynamic features such as coastal tidal fronts and coastal mixing are predominant in the Yellow Sea. Hence the tidal effects on those dynamic features are dealt in the accompanying paper (Kim et at., 2004). The ROMS model adopts curvilinear grid with horizontal resolution of 35 km and 20 vertical grid spacing confirming to relatively realistic bottom topography. The model was initialized with the LEVITUS climatologic data and forced by the monthly mean air-sea fluxes of momentum, heat and fresh water derived from COADS. On the open boundaries, climatological temperature and salinity are nudged every 20 days for data assimilation to stabilize the modeling implementation. This study demonstrates a Yellow Sea version of Atlantic Basin experiment conducted by Haidvogel et al. (2000) experiment that the ROMS simulates the dynamic variability of temperature, salinity, and velocity fields in the ocean. However the present study has been improved to deal with the large river system, open boundary nudging process and further with combination of the tidal forcing that is a significant feature in the Yellow Sea.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.38 no.1
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• pp.1-19
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• 2016

Recently, there has been a growing interest in physical-biological ocean-modeling systems by communities in the fields of science and business. In this paper, we present preliminary results from a coupled physical-biological model for the Northwestern Pacific marginal seas. The ocean circulation component is an implementation of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), and the lower trophic level ecosystem component is a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton-Detritus (NPZD) model. The ROMS-NPZD coupled system, with a 25 km resolution, is forced by climatological atmospheric data and predicts the physical variables and concentrations of nitrate, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detritus. Model results are compared with remote-sensed sea surface temperature and chlorophyll, and with climatological sea surface salinity and nitrate. Our model adequately reproduces the observed spatial distribution and seasonal variability of nitrate and chlorophyll concentrations as well as physical variables, showing a high correlation in the East Sea (ES) and Kuroshio/Oyashio Extension (KOE) region but relatively low correlation in the Yellow Sea (YS) and East China Sea (ECS). Although some deficiencies were found in the biological components, such as the over/underestimation of the intensity of phytoplankton blooms in the ES and KOE/the YS and ECS, our system demonstrates the capability of the model to capture and record dominant seasonal variability in physical-biological processes and this holds out the promise of coming to a better understanding of such processes and making better predictions .

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.209-216
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• 2003

Dramatic changes in the patterns of satellite-derived pigment concentrations, sea-level height anomaly, sea surface temperature anomaly, and zonal wind anomaly are observed during the 1997-1998 El Ni$\bar{n}$o. By some measures, the 1997-1998 El Ni$\bar{n}$o was the strongest one of the 20$^{th}$ century. A very strong El Ni$\bar{n}$o developed during 1997 and matured late in the year. A dramatic recovery occurred in mid-1998 and led to La Nina condition. The largest spatial extent of the phytoplankton bloom was fellowed recovery from El Ni$\bar{n}$o over the equatorial Pacific. The evolution towards a warm episode (El Ni$\bar{n}$o) started from spring of 2002 and continued during January 2003, while equatorial SSTA remained greater than +1$^{\circ}C$ in the central equatorial Pacific. The OSMI (Ocean Scanning Multispectral Imager) data are used for detection of dramatic changes in the patterns of pigment concentration during next El Ni$\bar{n}$o.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.125-133
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• 2012

Climatological trend for the period of 1970 to 2009 in sea water temperature around the Antarctic Peninsular waters in the Southern Ocean was investigated. During the period from 1970 to 2009, sea water temperature in the top 500 m water column except 100 m increased at a rate of $0.003-0.011^{\circ}C{\cdot}yr^{-1}$, but at 100 m it decreased at a rate of $-0.003^{\circ}C{\cdot}yr^{-1}$. Although long-term trend is generally warming, there were several periods of sharp changes between 1970 and 2009. Annual mean sea water temperature between surface and 500 m except 100 m decreased from the early of 1970s to the end of 1980s, and then it increased to the end of 2000s. In the entire water column between the surface and 500 m, sea water temperature closely correlated with the El Nino events expressed as the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), and SOI and sea water temperature have a dominant period of about 3-5 years and decade.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.101-101
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• 2020

Traditional stochastic simulation of hydroclimatological variables often underestimates the variability and correlation structure of larger timescale due to the difficulty in preserving long-term memory. However, the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model illustrates a remarkable long-term memory from the recursive hidden and cell states. The current study, therefore, employed the LSTM model in stochastic generation of hydrologic and climate variables to examine how much the LSTM model can preserve the long-term memory and overcome the drawbacks of conventional time series models such as autoregressive (AR). A trigonometric function and the Rössler system as well as real case studies for hydrological and climatological variables were tested. Results presented that the LSTM model reproduced the variability and correlation structure of the larger timescale as well as the key statistics of the original time domain better than the AR and other traditional models. The hidden and cell states of the LSTM containing the long-memory and oscillation structure following the observations allows better performance compared to the other tested conventional models. This good representation of the long-term variability can be important in water manager since future water resources planning and management is highly related with this long-term variability.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.24-24
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• 2019

This study investigates variations in the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and its impact on South Korean precipitation in late summer during the period between 1958 and 2017. Composite analysis reveals that precipitation occurrence is directly linked to the displacement of the WPSH western ridge, a single, large-scale feature of the atmosphere in the Pacific Ocean. When WPSH ridging is located northwest (NW) of its climatological mean position, excessive precipitation is expected in late summer due to enhanced moisture transport. On the other hand, a precipitation deficit is frequently observed when the western ridge is located in the southeast (SE). Different phases of the WPSH are associated with lagged patterns of Pacific and Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic variability, introducing the potential to predict variability in the WPSH western ridge and its climate over northern East Asia by one month. Based on the identified SST patterns, a simple statistical model is developed and improvement in the ability to predict is confirmed through a cross-validation framework. Finally, the potential for further improvements in WPSH-based predictions is addressed.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.111-119
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• 2005

The climatological characteristics of the area averaged monthly precipitation over the Han- and Nakdong-river basins were investigated. The data used for this study is monthly precipitation data from 51 meteorological stations for the period of 1954 to 2002. The magnitude of area averaged precipitation in the Han-river basin was about 10% larger than that in the Nakdong-river basin. However, the variability of two monthly precipitation time series exhibited similar characteristics: April precipitation tends to decrease and August precipitation increase significantly, while there was no significant trend for the other months. There were some indications of abrupt change around the 1970's in the periodicity of precipitation and relationship with El Nino index. September precipitation showed negative correlation with NINO3 index but November precipitation, positive correlation with NINO3 index, indicating a possible connection with the global-scale phenomena.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.109-123
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• 2017

The effects of recent climate change on hydrological systems could affect the Winter Olympic Games (WOG) because the event is dependent on suitable snow and ice conditions to support elite-level competitions. We investigate the long-term variability and change in winter total precipitation (P), snowfall water equivalent (SFE), and ratios of SFE to P during the period 1973/74~2015/16 in Gangwon province. The climatological percentages of SFE relative to winter total precipitation were 71%, 28%, and 44% in Daegwallyeong, Chuncheon, and Gangneung, respectively. The winter total P, SFE, and SFE/P has decreased (but not significantly), although significant increases of winter maximum and minimum temperature were detected at a 95% confidence level. Notably, a significant negative trend of SFE/P at Daegwallyeong in February, the month of the WOG, was attributable to a larger decrease in SFE related to the increases in maximum and minimum temperature. Winter wet-day minimum temperatures were warmer than climatological minimum temperatures averaged over the study period. The 20-year return values of daily maximum P and SFE decreased in Yongdong area. Since the SFE/P decrease with increasing temperature, the probability of rainfall rather than snowfall can increase if global warming continues.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.198-198
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• 2020

기후 내적 변동성(Climate Internal Variability, CIV)은 기후를 이해하는 데 중요한 역할을 하며 기후예측에 있어 주요 불확실성 원인들 중 하나이다. 본 연구는 다양한 이산화탄소 배출 시나리오에 대해 CIV와 기후학적 평균(Climatological Mean, CM)을 추정하는 것을 목표로 한다. 확률론적 날씨생성기(Stochastic Weather Generator)를 이용하여 국내 40개 기상 관측소에 대해, 30년에 해당하는 시단위 시계열 100개 앙상블을 생성하였다. CIV는 Detrend 방법과 Differenced 방법을 이용하여 추정되었으며, noise 계산값과 비교하였다. 그 결과, CIV 값과 noise 값들 사이의 correlation이 매우 높았으며, 제시된 방법론이 신뢰할 수 있음을 검증하였다. 국내 40개 지역에 적용하여 계산된 CIV와 CM의 주요 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 국내의 대부분의 지역에 있어 평균적으로 CM과 CIV는 미래에 증가할 것이며, 그 증가 정도는 RCP 8.5의 경우와 먼 미래END(2071-2100년) 기간에서 더 커질 것이다; (2) CM과 CIV의 미래 변화의 특성은 강수의 특성 지수에 따라 다르다. 강수량의 양을 나타내는 3개의 지수(총 강수량, totPr, 일 최대 강수량, maxDa 및 시간당 최대 강수량, maxHr)와 강수량의 발생일수를 나타내는 지수(무강우 일수, nonPr)의 특성은 크게 다르다. (3) CIV와 CM의 변화 요인들 사이의 관계를 조사하면 maxDa와 maxHr에 대해서는 그들 사이에 높은 상관관계가 있지만 다른 지수에는 그렇지 않다. (4) 국내에서 CIV 값이 공간적으로 변동성이 큰 경우는 계절적으로 여름이며, 이는 totPr 및 maxDa에서만 유효하다. 시단위 시계열 앙상블을 생성하여 추정된 기후내적변동성 정보는 기후 변화의 영향을 평가하고 적절한 적응 및 대응 전략을 개발하는 데 도움이 될 것이다.