• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.103-115
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• 2018

The uncertainty of climate scenarios, as initial information, is one of the significant factors among uncertainties of climate change impacts and vulnerability assessments. In this sense, the quantification of the uncertainty of climate scenarios is essential to understanding these assessments of impacts and vulnerability for adaptation to climate change. Here we quantified the precision of surface temperature of ensemble scenarios (high resolution (1km) RCP4.5 and 8.5) provided by Korea Meteorological Administration, with spatiotemporal variation of the standard deviation of them. From 2021 to 2050, the annual increase rate of RCP8.5 was higher than that of RCP4.5 while the annual variation of RCP8.5 was lower than that of RCP4.5. The standard deviations of ensemble scenarios are higher in summer and winter, particularly in July and January, when the extreme weather events could occur. In general, the uncertainty of ensemble scenarios in summer were lower than those in winter. In spatial distribution, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios in Seoul Metropolitan Area is relatively higher than other provinces, while that of Yeongnam area is lower than other provinces. In winter, the standard deviations of ensemble scenarios of RCP4.5 and 8.5 in January are higher than those of December. Especially, the standard deviation of ensemble scenarios is higher in the central regions including Gyeonggi, and Gangwon, where the mean surface temperature is lower than southern regions along with Chungbuk. Such differences in precisions of climate ensemble scenarios imply that those uncertainty information should be taken into account for the implementation of national climate change policy.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제53권6호
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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• pp.185-185
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• 2019

Sustaining future wheat production is challenged by anthropogenically forced climate warming and drying led by increased concentration of greenhouse gases all around the globe. Warming stresses, originating from the elevated $CO_2$ concentration, are continuously reported to have negative impacts on wheat growth and yield. Yet, elevated $CO_2$ concentration, despite being disparagingly blamed for promoting warming, is also associated with a phenomenon called $CO_2$ enrichment; in which wheat yield can improve due to the enhanced photosynthesis rates and less water loss through transpiration. The conflicting nature of climate warming and $CO_2$ enrichment and their interplay can have specific implications under different environments. It is established form the field and simulation studies that the two contrasting phenomena would act severely in their own respect under arid and semi-arid environments. Wheat is a dietary staple for masses in Pakistan. The country's wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more from irrigated agricultural lands, primarily lying under arid to semi-arid environments, to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. This work comprehensively examines the warming impacts over wheat yield and water productivity (WP), with and without the inclusion of $CO_2$ enrichment, under semi-arid environment of Punjab which is the largest agricultural province of Pakistan. Future wheat yields and WPs were simulated by FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0. The model was run using the bias-correction climate change projections up to 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. Wheat yield and WPs decreased without considering the $CO_2$ enrichment effects owing to the elevated irrigation demands and accelerated evapotranspiration rates. The results suggested that $CO_2$ enrichment could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s (2021-2050); however, it might not withhold the negative climate warming impacts during the 2060s (2051-2080). Furthermore, 10 - 20 day backward shift in sowing dates could also help ease the constraints imposed by climate warming over wheat yields and WPs. Although, $CO_2$ enrichment showed promises to counteract the adverse climate warming impacts but the interactions between climate warming and $CO_2$ concentrations were quite uncertain and required further examination.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제47권3호
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• pp.459-470
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• 2012

본 연구는 강원도 농업을 사례로 1993-2010년 기간 동안 11개 시군별 기후, 지리 및 토양, 사회 경제적 변수들에 대한 패널자료를 구축하고 리카디언 방법을 사용하여 극한기후 변수들이 논과 밭 경작유형별로 토지가치에 미친 경제적 효과를 추정하고자 시도한다. 추정결과에 따르면, 호우 관련 극한기후 변수는 논과 밭의 토지가치와 부정적인 관계가 있다. 여름철 관련 극한기온 변수들은 토지가치에 음(-)의 영향을 미치고 있지만, 한파를 제외한 겨울철 관련 극한기온 변수들은 토지가치와 정(+)의 관계를 보여주고 있다.

• 대한원격탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한원격탐사학회 2005년도 Proceedings of ISRS 2005
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• pp.11-13
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• 2005

The Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that many collective observations gave a aspect of a global warming and other changes in the climate system. Future earth observation using satellite data should monitor global climate change, and should contribute to social benefits. Especially, human activities has given the big impacts to earth environment This is a very complex affair, and nature itself also impacts the clouds, namely the seasonal variations. JAXA (former NASDA) has the plan of the Global Change Observation Mission (GCOM) for monitoring of global environmental change. SGLI (Second Generation GLI) onboard GCOM-C (Climate) satellite, which is one of this mission, is an optical sensor from Near-UV to TIR. This sensor is the GLI follow-on sensor, which has the various new characteristics. Polarized/multi-directional channels and 250m resolution channels are the unique characteristics on this sensor. This sensor can be contributed to clarification of coastal change in sea surface. This paper shows the introduction of the unique aspects and characteristics of the next generation satellite sensor, SGLIIGCOM-C, and shows the preliminary research for this sensor.

• 대한설비공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한설비공학회 2006년도 하계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.789-794
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• 2006

The potential impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand were investigated by means of transient building energy simulations and hourly weather data scenarios for Inchon. Future trends for the 21 st century was assessed based oil climate change scenarios with 7 global climate models(GCMs), We constructed hourly weather data from monthly temperatures and total incident solar radiation ($W/m^2$) and then simulated heating and cooling load by Trnsys 16 for Inchon. For 2004-2080, the selected scenarios made by IPCC foresaw a $3.7-5.8^{\circ}C$rise in mean annual air temperature. In 2004-2080, the annual cooling load for a apartment with internal heat gains increased by 75-165% while the heating load fell by 52-71%. Our analysis showed widely varying shifts in future energy demand depending on the season. Heating costs will significantly decrease whereas more expensive electrical energy will be needed of air conditioning during the summer.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.23-44
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• 2013

기후변화에 효율적으로 대응하기 위해서는 막대한 예산이 소요되는 적응대책에 대한 우선순위를 선정하고 이에 따라 시행하는 일이 매우 중요하다. 본 연구의 목적은 적응대책의 우선순위 평가 방법론을 분석해 현재 가용한 정보의 범위에서 기후변화의 특수성을 반영해 적용 가능한 우선순위 평가 방법론을 제안하는 것이다. 우선순위 결정을 위한 의사결정 방법론은 다기준 분석 등의 정성적 분석법과 비용편익 분석 등의 정량적 평가 방법론이 있다. 각 방법론별로 서로 장점과 단점이 있으며 필요 자료의 수준도 상이하다. 정책평가를 위한 지표는 정책의 효율성, 경제성, 정치성 등을 평가하는 많은 지표가 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 일반 정책평가 지표와 기후변화의 특수성을 고려해 기후변화 적응대책의 우선순위 평가 지표로 크게 기후변화 위험성, 정책성, 효율성을 선정하였다. 기후변화 위험성의 세부 지표로는 피해발생시점, 피해발생 가능성, 피해 강도가 포함되며, 효율성으로는 경제적 효율성, 부수효과, 파급효과로 대표될 수 있다. 정책성의 평가 지표는 형평성, 기존 정책과의 부합성, 민주성으로 구성된다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.177-177
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• 2023

The impacts of dams on transboundary flow are complex and challenging to project and manage, given the potential moderating influence of a broad range of anthropogenic and natural factors. This study presents a global meta-analysis of 168 studies that examines the effect magnitude of dams on downstream seasonal, annual flow, and hydrological extremes risk on 39 hotspot transboundary river basins. The study also evaluates the impact of 13 factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, dams' design and types, level of transboundary cooperation, and socioeconomic indicators, on the heterogeneity of outcomes. The findings reveal that moderators significantly influence the impact of dams on downstream flow, leading to considerable heterogeneity in outcomes. Transboundary cooperation emerges as the key factor that determines the severity of dams' effect on both dry and wet season's flows at a significance level of 0.01 to 0.05, respectively. Specifically, the presence of water-supply and irrigation dams has a significant (0.01) moderating effect on dry-season flow across basins with high transboundary cooperation. In contrast, for wet-season flow, the basin's vulnerability to climate extremes is associated with a large negative effect size. The various moderators have varying degrees of influence on the heterogeneity of outcomes, with the aridity index, population density, GDP, and risk level of hydro-political tension being the most significant factors for dry-season flow, and the risk level of hydro-political tension and basin vulnerability to climate extremes being the most significant for wet-season flow. The results suggest that transboundary cooperation is crucial for managing the impacts of dams on downstream flow, and that various other factors, such as climate, basin characteristics, and socioeconomic indicators, have significant moderating effects on the outcomes. Thus, context-specific approaches are necessary when predicting and managing the impacts of dams on transboundary flow.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제40권2호
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• pp.89-100
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• 2024

Climate change has a broad impact on the entire water environment, and this impact is growing. Climate adaptation in water supply systems often involves quantity and quality control, but there has been a lack of research examining the impacts of climatic factors on water supply productivity and operation conditions. Therefore, the present study focused on, first, building a database of climatic factors and water purification operating conditions, and then identifying the correlations between factors to reveal their impacts. News big data was analyzed with keywords of climatic factors and water supply systems in either nationwide or region-wide analyses. Metropolitan area exhibited more issues with cold waves whereas there were more issues with drought in the Southern Chungcheong area. A survey was conducted to seek experts' opinions on the climatic impacts leading to these effects. Pre-chlorination due to drought, high-turbidity of intake water due to rainfall, an increase of toxins in intake water due to heat waves, and low water temperature due to cold waves were expected. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted based on meteorological data and the operating data of a water purification plant. Heavy rain resulted in 13 days of high turbidity, and the subsequent low turbidity conditions required 3 days of high coagulant dosage. This insight is expected to help inform the design of operation manuals for waterworks in response to climate change.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제9권2호
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• pp.101-108
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• 2000

Through numerical experiment using simplified OSU-1D PBL(Oregon State University One-Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer) model and field measurement, we studied the impacts of vegetation canopy on heat island that was one of the characteristics of local climaate in urban area. it was found that if the fraction of vegetation was extended by 10 percent, the maximum air temperature and the maximum ground temperature can come down about 0.9${\circ}C$, 2.3${\circ}C$, respectively. Even though the field measurement was done under a little unstable atmospheric condition, the canopy air temperature was lower in the daytime, and higher at night than the air and ground temperature. This result suggests that the extention of vegetation canopy can bring about more pleasant local climate by causing the oasis, the shade and the blanket effect.