• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제13권5호
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• pp.449-467
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• 2004

Interannual and decadal scale changes in body size of Pacific saury, catch and catch per unit effort were examined to investigate the environmental effects on the stock structure and abundance in the Tsushima Warm Current region. Interannual changes in thermal conditions are responsible for the different occurrence (catch) rates of sized group of the fish. Changes in body size due to environmental variables lead the stock to be homogeneous during the period of high abundance, while one of the reminder cohorts supports the stock during the period of low level of abundance. Migration circuits of two cohorts of saury stock are hypothesized on the basis of short life span and spatio-temporal changes of the stock structure in normal environmental conditions. Changes in upper ocean structure and production cycles by the decadal scale climate changes lead changes in stock structure and recruitment, resulting in the fluctuation of saury abundance. Hypothesized mechanism of the effects of climate changes on stock structure and abundance is illustrated on the basis of changes in thermal regime and production cycle.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제61권1호
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• pp.45-59
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• 2019

Since the baseflow, which constitutes most of the river flow in the dry season, plays an important role in the solution of river runoff and drought, it is important to accurately evaluate the characteristics of the baseflow for river management. In this study, land use change was evaluated through time series data of land use, and then baseflow characteristics were analyzed by considering climate change and land use change using climate change scenarios. The results showed that the contribution of baseflow of scenarios considering both climate change and land use change was lower than that of scenarios considering only climate change for yearly and seasonal analysis. This implies that land use changes as well as climate changes affect base runoff. Thus, if we study the watershed in which the land use is occurring rapidly in the future, it is considered that the study should be carried out considering both land use change and climate change. The results of this study can be used as basic data for studying the baseflow characteristics in the Gapcheon watershed considering various land use changes and climate change in the future.

• 한국제4기학회지
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• 제21권2호
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• pp.74-76
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• 2007

The modern foraminiferal distribution patterns and species diversity in surrounding seas of Korea are controlled by winter monsoon and characteristics of water masses. Abrupt climate change, Younger Dryas cold episode" is identified in Korea. The Younger Dryas is characterized by local extinctions of foraminifera. Several record-breaking climate phenomena observed in Korea, especially September, 2007.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.39-50
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• 2020

Purpose: Agriculture, which is heavily influenced by climate conditions, is one of the industries most affected by climate change. In this respect, various studies on the impact of climate change on the agricultural market have been conducted. Since climate change is a long-term phenomenon for more than a decade, long-term projections of agricultural prices as well as climate variables are needed to properly analyze the impact of climate change on the agricultural market. However, these long-term price projections are often major constraints on studies of climate changes. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impacts of climate changes on the Korean onion market using ex-post analysis approach in order to avoid the difficulties of long-term price projections. Research design, data and methodology: This study develops an annual dynamic partial equilibrium model of Korean onion market. The behavioral equations of the model were estimated by OLS based on the annual data from 1988 to 2018. The modelling system is first simulated to have actual onion market conditions from 2014 to 2018 as a baseline and then compared it to the scenario assuming the climatic conditions under RCP8.5 over the same period. Scenario analyses were simulated by both comparative static and dynamic approach to evaluate the differences between the two approaches. Results: According to the empirical results, if the climate conditions under RCP8.5 were applied from 2014 to 2018, the yield of onion would increase by about 4%, and the price of onion would decrease from 3.7% to 17.4%. In addition, the average price fluctuation rate over the five years under RCP8.5 climate conditions is 56%, which is more volatile than 46% under actual climate conditions. Empirical results also show that the price decreases have been alleviated in dynamic model compared with comparative static model. Conclusions: Empirical results show that climate change is expected to increase onion yields and reduce onion prices. Therefore, the appropriate countermeasures against climate change in Korean onion market should be found in the stabilization of supply and demand for price stabilization rather than technical aspects such as the development of new varieties to increase productivity.

• 환경정책연구
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• 제1권1호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2002

Due to the recent increase in greenhouse gases in atmosphere, world climate is rapidly changing and in turn, the earth ecosystem responds upon the climate changes. Comparing the ecosystem in the past, the present shapes of ecosystem is the result of the serious modification. Fishery resources in marine ecosystem, which usually occupy the upper trophic level, are also inevitable from such changes, because they always react to the natural environmental conditions. The northwestern Pacific is the most productive ocean in the world producing about 30% of world catch. From time to time, however, it has been notified that abundance, distribution and species composition of major fish species were altered by climate events. Furthermore, primary productivity of the ocean is not stable under the changing environments, so that carrying capacity of the ocean varies from one climate regime to another. Major climate events such as global warming, atmospheric circulation pattern, climate regime shift in the North Pacific, and El Nino event in the Pacific tropical waters were introduced in relation to fisheries aspects. The current status and future projection of fishery production was investigated, especially in the North Pacific including Korean waters. This new paradigm, ecosystem response to environmental variability, has become the main theme in marine ecology and fishery science, and the GLOBEC-type researches might provide a solution far cause-effect mechanism as well as prediction capability. Ecosystem management principles for multi-species should be adopted for better understanding and management of ecosystem.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권4호
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• pp.65-86
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• 2021

This study aims at testing a hypothesis that the resilience of agricultural water systems is characterized by trade-offs and synergies of effects from climate and socioeconomic change. To achieve this, an Agricultural Water System Climate Resilience Assessment (ACRA) framework is established to evaluate comprehensive resilience of an agricultural water system to the combined impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes with a case study in South Korea. Understanding dynamic behaviors of the agricultural water systems under climate and socioeconomic drivers is not straightforward because the system structure includes complex interactions with multiple feedbacks across components in water and agriculture sectors and climate and socioeconomic factors, which has not been well addressed in the existing decision support models. No consideration of the complex interactions with feedbacks in a decision making process may lead to counterintuitive and untoward evaluation of the coupled impacts of the climate and socioeconomic changes on the system performance. In this regard, the ACRA framework employs a System Dynamics (SD) approach that has been widely used to understand dynamics of the complex systems with the feedback interactions. In the ACRA framework applied to the case study in South Korea, the SD model works along with HOMWRS simulation. The ACRA framework will help to explore resilience-based strategies with infrastructure investment and management options for agricultural water systems.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.249-258
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• 2006

Impacts of global warming have been identified in many areas including natural ecosystem. A good number of studies based on climate models forecasting future climate have been conducted in many countries worldwide. Due to its global coverage, GCM, which is a most frequently used climate model, has limits to apply to Korea with such a narrower and complicated terrain. Therefore, it is necessary to perform a study impact assessment of climate changes with a climate model fully reflecting characteristics of Korean climate. In this respect, this study was designed to compare and analyze the GCM and RCM in order to determine a suitable climate model for Korea. In this study, spatial scope was Korea for 10 years from 1981 to 1990. As a research method, current climate was estimated on the basis of the data obtained from observation at the GHCN. Future climate was forecast using 4 GCMs furnished by the IPCC among SRES A2 Scenario as well as the RCM received from the NIES of Japan. Pearson correlation analysis was conducted for the purpose of comparing data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM. As a result of this study, average annual temperature of Korea between 1981 and 1990 was found to be around $12.03^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall being 2.72mm. Under the GCM, average annual temperature was between 10.22 and $16.86^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall between 2.13 and 3.35mm. Average annual temperature in the RCM was identified $12.56^{\circ}C$, with average daily rainfall of 5.01mm. In the comparison of the data obtained from observation with GCM and RCM, RCMs of both temperature and rainfall were found to well reflect characteristics of Korea's climate. This study is important mainly in that as a preliminary study to examine impact of climate changes such as global warming it chose appropriate climate model for our country. These results of the study showed that future climate produced under similar conditions with actual ones may be applied for various areas in many ways.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.251-263
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• 2013

The surface ozone concentrations changes were investigated in response to climate change over the Korean peninsula for summertime using the global-regional one way coupled Integrated Climate and Air quality Modeling System (ICAMS). The future simulations were conducted under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 scenarios. The modeling system was applied for four 10-year simulations: 1996~2005 as a present-day case, 2016~2025, 2046~2055, and 2091~2100 as future cases. The results in this study showed that the mean surface ozone concentrations increased up to 0.5~3.3 ppb under the A2, but decreased by 0.1~10.9 ppb under the B1 for the future, respectively. However, its increases were lower than an increase of the average daily maximum 8-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations which was projected to increase by 2.8~6.5 ppb under the A2. The DM8H surface ozone concentrations seem to be therefore far more affected by the climate and emissions changes than mean values. The probability of exceeding 60 ppb was projected to increase by 6~19% under the A2. In the case of B1, its changes were presented with an increase of 2.9% in the 2020s but no occurrence in the 2100s due to the effect of the reduced emissions. Future projection on surface ozone concentrations was generally shown to have almost the similar trend as the emissions of $NO_x$ and NMVOC.

• 한국양식학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국양식학회 2004년도 수산관련학회 공동학술대회 발표요지집
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• pp.169-171
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• 2004

Interannual and decadal scale body size of Pacific saury, catch and catch per unit effort were examined to investigate the environmental effects on the stock structure and abundance in the Tsushima Warm Current region. Interannual changes in thermal conditions are responsible for the different occurrence (catch) rates of sized group of the fish. Changes in body size due to environmental variables lead the stock to be homogeneous during the period of high abundance, while one of the reminder cohorts supports the stock during the period of low level of abundance. Migration circuits of two cohorts of saury stock are hypothesized on the basis of short life span and spatio-temporal changes in stock structure in normal environmental conditions. Changes in upper ocean structure and production cycles by the decadal scale climate changes lead changes in stock structure and recruitment, resulting in the fluctuation of saury abundance. Hypothesized mechanism of the effects of climate changes on the stock structure and abundance is illustrated on the basis of changes in thermal regime and production cycle.

• The Korean Journal of Ecology
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.809-814
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• 1998

Changes of annual seed production related to climate change were studied for 12 years in Piagol, a riparian valley in Mt. Jiri. Sixty-four seed traps (sized 0.5 ${\times}$ 0.5 $m^{2}$) were set up on the forest floor of surveyed area. Seeds were collected from these traps at an interval of 15 days from September to November since 1984. Vegetation of the study area was mainly consisted of the naturally regenerated Carpinus tschonoskii in the tree layer. Acer mono, Quercus serrata, Carpinus laxiflora and Symplocos chinensis also appeared in the same layer. Maximum production occurred in 1984 and 1994. As a result of comparing seed production with local climate factors for 12 years, seed productivity and the year of maximum production of Carpinus forest were merely related with precipitation, air temperature and duration of sunshine among local climate factors. Duration of sunshine was, however, not contributed to periodically high productivity of seed of riparian valley carpinus forest.