• 한국환경보건학회지
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• 제32권6호
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• pp.571-577
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• 2006

Health benefits from implementing air quality control measures were assessed using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). BenMAP developed by US EPA is a GIS-based software tool that estimates the health impacts and associated economic values connected with changes in ambient air pollution. Once a set of BenMAP-required data was collected, the health benefits from implementing Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP), an official AQ improvement plan for Seoul Metropolitan Area, was assessed using BenMAP. The PM10 concentrations assuming the SAQMP implemented successfully were predicted with the MM5 (Mesoscale Meteorological model version 5)/CMAQ (Community Multiscale Air Quality) model. A PM 10 exposure related premature mortality function was adopted trom a well-known epidemiology study. Economic valuation functions driven from benefit transfer methods were utilized. Through the SAQMP, PM10 concentrations were estimated to be lowered by $15{\mu}g/m^3\;to\;75{\mu}g/m^3$ depending on air quality modeling grids. 5,569 premature deaths (95% CI $3,264{\sim}7,809$ deaths) could be avoided in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. The economic value of the deaths avoided was estimated to $13.2 billion $(95%\;CI\;$890\;million{\sim}$28.2\;billion)$ using the benefit transfer value. BenMAP could be a useful tool for developing effective air quality improvement policy, enabling the policy makers to anticipate the effects of regulatory changes on people's health and the economy.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.25-34
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• 2014

In winter 2013, extreme air pollution by fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) in China attracted much public attention. In order to simulate the $PM_{2.5}$ pollution, the Community Multiscale Air Quality model driven by the Weather Research and Forecasting model was applied to East Asia in a period from 1 January 2013 to 5 February 2013. The model generally reproduced $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in China with emission data in the year 2006. Therefore, the extreme $PM_{2.5}$ pollution seems to be mainly attributed to meteorological (weak wind and stable) conditions rather than emission increases in the past several years. The model well simulated temporal and spatial variations in $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in Japan as well as China, indicating that the model well captured characteristics of the $PM_{2.5}$ pollutions in both areas on the windward and leeward sides in East Asia in the study period. In addition, contribution rates of four anthropogenic emission sectors (power generation, industrial, residential and transportation) in China to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration were estimated by conducting zero-out emission sensitivity runs. Among the four sectors, the residential sector had the highest contribution to $PM_{2.5}$ concentration. Therefore, the extreme $PM_{2.5}$ pollution may be also attributed to large emissions from combustion for heating in cold regions in China.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제12권1호
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• pp.59-66
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• 2018

This study aims to evaluate the performance of the Air Quality Model (AQM) for the seasonal and spatial distribution of the $NH_3$ concentration in the atmosphere. To obtain observational data for the model validation, observations based on biweekly sampling have been conducted using passive samplers since April 2015 at multiple monitoring sites in the Tokyo metropolitan area. AQM, built based on WRF/CMAQ, was applied to predict the $NH_3$ concentration observed from April 2015 to March 2016. The simulation domain includes the Kanto region, which is the most densely populated area in Japan. Because the area also contains large amount of livestock, especially in its northern part, the density of the $NH_3$ emissions derived from human activities and agriculture there are estimated to be the highest in Japan. In the model validation, the model overestimated the observed $NH_3$ concentration in the summer season and underestimated it in the winter season. In particular, the overestimation in the summer was remarkable at a rural site (Komae) in Tokyo. It was found that the overestimation at Komae was caused by the transportation of $NH_3$ emitted in the northern part of the Kanto region during the night. It is suggested that the emission input used in this study overestimated the $NH_3$ emission from human sources around the Tokyo suburbs and agricultural sources in the northern part of the Kanto region in the summer season. In addition, the current emission inventories might overestimate the difference of the agricultural $NH_3$ emissions among seasons. Because the overestimation of $NH_3$ in the summer causes an overestimation of $NO_3{^-}$ in $PM_{2.5}$ in the AQM simulation, further investigation is necessary for the seasonal variation in the $NH_3$ emissions.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.150-156
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• 2010

Inter-comparison of chemical transport models (CTMs) was conducted among four modeling research groups. Model performance of the ensemble approach to $O_3$ and $PM_{2.5}$ simulation was evaluated by using observational data with a time resolution of 1 or 6 hours at four sites in the Kanto area, Japan, in summer 2007. All groups applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The ensemble average of the four CTMs reproduced well the temporal variation of $O_3$ (r=0.65-0.85) and the daily maximum $O_3$ concentration within a factor of 1.3. By contrast, it underestimated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations by a factor of 1.4-2, and did not reproduce the $PM_{2.5}$ temporal variation at two suburban sites (r=~0.2). The ensemble average improved the simulation of ${SO_4}^{2-}$, ${NO_3}^-$, and ${NH_4}^+$, whose production pathways are well known. In particular, the ensemble approach effectively simulated ${NO_3}^-$, despite the large variability among CTMs (up to a factor of 10). However, the ensemble average did not improve the simulation of organic aerosols (OAs), underestimating their concentrations by a factor of 5. The contribution of OAs to $PM_{2.5}$ (36-39%) was large, so improvement of the OA simulation model is essential to improve the $PM_{2.5}$ simulation.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.69-79
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• 2013

본 연구에서는 대기오염 물질이 대기 변화에 따라 주변 지역의 오염농도에 미치는 영향 분석에 대한 필요성과 구체적인 방법론을 제시하였다. 이에 대한 사례연구로서 경기도 포천지역 도로망을 대상으로 본 방법론을 적용하였다. 본 연구에서 제시한 방법론은 1) 교통에서 배출된 오염물질만을 고려한 확산 분석, 2) 교통에서 배출된 오염물질과 주변오염물질농도를 결합하여 분석하는 두 가지 분석 모형을 포함하고 있다. 이를 통해 교통에 의해 발생된 대기오염물질이 교통망과 교통망 주변지역에 미치는 영향을 분석하는데 유용 할 것으로 판단된다. 또한, 교통에 의해 발생된 대기오염원과 대기오염원이 인체에 미치는 영향을 본 분석에 근거하여 도로주변 고농도의 대기오염물질에 의한 위해성(危害性)을 평가하는데 유용할 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.430-439
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• 2007

The objective of this work is the air quality modeling according to the practical roughness length using the building information as surface boundary conditions. As accurate wind and temperature field are required to produce realistic urban air quality modeling, comparative simulations by various roughness length are discussed. The prognostic meteorological fields and air quality field over complex areas of Seoul, Korea are generated by the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) and the Third Generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality Modeling System (Models-3/CMAQ), respectively. The simulated $O_3$ concentration on complex terrain and their interactions with the weak synoptic flow had relatively strong effects by the roughness length. A comparison of the three meteorological fields of respective roughness length reveals substantial localized differences in surface temperature and wind folds. Under these conditions, the ascended mixing height and weakened wind speed at night which induced the stable boundary stronger, and the difference of simulated $O_3$ concentration is $2{\sim}6\;ppb$.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2007

This study was carried out to estimate the emission reduction rates for the regional allowable emissions by special measures to achieve the target air quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA). A modeling system was designed to validate the details in enforcement regulations set up by local governments based on the current status and plans for air quality improvement. Modeling system was composed of meteorological model (MM5), emission model (SMOKE), and air quality model (CMAQ). Predicted results by this system show quiet well not only daily air pollutants concentration but also the tendencies of wind direction, wind speed and temperature. To achieve the target air quality in Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), emission allowances are estimated by seasons and regions. Referring to the base year 2002, it was estimated that emission reduction rates to achieve the intermediate goal in 2007 were 14.2% and 16.6% for NOx and $PM_{10}$, respectively. It was also estimated that 52% of NOx and 48% of $PM_{10}$ reductions from the base year 2002 would be required to accomplish the air quality improvement goal of 22 ppb for $NO_2$, and $40mg/m^3$ for $PM_{10}$ in year 2014. To improve $NO_2$ and $PM_{10}$ concentration through emissions reduction policies, it was found that emissions reduction for the on-road mobile sources would be the most effective in SMA.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.580-602
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• 2011

Volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the 2007 CAPSS (Clean Air Protection Supporting System) emissions inventory are chemically speciated for the SAPRC99 (Statewide Air Pollution Research Center 99) mechanism, following the Source Classification Code (SCC) matching method to borrow the U.S.EPA's chemical speciation profiles. CMAQ simulations with High-order Direct Decoupled Method (HDDM) are in turn applied to evaluate uncertainty in the method by comparing the simulated model VOC species to the observations in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) for a 2007 June episode. Simulations under-predicted ALK1 to ALK4 in SAPRC99 by a factor of 2 to 5 and over-predicted ALK5 by a factor of 7.5 while ARO1, ARO2, OLE1, and ethylene (ETH) are comparable to the observations, showing relative difference by 10 to 30%. OLE2 emissions are roughly 4 times overestimated. Emission rates for individual VOC model species are revised referring to the ratio of simulated to observed concentrations. Impact of the VOC emission changes on the overall ozone prediction was insignificant for the days of which 1-hr maximum ozone are lower than 100 ppb. However, simulations showed ozone difference by 5 to 10 ppb when high ozone above 120 ppb was observed in the vicinity of Seoul. This result suggests that evaluations on individual model VOC emissions be necessary to lead ozone control plans to the right direction. Moreover, the simulated ratios of ARO1 and ARO2 to $NO_x$ are roughly 50% lower than the observed ones, which imply that adjustment in $NO_x$ and VOC emission rates may be required to mimic the real VOC/$NO_x$ condition over the area.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제34권5호
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• pp.687-696
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• 2018

In order to develop effective emission abatement strategies for coal-fired power plants, we analyzed the shutdown effects of coal-fired power plants on $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in June by employing air quality model for the period from 2013 to 2016. WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) and CMAQ(Community Multiscale Air Quality) models were used to quantify the impact of emission reductions on the averaged $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations in June over Chungcheongnam-do area in Korea. The resultant shutdown effects showed that the averaged $PM_{2.5}$ concentration in June decreased by 1.2% in Chungcheongnam-do area and decreased by 2.3% in the area where the surface air pollution measuring stations were located. As a result of this study, it was confirmed that it is possible to analyze policy effects considering the change of meteorology and emission and it is possible to quantitatively estimate the influence at the maximum impact region by utilizing the air quality model. The results of this study are expected to be useful as a basic data for analyzing the effect of $PM_{2.5}$ concentration change according to future emission changes.

• 환경영향평가
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• 제24권5호
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• pp.456-471
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• 2015

배출량 자료는 대기질 수치모의에 있어서 큰 영향을 주는 요소로서 정확한 대기질 수치모의를 위해서 배출량 자료의 정확성과 신뢰도 향상은 대기질 모델 연구에 있어 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 울산지역을 대상으로 2003년과 2010년 CAPSS 배출량 자료인 CAPSS-2003과 CAPSS-2010를 입력자료로 하여 WRF-CMAQ 모델을 수행하여 울산지역 배출량 지료의 타당성을 검토하였다. 우선 오염물질의 장거리 수송 영향을 배제하기 위하여 울산지역 자체 내의 배출량 영향이 우세한 종관 기상조건을 가진 사례일을 선정하고 선정된 사례일에 대해서 WRF-CMAQ모델을 수행한 후 그 결과인 CO, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, $PM_{10}$ 농도와 관측 값을 비교하여, 과소 혹은 과대 모의되는 정도를 분석하여 모의결과를 보정 할 수 있는 'scaling factor'를 제시하였다. 그 결과 CAPSS-2003을 이용한 모의결과는 CO와 $NO_2$에 대해서는 관측과 유사한 수준으로 모의하였으나 $SO_2$는 약 12배 과대모의, $PM_{10}$은 약 27배나 과소모의하는 결과를 얻었다. 반면 CAPSS-2010을 이용한 모의결과에서는 CO와 $NO_2$의 모의결과는 유사하였으며, $SO_2$는 약 2배 과대모의, $PM_{10}$은 약 5배 과소모의 하여 $SO_2$와 $PM_{10}$ 배출량이 상당히 개선됨을 확인하였다. $SO_2$와 $PM_{10}$ 역시 이전 보다는 관측에 가깝게 모의되었으나 현실적 모델링 결과를 도출하기 위해서 배출량은 향후 개선되어야 할 부분으로 판단되었다. 따라서 보다 현실적인 모델링 결과를 도출하기 위해서는 본 연구에서 제시한 울산지역 배출량의 'scaling factor'를 이용하면 보다 안정된 모델링 결과가 도출 될 것으로 판단된다.