• Title/Summary/Keyword: Black swan theory

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A Study of Intention to Violate COVID-19 Precautions from the Perspective of the Black Swan Theory (블랙 스완 이론 관점에서 바라본 코로나-19 예방 수칙 위반 의도에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Han-Min
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2022
  • Despite increasing damages caused by violations of COVID-19 precautions, studies on violations of precautions have not yet received much attention. This study identified antecedents that could theoretically influence the intention to violate COVID-19 precautions based on the black swan theory, and collected 215 responses by conducting an online survey from February 11, 2021 to March 10, 2021. As a result of the regression analysis, this study found that dissonance with COVID-19 preventive information, representativeness bias, and availability bias increase the intention to violate COVID-19 precautions. However, optimistic bias did not have a significant effect on the intention to violate precautions. This study not only provides new antecedents but also suggests theoretical evidence for decreasing intention to violate precautions. This study also proposes the necessity to identify differences in violation intention by regions, countries, and theories.

A Study on National Response Strategies of Large-scale Marine Disaster (대규모 해양재난의 국가적 대응전략에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Choonjae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.550-559
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    • 2019
  • The sinking of the M/V SEWOL in April 2014 was not a mere marine accident, but a marine catastrophe. This grim case developed into a social tragedy that impinged the national sentiment and communal integrity. It is imperative that thorough provisions and measures be outlined at the national level with regard to massive marine accidents, oil pollution, and natural disasters that might critically affect government affairs. Pivoting on "The Black Swan Theory," a concept of improperly rationalizing a national crisis based on uncertainties, this research assesses a variety of response strategies that minimize the national economic and social damage caused by a large-scale marine disaster. Along with the effort of minimizing any potential defects in each protective barrier, the "Black Swan Detection System of the Marine Disaster" needs to be incorporated to prevent cases wherein such defects lead to an actual crisis. Maritime safety must be systematically unified under a supervisory organization, and a structure for maritime crisis on-scene command and cooperation must likewise be established in order that every force on the scene of a marine disaster may act effectively and consistently under the direction of an on-scene commander.