• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate factors

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Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측)

  • Kim, Hogul;Lee, Dong-Kun;Mo, Yongwon;Kil, Sungho;Park, Chan;Lee, Soojae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2013
  • Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.

Climate change and resilience of biocontrol agents for mycotoxin control

  • Magan, Naresh;Medina, Angel
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2018.05a
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    • pp.41-41
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    • 2018
  • There has been an impetus in the development of biocontrol agents (BCAs) with the removal of a number of chemical compounds in the market, especially in the European Union. This has been a major driver in the development of Integrated Pest Management systems (IPM) for both pest and disease control. For control of mycotoxigenic fungi, there is interest in both control of colonization and more importantly toxin contamination of staple food commodities. Thus the relative inoculum potential of biocontrol agent vs the toxigenic specie sis important. The major bottlenecks in the production and development of formulations of biocontrol agents are the resilience of the strains, inoculum quality and formulation with effective field efficacy. It was recently been shown for mycotoxigenic fungi such as Aspergillus flavus, under extreme climate change conditions, growth is not affected although there may be a stimulation of aflatoxin production. Thus, the development of resilient biocontrol strains which can may have conserved control efficacy but have the necessary resilience becomes critical form a food security point of view. Indeed, under predicted climate change scenarios the diversity of pests and fungal diseases are expected to have profound impacts on food security. Thus, when examining the identification of potential biocontrol strains, production and formulation it is critical that the resilience to CC environmental factors are included and quantified. The problems in relation to the physiological competence and the relative humidity range over which efficacy can occur, especially pre-harvest may be increase under climate change conditions. We have examined the efficacy of atoxigenic strains of A. flavus and Clanostachys rosea and other candidates for control of A. flavus and aflatoxin contamination of maize, and for Fusarium verticillioides and fumonisin toxin control. We have also examined the potential use of fluidized-bed drying, nanoparticles/nanospheres and encapsulation approaches to enhance the potential for the production of resilient biocontrol formulations. The objective being the delivery of biocontrol efficacy under extreme interacting climatic conditions. The potential impact of climate change factors on the efficacy of biocontrol of fungal diseases and mycotoxins are discussed.

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The Factors Affecting Problem Solving Ability of Critical Thinking Disposition, Communication Skills, and Autonomous Educational Climate in Dental Hygiene Department Students (치위생학 전공 대학생의 비판적 사고성향, 의사소통능력, 자율적 교육풍토가 문제해결능력에 미치는 요인)

  • Kim, Seo-Yeon
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.12
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    • pp.244-251
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    • 2019
  • This study is to investigate the factors influencing the problem solving ability of dental hygiene and students' communication ability and critical thinking and autonomous educational climate. The subjects were 249 dental hygienists who attended two university from May 20 to June 1, 2018. Statistical analysis was performed with mean, t-test and one-way ANOVA. The overall mean of critical thinking tendency was 3.47 points, the total mean of communication life was 3.48 points. The overall mean of autonomous educational climate was 3.14 points and the total mean of problem solving ability was 3.40 points. The higher the critical thinking disposition score, the higher the problem solving ability. The higher the satisfaction of the major, the higher the problem solving ability. Therefore, if the program to improve communication ability, critical thinking tendency, and autonomous educational climate of college students majoring in dental hygiene is expected to improve the problem solving ability.

Development of Evaluation Model of Pumping and Drainage Station Using Performance Degradation Factors (농업기반시설물 양·배수장의 성능저하 요인분석 및 성능평가 모델 개발)

  • Lee, Jonghyuk;Lee, Sangik;Jeong, Youngjoon;Lee, Jemyung;Yoon, Seongsoo;Park, Jinseon;Lee, Byeongjoon;Lee, Joongu;Choi, Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.61 no.4
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    • pp.75-86
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    • 2019
  • Recently, natural disasters due to abnormal climates are frequently outbreaking, and there is rapid increase of damage to aged agricultural infrastructure. As agricultural infrastructure facilities are in contact with water throughout the year and the number of them is significant, it is important to build a maintenance management system. Especially, the current maintenance management system of pumping and drainage stations among the agricultural facilities has the limit of lack of objectivity and management personnel. The purpose of this study is to develop a performance evaluation model using the factors related to performance degradation of pumping and drainage facilities and to predict the performance of the facilities in response to climate change. In this study, we focused on the pumping and drainage stations belonging to each climatic zone separated by the Korea geographical climatic classification system. The performance evaluation model was developed using three different statistical models of POLS, RE, and LASSO. As the result of analysis of statistical models, LASSO was selected for the performance evaluation model as it solved the multicollinearity problem between variables, and showed the smallest MSE. To predict the performance degradation due to climate change, the climate change response variables were classified into three categories: climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The performance degradation prediction was performed at each facility using the developed performance evaluation model and the climate change response variables.

Analysis of the Emergency Water Supply Capacity in Agricultural Reservoirs Using K-HAS and Ratio Correction Factors (K-HAS와 비율보정 계수를 이용한 농업용 저수지의 비상연계 용수공급 가능량 분석)

  • Kim, Hayoung;Lee, Sang-Hyun;Na, Ra;Joo, Donghyuk;Yoo, Seung-Hwan
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2023
  • As the frequency of drought increases due to climate change, water scarcity in agriculture would be a main issue. However, it seems difficult to solve the water scarcity by securing alternative water sources. The aim of this study is to analyze optimal water supply capacity of agricultural reservoir for emergency operation connecting reservoirs and dams. First, we simulated the water storage of agricultural reservoir playing the role emergency water supplier to other water facility such as dams and other reservoirs. In particular, the results of simulation of water storage through K-HAS model was calibrated using the optimization process based on ratio correction factors of outflow and inflow. Finally, the optimal amount of water supply securing water supply reliability in emergency interconnection operation was analyzed. The results of this study showed that Janchi reservoir could supply 12.8 thousand m3/day maintaining 90 % water supply reliability. The result of this study could suggest the standard for connecting water facilities as emergency water supply.

The Use and Abuse of Climate Scenarios in Agriculture (농업부문 기후시나리오 활용의 주의점)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2016
  • It is not clear how to apply the climate scenario to assess the impact of climate change in the agricultural sector. Even if you apply the same scenario, the result can vary depending on the temporal-spatial downscaling, the post-treatment to adjust the bias of a model, and the prediction model selection (used for an impact assessment). The end user, who uses the scenario climate data, should select climate factors, a spatial extend, and a temporal range appropriate for the objectives of an analysis. It is important to draw the impact assessment results with minimum uncertainty by evaluating the suitability of the data including the reproducibility of the past climate and calculating the optimum future climate change scenario. This study introduced data processing methods for reducing the uncertainties in the process of applying the future climate change scenario to users in the agricultural sector and tried to provide basic information for appropriately using the scenario data in accordance with the study objectives.

Relationship Between Climate Change and Total Factor Productivity (기후변화와 국가별 총요소생산성의 관계)

  • Choi, Young Jun;Park, Hyun Yong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.343-363
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    • 2015
  • This study is to analyze the effects of climate change on national total factor productivity. Changes in temperature and rainfalls which are the representative climate variables are used as main factors to measure climate change. Not only average values of the variables but those highest values are used as independent variables in the model, in order to consider the characteristic pattern of recent climate change, the high volatilities. The OLS results are corresponding to previous literature that average temperature has a negative relationship with productivities while average rainfalls have a positive relationship. However, the results of panel analysis contradict the argument of the negative relationship between average temperature and productivities since human beings can adapt the climate change. Therefore adaptation capacity is important to forecast the effects of climate changes on economies.

Analysis for Air Temperature Trend and Elasticity of Air-water Temperature according to Climate Changes in Nakdong River Basin (기후변화에 따른 낙동강 유역의 기온 경향성 및 수온과의 탄성도 분석)

  • Shon, Tae Seok;Lim, Yong Gyun;Baek, Meung Ki;Shin, Hyun Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.822-833
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    • 2010
  • Temperature increase due to climate changes causes change of water temperature in rivers which results in change of water quality etc. and the change of river ecosystem has a great impact on human life. Analyzing the impact of current climate changes on air and water temperature is an important thing in adapting to the climate changes. This study examined the effect of climate changes through analyzing air temperature trend for Nakdong river basin and analyzed the elasticity of air-water temperature to understand the effect of climate changes on water temperature. For analysis air temperature trend, collecting air temperature data from the National Weather Service on main points in Nakdong river basin, and resampling them at the units of year, season and month, used as data for air temperature trend analysis. Analyzing for elasticity of air-water temperature, the data were collected by the Water Environment Information system for water temperature, while air temperature data were collected at the National Weather Service point nearest in the water temperature point. And using the results of trend analysis and elasticity analysis, the effect of climate changes on water temperature was examined estimating future water temperature in 20 years and 50 years after. It is judged that analysis on mutual impact between factors such as heat budget, precipitation and evapotranspiration on river water temperature affected by climate changes and river water temperature is necessary.

Effects of Hydro-Climate Conditions on Calibrating Conceptual Hydrologic Partitioning Model (개념적 수문분할모형의 보정에 미치는 수문기후학적 조건의 영향)

  • Choi, Jeonghyeon;Seo, Jiyu;Won, Jeongeun;Lee, Okjeong;Kim, Sangdan
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.36 no.6
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    • pp.568-580
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    • 2020
  • Calibrating a conceptual hydrologic model necessitates selection of a calibration period that produces the most reliable prediction. This often must be chosen randomly, however, since there is no objective guidance. Observation plays the most important role in the calibration or uncertainty evaluation of hydrologic models, in which the key factors are the length of the data and the hydro-climate conditions in which they were collected. In this study, we investigated the effect of the calibration period selected on the predictive performance and uncertainty of a model. After classifying the inflows of the Hapcheon Dam from 1991 to 2019 into four hydro-climate conditions (dry, wet, normal, and mixed), a conceptual hydrologic partitioning model was calibrated using data from the same hydro-climate condition. Then, predictive performance and post-parameter statistics were analyzed during the verification period under various hydro-climate conditions. The results of the study were as follows: 1) Hydro-climate conditions during the calibration period have a significant effect on model performance and uncertainty, 2) calibration of a hydrologic model using data in dry hydro-climate conditions is most advantageous in securing model performance for arbitrary hydro-climate conditions, and 3) the dry calibration can lead to more reliable model results.

Determinant Factors of Rice Farmers' Selection of Adaptation Methods to Climate Change in Eastern Rwanda (동부 르완다 쌀 농업인의 기후변화에 대한 적응 방법 결정 요인)

  • Butera, Tonny;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Choi, Se-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.241-253
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    • 2022
  • The negative impact of climate change on the agricultural sector is rapidly increasing, and it is urgent to prepare policies at the government level to mitigate it. In the case of Rwanda's agricultural sector, which lacks the government's budget and farmers' capital, efficient and effective policy implementation is of paramount importance. To this end, rather than establishing related policies in the public sector from the top down, it is necessary to establish a bottom-up customized policy that is reflected in policy establishment by identifying the characteristics and behaviors of farmers who actually participate in adaptation activities. In this study, the effects of farmers' characteristics and farmers' perception status/adaptation status to climate change on the selection of adaptation methods for climate change were analyzed. 357 rice farmers randomly selected from Eastern Rwanda were surveyed to explore the information related to farmers' perception to climate change and adaptation methods as well as basic information of the farm. Research shows that the probability of selecting a variety of adaptation methods rather than not responding to climate change increases the younger the age, the higher the education level, and the easier access to climate information and credit. As a policy proposals, it is judged that public support such as strengthening agricultural technology support services, including more detailed guidance for elderly and low-educated farmers, and improving access to farm loan services by agricultural financial institutions is needed. In addition, it is necessary to adjust the planting time and cultivation method, provide timely information related to climate change, and provide crop variety improvement services to farmers.