• Title/Summary/Keyword: Climate change risk assessment

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Public Awareness and Acceptance of Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (이산화탄소 포집 및 저장에 대한 대중의 인식과 수용도)

  • Lee, Sang-Il;Sung, Joosik;Hwang, Jin Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.469-481
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    • 2012
  • CCS(Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage) is considered as the most effective counterplan in the mitigation of climate change. Even though the risk of leakage of $CO_2$ stored in the geologic formation is very low, the public is expected to disagree with the initiation of a CCS project without proper management plans ensuring the safety. In this study, recognition of laypeople were surveyed about CCS, climate change, characteristics of carbon dioxide, storage concepts, ground pressure, the impact of carbon dioxide, and carbon dioxide for leakage. Thereafter the factors that could affect to recognition of CCS were analyzed by regression analysis. A survey was carried out to find out the public understanding and awareness about climate change and CCS. It is the purpose of this study to propose appropriate risk management strategies based on the findings from the survey.

Comparison of Disaster Vulnerability Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Heat Wave Disasters (폭염재해의 재해취약성분석 및 리스크 평가 비교)

  • Yu-Jeong SEOL;Ho-Yong KIM
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2023
  • Recently, the frequency and intensity of heat waves due to the increase in climate change temperature are increasing. Therefore, this study tried to compare the evaluation process and evaluation results of the heat wave disaster evaluation, which is the government's analysis of the heat wave disaster vulnerability and the risk evaluation method recently emphasized by the IPCC. The analysis of climate change disaster vulnerability is evaluated based on manuals and guidelines prepared by the government. Risk evaluation can be evaluated as the product of the possibility of a disaster and its impact, and it is evaluated using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation based on Bayesian estimation method, which uses prior information to infer posterior probability. As a result of the analysis, the two evaluation results for Busan Metropolitan City differed slightly in the spatial distribution of areas vulnerable to heat waves. In order to properly evaluate disaster vulnerable areas due to climate change, the process and results of climate change disaster vulnerability analysis and risk assessment must be reviewed, and consider each methodology and countermeasures must be prepared.

Application of SAD Curves in Assessing Climate-change Impacts on Spatio-temporal Characteristics of Extreme Drought Events (극한가뭄의 시공간적 특성에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 평가하기 위한 SAD 곡선의 적용)

  • Kim, Hosung;Park, Jinhyeog;Yoon, Jaeyoung;Kim, Sangdan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.6B
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    • pp.561-569
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the impact of climate change on extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate. The depth-area-duration analysis for characterizing an extreme precipitation event provides a basis for analysing drought events when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future monthly precipitation time series is based on a KMA regional climate model which has a $27km{\times}27km$ spatial resolution, and the drought severity is computed using the standardized precipitation index. As a result, agricultural drought risk is likely to increase especially in short duration, while hydrologic drought risk will greatly increase in all durations. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

Effects of Clime Change on Spatio-Temporal Behavior of Drought Using SAD Analysis (SAD 해석을 이용한 기후변화가 가뭄의 시공간적 거동에 미치는 영향분석)

  • Choi, Chi-Hyun;Choi, Dae-Gyu;Kim, Eung-Seock;Kim, Sang-Dan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the impact of climate change on the spatio-temporal behavior of extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate conditions. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future climate is based on two GCMs(CGCM3.1-T63 and CSIRO-MK3.0). As a result, in the case of CGCM3.1-T63 future drought events are similar to the present, but in the case of CSIRO-MK3.0 future drought risk is likely to increase. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

Prediction of Landslides Occurrence Probability under Climate Change using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모형을 이용한 기후변화에 따른 산사태 발생가능성 예측)

  • Kim, Hogul;Lee, Dong-Kun;Mo, Yongwon;Kil, Sungho;Park, Chan;Lee, Soojae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2013
  • Occurrence of landslides has been increasing due to extreme weather events(e.g. heavy rainfall, torrential rains) by climate change. Pyeongchang, Korea had seriously been damaged by landslides caused by a typhoon, Ewiniar in 2006. Moreover, the frequency and intensity of landslides are increasing in summer due to torrential rain. Therefore, risk assessment and adaptation measure is urgently needed to build resilience. To support landslide adaptation measures, this study predicted landslides occurrence using MaxEnt model and suggested susceptibility map of landslides. Precipitation data of RCP 8.5 Climate change scenarios were used to analyze an impact of increase in rainfall in the future. In 2050 and 2090, the probability of landslides occurrence was predicted to increase. These were due to an increase in heavy rainfall and cumulative rainfall. As a result of analysis, factors that has major impact on landslide appeared to be climate factors, prediction accuracy of the model was very high(92%). In the future Pyeongchang will have serious rainfall compare to 2006 and more intense landslides area expected to increase. This study will help to establish adaptation measure against landslides due to heavy rainfall.

A Study on Disaster Risk Assessment in the Urban Open Spaces (도시 녹지 공간의 재해 위험도 평가 연구)

  • Yu, Joo-Eun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.43 no.5
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2015
  • This study examined disaster risk from climate change in urban open spaces. This study conducted an assessment depending on type of damage and type of open space, subcategorizing it into flood damage and wind damage, flat park and mountainous park, and classified the assessment items by type into natural factor, artificial factor, and social factor for the purpose of analysis. Our major findings from this study are as follows: To look at the standardized score for the disaster risk from flood damages in the case of a flat park, Asian Park was higher at 55.800 point than Seoul Forest at 51.775 point, and in the case of mountainous parks, Dogok Park was at 58.428 point and Baebongsan Park was at 58.374 point. To look at the standardized score for disaster risk from wind damage, in the case of a flat park, Asian Park was higher at 64.763 point than Seoul Forest at 61.054 point, and in the case of mountainous parks, Baebongsan Park was higher at 58.533 point than Dogok Park at 55.459 point. This study raised a question about the necessity for and value of this disaster risk assessment in open space from damages caused by climate change, established an assessment model for disaster risk from damages in open spaces only to attempt risk assessment. Disaster risk of urban green space was enhanced.

Development of Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Kurunegala City, Sri Lanka (스리랑카 Kurunegala시의 기후변화 적응 계획 개발)

  • Reyes, Nash Jett DG.;Cho, Hanna;Geronimo, Franz Kevin F.;Jeon, Minsu;Kim, Leehyung
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.354-364
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    • 2019
  • Sri Lanka is an island nation susceptible to climate-related disasters and extreme weather events. Kurunegala City is the developing capital city of the North-Western Province of Sri Lanka. Changes in rainfall patterns and a steadily increasing annual average temperature amounting to 0.69±0.37℃ were observed in the city area. Generally, urban areas are at risk due to the lack of climate change adaptation provisions incorporated in the development plans. This study was conducted to investigate the characteristics of Krunegala City, Sri Lanka and develop an appropriate climate change adaptation plan for the city. Site investigation and qualitative risk assessment were conducted to devise a plan relevant to the climate change adaptation needs of the city. Qualitative risk analyses revealed that drinking water, water resources, and health and infrastructure risks were among the major concerns in Kurunegala City. Low impact development (LID) technologies were found to be applicable to induce non-point source pollutant reduction, relieve urban heat island phenomenon, and promote sound water circulation systems. These technologies can be effective means of alleviating water shortage and reducing urban temperature. The measures and strategies presented in this study can serve as reference for developing climate change adaptation plans in areas experiencing similar adverse effects of climate change.

Vulnerability Assessment of Landslide by Heavy Rain to Establish Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Local Governments (지자체 기후변화 적응계획 수립지원을 위한 집중호우에 의한 산사태 취약성 평가)

  • Lee, Dong-kun;Kim, Ho Gul;Baek, Gyoung Hye;Seo, Changwan;Kim, Jaeuk;Song, Changkeun;Yu, Jeong Ah
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.39-50
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    • 2012
  • KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration) projected that annual mean temperatures of South Korea will rise $3.8^{\circ}C$ and the annual total precipitation will increase by 17 percent by 2100. Rainfall is concentrated during the summer in South Korea. Thus the risk of landslide by heavy rain is expected to increase. After the landslide of Mt. Umyeon occurred in July 2011, disaster of forest sector is highlighted. Therefore vulnerability assessment of landslide is urgent. However, vulnerability assessment based on local governments was not done yet. In this study, we assess vulnerability of landslide by heavy rain for local governments. We used several scenarios to consider uncertainty of climate change. Through this study, local governments can use the results to establish adaptation plans. Also, the results could be used to decrease vulnerability of landslide.

Economic Assessment for Flood Control Infrastructure under Climate Change : A Case Study of Imjin River Basin (기후변화를 고려한 홍수방재시설물의 경제성분석 : 임진강 유역사례)

  • Kim, Kyeongseok;Oh, Seungik
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2017
  • In Imjin River basin, three floods occurred between 1996 and 1999, causing many casualties and economic losses of 900 billion won. In Korea, flood damage is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. This study used the climate scenarios to estimate future flood damage costs and suggested a real options-based economic assessment method. Using proposed method, the flood control infrastructures in Imjin River basin were selected as a case study site to analyze the economic feasibility of the investment. Using RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) climate scenarios, the future flood damage costs were estimated through simulated rainfall data. This study analyzed the flood reduction benefits through investment in the flood control infrastructures. The volatility of flood damage reduction benefits were estimated assuming that the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 climate scenarios would be realized in the future. In 2071, the project option value would be determined by applying an extension option to invest in an upgrading that would allow the project to adapt to the flood of the 200-year return period. The results of the option values show that the two investment scenarios are economically feasible and the project under RCP8.5 climate scenario has more flood damage reduction benefits than RCP4.5. This study will help government decision makers to consider the uncertainty of climate change in the economic assessment of flood control infrastructures using real options analysis. We also proposed a method to quantify climate risk factors into economic values by using rainfall data provided by climate scenarios.

A Survey of Ecological Knowledge and Information for Climate Change Adaptation in Korea - Focused on the Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change - (기후변화 적응정책 관련 생태계 지식정보 수요와 활용도 증진 방향 - 생태계 기후변화 리스크 평가 및 적응대책을 중심으로 -)

  • Yeo, Inae;Hong, Seungbum
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.26-36
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed at investigating present research and knowledge-base on climate change adaptation in ecosystem sector and analyzed the current status of basic information on ecosystem that functions as evidence-base of climate change adaptation to deduce the suggestions for the future development for knowledge and information in biodiversity. In this perspective, a questionary survey titled as "the ecological knowledge-base and information needs for climate change adaptation" with the researchers who were engaged with adaptation studies for biodiversity in the ecosystem related-research institutes including national and 17 regional local governments-affiliated agencies in Korea. The results are as follows; current status of utilizing ecological information which supports climate change adaptation strategy, future needs for adaptation knowledge and ecological information, and activation of utilizing ecological information. The majority of respondents (90.7%) replied that the ecological information has high relevance when conducting research on climate change adaptation. However, only half of all respondents (53.2%) agreed with the real viability of current information to the adaptation research. Particularly, urgent priority for researchers was deduced as intensifying knowledge-base and constructing related information on 'ecosystem change from climate change (productivity, community structure, food chain, phenology, range distribution, and number of individuals) with the overall improvement of information contents and its quality. The respondents emphasized with the necessity of conducting field surveys of local ecosystem and constructing ecosystem inventories, advancing monitoring designs for climate change in ecosystem, and case studies for regional ecosystem changes with the guidance or guidelines for monitoring ecosystem change to enhance the quality of adaptation research and produce related information. In terms of activation for ecological information usage, national and local adaptation network should be working based on the integrated ecological platform necessary to support exchanges of knowledge and information and to expand ecosystem types in time and spatial dimension.