• Title/Summary/Keyword: Causality

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The analysis for an effect influence between a China's regional firm's export and economic growth - Focused on China economy after the direction of Chinese reform - (중국의 지역별 수출과 경제성장 간의 영향관계 분석 -개혁개방 이후의 중국경제를 중심으로-)

  • Song, Jun;Kim, Soo-Eun;Hwang, Yun-Seop
    • International Commerce and Information Review
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.239-265
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    • 2010
  • After reform and openness action, china has been recorded high rate of increasing in export and continuous economic growth. Also their role in the international economy has been rise. The major reason of these incredible growth of China is the openness by a trade, after all the economic growth of China is evaluated an export-led growth. But, some insist that the growth of China has been accomplished by a domestic-based economy not but an export-led economy. For verification of former insists, using a yearly data, China exports and GDP, from 1979 to 2007 and performs time-series to examine an existence of causality between China's regional exports and GDP. As result of analysis, GDP and exports have two-way causality significantly when not considering region case. After the direction of Chinese reform, the east region has a strong significant relation, which support that export-led growth. While, middle and west region has weak causality between exports and GDP.

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Korea's IT Trade with Major Partners (US, Japan, China) and its Impacts on Domestic Industry (우리나라 주요국(미국, 일본, 중국)과의 IT 무역과 국내 IT 산업으로의 파급효과)

  • Lee, Sang-Yong Tome;Han, Jae-Seung
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.39-59
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    • 2011
  • Information Technology (IT) has been working as an engine of growth in Korea since early 1990's. For the next leap of Korean economy and to overcome worldwide financial crisis, Korea's IT industry needs to find a new breakthrough. In this viewpoint, we tried to empirically analyze the impact of Korea's IT trade on domestic industry. Since Korean government is trying to set up a few free trade agreements (FTA) with major trade partners, more accurate understanding of the impact of FTA is required to find the correct way to promote Korea's IT industry. We first looked at the current status of Korea's IT trade with major partners such as the US, Japan, and China to understand the competitiveness of Korea's IT industry. Having done this, we measured the impact of IT trade on domestic industry using Granger causality test. The results showed that the positive impact of trade is bigger on IT industry than on whole industry. Also, the impact of import turned out to be bigger than that of export. Among the major trade partner countries, the US’s and China's impacts are bigger than Japan's impact. Another notable thing is that IT product import from the US has especially big impact on domestic IT industry. Our findings may have certain implications to the FTA related policy.

A Study on the Internalization of Sensor Technology by Comparison of IT Leading Countries

  • Cho, JaeHyuk
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2020
  • The 4th Industrial Revolution is a revolutionary change through intelligence, big fusion and personalization, and the importance of sensor technology that is the basis of core technology is emerging. This study empirically analyzes the derivation of national strategy for R&D of sensor technology, and draws out the effect of technology internalization effort through strategic R&D activities on technical performance and further on national economy. The research and development results are calculated for each type of technology internalization, and the results of the research and development are verified to establish a structure that contributes to the national economic performance. As a national technology internalization strategy, considering its own R&D investment and joint research and development, we examine the impact of each factor on patents and GDP, focusing on causality and ripple effects. For causality analysis, Grandeur causality analysis shows that R&D investment and joint research and development in all countries have mutual causal relationship with GDP. The implications are as follows. First, it is necessary to establish the policy of national economic development through the internalization of technology and knowledge. Second, it is necessary to establish policies according to the type of knowledge internalization. Third, it will be necessary to create an ecosystem environment based on a virtuous relationship between knowledge internalization and national technology and economic development.

Analysis of Exclusive Causality between Environmental Factors and Cell Number of Cyanobacteria in Guem River (금강 주요지점에서의 환경 인자와 남조류 세포수의 배타적 인과성분석)

  • Kim, Yeonhwa;Lee, EunHyung;Kim, Kyunghyun;Kim, Sanghyun
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.7
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    • pp.937-950
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    • 2016
  • Algal blooming in 4 major rivers introduces substantial impacts to water front activity. Concentrations of algae are increasing at major points along the Geum River. Ecosystem food webs can be affected by algal blooming because blue-green algae release toxic materials. Even though there have been many studies on blue-green algae, its causality to environmental factors has not been completely determined yet. This study analyzed the exclusive correlation between various hydrometeorological, water quality, and hydrologic variables and the cell number of cyanobacteria to understand causality of blue-green algae in the Geum River. A prewhitening process was introduced to remove the autocorrelation structure and periodicity, which is useful to evaluate the effective relationship between two time series.

A Study on Social Carrying Capacity by Normative Approach of Perceived Crowding (혼합지각의 규범적 접근에 의한 사회적 수용능력에 관한 연구 : - 내장산국립공원 단풍이용객 대상의 사례연구 -)

  • Park Chung-In
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.33 no.1 s.108
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    • pp.10-18
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    • 2005
  • The main concept of social carrying capacity is based on the principle that 'there are limits to the number of users a given recreation site can accommodate in order to provide quality of recreation experience'. The quality of the experience is revealed as user's satisfaction and perceived crowding. In this respect, studies of social carrying capacity have been frequently conducted by measuring perceived crowding and satisfaction. The purpose of this study is to identify the variables affecting perceived crowding, and causality bet-ween satisfaction and perceived crowding. Four hundred seventy six visitors were selected at Naejangsan National park on peak day of autumn excursion through on-site survey. The collected data were applied by factor analysis for categorizing the research variables, and multiple regression for finding the causality among variables. The study results are follows. The expectation of crowding, as a normative variable for perceived crowding, are categorized by three factors; circulation, user facility, and landscape. The circulation factor is the most powerful affecting perceived crowding among three factor. The landscape factor, however, do not have statistical significance on perceived crowding. The causality between satisfaction and perceived crowding is found. Although this relation is significant in statistics, magnitude of the coefficient is very small. It might be interpreted that satisfaction cannot be predicted simply from a user's perception of crowding, but a multi-dimensional concept such as adaptation and coping behavior.

Is there a causal effect between agricultural production and carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana?

  • Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa;Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.40-54
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    • 2017
  • According to FAO, "agricultural sectors are particularly exposed to the effects of climate change and increases climate variability". As a result, the study makes an attempt to answer the question: Is there a causal effect between agricultural production and carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana? By employing a time series data spanning from 1960 to 2015 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method. There was evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship running from copra production, corn production, green coffee production, milled rice production, millet production, palm kernel production and sorghum production to carbon dioxide emissions. The short-run equilibrium relationship shows that, a 1% increase in copra and green coffee production will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 0.22% and 0.03%, a 1% increase in millet and sorghum production will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 0.13% and 0.11% in the short-run while a 31% of future fluctuations in carbon dioxide emissions are due to shocks in corn production. There was bidirectional causality between milled rice production and carbon dioxide emissions, millet production and carbon dioxide emissions and, sorghum production and carbon dioxide emissions; and a unidirectional causality running from corn production to carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide emissions to palm kernel production.

Does Asymmetric Relation Exist between Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in Bangladesh? Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Analysis

  • QAMRUZZAMAN, Md.;KARIM, Salma;WEI, Jianguo
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.115-128
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    • 2019
  • The study aims to investigate the pattern of relationships such as symmetric or asymmetric, between exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Bangladesh by applying Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL. In this study, we employed quarterly data for the period of 1974Q1 to 2016Q4. Data were collected and aggregated from various sources namely, Bangladesh Economic Review published by Ministry of Finance and statistical yearbook published by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics and an annual report published by Bangladesh Bank. The relationship between exchange rate and FDI inflows attract immense interest in the recent periods, especially for developing countries' perspective. The results of the study ascertain the long run relationship between FDI, exchange rate, monetary policy, and fiscal policy. Considering the asymmetric assumption, the findings from NARDL confirm the existence of a long-run asymmetric relationship in the empirical equation. In the long run, it is observed that positive change that is the appreciation of exchange rate against USD decrease FDI inflows and negative shocks results in grater inflows of FDI, however, the positive shocks produce higher intensity that negative shocks in Exchange rate. For directional causality, the coefficients of error correction term confirm long-run causality, in particular, bidirectional causality unveiled between FDI and exchange rate.

Causal Relationship between Military Activities and Musculoskeletal Injuries (군병원 환자의 근골격계손상과 군대활동과의 연관성에 관한 조사)

  • Kim, Jin-Su;Lee, Yeon-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.142-147
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    • 2008
  • The current study investigated the causality between the musculoskeletal injuries of the patients who visited our military hospital and their military-related activities. The surgeon diagnosed the patients and let them answer the questionnaire on pain and causes from April 1, 2008 to May 30, 2008. The included 287 male patients were mean 21 years old(mean height 175 cm and mean weight 69.4Kgf). The visiting time after injury was mean 53 days. The visual analog scale of pain was mean 5.1 points. The 30% of visiting patients answered the most common cause of injury was the military training. The Most common site of injury was the knee, in 38% of patients(111 of 287). Seventy two percent of patients suspected the causality between their injuries and military activities. In military activities, a special stretching program before training, especially for the knee, is required to reduce musculoskeletal injuries. And, the injured military people have to access the medical treat as soon as possible.

Information Arrival between Price Change and Trading Volume in Crude Palm Oil Futures Market: A Non-linear Approach

  • Go, You-How;Lau, Wee-Yeap
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2016
  • This paper is the first of its kind using a non-linear approach based on cross-correlation function (CCF) to investigate the information arrival hypothesis in crude palm oil (CPO) futures market. Based on daily data from 1986 to 2010, our empirical results reveal that: First, the volume of volatility is not a proxy of information flow. Second, dependence causality running from current return to future volume in conditional variance exhibit an asymmetric pattern of time span with different signs of correlation between price and volume series. This finding indicates the presence of noise traders' hypothesis of price-volume interaction in CPO futures market. Both findings suggest that this futures market is weak-form inefficiency. In terms of investors' behavior, they tend to change their expectations on current return based on errors made in previous trade in generating abnormal volume in the subsequent period. As implied, it is advisable for the investors devise their future trading strategies according to time span and changes of return.

Identifying the Chickens-Eggs Statistical Lead-Lag Dilemma (닭-달걀 간 통계적 인과성 논란의 판별)

  • Kim, Tae Ho;Kim, Min Jeong;Lee, Jeen Woan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.3
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    • pp.401-411
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    • 2013
  • This study investigates the controversial chickens-eggs dilemma and empirically performs statistical tests to examine if there exists a causality between them. Granger and Hsiao tests are applied to both level and stationary variables to identify the lead-lag relationships. Each of these test is found to have the robust result where the causality runs from eggs to chickens; in addition, the explanatory power of one variable in variations of the other appears to remain time invariant. The outcome is proved to be valid as the hypothesis test for no structural change in their relationship fails to be rejected.