• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.9
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• pp.251-261
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• 2020

The paper examines the role of some determinants of economics, politics and institutions on the budget deficit volatility in some countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) such as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam. The paper uses the fixed effects model (FEM) and the random effects model (REM) to investigate panel data of these countries in the period of 1990-2018. Moreover, the study also explores ordinary least square (OLS) to analyze time-series data for each country in the same period to make comparison among them. The economic data is collected from international financial statistics and world development indicators. The data on political variables are collected from International Country Risk Data Guide (ICRG). The empirical results both confirm that corruption and political stability are important indicators of budget deficit. Besides, the paper suggests authorities should pay more attention on improving the institutional setup of the economy in order to avoid high and unstable deficit. The findings offer new insight on the budget deficit in essence and suggest that the most important thing need to be done ahead is to strongly implement anti-corruption actions. By doing so, the status of budget deficit would be remarkably improved immediately.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.741-750
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• 2021

The budget deficit is closely related to expansionary fiscal policy as a fiscal instrument to encourage economic growth. This study aims to apply optimal control theory in the Keynesian macroeconomic model for the economy, so that optimal growth can be found. Macroeconomic variables include GDP, consumption, investment, exports, imports, and budget deficit as control variables. This study uses secondary data in the form of time series, the time period 1990 to 2018. Performing optimal control will result in optimal fiscal policy. The optimal determination is done through simulation, for the period 2019-2023. The discrete optimal control problem is to minimize the objective function in the form of a quadratic function against the deviation of the state variable and control variable from the target value and the optimal value. Meanwhile, the constraint is Keynes' macroeconomic model. The results showed that the optimal value of macroeconomic variables has a deviation from the target values consisting of: consumption, investment, exports, imports, GDP, and budget deficit. The largest deviation from the average during the simulation occurs in GDP, followed by investment, exports, and the budget deficit. Meanwhile, the lowest average deviation is found in imports.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.35-44
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• 2018

The study is aimed at investigating the main factors that affect the interest rate yields, in the long-term. In addition, the study surveys the theories and literature relating to the determinants of interest rate. The importance of which is essential not only for governments, but also for banks and corporate financial risk management decisions, including risk exposures in banks and capital markets. Interest rate influences corporate profit as well as growth. For this purpose, the study examines the impact of budget deficit, risk-free rate, capital inflows, money supply and business cycles on real interest rate in Jordan. These factors are based upon well-established theories and straightforward practical view as interest rate determinants. Using data for (1990-2015), the study employed Johansen's co-integrating test, which takes into consideration the long-term unsynchronized relationships. The data is tested for normality, symmetric correlations, covariance diagonal and unit root. The results show that the government budget deficit, short-term risk-free interest rate, capital inflows, money supply and business cycle are long-term determinants of the real interest rate in Jordan. The coefficients of government budget deficit, short-term risk-free rate, money supply and business cycle all are inversely affecting the real interest rate, while capital inflows has a positive impact on the real interest rate.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.113-119
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• 1991

In the present study, a methodology has been established for water budget analysis of a river basin for which monthyl rainfall and evaporation data are the only available hydrologic data. The monthly rainfall data were first converted into monthyl runoff data by an empirical formula from which long-term runoff data were generated by a stochastic generation mothod. Thomas-Fiering model. Based on the generated long-term data low flow frequency analysis was made for each of the oberved and generated data set, the low flow series of each data set being taken as the water supply for budget analysis. The water demands for various water utilization were projected according to the standard method and the net water consumption computed there of. With the runoff series of the driest year of each generated data set as an input water budget computation was made through the composite reservoirs comprised of small reserviors existing in the basin by deficit-supply method. The water deficit computed through the reservior operation study showed that the deficit radically increases as the return period of low flow becomes large. This indicates that the long-term runoff data generated by stochastic model are a necessity for a reliable water shortage forecasting to cope with the long-term water resourse planning of a river basin. F.E.M. program (ADINA) is also presented herein.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.617-626
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• 2021

The study examines the existence of twin deficit in two emerging economies (Turkey and Iran) and also investigates the relation of twin deficit with specific macroeconomic indicators such as the GDP, money supply, foreign direct investment, and the interest rate both in short and long-run periods. The twin-deficit concept refers to a situation where the current account deficit and budget deficits exist in the same corresponding period of an economy. This study employs the Bound Test Autoregressive lag distributed (ARDL) model on time-series quarterly secondary data of Turkey and Iran from 1992 to 2019. The stationarity of variables has been ensured through the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test at the level and the first difference. The results reveal the existence of a twin deficit in both the short and long-run periods only in Iran. Its existence could not be observed in the Turkish economy. The findings suggest a positive relationship between twin deficit and GDP, and a negative relationship between twin deficit and FDI and M2. At the same time, the relationship of the twin deficit with interest rate could not be found in the Iranian economy. The findings may be helpful for economic managers of both countries in executing their economic policies.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.22-22
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• 2018

본 연구에서는 수문학적 가뭄을 분석하기 위해 두가지 지수를 개발하여 소개하고자 한다. 첫번째는, 물수지식을 기반으로 산정된 Water Budget-based Drought Index(WBDI)로 강우와 증발산의 차이를 이용하여 산정한다. 두 번째는 에너지 수지식을 기반으로 산정된 Energy-based Water Deficit Index(EWDI)로 에너지 수지 기반의 증발산, 태양복사에너지와 토양수분 등을 이용하여 산정한다. 두가지 지수 모두 인공위성 영상 자료를 활용하였다. WBDI 산정을 위한 강수량 자료는 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)과 Global Precipitation Mission(GPM)를 활용하였으며, 증발산 자료는 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 자료를 활용하였다. EWDI 산정에 필요한 입력자료는 모두 MODIS 자료를 활용하였다. 산정된 두 가뭄지수의 수문학적 가뭄 분석을 위해 자연유출지점인 6개 지점을 선정하여 유출량 자료와 비교하였다. 유출량 자료를 활용하여 Error matrix 기법을 적용하여 두 수문학적 가뭄지수의 우리나라에서의 적용성을 파악하였다.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.21 no.9
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• pp.239-246
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• 2021

This article substantiates the scientific provisions for modelling the level of Ukraine's public financial security taking into account the impact of budget policy, in the process of which identified indicators of budget policy that significantly affect the public financial security and the factors of budget policy based on regression analysis do not interact closely with each other. A seven-factor regression equation is constructed, which is statistically significant, reliable, economically logical, and devoid of autocorrelation. The objective function of maximizing the level of public financial security is constructed and strategic guidelines of budget policy in the context of Ukraine's public financial security are developed, in particular: optimization of the structure of budget revenues through the expansion of the resource base; reduction of the budget deficit while ensuring faster growth rates of state and local budget revenues compared to their expenditures; optimization of debt serviced from the budget through raising funds from the sale of domestic government bonds, mainly on a long-term basis; minimization of budgetary risks and existing threats to the public financial security by ensuring long-term stability of budgets etc.

• Asian Journal of Business Environment
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.29-36
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• 2020

Purpose: This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic determinants of capital flight. Research design, data and methodology: With five determinants, this survey was conducted by Eviews 10, and the ordinary least squares (OLS) as a statistical method was applied for examining the research hypothesis. The five determinants are a budget deficit, economic growth, inflation rate, the exchange rate, and sovereign rating. The capital flight measurement uses the World Bank residual approach. The data derive from the Central Bank of Indonesia, BPS-Statistics Indonesia, OECD, and Moody's Investor Service. Results: The result considers that economic growth, the exchange rate, and the sovereign rating will decrease capital flight. In addition, the budget deficit and the inflation rate will increase capital flight. The sovereign rating decreases capital flight bigger than the other determinants. In addition, the exchange rate is statistically significant. Conclusions: The most influential problem of capital flight in Indonesia is because of non-macroeconomics factor political issue, corruption, bad regulation, and others. That's why the investment climate in Indonesia is still not secure. We propose that the regime would have to amend the business rule for reducing capital, raising the investment climate, and demonstrating the creative industry.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.1-16
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• 2017

The fundamental goal of the research was to verify if the Twin Deficits Hypothesis holds for the economy of Zambia using time series data from 1980-2014. The current account and budget deficit were employed as key variables. The exchange rate was also used as a transmission mechanism to see how it contributes in the nexus. Cointegration tests confirmed a long run association of the variables. After fitting the VECM model, Granger causality tests confirmed the existence of twin deficits for Zambia. The results supported uni-directional reverse causality. The exchange rate was shown to be more significant in the long run than in the short run. The implosion of the time series as shown by the predicted cointegration equation implies that unless drastic measures are taken to cure the deficits, using the current account as the major target variable, twin deficits will persist for some time. The major policy implication of this research is that given that Zambia is a primary commodity-dependent developing country subsisting largely on copper revenues to sustain the economy, there is a need to move away from "copper addiction," given the recent volatility of earnings of primary commodities (e.g. through diversification of the economy, import substitution, and other strategies).

• The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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• v.5 no.1
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• pp.27-37
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• 2017

Domestic government debt securities is one of the steps which is taken by the government of Indonesia as a major source of financial budget, covering for the budget deficit, debt payments and interest debt. The purposes of this research are to know the development of budget deficits, government debt and impact of domestic government debt securities against economic growth in Indonesia. Method of analysis used Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) analyzing the impact of the domestic debt against economic growth in Indonesia. This research uses time series data from 1997 to 2014. Total government debt and domestic government debt securities in Indonesia increased during the last five years. The average of domestic government securities was above 50 percent of the total government debt. Estimated results showed domestic government debt securities has a positive and significant effect to economic growth. Official development assistance (ODA) has a negative effect to economic growth. Other variables such as the gross fixed capital formation and receipt of remittance have positive and significant effect, total imports and government expenditure have negative and significant effect against economic growth.