• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 한국수자원학회 2017년도 학술발표회
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• pp.155-155
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• 2017

최근 우리나라는 기후변화의 영향으로 다목적댐 저수율이 예년에 비해 크게 줄어들어 정상적인 용수공급에 어려움을 겪고 있다. 지구온난화로 인한 기후변화의 가속화는 가뭄의 강도와 발생 빈도를 증가시켜 정상적인 용수공급은 앞으로 더욱 어려워질 것으로 예상된다. 이에 따라 기후변화에 대처할 수 있는 용수공급 방안이 필요할 것으로 판단된다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 합천댐의 용수공급능력 분석을 위해 CMIP5 GCM 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 합천댐의 용수공급 능력을 분석하였다. 용수공급능력을 향상시킬 수 있는 비구조적 대안으로 다목적댐의 용수공급 조정기준 및 다목적댐의 비상용량을 활용하였다. 기후변화에 따른 분석기간은 21세기 초기(2011-2040년, 30년), 21세기 중기(2041-2070년, 30년), 21세기 후기(2071-2099년, 29년)로 설정하였다. 저수지 모의운영을 위해 저수지 모의운영 프로그램인 HEC-ResSim을 이용하였다. 또한 용수공급 능력을 평가하기 위한 지표로 용수공급의 신뢰도와 회복도, 취약도 등을 산정하고 그 결과를 비교 분석하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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• pp.328-328
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• 2022

GCM은 기후 변수들의 미래 예측을 위해 사용되는 모형이지만, 공간에 대해 저해상도 형태로 결과가 제공되며, 공간적으로 변화하는 국지적 규모의 기후변수(즉, 강수)를 이해하기 위해서는 공간변동성을 고려할 필요가 있다. 강우의 예측은 강우의 생성과 소멸 과정을 추계학적으로 재현하는 일기생성 모형인 AWE-GEN을 이용하여 앙상블 시계열을 생성하고, 구름의 생성과 소멸 및 이동, wet/dry 셀들의 생성과 이동, 지형의 국지적 특성 등을 반영한 시공간 변동 앙상블 시계열은 AWE-GEN-2D 모형을 이용하여 생성하였으며, 국토의 대부분이 산악지형으로 구성된 국내에 적용하여 그 적용성을 검토하였다. 생성된 시공간 격자 기반의 일기생성 시계열은 PRISM을 사용하여 매핑된 강수량의 공간 분포와 비교, 검증하였으며, 측정되지 않은 관측소 또는 원격 지역에 대한 평균 및 극한 강수량의 미래 예측 추정에 사용되었다. 또한, 평균 및 극한 강우의 공간 분포에 대한 미래 변화는 다양한 기간, 이산화탄소 배출 시나리오 등의 영향에서도 고려된다. 본 연구의 결과는 수자원 관리 및 재난 관리 정책을 수립하고 서비스를 제공하기 위한 기본 자료로 사용될 수 있다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• 제51권spc1호
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• pp.1091-1103
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• 2018

Having knowledge regarding to which region is prone to drought or flood is a crucial issue in water resources planning and management. This could be more challenging when the occurrence of these hazards affected by climate change. In this study the future streamflow during the wet season (July to September) and dry season (October to March) for the twenty first century of South Korea was investigated. This study used the statistics of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature of one global climate model (i.e., INMCM4) with 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios as inputs for The Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) model. The PRMS model was tested for the historical periods (1966-2016) and then the parameters of model were used to project the future changes of 5 large River basins in Korea for three future periods (2025s, 2055s, and 2085s) compared to the reference period (1976-2005). Then, the different responses in climate and streamflow projection during these two seasons (wet and dry) was investigated. The results showed that under INMCM4 scenario, the occurrence of drought in dry season is projected to be stronger in 2025s than 2055s from decreasing -7.23% (-7.06%) in 2025s to -3.81% (-0.71%) in 2055s for RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Regarding to the far future (2085s), for RCP 4.5 is projected to increase streamflow in the northern part, and decrease streamflow in the southern part (-3.24%), however under RCP8.5 almost all basins are vulnerable to drought, especially in the southern part (-16.51%). Also, during the wet season both increasing (Almost in northern and western part) and decreasing (almost in the southern part) in streamflow relative to the reference period are projected for all periods and RCPs under INMCM4 scenario.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• 제43권1호
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• pp.60-76
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• 2022

This study presents a software full setup and the following test execution times in a Linux cluster for the United Kingdom Earth System Model (UKESM) and then compares the model results from control and experimental simulations of the UKESM relative to various observations. Despite its low resolution, the latest version of the UKESM can simulate tropospheric chemistry-aerosol processes and the stratospheric ozone chemistry using the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosol (UKCA) module. The UKESM with UKCA (UKESM-UKCA) can treat atmospheric chemistryaerosol-cloud-radiation interactions throughout the whole atmosphere. In addition to the control UKESM run with the default CMIP5 SO₂ emission dataset, an experimental run was conducted to evaluate the aerosol effects on meteorology by changing atmospheric SO₂ loading with the newest REAS data over East Asia. The simulation period of the two model runs was 28 years, from January 1, 1982 to December 31, 2009. Spatial distributions of monthly mean aerosol optical depth, 2-m temperature, and precipitation intensity from model simulations and observations over East Asia were compared. The spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation from the two model simulations were generally in reasonable agreement with the observations. The simulated ozone concentration and total column ozone also agreed reasonably with the ERA5 reanalyzed one. Comparisons of spatial patterns and linear trends led to the conclusion that the model simulation with the newest SO₂ emission dataset over East Asia showed better temporal changes in temperature and precipitation over the western Pacific and inland China. Our results are in line with previous finding that SO₂ emissions over East Asia are an important factor for the atmospheric environment and climate change. This study confirms that the UKESM can be installed and operated in a Linux cluster-computing environment. Thus, researchers in various fields would have better access to the UKESM, which can handle the carbon cycle and atmospheric environment on Earth with interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.1-30
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• 2024

The international community adopts the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenario as a new greenhouse gas emission pathway. As part of efforts to reflect these international trends and support for climate change adaptation measure in the agricultural sector, the National Institute of Agricultural Sciences (NAS) produced high-resolution (1 km) climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula based on SSP scenarios, certified as a "National Climate Change Standard Scenario" in 2022. This paper introduces SSP climate change scenario of the NAS and shows the results of the climate change projections. In order to produce future climate change scenarios, global climate data produced from 18 GCM models participating in CMIP6 were collected for the past (1985-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods, and were statistically downscaled for the Korean Peninsula using the digital climate maps with 1km resolution and the SQM method. In the end of the 21^st century (2071-2100), the average annual maximum/minimum temperature of the Korean Peninsula is projected to increase by 2.6~6.1℃/2.5~6.3℃ and annual precipitation by 21.5~38.7% depending on scenarios. The increases in temperature and precipitation under the low-carbon scenario were smaller than those under high-carbon scenario. It is projected that the average wind speed and solar radiation over the analysis region will not change significantly in the end of the 21st century compared to the present. This data is expected to contribute to understanding future uncertainties due to climate change and contributing to rational decision-making for climate change adaptation.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.114-126
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• 2017

Many studies on climate change and its impacts use a single climate scenario. However, one climate scenario may not accurately predict the potential impacts of climate change. We estimated temperature and precipitation changes by 2070 using 17 of the CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two emission scenarios for three spatial domains: the Asian continent, six East Asia countries, and South Korea. For South Korea, the range of increased minimum temperature was lower than for the ranges of the larger regions, but the range of projected future precipitation was higher. The range of increased minimum temperatures was between $1.3^{\circ}C$ and $5.2^{\circ}C$, and the change in precipitation ranged from - 42.4 mm (- 3.2%) and + 389.8 mm (+ 29.6%) for South Korea. The range of increased minimum temperatures was between $2.3^{\circ}C$ and $8.5^{\circ}C$ for East Asia countries and was between $2.1^{\circ}C$ and $7.4^{\circ}C$ for the Asian continent, and the change in precipitation ranged from 28.8 mm (+ 6.3%) and 156.8 mm (+ 34.3%) for East Asia countries and from 32.4 mm (+ 5.5%) and 126.2 mm (+ 21.3%) for the Asian continent. We suggest climate change studies in South Korea should not use a single GCM or only an ensemble climate model's output and we recommend to use GFDL-CM3 and INMCM4 GCMs to bracket projected change for use in other national climate change studies to represent the range of projected future climate conditions.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• 제28권8B호
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• pp.716-729
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• 2003

As the public Internet and private internet have grown from small networks into large infrastructures, the need to more systematically manage the large number of network components within these networks has grown more important as well. The rapid growth of network size has brought into question the salability of the existing centralized model, such as SNMP(Simple Network Management Protocol) and CMIP(Common Management Information Protocol). Thus, for efficient network management, researches about mobile agent have also been performed recently. This paper presents analytical models of centralized approach based on SNMP protocol, distributed approach based on mobile agent, and mixed mode to make up for shortcomings of SNMP and mobile agent. We compare the performance of these analytical models based on network management response time. Experiment results show that performance of mobile agent and the nixed mode is less sensitive to the delay in WAN network environment. However, SNMP is more efficient for the simple network environment like LAN. We also propose an adaptive network management algorithm in consideration of network t environment. delay, task, and the number of nodes based on the results of analytical models. The results show that the adaptive network management algorithm can reduce the network management response time by 10% compared with either mobile agent or mixed mode network management algorithm.

• Atmosphere
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.527-538
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• 2013

In this study, climate over Korea based on the Historical scenario induced by HadGEM2-AO is simulated by WRF. For this purpose, a system that can be used be for numerical integration over the Far East Asian area of the center of the Korean Peninsula with 12.5 km-horizontal resolution was set-up at "Haebit", the early portion of KMA Supercomputer Unit-3. Using the system, the downscaling experiments were conducted for the period 1979-2010. The simulated results of HadGEM2-AO and WRF are presented in terms of 2 m-temperature and precipitation during boreal summer and winter of Historical for the period 1981~2005, compared with observation. As for the mean 2 m-temperature, the general patterns of HadGEM2-AO and WRF are similar with observation although WRF showed lower values than observation due to the systematic bias. WRF reproduced a feature of the terrain-following characteristics reasonably well owing to the increased horizontal resolution. Both of the models simulated the observed precipitation pattern for DJF than JJA reasonably, while the rainfall over the Korean Peninsula in JJA is less than observation. HadGEM2-AO in DJF 2 m-temperature and JJA precipitation has warm and dry biases over the Korean Peninsula, respectively. WRF showed cold bias over JJA 2 m-temperature and wet bias over DJF precipitation. The larger bias in WRF was attributed to the addition of HadGEM2-AO's bias to WRF's systematic bias. Spatial correlation analysis revealed that HadGEM2-AO and WRF had above 0.8 correlation coefficients except for JJA precipitation. In the EOF analysis, both models results explained basically same phase changes and variation as observation. Despite the difference in mean and bias fields for both models, the variabilities of the two models were almost similar with observation in many respects, implying that the downscaled results can be effectively used for the study of regional climate around the Korean Peninsula.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.313-323
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• 2016

Water temperature affects physical and biological processes in ecologies on river system and is important conditions for growth rate and spawning of fish species. The objective of this study is to compare models for water temperature during the summer season for the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, Quebec, Canada). For this, three different models, which are CEQUEAU, Auto-regressive Moving Average with eXogenous input and Nonlinear Autoregressive with eXogenous input, were applied and compared. Also, future water temperature in the Fourchue river were simulated and analyzed its result based on the CMIP5 climate models, RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 climate change scenarios. As the result of the study, the water temperature in the Fourchue river are actually changed and median water temperature will increase $0.2{\sim}0.7^{\circ}C$ in June and could decrease by $0.2{\sim}1.1^{\circ}C$ in September. Also, the UILT ($24.9^{\circ}C$) for brook trout are also likely to occurred for several days.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• 제62권6호
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• pp.85-95
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• 2020

According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However, due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods' volume by using climate change scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distribution and new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying the modified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climate change was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic Modeling System) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volume increased by 627 ㎥/s (15%) and 523 ㎥/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 ㎥/s (3.76%) on a 200-yr frequency and 171 ㎥/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 ㎥/s (0.30%) on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 ㎥/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made the flood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.