• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.391-404
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• 2021

본 연구에서는 최신의 연구 트렌드인 빅데이터와 인공지능을 농업분야에 접목하여 유전자 알고리즘(GA)과 전지구 기후 재분석 자료를 활용한 마늘 생산량의 장기 예측 모형을 개발하고 그 예측성능을 평가해 보았다. 해당 모형은 마늘의 파종량을 수정할 수 있는 11월에 예측 자료를 생산하므로, 마늘의 생산 시기와 시간공간적으로 떨어진 전지구 기후 재분석 자료로부터 마늘생산량의 예측 인자로 활용할 수 있는 시그널을 찾아 장기적 마늘 생산량 예측에 활용하였다. 그 결과 결정론적 예측과 확률론적 예측 모두 마늘 생산량의 경년변동성을 통계적으로 99% 신뢰수준에서 관측과 유사하게 모의하였으며, 범주형 예측에서도 이분위 예측에서 93.3%, 삼분위 예측에서 73.3%의 적중률을 보이며 우수한 예측 성능을 나타내었다. 또한, 예측인자들 사이의 선형 및 비선형적 관계를 모두 고려하는 GA방법을 사용하였을 때, 선형적 앙상블 방법을 적용하였을 때 보다 높은 예측성능과 안정적인 예측결과를 보이는 것을 알 수 있다. 본 연구에서 개발된 마늘 생산량 예측 모형은 기존의 단기예측 위주의 농산물 생산량 예측의 한계를 극복하고 한 해의 농사가 시작되기 전 잠재 생산량을 전망 정보를 생산하여 농산물의 수요·공급 및 가격안정화를 위한 장기적 계획을 수립하는 것에 도움이 될 것으로 생각된다.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.147-157
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• 2013

Rice is a main crop and rice field is the most important farmland in Korea. This study was conducted to propose the methodology assessing impact and vulnerability on rice production by climate change at the regional and national level in Korea. We evaluated a vulnerability of rice paddy according to the outbreak of a main disease and pest of a rice plant. As results, Jeju-do, Gyeongsangnam-do, and Jeollanam-do were more vulnerable area than others. In contrast, the southern central region including Gyeonggi-do was less vulnerable than others. The vulnerable index was significantly higher in 2050s (0.5589) than in present (0.3500). This result showed that the vulnerable to the disease and pest enlarge in the future. The adaptive capacity highly contributed to the vulnerability assessment index. The daily maximum temperature of June and the daily average temperature from May to August also contributed the climate exposure index. The area of occurring sheath blight, rice leaf blast and striped rice borer was related to the system sensitivity index. The ability of water supply (readjustment area of arable land per paddy field area) and rice production technique (rice yield per hectare) were the highly contributed variables to the adaption capacity index.

• 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.64-69
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• 2013

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the present supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea. Result of this research may improve consistency and reliability of simulation weather data or climate change in order to take advantage of SRES and PRECIS QUMP. It is expected that these calculated test reference years will be useful to the designers of solar energy systems, as well as those who need daily solar radiation data for South Korea. Also, those results may contribute zero carbon and design of sustainable architecture establishing future typical weather data that should be gone ahead to energy efficient building design using renewable energy systems.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2005년도 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.138-142
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• 2005

The change of precipitation and temperature due to the global. warming eventually caused the variation of water availability in terms of potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and runoff. In this reason national long-term water resource planning should be considered the effect of climate change. Study of AOGCM-based scenario to proposed the plausible future states of the climate system has become increasingly important for hydrological impact assessment. Future climate changes over East Asia are projected from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) method (Min et al. 2004). MME method is used to reduce the uncertainty of individual models. However, the uncertainty increases are larger over the small area than the large area. It is demonstrated that the temperature increases is larger over continental area than oceanic area in the 21st century.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제23권2호
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• pp.101-111
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• 2014

The research was carried out in order to find climate factors which determine the distribution of Neolitsea sericea, and the potential habitats (PHs) under the current climate and three climate change scenario by using species distribution models (SDMs). Four climate factors; the minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC), the warmth index (WI), summer precipitation (PRS), and winter precipition (PRW) : were used as independent variables for the model. Three general circulation models under A1B emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the 2050s (2040~2069) and 2080s (2070~2099). Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for N. sericea. The model of distribution for N. sericea constructed by SDMs showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month (TMC) is a major climate factor in determining the distribution of N. sericea. The area above the $-4.4^{\circ}C$ of TMC revealed high occurrence probability of the N. sericea. Future PHs for N. sericea were projected to increase respectively by 4 times, 6.4 times of current PHs under 2050s and 2080s. It is expected that the potential of N. sericea habitats is expanded gradually. N. sericea is applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula. N. sericea is necessary to be monitored of potential habitats.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.73-86
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• 1995

This paper demonstrates Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has to be applied for development projects with regard to the ecological, economical and social aspects before any decisions made in the project. Korea has confronted various environmental problems during the last fifteen years, even though EIA has been enacted since 1981. The role of impact assessment in planning and policy processes should be emphasized to investigate the magnitude and intensity of the adverse influences of economic development. In the Seoul Metropolitan Region, it is necessary to apply EIA all urban projects to reduce the adverse effects of urbanization. Special attention should be given to the climatological effects throughout the urbanization process in Korea to keep the urban area energy-efficient. This study intends not only to establish basic data for national-and regional-based land-use policy in the environmental aspects, but also to provide the basic data for the possible climate model (scenarios) that may provide spatial and temporal variability by analyzing the actual climatic record. There is a noticeable impact of urbanization on the atmospheric environment in the Seoul Metropolitan Region. In this sense, the climatic aspect must be taken into consideration in the process of EIA to mitigate the well-known climatic alterations of urbanization. Moreover, the techniques of assessment should be improved by developing geo-reference data sets to build models of the global climate in response to the man-made environmental change.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제44권8호
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• pp.653-666
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 홍수 취약성 평가기법을 제안하고 국내 5대강 유역에 적용 및 평가하고자 하였다. 특히 Multi-Model Ensemble 시나리오를 이용하여 평가 시 발생하는 불확실성을 제시하고자 하였다. 취약성 평가를 위해 우선 유역의 기상, 수문 자료를 비롯한 지형, 인문 사회 정보를 수집, 지표를 산정하여 현재 기후상태 하에서의 홍수 취약성을 평가하였다. 또한 기후변화에 따른 미래 홍수 취약성을 평가하기 위해 기존에 3개 온실가스 배출시나리오, 13개 GCMs (Global Climate Models), 3개 수문모형(2~3개 증발산량 산정방법)으로 생산된 39개 미래 기후시나리오 및 312개 미래 수문시나리오를 이용하여 기준 S0 (1971~2000년) 기간 대비 미래 S1 (2010~2039년), S2 (2040~2069년), S3 (2070~2099년)기간의 홍수 취약성의 시공간적 변화 및 불확실성을 평가하였다. 평가 결과 현재 기후상황에서 홍수에 취약한 지역은 한강, 섬진강, 영산강 하류 지역으로 나타났으며, 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 고려한 결과 낙동강, 금강, 한강 권역에서의 민감도가 가장 크게 변할 것으로 분석되었으나, 기본적으로 섬진강 유역의 적응능력이 낮기 때문에 미래에도 섬진강 유역이 홍수에 가장 취약할 것으로 분석되었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권4호
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• pp.59-68
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• 2014

Climate change influences multiple environmental aspects, certain of which are specifically related to agricultural water resources such as water supply, water management, droughts and floods. Understanding the impact of climate change on reservoirs in relation to the passage of time is an important component of water resource management for stable water supply maintenance. Changes on rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can increases the occurrence of reservoir water shortage and affect the future availability of agricultural water resources. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resources management to evaluate adaptation capability of water supply under the future climate conditions. The purpose of this study is to predict the sustainability of agricultural water demand and supply under future climate change by applying an irrigation vulnerability assessment model to investigate evidence of climate change occurrences at a local scale with respect to potential water supply capacity and irrigation water requirement. Thus, it is a recommended practice in the development of water supply management strategies on reservoir operation under climate change.

• 상하수도학회지
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.61-68
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• 2024

In the context of the Ministry of Environment's 2022 Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Public Institutions, public sewage treatment plants are one of the important targets for climate change response aimed at sustainable water management. In this study, it is applied a modified methodology to four water regeneration centers (public sewage treatment facilities) in charge of sewage treatment in Seoul to analyze the impacts and risks of climate change and discuss priorities for adaptation measures. The results of the study showed that heavy rains, heat waves, and droughts will be the key impacts of climate change, and highlighted the need for measures to mitigate these risks, especially for facility managers.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
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• pp.189-189
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• 2016

To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.