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Development of the forecasting model for import volume by item of major countries based on economic, industrial structural and cultural factors: Focusing on the cultural factors of Korea (경제적, 산업구조적, 문화적 요인을 기반으로 한 주요 국가의 한국 품목별 수입액 예측 모형 개발: 한국의, 한국에 대한 문화적 요인을 중심으로)

  • Jun, Seung-pyo;Seo, Bong-Goon;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.23-48
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    • 2021
  • The Korean economy has achieved continuous economic growth for the past several decades thanks to the government's export strategy policy. This increase in exports is playing a leading role in driving Korea's economic growth by improving economic efficiency, creating jobs, and promoting technology development. Traditionally, the main factors affecting Korea's exports can be found from two perspectives: economic factors and industrial structural factors. First, economic factors are related to exchange rates and global economic fluctuations. The impact of the exchange rate on Korea's exports depends on the exchange rate level and exchange rate volatility. Global economic fluctuations affect global import demand, which is an absolute factor influencing Korea's exports. Second, industrial structural factors are unique characteristics that occur depending on industries or products, such as slow international division of labor, increased domestic substitution of certain imported goods by China, and changes in overseas production patterns of major export industries. Looking at the most recent studies related to global exchanges, several literatures show the importance of cultural aspects as well as economic and industrial structural factors. Therefore, this study attempted to develop a forecasting model by considering cultural factors along with economic and industrial structural factors in calculating the import volume of each country from Korea. In particular, this study approaches the influence of cultural factors on imports of Korean products from the perspective of PUSH-PULL framework. The PUSH dimension is a perspective that Korea develops and actively promotes its own brand and can be defined as the degree of interest in each country for Korean brands represented by K-POP, K-FOOD, and K-CULTURE. In addition, the PULL dimension is a perspective centered on the cultural and psychological characteristics of the people of each country. This can be defined as how much they are inclined to accept Korean Flow as each country's cultural code represented by the country's governance system, masculinity, risk avoidance, and short-term/long-term orientation. The unique feature of this study is that the proposed final prediction model can be selected based on Design Principles. The design principles we presented are as follows. 1) A model was developed to reflect interest in Korea and cultural characteristics through newly added data sources. 2) It was designed in a practical and convenient way so that the forecast value can be immediately recalled by inputting changes in economic factors, item code and country code. 3) In order to derive theoretically meaningful results, an algorithm was selected that can interpret the relationship between the input and the target variable. This study can suggest meaningful implications from the technical, economic and policy aspects, and is expected to make a meaningful contribution to the export support strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises by using the import forecasting model.

State of Mind in the Flow 4-Channel Model and Play (플로우 4경로모형의 마음상태와 플레이(play))

  • Sohn, Jun-Sang
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2007
  • The flow theory becomes one of the most important frameworks in the internet research arena. Hoffman and Novak proposed a hierarchical flow model showing the antecedents and outcomes of flow and the relationship among these variables in the hyper-media computer circumstances (Hoffman and Novak 1996). This model was further tested after their initial research (Novak, Hoffman, and Yung 2000). At their paper, Hoffman and Novak explained that the balance of challenge and skill leads to flow which means the positive optimal state of mind (Hoffman and Novak 1996). An imbalance between challenge and skill, leads to negative states of mind like anxiety, boredom, apathy (Csikszentmihalyi and Csikszentmihalyi 1988). Almost all research on the flow 4-channel model have been focusingon flow, the positive state of mind (Ellis, Voelkl, and Morris 1994 Mathwick and Rigdon 2004). However, it also needs to examine the formation of the negative states of minds and their outcomes. Flow researchers explain play or playfulness as antecedents or the early state of flow. However, play has been regarded as a distinct concept from flow in the flow literatures (Hoffman and Novak 1996; Novak, Hoffman, and Yung 2000). Mathwick and Rigdon discovered the influences of challenge and skill on play; they also observed the influence of play on web-loyalty and brand loyalty (Mathwick and Rigdon 2004). Unfortunately, they did not go so far as to test the influences of play on state of mind. This study focuses on the relationships between state of mind in the flow 4-channel model and play. Early research has attempted to hypothetically explain state of mind in flow theory, but has not been tested except flow until now. Also the importance of play has been emphasized in the flow theory, but has not been tested in the flow 4-channel model context. This researcher attempts to analyze the relationships among state of mind, skill of play, challenge, state of mind and web loyalty. For this objective, I developed a measure for state of mind and defined the concept of play as a trait. Then, the influences of challenge and skill on the state of mind and play under on-line shopping conditions were tested. Also the influences of play on state of mind were tested and those of flow and play on web loyalty were highlighted. 294 undergraduate students participated in this research survey. They were asked to respond about their perceptions of challenge, skill, state of mind, play, and web-loyalty to on-line shopping mall. Respondents were restricted to students who bought products on-line in a month. In case of buying products at two or more on-line shopping malls, they asked to respond about the shopping mall where they bought the most important one. Construct validity, discriminant validity, and convergent validity were used to check the measurement validations. Also, Cronbach's alpha was used to check scale reliability. A series of exploratory factor analyses was conducted. This researcher conducted confirmatory factor analyses to assess the validity of measurements. All items loaded significantly on their respective constructs. Also, all reliabilities were greater than.70. Chi-square difference tests and goodness of fit tests supported discriminant and convergent validity. The results of clustering and ANOVA showed that high challenge and high skill leaded to flow, low challenge and high skill leaded to boredom, and low challenge and low skill leaded to apathy. But, it was different from my expectation that high challenge and low skill didnot lead to anxiety but leaded to apathy. The results also showed that high challenge and high skill, and high challenge and low skill leaded to the highest play. Low challenge leaded to low play. 4 Structural Equation Models were built by flow, anxiety, boredom, apathy for analyzing not only the impact of play on state of mind and web-loyalty, but also that of state of mind on web-loyalty. According the analyses results of these models, play impacted flow and web-loyalty positively, but impacted anxiety, boredom, and apathy negatively. Results also showed that flow impacted web-loyalty positively, but anxiety, boredom, and apathy impacted web-loyalty negatively. The interpretations and implications of the test results of the hypotheses are as follows. First, respondents belonging to different clusters based on challenge and skill level experienced different states of mind such as flow, anxiety, boredom, apathy. The low challenge and low skill group felt the highest anxiety and apathy. It could be interpreted that this group feeling high anxiety or fear, then avoided attempts to shop on-line. Second, it was found that higher challenge leads to higher levels of play. Test results show that the play level of the high challenge and low skill group (anxiety group) was higher than that of the high challenge and high skill group (flow group). However, this was not significant. Third, play positively impacted flow and negatively impacted boredom. The negative impacts on anxiety and apathy were not significant. This means that the combination of challenge and skill creates different results. Forth, play and flow positively impacted web-loyalty, but anxiety, boredom, apathy had negative impacts. The effect of play on web-loyalty was stronger in case of anxiety, boredom, apathy group than fl ow group. These results show that challenge and skill influences state of mind and play. Results also demonstrate how play and flow influence web-loyalty. It implies that state of mind and play should be the core marketing variables in internet marketing. The flow theory has been focusing on flow and on the positive outcomes of flow experiences. But, this research shows that lots of consumers experience the negative state of mind rather than flow state in the internet shopping circumstance. Results show that the negative state of mind leads to low or negative web-loyalty. Play can have an important role with the web-loyalty when consumers have the negative state of mind. Results of structural equation model analyses show that play influences web-loyalty positively, even though consumers may be in the negative state of mind. This research found the impacts of challenge and skill on state of mind in the flow 4-channel model, not only flow but also anxiety, boredom, apathy. Also, it highlighted the role of play in the flow 4-channel model context and impacts on web-loyalty. However, tests show a few different results from hypothetical expectations such as the highest anxiety level of apathy group and insignificant impacts of play on anxiety and apathy. Further research needs to replicate this research and/or to compare 3-channel model with 4-channel model.

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An Exploratory Study on Channel Equity of Electronic Goods (가전제품 소비자의 Channel Equity에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • Suh, Yong-Gu;Lee, Eun-Kyung
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.1-25
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    • 2008
  • Ⅰ. Introduction Retailers in the 21st century are being told that future retailers are those who can execute seamless multi-channel access. The reason is that retailers should be where shoppers want them, when they want them anytime, anywhere and in multiple formats. Multi-channel access is considered one of the top 10 trends of all business in the next decade (Patricia T. Warrington, et al., 2007) And most firms use both direct and indirect channels in their markets. Given this trend, we need to evaluate a channel equity more systematically than before as this issue is expected to get more attention to consumers as well as to brand managers. Consumers are becoming very much confused concerning the choice of place where they shop for durable goods as there are at least 6-7 retail options. On the other hand, manufacturers have to deal with category killers, their dealers network, Internet shopping malls, and other avenue of distribution channels and they hope their retail channel behave like extensions of their own companies. They would like their products to be foremost in the retailer's mind-the first to be proposed and effectively communicated to potential customers. To enable this hope to come reality, they should know each channel's advantages and disadvantages from consumer perspectives. In addition, customer satisfaction is the key determinant of retail customer loyalty. However, there are only a few researches regarding the effects of shopping satisfaction and perceptions on consumers' channel choices and channels. The purpose of this study was to assess Korean consumers' channel choice and satisfaction towards channels they prefer to use in the case of electronic goods shopping. Korean electronic goods retail market is one of good example of multi-channel shopping environments. As the Korea retail market has been undergoing significant structural changes since it had opened to global retailers in 1996, new formats such as hypermarkets, Internet shopping malls and category killers have arrived for the last decade. Korean electronic goods shoppers have seven major channels : (1)category killers (2) hypermarket (3) manufacturer dealer shop (4) Internet shopping malls (5) department store (6) TV home-shopping (7) speciality shopping arcade. Korean retail sector has been modernized with amazing speed for the last decade. Overall summary of major retail channels is as follows: Hypermarket has been number 1 retailer type in sales volume from 2003 ; non-store retailing has been number 2 from 2007 ; department store is now number 3 ; small scale category killers are growing rapidly in the area of electronics and office products in particular. We try to evaluate each channel's equity using a consumer survey. The survey was done by telephone interview with 1000 housewife who lives nationwide. Sampling was done according to 2005 national census and average interview time was 10 to 15 minutes. Ⅱ. Research Summary We have found that seven major retail channels compete with each other within Korean consumers' minds in terms of price and service. Each channel seem to have its unique selling points. Department stores were perceived as the best electronic goods shopping destinations due to after service. Internet shopping malls were perceived as the convenient channel owing to price checking. Category killers and hypermarkets were more attractive in both price merits and location conveniences. On the other hand, manufacturers dealer networks were pulling customers mainly by location and after service. Category killers and hypermarkets were most beloved retail channel for Korean consumers. However category killers compete mainly with department stores and shopping arcades while hypermarkets tend to compete with Internet and TV home shopping channels. Regarding channel satisfaction, the top 3 channels were service-driven retailers: department stores (4.27); dealer shop (4.21); and Internet shopping malls (4.21). Speciality shopping arcade(3.98) were the least satisfied channels among Korean consumers. Ⅲ. Implications We try to identify the whole picture of multi-channel retail shopping environments and its implications in the context of Korean electronic goods. From manufacturers' perspectives, multi-channel may cause channel conflicts. Furthermore, inter-channel competition draws much more attention as hypermarkets and category killers have grown rapidly in recent years. At the same time, from consumers' perspectives, 'buy where' is becoming an important buying decision as it would decide the level of shopping satisfaction. We need to develop the concept of 'channel equity' to manage multi-channel distribution effectively. Firms should measure and monitor their prime channel equity in regular basis to maximize their channel potentials. Prototype channel equity positioning map has been developed as follows. We expect more studies to develop the concept of 'channel equity' in the future.

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Rice Safety and Heavy Metal Contents in the Soil on "Top-Rice" Cultivation Area (탑라이스 생산지역 논토양 중 중금속 함량과 쌀의 안전성)

  • Park, Sang-Won;Yoon, Mi-Yeon;Kim, Jin-Kyoung;Park, Byung-Jun;Kim, Won-Il;Shin, Joung-Du;Kwon, Oh-Kyung;Chung, Duck-Hwa
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2008
  • Objective of this study was to investigate residual the levels of heavy metals in rice grain and soils of "Top-Rice" and common rice cultivation areas from 2005 to 2007. Soil and rice grain samples were taken from 33 "Top-rice" areas and neighboring paddies, and analyzed for the elements using ICP-OES and ICP-TOF-MS after acid digestion. A concentration of arsenic in paddy soil was 1.33 mg/kg which was below 1/5-1/11 fold of the threshold levels(concern: 4 mg/kg, action: 10 mg/kg), and paddy soil was 0.06 mg/kg of Cd(cadmium) being below 1/25-1/67 fold of the limits(concern: 1.5 mg/kg, action: 4 mg/kg). A level of Cu(copper) in paddy soil was 4.57 mg/kg which was below 1/11-1/27 fold of the threshold levels(concern: 50 mg/kg, action: 125 mg/kg), and Pb(lead) concentration in paddy soil was found to be a 4.68 mg/kg. In addition, Hg(mercury) concentration in paddy soil was to be a 0.03 mg/kg, which was below 1/131-1/328 fold of the threshold levels(concern: 4 mg/kg, action: 10 mg/kg). The average concentrations of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Hg in the polished rice samples were 0.037, 0.043, 0.280, 0.048 and 0.002 mg/kg, respectively. These levels are lower than those of other countries in rice grains. Assuming the rice consumption of 205.7 g/day by total dietary supplements in Korea, the amount of total weekly metal intake of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Hg by polished rice were estimated to be 0.0892, 1.035, 6.712, 1.161 and 0.054 ${\mu}g/kg$ body weigh/week, respectively. The PTWI(%) of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Hg were 5.95(inorganic arsenic), 0.26(total arsenic), 14.79, 0.19, 4.65 and 1.07% estimated to be 0.0892, 1.035, 6.712, 1.161 and 0.054 ${\mu}g/kg$ body weigh/week, respectively. In conclusion, it was appeared that the heavy metals contamination in the brown and polished rice should not be worried in Korea.

The Effect of Franchisor's On-going Support Services on Franchisee's Relationship Quality and Business Performance in the Foodservice Industry (외식 프랜차이즈 가맹본부의 사후 지원서비스가 가맹점의 관계품질과 경영성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jae-Han;Lee, Yong-Ki;Han, Kyu-Chul
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.1-34
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    • 2010
  • Introduction The purpose of this research is to develop overall model which involves the effect of ongoing support services by franchisor on franchisee's relationship quality(trust, satisfaction, and commitment) and business performance(financial and non-financial performance), and to investigate the relationships among trust, satisfaction, commitment, financial and non-financial performance. This study also suggests franchise business or franchise system should be based on long-term orientation between franchisor and franchisee rather than short-term orientation, or transactional relationship, and proposes the most effective way of providing on-going support services by franchisor with franchisee thru symbiotic relationship among franchisor and franchisee Research Model and Hypothesis The research model as Figure 1 shows the variables on-going support services which affect the relationship quality between franchisor and franchisee such as trust, satisfaction, and commitment, and also analyze the effects of relationship quality on business performance including financial and non-financial performance We established 12 hypotheses to test as follows; Relationship between on-going support services and trust H1: On-going support services factors (product category & price, logistics service, promotion, information providing & problem solving capability, supervisor's support, and education & training support) have positive effect on franchisee's trust. Relationship between on-going support services and satisfaction H2: On-going support services factors (product category & price, logistics service, promotion, information providing & problem solving capability, supervisor's support, and education & training support) have positive effect on franchisee's satisfaction. Relationship between on-going support services and commitment H3: On-going support services factors (product category & price, logistics service, promotion, information providing & problem solving capability, supervisor's support, and education & training support) have positive effect on franchisee's commitment. Relationship among relationship quality: trust, satisfaction, and commitment H4: Franchisee's trust has positive effect on franchisee's satisfaction. H5: Franchisee's trust has positive effect on franchisee's commitment. H6: Franchisee's satisfaction has positive effect on franchisee's commitment. Relationship between relationship quality and business performance H7: Franchisee's trust has positive effect on franchisee's financial performance. H8: Franchisee's trust has positive effect on franchisee's non-financial performance. H9: Franchisee's satisfaction has positive effect on franchisee's financial performance. H10: Franchisee's satisfaction has positive effect on franchisee's non-financial performance. H11: Franchisee's commitment has positive effect on franchisee's financial performance. H12: Franchisee's commitment has positive effect on franchisee's non-financial performance. Method The on-going support services were defined as an organized system of continuous supporting services by franchisor for the purpose of satisfying the expectation of franchisee based on long-term orientation and classified into six constructs such as product category & price, logistics service, promotion, providing information & problem solving capability, supervisor's support, and education & training support. The six constructs were measured agreement using a 7-point Likert-type scale (1 = strongly disagree to 7 = strongly agree)as follows. The product category & price was measured by four items: menu variety, price of food material provided by franchisor, and support for developing new menu. The logistics service was measured by six items: distribution system of franchisor, return policy for provided food materials, timeliness, inventory control level of franchisor, accuracy of order, and flexibility of emergency order. The promotion was measured by five items: differentiated promotion activities, brand image of franchisor, promotion effect such as customer increase, long-term plan of promotion, and micro-marketing concept in promotion. The providing information & problem solving capability was measured by information providing of new products, information of competitors, information of cost reduction, and efforts for solving problems in franchisee's operations. The supervisor's support was measured by supervisor operations, frequency of visiting franchisee, support by data analysis, processing the suggestions by franchisee, diagnosis and solutions for the franchisee's operations, and support for increasing sales in franchisee. Finally, the of education & training support was measured by recipe training by specialist, service training for store people, systemized training program, and tax & human resources support services. Analysis and results The data were analyzed using Amos. Figure 2 and Table 1 present the result of the structural equation model. Implications The results of this research are as follows: Firstly, the factors of product category, information providing and problem solving capacity influence only franchisee's satisfaction and commitment. Secondly, logistic services and supervising factors influence only trust and satisfaction. Thirdly, continuing education and training factors influence only franchisee's trust and commitment. Fourthly, sales promotion factor influences all the relationship quality representing trust, satisfaction, and commitment. Fifthly, regarding relationship among relationship quality, trust positively influences satisfaction, however, does not directly influence commitment, but satisfaction positively affects commitment. Therefore, satisfaction plays a mediating role between trust and commitment. Sixthly, trust positively influence only financial performance, and satisfaction and commitment influence positively both financial and non-financial performance.

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