• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1499-1504
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• 2008

This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.352-362
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• 2016

본 논문에서는 저궤도 위성의 한 예제로써 우주파편 완화 가이드라인을 준수하는 아리랑 2호 위성의 폐기기동에 대한 분석을 수행하였다. 분석은 상용소프트웨어인 STK$^{(R)}$와 ESA의 우주파편 분석 툴 DRAMA를 사용하였으며, 가이드라인 규정 중 '25년 규정'을 만족하는 적정 폐기고도를 산출하였고, 아리랑 2호 위성의 비제어 재진입을 가정하여 내부부품의 생존률 및 지상피해면적을 분석하였다. 마지막으로 비제어 재진입 시 내부부품의 생존을 가정했을 때 다양한 초기궤도 오차를 수렴할 수 있는 적정 재진입 초기궤도를 분석하였다. 분석결과 아리랑 2호 위성은 '25년 규정' 만족을 위해 최소 43km에서 최대 105km의 고도하강이 필요하며, 비제어 재진입 시 질량이 큰 물체나 내열성이 강한 부품이 생존하여 $4.3141m^2$의 피해면적을 야기하였다. 마지막으로 재진입 초기궤도의 승교점경도를 129도로 설정했을 때 일정수준의 오차를 포함하더라도 가이드라인 기준을 만족하는 인명 피해확률을 보여주었다.

• 한국항공우주학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.158-164
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• 2014

IADC의 '25년 규정'에 의해 미션종료 된 저궤도 인공위성은 25년 이내에 지구로 재진입, 소각 폐기되도록 권고하고 있다. 이때 인공위성의 부품일부 또는 다수가 살아남아 지상에 충돌할 경우 인명 및 재산피해를 낼 수 있다. 우리나라의 경우 저궤도 위성으로서 아리랑 인공위성과 과학기술위성을 운용 중에 있으며 임무종료 후에는 모두 대기권 재진입을 통한 폐기처리가 필수이다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 ESA의 DRAMA내부의 SARA(Re-entry Survival and Risk Analysis)모듈을 이용하여 지상피해가 예측되는 크기인 가상위성의 추락궤적 및 생존부품을 분석하고 그에 따른 지상충돌확률, 피해확률을 분석하였다. 분석결과 198.831kg이 생존할 것으로 예상되며 추락지점이 한반도일 경우 전체 피해면적은 $15.2742m^2$, 피해확률은 5.9614E-03(2D)일 것으로 예상된다.

• 해양환경안전학회:학술대회논문집
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• 해양환경안전학회 2004년도 춘계학술발표회
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• pp.13-18
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• 2004

최근 우리나라 연안해역은 선박교통 용량의 대형화로 해상교통이 폭주하고 있다. 이러한 교통혼잡은 연안해역에 대해 인명, 재산, 환경오염등의 심각한 해양사고를 야기한다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 연안의 해양사고를 확률적으로 분석한다. 본 연구의 수행을 위해 해상교통 용량과 기상조건, 해양사고등의 다양한 연관성을 기반으로 원인을 분석하였다. 그리고 해양사고의 형태를 선박의 크기, 선령, 선종등 다양한 관점에서 분류하고 세부적으로 분석하였다.

• 한국지진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국지진공학회 2002년도 추계 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.285-291
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• 2002

This paper proposes the concept and the general framework of the risk-based seismic design. Because earthquakes and the behaviors of structures are very unpredictable, probabilistic seismic design methods have been proposed after deterministic design methods. Considering these changes, we can find that the important point of seismic design is not the structural behavior itself, but the consequence of structural behavior under possible earthquakes. Risk-based seismic design can tell these consequences under any earthquakes. In this paper, structural confidences are considered by using fragility curve, and risk is modeled by failure probability and consequence-property damage cost, casualty cost.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.144-152
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• 2019

According to the National Police Agency, point-to-point speed enforcement system is being installed and operated in 97 sections across the country. It is more effective than other enforcement systems in terms of stabilizing the traffic flow and inhibiting the kangaroo effect. But it is only 5.1% of the total enforcement systems. The National Police Agency is also aware that its operation ratio is very low and it is necessary to expand point-to-point speed enforcement system. Hence, this study aims to provide the expansion basis of the point-to-point speed enforcement operation through analysis of the quantitative effects and development the accident prediction model. Firstly, this study analyzed the effectiveness of point-to-point speed enforcement system. Naive before-after study and comparison group method(C-G Method) were used as methodologies of analyzing the effectiveness. The result of using the naive before-after study was significant. Total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 42.15%, 70.64% and 45.30% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 6.92% and 20.50%p respectively. Moreover, using the C-G method total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 31.35%, 66.62% and 10.04% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 3.49% and 56.65%p respectively. Secondly, this study developed a prediction model for the probability of casualty crash. It was dependant on factors of traffic volume, ratio of exceeding speed limit, ratio of heavy vehicle, ratio of curve section, and presence of point-to-point speed enforcement. Finally, this study selected the most danger sections to the major highway and evaluated proper installation sections to the recent installation section by applying the accident prediction model. The results of this study are expected to be useful in establishing the installation standards for the point-to-point speed enforcement system.

• 해양환경안전학회지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.29-34
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• 2004

최근 우리나라 연안해역은 선박교통량의 증가로 인해 해상교통이 폭주하고 있다. 이러한 교통폭주는 연안해역에 대해 인명, 재산, 환경오염 등의 심각한 해양사고를 야기할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 연안의 해양사고를 확률적으로 분석한다. 본 연구의 수행을 위해 해상교통량과 기상조건, 해양사고 등의 다양한 연관성을 기반으로 원인을 분석하였다. 그리고 해양사고의 형태를 선박의 크기, 선령, 선종 등 다양한 관점에서 분류하고 세부적으로 분석하였다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국철도학회 2008년도 춘계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.1524-1530
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• 2008

Generally a road vehicle's wrong entry into level crossing gives rise to hazardous events, the eventual collision with a approaching train depends on the effective operation of safety barriers such a abnormal condition detecting or emergency braking. In this paper, the risk assessment models developed for the level-crossing accidents will be introduced. The definition of hazardous events and the related hazardous factors are identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability of the hazardous events will be evaluated by the FTA, which is based on the accident scenario. For the severity estimation, the critical factors which can effect on the consequence will be reviewed during the ETA. Finally, the number of casualty for the public(vehicle drivers) and the train passengers are converted into an equivalent fatality.

• 수산해양기술연구
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.235-241
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• 2012

The efficiency tests of automatic positioning transmitter (APT) using satellite on life jacket were carried out to minimize casualties of fishermen and to make system optimization for effective SAR (Search and Rescue) operation. As the result of the tests, average position was equaled on the comparison between SPOT using low earth orbit satellite and DGPS (Differential Global Positining System), but standard deviation of DGPS for latitude and longitude were 66.4% and 46.3% smaller than those of SPOT. The position precision of SPOT was almost two times lower than LGT using geostationary satellite to compare 95% circular error probability. However, the success rate of receiver for SPOT was revealed as 86.5~94.1% on the experiments in the South Sea and the West Sea and it was 4.5 times higher than LGT. Therefore, SPOT is expected to contribute greatly to the rapid rescue of victim.

• 한국도로학회논문집
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.107-115
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• 2015

PURPOSES : The purposes of this study are to compare the day and night characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. in Rural Signalized Intersections METHODS : To develop day and night traffic accident models using the Negative Binomial Model, which was constructed for 156 signalized intersections of rural areas, through field investigations and casualty data from the National Police Agency. RESULTS : Among a total of 17 variances, the daytime traffic accident estimate models identified a total of 9 influence factors of traffic accidents. In the case of nighttime traffic accident models, 11 influence factors of traffic accidents were identified. CONCLUSIONS : By comparing the two models, it was determined that the number of main roads was an independent factor for daytime accidents. For nighttime accidents, several factors were independently involved, including the number of entrances to sub-roads, whether left turn lanes existed in major roads, the distances of pedestrian crossings to main roads and sub-roads, lighting facilities, and others. It was apparent that if the same situation arises, the probability of an accident occurring at night is higher than during the day because the speed of travel through intersections in rural areas is somewhat higher at night than during the day.