• Title/Summary/Keyword: Best Point Estimate

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Decision of Critical Area Due to NPS Pollutant Loadings from Kyongan Stream Watershed using BASINS-SWAT (BASINS-SWAT 모델을 이용한 경안천 유역의 비점원 오염배출 중점관리 대상지역 결정)

  • Jang, Jae-Ho;Yoon, Chung-Gyeong;Jung, Kwang-Wook;Son, Yeung-Kwon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.51 no.5
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2009
  • In order to improve water quality of upper watershed of Paldang reservoir, it is necessary to evaluate non-point source pollution loads and identify critical watershed pollution sources. A GIS based Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied to evaluate model application and reliability, estimate NPS pollution load, identify critical watershed by NPS pollution sources, and suggest various best management practices for Kyongan Stream watershed. Yearly NPS pollution loads were estimated 30.0% SS, 60.1% TN and 35.4% TP, respectably. The watershed pollution load is mainly decided by precipitation condition and SS and nutrients load have a significant regression relationship. Based on 10-year average yearly NPS pollution load, critical sub-watersheds were identified. The No. 5 and 17 which have lots of relatively intensive agricultural fields and scattered industrial area were vary critical sub-watersheds and under more intensive pollution load. In order to control critical watershed, watershed best management practices such as scientific fertilizer, contour farming and parallel terrace, transferring the sloppy farmland to grass or forest and constructing a buffer zone, and constructing wetlands and retention ponds will be applied. Overall the SWAT model can be efficiently used for identification of critical sub-watersheds in order to develop a priority watershed management plan to reduce water pollutions.

A Study on the Method for Estimating the 30 m-Resolution Daily Temperature Extreme Value Using PRISM and GEV Method (PRISM과 GEV 방법을 활용한 30 m 해상도의 격자형 기온 극값 추정 방법 연구)

  • Lee, Joonlee;Ahn, Joong-Bae;Jeong, Ha-Gyu
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.697-709
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    • 2016
  • This study estimates and evaluates the extreme value of 30 m-resolution daily maximum and minimum temperatures over South Korea, using inverse distance weighting (IDW), parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) and generalized extreme value (GEV) method. The three experiments are designed and performed to find the optimal estimation strategy to obtain extreme value. First experiment (EXP1) applies GEV firstly to automated surface observing system (ASOS) to estimate extreme value and then applies IDW to produce high-resolution extreme values. Second experiment (EXP2) is same as EXP1, but using PRISM to make the high-resolution extreme value instead of IDW. Third experiment (EXP3) firstly applies PRISM to ASOS to produce the high-resolution temperature field, and then applies GEV method to make high resolution extreme value data. By comparing these 3 experiments with extreme values obtained from observation data, we find that EXP3 shows the best performance to estimate extreme values of maximum and minimum temperatures, followed by EXP1 and EXP2. It is revealed that EXP1 and EXP2 have a limitation to estimate the extreme value at each grid point correctly because the extreme values of these experiments with 30 m-resolution are calculated from only 60 extreme values obtained from ASOS. On the other hand, the extreme value of EXP3 is similar to observation compared to others, since EXP3 produces 30m-resolution daily temperature through PRISM, and then applies GEV to that result at each grid point. This result indicates that the quality of statistically produced high-resolution extreme values which are estimated from observation data is different depending on the combination and procedure order of statistical methods.

Characteristics of Physical Properties of Rocks and Their Mutual Relations (암석의 종류와 방향에 따른 물리적 특성과 상호관계)

  • 원연호;강추원;김종인;박현식
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.261-268
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    • 2004
  • The main objectives of this study are to investigate the anisotropic characteristics of rocks and to evaluate the relationships between physical properties. A series of experiments were performed in three mutually perpendicular directions for three rock types, which are granite, granitic gneiss and limestone. The relationships of measured physical properties were evaluated. The results of ultrasonic wave velocity measurement show that granite of three rock types gives the largest directional difference, and that the wave velocity in a plane parallel to a transversely isotropic one is dominantly faster than that in a subvertical or vertical plane. It implies that ultrasonic wave velocity for rock could be used as a useful tool for estimating the degree of anisotropy. The ratio of uniaxial compressive strength to Brazilian tensile strength ranges approximately from 13 to 16 for granite. from 8 to 9 for granite gneiss, and from 9 to 18 for limestone. The directional differences for granite and granitic gneiss are very small, and on the other hand, is relatively large for limestone. It is suggested that strength of rock makes quite difference depending on the rock types and loading directions, especially for the anisotropic rocks such as transversely isotropic or orthotropic rocks. The ratio of uniaxial compressive strength to point load strength index ranges from 18 to 20 for granite, from 17 to 19 for granitic gneiss, and from 21 to 24 for limestone. These results show that point load strength index makes also a difference depending on rock types and directions. Therefore. it should be noted that the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength to point load strength index could be applied to all rock types. Uniaxial compressive strength shows relatively good relationship with point load strength index, Schmidt hammer rebound value, and tensile strength. In particulat, point load strength index is shown to be the best comparative relationship. It is indicated that point load test is the most useful tool to estimate an uniaxial compressive strength indirectly.

The Estimation of Parameters to minimize the Energy Function of the Piecewise Constant Model Using Three-way Analysis of Variance (3원 변량분석을 이용한 구분적으로 일정한 모델의 에너지 함수 최소화를 위한 매개변수들 추정)

  • Joo, Ki-See;Cho, Deog-Sang;Seo, Jae-Hyung
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.846-852
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    • 2012
  • The result of imaging segmentation becomes different with the parameters involved in the segmentation algorithms; therefore, the parameters for the optimal segmentation have been found through a try and error. In this paper, we propose the method to find the best values of parameters involved in the area-based active contour method using three-way ANOVA. The segmentation result applied by three-way ANOVA is compared with the optimal segmentation which is drawn by user. We use the global consistency rate for comparing two segmentations. Finally, we estimate the main effects and interactions between each parameter using three-way ANOVA, and then calculate the point and interval estimate to find the best values of three parameters. The proposed method will be a great help to find the optimal parameters before working the motion segmentation using piecewise constant model.

Review of Uncertainties in Applying GIS Data and Hydrological Models to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Best Management Practices (수리모델과 GIS 데이터를 이용한 최적관리방안의 평가에 대한 불확실성의 재고)

  • Lee, Tae-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.245-258
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    • 2011
  • Best management practices (BMPs) are widely accepted and implemented as a mitigation method for soil erosion and non-point source problems. Estimating the amount of soil erosion and the effectiveness of BMPs using hydrological models help to understand the condition, identify the problems, and make plans for conservation practices in an area, typically a watershed. However, the accuracy and reliability of assessment of BMP impacts estimated by hydrological models can be often questionable due to the uncertainties from various sources including GIS(Geographic Information System) data, scale, and model. This study reviewed the development and the background of hydrological models, and the modeling issues such as the selection of models, scale, and uncertainties of data and models. This study also discussed the advantage of a small scale and spatially distributed model to estimate the impacts of BMPs.

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Software Development Effort Estimation Using Function Point (기능점수를 이용한 소프트웨어 개발노력 추정)

  • Lee, Sang-Un;Gang, Jeong-Ho;Park, Jung-Yang
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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    • v.9D no.4
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    • pp.603-612
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    • 2002
  • Area of software measurement in software engineering is active more than thirty years. There is a huge collection of researches but still no concrete software development effort and cost estimation model. If we want to measure the effort and cost of a software project, we need to estimate the size of the software. A number of software metrics are identified in the literature; the most frequently cited measures are LOC (line of code) and FPA (function point analysis). The FPA approach has features that overcome the major problems with using LOC as a measure of system size. This paper presents simple linear regression model that related software development effort to software size measured in FP. The model is derived from the plotting of the effort and FP relation. The experimental data are collected from 789 software development projects that were recently developed under the various development environments and development methods. Also, the model is compare with other regression analysis model. The presented model has the best estimation ability among the software effort estimation models.

A Study on the Pump Efficiency Measurement Using the Thermodynamic Method (열역학적 방법을 사용한 펌프 효율 측정에 관한 연구)

  • Bae, Cherl-O;Vuong, Duc-Phuc;Lee, Hwi-Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.267-272
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    • 2012
  • Carbon emission generated by energy issues is one of the major problems which all countries concern. The International Energy Agency recommends to improve 15-30[%] of energy efficiency than now. Government has pushed the domestic energy saving policies and incentives and penalties were also given in that direction. Pumps are widely used to transfer fluids and they consume at least 20[%] power of each nation. Their loss of energy is huge if they have been operated at low efficiency for long time. Low efficiency of these pumps is often due to incorrect design or degradation. Pump efficiency can be measured to estimate energy loss. If it is low, the pump may be repaired or replaced with new one. This paper introduces thermodynamic method to measure pump efficiency using only two kinds of sensors for temperature and pressure. It can calculate best efficiency point(BEP) of actual systems easily and fast. Its values were compared with the real performance curve provided by pump maker and we got almost similar performance curves from the repeated experiment.

The Use of Confidence Interval of Measures of Diagnostic Accuracy (진단검사 정확도 평가지표의 신뢰구간)

  • Oh, Tae-Ho;Pak, Son-Il
    • Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.319-323
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    • 2015
  • The performance of diagnostic test accuracy is usually summarized by a variety of statistics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, and kappa. These indices are most commonly presented when evaluations of competing diagnostic tests are reported, and it is of utmost importance to compare the accuracies of diagnostic tests to decide on the best available test for certain medical disorder. However, it is important to emphasize that specific point values of these indices are merely estimates. If parameter estimates are reported without a measure of uncertainty (precision), knowledgeable readers cannot know the range within which the true values of the indices are likely to lie. Therefore, when evaluations of diagnostic accuracy are reported the precision of estimates should be stated in parallel. To reflect the precision of any estimate of a diagnostic performance characteristic or of the difference between performance characteristics, the computation of confidential interval (CI), an indicator of precision, is widely used in medical literatures in that CIs are more informative to interpret test results than the simple point estimates. The majority of peer-reviewed journals usually require CIs to be specified for descriptive estimates, whereas domestic veterinary journals seem less vigilant on this issues. This paper describes how to calculate the indices and associated CIs using practical examples when assessing diagnostic test performance.

Determination of Probable Rainfall Intensity Formulas for Designing Storm Sewer Systems at Incheon District (우수거 설계를 위한 인천지방에서의 확률강우강도식의 산정)

  • Ahn, Tae-Jin;Kim, Kyung-Sub
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.99-106
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents a procedure for determining the design rainfall depth and the design rainfall intensity at Incheon city area in Korea. In this study the eight probability distributions are considered to estimate the probable rainfall depths for 11 different durations. The Kolmogorov - Smirnov test and the Chi-square test are adopted to test each distribution. The probable rainfall intensity formulas are then determined by i) the least squares (LS) method, ii) the least median squares (LMS) method, iii) the reweighted least squares method based on the LMS (RLS), and iv) the constrained regression (CR) model. The Talbot, the Sherman, the Japanese, and the Unified type are considered to determine the best type for the Incheon station. The root mean squared (RMS) errors are computed to test the formulas derived by four methods. It is found that the Unified type is the most reliable and that all methods presented herein are acceptable for determining the coefficients of rainfall intensity formulas from an engineering point of view.

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A Study for Obtaining Weights in Pairwise Comparison Matrix in AHP

  • Jeong, Hyeong-Chul;Lee, Jong-Chan;Jhun, Myoung-Shic
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.531-541
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    • 2012
  • In this study, we consider various methods to estimate the weights of a pairwise comparison matrix in the Analytic Hierarchy Process widely applied in various decision-making fields. This paper uses a data dependent simulation to evaluate the statistical accuracy, minimum violation and minimum norm of the obtaining weight methods from a reciprocal symmetric matrix. No method dominates others in all criteria. Least squares methods perform best in point of mean squared errors; however, the eigenvectors method has an advantage in the minimum norm.