• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1499-1504
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• 2008

This study shows risk-based evaluation results of casualty accidents for passengers, railway staffs and MOP(Member of public) on the national railway in South Korea. To evaluate risk of these accidents, the hazardous events and the hazardous factors were identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability evaluation model for each hazardous event which was based on the accident appearance scenario was developed by using the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) technique. The probability for each hazardous event was evaluated from the historical data and structured expert judgment. In addition, the severity assessment model utilized by the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) technique was composed of the accident progress scenarios. And the severity for the hazardous events was estimated using fatalities and weighted injuries. The risk assessment model developed can be effectively utilized in defining the risk reduction measures in connection with the option analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.352-362
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• 2016

In this paper, a disposal maneuver which complies the space debris mitigation guideline was analysed for KOMPSAT-2 as an example of LEO satellite. Definition of disposal altitude which comply the '25 year rule', re-entry survivability analysis of KOMPSAT-2 parts inside and casualty area analysis were performed using STK and ESA's DRAMA. Finally, assuming that there were several survival objects during uncontrolled re-entry stage, the re-entry initial orbit elements which show the low casualty probability were found even if there were various uncertainties about the initial orbit. As a result, KOMPSAT-2 should be descended its altitude at least 43km or up to 105km to comply '25 year rule' and there were heavy or heat resistant survival objects which generated $4.3141m^2$ casualty area. And if RAAN of re-entry initial orbit was 129 degree, total casualty probability was lower than standard value of space debris mitigation guideline even if there were uncertainties about the initial orbit.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.158-164
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• 2014

LEO(Low Earth Orbit) Satellite which is discarded should be reentered to atmosphere in 25 years by '25 years rule' of IADC(Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee) Guidelines. If the parts of satellite are survived from severe aerothermodynamic condition, it could damage to human and property. South Korea operates KOMPSAT-2 and STSAT series as LEO satellite. It is necessary to dispose of them by reentering atmosphere. Therefore this paper analyze the trajectory, survivability, casualty area and casualty probability of a virtual LEO satellite using ESA(European Space Agency)'s DRAMA(Debris Risk Assesment and Mitigation Analysis) tool. As a result, it is noted that casuality area is $15.2742m^2$ and casualty probability is 5.9614E-03 then will be survived 198.831kg.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2004.05b
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• pp.13-18
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• 2004

The marine traffic congestion has increased due to the expansion of vessel traffic volume in Korean coastal waterway these days. Heavy traffic could bring serious marine casualties which cause the loss of human lives, properties and marine pollution in coastal area. In this paper. the probability analysis of marine casualties in Korean coastal To achieve this aim, clears up the cause of accident and examines closely the mutual relations among marine casualties, weather condition, and marine traffic volume. These casualties are classified into several pattens or the point of view of ship‘s size, ship’s type and ship‘s age and its characteristics of each patten are described in detail.

• Proceedings of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea Conference
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• 2002.09a
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• pp.285-291
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• 2002

This paper proposes the concept and the general framework of the risk-based seismic design. Because earthquakes and the behaviors of structures are very unpredictable, probabilistic seismic design methods have been proposed after deterministic design methods. Considering these changes, we can find that the important point of seismic design is not the structural behavior itself, but the consequence of structural behavior under possible earthquakes. Risk-based seismic design can tell these consequences under any earthquakes. In this paper, structural confidences are considered by using fragility curve, and risk is modeled by failure probability and consequence-property damage cost, casualty cost.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.34 no.5
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• pp.144-152
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• 2019

According to the National Police Agency, point-to-point speed enforcement system is being installed and operated in 97 sections across the country. It is more effective than other enforcement systems in terms of stabilizing the traffic flow and inhibiting the kangaroo effect. But it is only 5.1% of the total enforcement systems. The National Police Agency is also aware that its operation ratio is very low and it is necessary to expand point-to-point speed enforcement system. Hence, this study aims to provide the expansion basis of the point-to-point speed enforcement operation through analysis of the quantitative effects and development the accident prediction model. Firstly, this study analyzed the effectiveness of point-to-point speed enforcement system. Naive before-after study and comparison group method(C-G Method) were used as methodologies of analyzing the effectiveness. The result of using the naive before-after study was significant. Total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 42.15%, 70.64% and 45.30% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 6.92% and 20.50%p respectively. Moreover, using the C-G method total accidents, EPDOs and casualty crashes decreased by 31.35%, 66.62% and 10.04% respectively. And average speed and the ratio of exceeding speed limit decreased by 3.49% and 56.65%p respectively. Secondly, this study developed a prediction model for the probability of casualty crash. It was dependant on factors of traffic volume, ratio of exceeding speed limit, ratio of heavy vehicle, ratio of curve section, and presence of point-to-point speed enforcement. Finally, this study selected the most danger sections to the major highway and evaluated proper installation sections to the recent installation section by applying the accident prediction model. The results of this study are expected to be useful in establishing the installation standards for the point-to-point speed enforcement system.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.10 no.2 s.21
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• pp.29-34
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• 2004

The marine traffic congestion has increased due to the expansion of vessel traffic volume in Korean coastal waterway these days. Heavy traffic could bring serious marine casualties which cause the loss of human lives, properties and marine pollution in coastal area. In this paper, the probability analysis of marine casualties in Korean coast. To achieve this aim, clears up the cause of accident and examines closely the mutual relations among marine casualties, weather condition, and marine traffic volume. These casualties are classified into several patterns or the point of view of ship's size, ship's type and ship's age and its characteristics of each pattern are described In detail.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2008.06a
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• pp.1524-1530
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• 2008

Generally a road vehicle's wrong entry into level crossing gives rise to hazardous events, the eventual collision with a approaching train depends on the effective operation of safety barriers such a abnormal condition detecting or emergency braking. In this paper, the risk assessment models developed for the level-crossing accidents will be introduced. The definition of hazardous events and the related hazardous factors are identified by the review of the accident history and engineering interpretation of the accident behavior. A probability of the hazardous events will be evaluated by the FTA, which is based on the accident scenario. For the severity estimation, the critical factors which can effect on the consequence will be reviewed during the ETA. Finally, the number of casualty for the public(vehicle drivers) and the train passengers are converted into an equivalent fatality.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.235-241
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• 2012

The efficiency tests of automatic positioning transmitter (APT) using satellite on life jacket were carried out to minimize casualties of fishermen and to make system optimization for effective SAR (Search and Rescue) operation. As the result of the tests, average position was equaled on the comparison between SPOT using low earth orbit satellite and DGPS (Differential Global Positining System), but standard deviation of DGPS for latitude and longitude were 66.4% and 46.3% smaller than those of SPOT. The position precision of SPOT was almost two times lower than LGT using geostationary satellite to compare 95% circular error probability. However, the success rate of receiver for SPOT was revealed as 86.5~94.1% on the experiments in the South Sea and the West Sea and it was 4.5 times higher than LGT. Therefore, SPOT is expected to contribute greatly to the rapid rescue of victim.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.107-115
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• 2015

PURPOSES : The purposes of this study are to compare the day and night characteristics and to develop the models of traffic accidents. in Rural Signalized Intersections METHODS : To develop day and night traffic accident models using the Negative Binomial Model, which was constructed for 156 signalized intersections of rural areas, through field investigations and casualty data from the National Police Agency. RESULTS : Among a total of 17 variances, the daytime traffic accident estimate models identified a total of 9 influence factors of traffic accidents. In the case of nighttime traffic accident models, 11 influence factors of traffic accidents were identified. CONCLUSIONS : By comparing the two models, it was determined that the number of main roads was an independent factor for daytime accidents. For nighttime accidents, several factors were independently involved, including the number of entrances to sub-roads, whether left turn lanes existed in major roads, the distances of pedestrian crossings to main roads and sub-roads, lighting facilities, and others. It was apparent that if the same situation arises, the probability of an accident occurring at night is higher than during the day because the speed of travel through intersections in rural areas is somewhat higher at night than during the day.