• Title/Summary/Keyword: Chaos application

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Wavelet Thresholding Techniques to Support Multi-Scale Decomposition for Financial Forecasting Systems

  • Shin, Taeksoo;Han, Ingoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Database Society Conference
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    • 1999.06a
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1999
  • Detecting the features of significant patterns from their own historical data is so much crucial to good performance specially in time-series forecasting. Recently, a new data filtering method (or multi-scale decomposition) such as wavelet analysis is considered more useful for handling the time-series that contain strong quasi-cyclical components than other methods. The reason is that wavelet analysis theoretically makes much better local information according to different time intervals from the filtered data. Wavelets can process information effectively at different scales. This implies inherent support fer multiresolution analysis, which correlates with time series that exhibit self-similar behavior across different time scales. The specific local properties of wavelets can for example be particularly useful to describe signals with sharp spiky, discontinuous or fractal structure in financial markets based on chaos theory and also allows the removal of noise-dependent high frequencies, while conserving the signal bearing high frequency terms of the signal. To date, the existing studies related to wavelet analysis are increasingly being applied to many different fields. In this study, we focus on several wavelet thresholding criteria or techniques to support multi-signal decomposition methods for financial time series forecasting and apply to forecast Korean Won / U.S. Dollar currency market as a case study. One of the most important problems that has to be solved with the application of the filtering is the correct choice of the filter types and the filter parameters. If the threshold is too small or too large then the wavelet shrinkage estimator will tend to overfit or underfit the data. It is often selected arbitrarily or by adopting a certain theoretical or statistical criteria. Recently, new and versatile techniques have been introduced related to that problem. Our study is to analyze thresholding or filtering methods based on wavelet analysis that use multi-signal decomposition algorithms within the neural network architectures specially in complex financial markets. Secondly, through the comparison with different filtering techniques' results we introduce the present different filtering criteria of wavelet analysis to support the neural network learning optimization and analyze the critical issues related to the optimal filter design problems in wavelet analysis. That is, those issues include finding the optimal filter parameter to extract significant input features for the forecasting model. Finally, from existing theory or experimental viewpoint concerning the criteria of wavelets thresholding parameters we propose the design of the optimal wavelet for representing a given signal useful in forecasting models, specially a well known neural network models.

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Wavelet Thresholding Techniques to Support Multi-Scale Decomposition for Financial Forecasting Systems

  • Shin, Taek-Soo;Han, In-Goo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Inteligent Information System Society Conference
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    • 1999.03a
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    • pp.175-186
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    • 1999
  • Detecting the features of significant patterns from their own historical data is so much crucial to good performance specially in time-series forecasting. Recently, a new data filtering method (or multi-scale decomposition) such as wavelet analysis is considered more useful for handling the time-series that contain strong quasi-cyclical components than other methods. The reason is that wavelet analysis theoretically makes much better local information according to different time intervals from the filtered data. Wavelets can process information effectively at different scales. This implies inherent support for multiresolution analysis, which correlates with time series that exhibit self-similar behavior across different time scales. The specific local properties of wavelets can for example be particularly useful to describe signals with sharp spiky, discontinuous or fractal structure in financial markets based on chaos theory and also allows the removal of noise-dependent high frequencies, while conserving the signal bearing high frequency terms of the signal. To data, the existing studies related to wavelet analysis are increasingly being applied to many different fields. In this study, we focus on several wavelet thresholding criteria or techniques to support multi-signal decomposition methods for financial time series forecasting and apply to forecast Korean Won / U.S. Dollar currency market as a case study. One of the most important problems that has to be solved with the application of the filtering is the correct choice of the filter types and the filter parameters. If the threshold is too small or too large then the wavelet shrinkage estimator will tend to overfit or underfit the data. It is often selected arbitrarily or by adopting a certain theoretical or statistical criteria. Recently, new and versatile techniques have been introduced related to that problem. Our study is to analyze thresholding or filtering methods based on wavelet analysis that use multi-signal decomposition algorithms within the neural network architectures specially in complex financial markets. Secondly, through the comparison with different filtering techniques results we introduce the present different filtering criteria of wavelet analysis to support the neural network learning optimization and analyze the critical issues related to the optimal filter design problems in wavelet analysis. That is, those issues include finding the optimal filter parameter to extract significant input features for the forecasting model. Finally, from existing theory or experimental viewpoint concerning the criteria of wavelets thresholding parameters we propose the design of the optimal wavelet for representing a given signal useful in forecasting models, specially a well known neural network models.

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Design of an RFID Communication Protocol Using Synchronized Chaotic Systems (동기화된 혼돈시스템을 이용한 RFID 통신 프로토콜 설계)

  • Yim, Geo-Su
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.451-457
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    • 2016
  • To improve security in the data communication field, many studies on the application of chaotic signals to encryption have been conducted in recent years. In this study, a new security protocol where the initial value sensitivity and noise similarity of chaotic signals have been applied to an RFID communication channel was designed. In the case of chaotic systems, if the initial values become identical, the same signals are generated at the same time after that point even though the two systems have been calculated independently. Therefore, an unpredictable security channel can be produced based on such characteristics. However, a security channel can be produced only when an initial value is shared in advance, and thus there is a potential problem of infringement during the transmission of the initial value. To resolve this problem, a method in which a certain proportion of new chaotic signals are applied to two chaotic systems for communication and are then synchronized after some time was proposed. This new method can conceal the initial value, and thus can resolve the problem of the existing communication method using chaotic signals. The designed method was verified with the encryption and decryption of images. It is expected that a more secure RFID system could be established by applying the communication protocol proposed in this study to insecure RFID communication channels.

A Study on Hybrid Expressed in Modern Fashion - Focusing on the End of 1990s - (현대패션에 표현된 하이브리드 경향 연구 - 1990년대 후반을 중심으로 -)

  • 임영자;한윤숙
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.113-134
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    • 2001
  • This study was carried out with an objective to prepare the framework of conformity for the 21st century modern fashion, which is interactive with mankind, based on a position that the 21st century contemporary fashion with its amalgamating trend of diversified artistic forms may not be elucidated on a standpoint centering on one certain modality. The hybrid fashion trend of historical modality which provides freedom and satisfaction in creation of an individuals expressive power in expressing true desire of mans inside through man-centered thought of the times has made multifarious motives of the past and present fragmentary. It thus extracts inner divisions and the concept of consolidation through three-dimensional form. Modern fashion is newly interpreted by the material and details of high technologies. and is harmonized by mix and match with various expressions. By having it, it is being expressed together with many types of dresses and ornaments. Modern fashion is being expressed together with many types of dresses and ornaments by new interpretations with the material and details of high technologies and by being harmonized with mix and match with various expressions. The hybrid fashion design trend of regional elements formed by stimuli and contacts of diverse local culture by globalization of network that was achieved by scientific technologies of the contemporary information society has disintegrated varied boundaries in the conventional culture by the latest communication technology-new media on the basis of newly created culture. The fact that regional elements could be expressed as if they were interrelated without each being deprived of originality may be explained with an interpretation on pluralism. The hybrid fashion design trend of cultural aspect, which manifests in the background of scientific technological culture as it transcends the societal-cultural boundaries based on the de-centralization theory of Frederic Jameson, has supplemented the imperfect meanings through conversional correlation with other forms and internal program changes. The middle stratal and polyhedral characteristics are seen as each cultural element is dismantled and reassembled by application of 'multiple-time point expression'. Design forming method is not to bring destruction from outside, but to embrace instability and chaos through radical dismantling of the inside. and to pursue diversity and openness. Thus. it is implemented by an approach that takes the role of design process. In communication of discontinuity, continuity was dismantled through forms of mixing, overlap, perversion, insertion and coincidence.

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BDS Statistic: Applications to Hydrologic Data (BDS 통계: 수문자료에의 응용)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Su;Gang, Du-Seon;Kim, Jong-U;Kim, Jung-Hun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.769-777
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    • 1998
  • In this study, various time series are analyzed to check nonlinearities of the data. The nonlinearity of a system can be investigated by testing the randomness of the time series data. To test the randomness, four nonparametric test statistics and a new test statistic, called the BDS statistic are used and the results and the results are compared. The Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) statistic is originated from the statistical properties of the correlation integral which is used for searching for chaos and has been shown very effective in distinguishing nonlinear structures in dynamic systems from random structures. As a result of application to linear and nonlinear models which are well known, the BDS statistic is found to be more effective than nonparametric test statistics in identifying nonlinear structure in the time series. Hydrologic time series data are fitted to ARMA type models and the statistics are applied to the residuals. The results show that the BDS statistic can distinguish chaotic nonlinearity from randomness and that the BDS statistic can also be used for verifying the validity of the fitted model.

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Development of a Fault-tolerant IoT System Based on the EVENODD Method (EVENODD 방법 기반 결함허용 사물인터넷 시스템 개발)

  • Woo, Min-Woo;Park, KeeHyun;An, Donghyeok
    • Asia-pacific Journal of Multimedia Services Convergent with Art, Humanities, and Sociology
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.263-272
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    • 2017
  • The concept of Internet of Things (IoT) has been increasingly popular these days, and its areas of application have been broadened. However, if the data stored in an IoT system is damaged and cannot be recovered, our society would suffer considerable damages and chaos. Thus far, most of the studies on fault-tolerance have been focused on computer systems, and there has not been much research on fault-tolerance for IoT systems. In this study, therefore, a fault-tolerance method in IoT environments is proposed. In other words, based on the EVENODD method, one of the traditional fault-tolerance methods, a fault-tolerance storage and recovery method for the data stored in the IoT server is proposed, and the method is implemented on an oneM2M IoT system. The fault-tolerance method proposed in this paper consists of two phases - fault-tolerant data storage and recovery. In the fault-tolerant data storage phase, some F-T gateways are designated and fault-tolerant data are distributed in the F-T gateways' storage using the EVENODD method. In the fault-tolerant recovery phase, the IoT server initiates the recovery procedure after it receives fault-tolerant data from non-faulty F-T gateways. In other words, an EVENODD array is reconstructed and received data are merged to obtain the original data.

The Records and Archives Administrative Reform in China in 1930s (1930년대 중국 문서당안 행정개혁론의 이해)

  • Lee, Won-Kyu
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.10
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    • pp.276-322
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    • 2004
  • Historical interest in China in 1930s has been mostly focused on political characteristic of the National Government(國民政府) which was established by the KMT(中國國民黨) as a result of national unification. It is certain that China had a chance to construct a modern country by the establishment of the very unified revolutionary government. But, it was the time of expanding national crises that threatened the existence of the country such as the Manchurian Incident and the Chinese-Japanese War as well as the chaos of the domestic situation, too. So it has a good reason to examine the characteristic and pattern of the response of the political powers of those days. But, as shown in the recent studies, the manifestation method of political power by the revolutionary regime catches our attention through the understanding of internal operating system. Though this writing started from the fact that the Nationalist Government executed the administrative reform which aimed at "administrative efficiency" in the middle of 1930s, but it put stress on the seriousness of the problem and its solution rather than political background or results. "Committee on Administrative Efficiency(行政效率委員會)", the center of administrative reform movement which was established in 1934, examined the plan to execute the reform through legislation by the Executive Council(行政院) on the basis of the results of relevant studies. They claimed that the construction of a modern country should be performed by not political revolution anymore but by gradual improvement and daily reform, and that the operation of the government should become modern, scientific and efficient. There were many fields of administrative reform subjects, but especially, the field of records and archives adminstration(文書檔案行政) was studied intensively from the initial stage because that subject had already been discussed intensively. They recognized that records and archives were the basic tool of work performance and general activity but an inefficient field in spite of many input staff members, and most of all, archival reform bring about less conflicts than the fields of finance, organization and personnel. When it comes to the field of records adminstration, the key subjects that records should be written simply, the process of record treatment should be clear and the delay of that should be prevented were already presented in a records administrative meeting in 1922. That is, the unified law about record management was not established, so each government organization followed a conventional custom or performed independent improvement. It was through the other records administrative workshop of the Nationalist Government in 1933 when the new trend was appeared as the unified system improvement. They decided to unify the format of official records, to use marker and section, to unify the registration of receipt records and dispatch records and to strengthen the examination of records treatment. But, the method of records treatment was not unified yet, so the key point of records administrative reform was to establish a unified and standard record management system for preventing repetition by simplifying the treatment procedure and for intensive treatment by exclusive organizations. From the foundation of the Republic of China to 1930s, there was not big change in the field of archives administration, and archives management methods were prescribed differently even in the same section as well as same department. Therefore, the point at issue was to centralize scattered management systems that were performed in each section, to establish unified standard about filing and retention period allowance and to improve searching system through classification and proper number allowance. Especially, the problem was that each number system and classification system bring about different result due to dual operation of record registration and archives registration, and that strict management through mutual contrast, searching and application are impossible. Besides, various problems such as filing tools, arrangement method, preservation facilities & equipment, lending service and use method were raised also. In the process this study for the system improvement of records and archives management, they recognized that records and archives are the identical thing and reached to create a successive management method of records and archives called "Records and Archives Chain Management Method(文書檔案連鎖法)" as a potential alternative. Several principles that records and archives management should be performed unitedly in each organization by the general record recipient section and the general archives section under the principle of task centralization, a consistent classification system should be used by classification method decided in advance according to organizational constitution and work functions and an identical number system should be used in the process of record management stage and archive management stage by using a card-type register were established. Though, this "Records and Archives Chain Management Method" was developed to the stage of test application in several organizations, but it was not adopted as a regular system and discontinued. That was because the administrative reform of the Nationalist Government was discontinued by the outbreak of the Chinese-Japanese War. Even though the administrative reform in the middle of 1930s didn't produce practical results but merely an experimentation, it was verified that the reform against tradition and custom conducted by the Nationalist Government that aimed for the construction of a modern country was not only a field of politics, but on the other hand, the weak basis of the government operation became the obstacle to the realization of the political power of the revolutionary regime. Though the subject of records and archives administrative reform was postponed to the future, it should be understood that the consciousness of modern records and archives administration and overall studies began through this examination of administrative reform.

Sixty Years History of the Korean Geographical Society as a Numerical Record (숫자로 본 대한지리학회 60년)

  • Hyong, Kie-Joo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.40 no.6 s.111
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    • pp.748-761
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    • 2005
  • This study attempts to describe and periodinate the sixty years history of Korean Geographical Society. For the purpose, several numerical records concerned with the society were employed. The Korean Geographical Society was established in 1945 as a first academic society in geography. The international participation of Korean geographers started when it applied for the IGU membership in 1959. Next year, Korean's application was approved at the 19th IGC in Stockholm. The 40 years later, Korea came to host the 29th IGC in Seoul. This means that the activity of Korean geographers has been vigorous during the 40 years in accordance with high growth of Korean economy. The number of the society member reached 116 in the latter part of 1960s. It grew steadily from 1970s to 1990s and now amounts to around one thousand. It is believed that such trend is associated with the increase of geographical department and the development of graduate programs during past 40 years in Korea. The number of the advanced degree holders was only 2 in 1960, and now reachs 338 among which 166($43\%$) obtained from the foreign country. The Int issue of the society journal 'Geagraphy' -the title was changed to 'Journal of the KGS' in 1993-was published in 1963. It has gradually developed into the annual for $1966{\~}1973$, the semi-annual for $1974{\~}1990$, the quaterly for $1991{\~}1997$, and the hi-monthly until 2005. One issue per year has been published in English since 1993. The annual number of papers accepted by the editorial board has increased from 7 in 1960s-1970s to 52 in the new millennium. In terms of the specialty distribution of total 725 papers after 1963, many Korean geographers have been preferable to the field of socio-economic and urban geography as their major, and next histro-cultural and physical geography. Recently, a growing number of younger geographers are more interested in such diversified fields as ecological geography, socio-historical geography, applied geography concerned with GIS technic, geography education and so on. Such trend is a reflection of the new era which is characterized by diversity, software, high technology, globalization and others. The sixty years history of the society nay be summarized into the five phases of periodization: (1) establishment and chaos($1945{\~}1959$), (2) reconstruction(1960${\~}$1969), (3)reorganization(1970${\~}$1989), (4) jump and rush($1990{\~}1999$), (5)globalization($2000{\~}\;$).

The Limitation of Air Carriers' Cargo and Baggage Liability in International Aviation Law: With Reference to the U.S. Courts' Decisions (국제항공법상 화물.수하물에 대한 운송인의 책임상한제도 - 미국의 판례 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • Moon, Joon-Jo
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.109-133
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    • 2007
  • The legal labyrinth through which we have just walked is one in which even a highly proficient lawyer could easily become lost. Warsaw Convention's original objective of uniformity of private international aviation liability law has been eroded as the world community ha attempted again to address perceived problems. Efforts to create simplicity and certainty of recovery actually may have created less of both. In any particular case, the issue of which international convention, intercarrier agreement or national law to apply will likely be inconsistent with other decisions. The law has evolved faster for some nations, and slower for others. Under the Warsaw Convention of 1929, strict liability is imposed on the air carrier for damage, loss, or destruction of cargo, luggage, or goods sustained either: (1) during carriage in air, which is comprised of the period during which cargo is 'in charge of the carrier (a) within an aerodrome, (b) on board the aircraft, or (c) in any place if the aircraft lands outside an aerodrome; or (2) as a result of delay. By 2007, 151 nations had ratified the original Warsaw Convention, 136 nations had ratified the Hague Protocol, 84 had ratified the Guadalajara Protocol, and 53 nations had ratified Montreal Protocol No.4, all of which have entered into force. In November 2003, the Montreal Convention of 1999 entered into force. Several airlines have embraced the Montreal Agreement or the IATA Intercarrier Agreements. Only seven nations had ratified the moribund Guatemala City Protocol. Meanwhile, the highly influential U.S. Second Circuit has rendered an opinion that no treaty on the subject was in force at all unless both affected nations had ratified the identical convention, leaving some cases to fall between the cracks into the arena of common law. Moreover, in the United States, a surface transportation movement prior or subsequent to the air movement may, depending upon the facts, be subject to Warsaw, or to common law. At present, International private air law regime can be described as a "situation of utter chaos" in which "even legal advisers and judges are confused." The net result of this barnacle-like layering of international and domestic rules, standards, agreements, and criteria in the elimination of legal simplicity and the substitution in its stead of complexity and commercial uncertainty, which manifestly can not inure to the efficient and economical flow of world trade. All this makes a strong case for universal ratification of the Montreal Convention, which will supersede the Warsaw Convention and its various reformulations. Now that the Montreal Convention has entered into force, the insurance community may press the airlines to embrace it, which in turn may encourage the world's governments to ratify it. Under the Montreal Convention, the common law defence is available to the carrier even when it was not the sole cause of the loss or damage, again making way for the application of comparative fault principle. Hopefully, the recent entry into force of the Montreal Convention of 1999 will re-establish the international legal uniformity the Warsaw Convention of 1929 sought to achieve, though far a transitional period at least, the courts of different nations will be applying different legal regimes.

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