• 제목/요약/키워드: Climate variability

검색결과 456건 처리시간 0.029초

PM10 연속자동측정기(β-ray) 등가성평가 및 비교관측 연구 (PM10 β-ray attenuation samplers (β-ray absorption method) equivalence evaluation and comparatively observed study)

  • 정원석;고희정;서원익;정지영;오상민;부경온
    • 한국입자에어로졸학회지
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    • 제19권1호
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2023
  • The Asian dust observation network operates β-ray attenuation samplers to measure PM10 concentrations. In addition, equivalence evaluation and accuracy inspection(Precision Tests) are conducted every year for the reliability of data. β-ray attenuation samplers(16 units) were comparatively observed from May to June 2020 and from July to December 2021. During the observation period, the average daily temperature was the lowest at 6.4℃ in December and the highest at 27.3℃ in August. The average daily humidity ranged from 60% to 100%, but the average daily humidity was over 75% from July to September. The minimum value of the PM10 Gravimetric method was 5.0 ㎍/m3, the maximum value was 53.4 ㎍/m3, and the average value was 17.8 ㎍/m3. The equivalence evaluation results of the PM10 Gravimetric method and β-ray attenuation samplers satisfied the criteria (slope: 1±0.1, intercept: 0±0.5). A relative error analysis between the PM10 Gravimetric method and β-ray attenuation samplers equipment showed that the relative error increased when the concentration was low and the temperature and humidity were high. In addition, in the β-ray attenuation samplers 5-minute interval observation data in May 2020, a relatively large Standard devication was shown as an average maximum ±23.4 ㎍/m3 and a minimum ±15.2 ㎍/m3. At standard deviations of 10% and 90%, equipment with high variability (deviation) was measured at 6 ㎍/m3and 61 ㎍/m3, and equipment with low variability was measured at 12 ㎍/m3 and 47 ㎍/m3. It was confirmed that concentration differences occurred due to differences in variability for each equipment.

기후 변화에 따른 한반도 산불 발생의 시공간적 변화 경향 (Climate Change over Korea and Its Relation to the Forest Fire Occurrence)

  • 성미경;임규호;최은호;이윤영;원명수;구교상
    • 대기
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    • 제20권1호
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2010
  • This study analyzes the climate change in Korea and its impact on the occurrence of forest fire events. The forest fire occurrences in Korea tend to concentrate around large cities. In addition, the spatial distribution of the forest fire occurrence seems to agree with local climate conditions. Though the occurrence of the forest fire shows strong interannual variation, it also exhibits a positive trend. Because the forest fire frequently occurs during early spring, we examined long term climate variability in Korea for the early spring seasons. The climate change in Korea generally has brought warmer, drier, and less precipitable conditions during the early spring. The changes of the atmospheric conditions provide favorable condition for the forest fire. The climate changes in Korea also depict distinct spatial variability according to the atmospheric variables. We compared the regional trend of the fire occurrence with the climate trends. The results show the sharpest growing in the forest fire occurrence over southwest of Korea. This study suggests that the decrease in the precipitation day might affect the sharp increasement of the forest fire occurrence in the southwest of Korea.

GCM 공간상세화 방법별 기후변화에 따른 수문영향 평가 - 만경강 유역을 중심으로 - (Assessing Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change in the Mankyung Watershed with Different GCM Spatial Downscaling Methods)

  • 김동현;장태일;황세운;조재필
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제61권6호
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate hydrologic impacts of climate change according to downscaling methods using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at watershed scale. We used the APCC Integrated Modeling Solution (AIMS) for assessing various General Circulation Models (GCMs) and downscaling methods. AIMS provides three downscaling methods: 1) BCSA (Bias-Correction & Stochastic Analogue), 2) Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM), 3) SDQDM (Spatial Disaggregation and Quantile Delta Mapping). To assess future hydrologic responses of climate change, we adopted three GCMs: CESM1-BGC for flood, MIROC-ESM for drought, and HadGEM2-AO for Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) national standard scenario. Combined nine climate change scenarios were assessed by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). SWAT model was established at the Mankyung watershed and the applicability assessment was completed by performing calibration and validation from 2008 to 2017. Historical reproducibility results from BCSA, SQM, SDQDM of three GCMs show different patterns on annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and four selected ETCCDI. BCSA and SQM showed high historical reproducibility compared with the observed data, however SDQDM was underestimated, possibly due to the uncertainty of future climate data. Future hydrologic responses presented greater variability in SQM and relatively less variability in BCSA and SDQDM. This study implies that reasonable selection of GCMs and downscaling methods considering research objective is important and necessary to minimize uncertainty of climate change scenarios.

여름철 계절안 진동이 한반도 강수에 미치는 영향 및 장기 변화 특성 연구 (Influence of Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation on Korean Precipitation and its Long-Term Changes)

  • 이준이;;문수연;하경자
    • 대기
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.435-444
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    • 2017
  • By analyzing Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) from May to September for 1951~2007, this study investigates impacts of two dominant boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) modes on precipitation over Monsoon Asia including Korea and long-term change of 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO over Korea. It is shown that BSISO strongly modulates rainfall variability over the many part of Monsoon Asia including Korea. Korea tends to have more (less) rainfall during the phases 3~5 (7~8) of BSISO1 representing the canonical northward/northeastward propagating 30~60-day ISO and during the phases 6~8 (3~5) of BSISO2 representing the northward/northwestward propagating 10~20-day ISO. It is found that the 10~20-day ISO variability contributes to summer mean rainfall variability more than 30~60-day ISO over Korea. For the 57 years of 1951~2007, the correlation coefficient between the May to September mean precipitation anomaly and standard deviation of 10~20-day (30~60-day) ISO is 0.71 (0.46). It is further noted that there is a significant increasing trend in the 10~20-day and 30~60-day ISO variability in the rainy season during the period of 1951 to 2007.

Impact of $CO_2$ Increase on East Asian Monsoon

  • Kripalani, R.H.;Oh, J.H.;Chaudhari, H.S.
    • 한국제4기학회지
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    • 제19권2호
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    • pp.50-54
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    • 2005
  • Some basic summer precipitation features over East Asia during the $20^{th}-21^{st}$ century as simulated / projected by the 22 coupled climate models under the IPCC AR4 program are investigated. Keeping in view that these are climate runs without prescribed SSTs, models perform well in simulating the regional annual cycle, spatial patterns (not shown) and the inter-annual variability. The projections under the 1% increase in $CO_2$ compounded until reaching double and held constant thereafter reveal that (a) Precipitation is likely to increase in all the months in particular during the summer monsoon (JJA) months. (b) The mean summer monsoon rainfall can increase from 4.2 to 13.5% and its variability is also likely to increase in the warming world due to increase in $CO_2$ (c) Extreme excess and deficient seasonal monsoons are likely to become more intense (not shown here) (d) Once the increase in $CO_2$ is cut-off, the system will reach a state of equilibrium, and then the rate of increase in precipitation is also expected to remain constant.

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CMIP5 자료를 활용한 미래 우리나라의 인위적 영향에 의한 온난화 발현 시기 분석 (Emergence of Anthropogenic Warming over South Korea in CMIP5 Projections)

  • 부경온;심성보;김지은;변영화;조천호
    • 한국기후변화학회지
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    • 제7권4호
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    • pp.421-426
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    • 2016
  • Significant warming by anthropogenic influences over Korea is analyzed using CMIP5 projections (monthly mean, maximum and minimum temperatures) from RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6 scenarios. Time of emergence (TOE) in JJA and DJF is chosen as the year when the magnitude of warming against the natural climate variability satisfies S/N>2 in 80% of the models in this study. Significant emergence in JJA is expected to appear in 2030s in three RCP scenarios, earlier than TOE in DJF. In DJF, TOE is expected to be 2040s in RCP 8.5 and is delayed in 2060s, 2080s in RCP 4.5, 2.6, respectively. Later emergence in low emission scenarios implies an importance of climate change mitigation consistent with previous studies. Maximum and minimum temperatures show similar results to the case of mean temperature. ToE is found to be affected by the amplitude of natural variability by season, variables and model spread, which requires further understanding.

Exploring the factors responsible for variation in streamflow using different Budyko-base functions

  • Shah, Sabab Ali;Jehanzaib, Muhammad;Kim, Min Ji;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.140-140
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    • 2022
  • Recently an accurate quantification of streamflow under various climatological and anthropogenic factors and separation of their relative contribution remains challenging, because variation in streamflow may result in hydrological disasters. In this study, we evaluated the factors responsible for variation in streamflow in Korean watersheds, quantified separately their contribution using different Budyko-based functions, and identified hydrological breakpoint points. After detecting that the hydrological break point in 1995 and time series were divided into natural period (1966-1995), and disturbed period (1996-2014). During the natural period variation in climate tended to increase change in streamflow. However, in the disturbed period both climate variation and anthropogenic activities tended to increase streamflow variation in the watershed. Subsequently, the findings acquired from different Budyko-based functions were observed sensitive to selection of function. The variation in streamflow was observed in the response of change in climatic parameters ranging 46 to 75% (average 60%). The effects of anthropogenic activities were observed less compared to climate variation accounts 25 to 54% (average 40%). Furthermore, the relative contribution was observed to be sensitive corresponding to Budyko-based functions utilized. Moreover, relative impacts of both factors have capability to enhance uncertainty in the management of water resources. Thus, this knowledge would be essential for the implementation of water management spatial and temporal scale to reduce the risk of hydrological disasters in the watershed.

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