• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 1994.10a
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• pp.49-58
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• 1994

The methods of estimation of VTS effectivenss are compared and the worldwide literature related to the VTS effectiveness is reviewed. The review suggests three potential approaches ; simulation ; synthesis of expert opinion and statistical analysis of casualties. this study adopted dissimilar approaches to estimate the VTS effectiveness to the earlier studies ; the combination of synthesis of expert opinion and causal analysis of casualty. The VTS effectiveness is derived by multiplying casualty rate reduction factors by the effect level of causal factors. The development of casualty rate reduction factors was based on the questionnaire survey and the evolution of effect levels was based on the causal analysis using functional block diagram. According to these procedures the maximum benefit to be obtained through the introduction of a VTS system was approximately 46 percent overall. The collision reduction rate was estimated to be approximately 50 percent for a VTS system with advanced radar surveillance. And 47 percent of groundings 36 percent of rammings and 21 percent of founderings could be reduced by the introduction of VTS. These figures are more or less the same to the earlier studies. The VTS effectiveness by the different causal factor groups was examined. VTS may reduce about 68 percent of causal factors classified as environmental conditions 40 percent of human factors and 35 percent of technical factors in collision accidents. As a whole 60 percent of environmental factors 41 percent of human factors and 20 percent of technical factors may be prevented by a VTS. The key variable of the effectiveness percentage is the value of weight coefficient $\delta$. Therefore differing values for this input was discussed and the impact that these variations have on the VS effectiveness noted. As the results of sensitivity analysis of VTS effectiveness by $\pm$10 percent the effectiveness is varied approximately three to seven percent by casualty type. And the value is changed roughly four to eight percent by a $\pm$10 percent variation by different sub-areas.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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• v.31 no.11B
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• pp.997-1004
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• 2006

There is a growing demand to access the broadband internet while on the very fast move. In order to meet these users needs, much research has been made for providing the broadband internet and HDTV services via satellite broadband internet systems even at top train speeds above 200km/h. In this paper, economic analyses on the satellite broadband internet services for KTX are to be reviewed. Broadband internet to trains in Europe are investigated, and Boeing cases for planes are also examined. In the first step, system configuration which is composed of a hub, terminals, satellite, and gap fillers for the tunnel areas has been proposed. A terminal includes a ultra-fast high gain antenna installed on the roof of the train, and APs inside the coaches. Secondly, cost estimation on the capital expenditures as well as operating expenditures has been performed in the proposed configuration. From the european and Boeing cases, demand and tariff are postulated, consequently, service revenues are derived on the scenario basis. Thirdly, estimated costs and derived revenues make up net present value and internal rate of return in each scenario. Finally, conclusions and contribution of this study are presented.

• Proceedings of the KOSOMBE Conference
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• v.1991 no.05
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• pp.65-70
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• 1991

A hybrid model which uses a probabilistic model and a MLP(multi layer perceptron) model for pattern recognition of EMG(electromyogram) signals is proposed in this paper. MLP model has problems which do not guarantee global minima of error due to learning method and have different approximation grade to bayesian probabilities due to different amounts and quality of training data, the number of hidden layers and hidden nodes, etc. Especially in the case of new test data which exclude design samples, the latter problem produces quite different results. The error probability of probabilistic model is closely related to the estimation error of the parameters used in the model and fidelity of assumtion. Generally, it is impossible to introduce the bayesian classifier to the probabilistic model of EMG signals because of unknown priori probabilities and is estimated by MLE(maximum likelihood estimate). In this paper we propose the method which get the MAP(maximum a posteriori probability) in the probabilistic model by estimating the priori probability distribution which minimize the error probability using the MLP. This method minimize the error probability of the probabilistic model as long as the realization of the MLP is optimal and approximate the minimum of error probability of each class of both models selectively. Alocating the reference coordinate of EMG signal to the outside of the body make it easy to suit to the applications which it is difficult to define and seperate using internal body coordinate. Simulation results show the benefit of the proposed model compared to use the MLP and the probabilistic model seperately.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.1-11
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• 2012

The purpose of this paper is to estimate 'willingness to pay' for mobile data service by using contingent valuation method with double bounded dichotomous choice question. The findings are as follows.: First, the willingness to pay of mobile data service is considerably lower than current retail price. Second, the perceived degree of mobile data service such as awareness and benefit recognition is positively related to the willingness to pay of mobile data service. Our results suggest that active promotion and strengthening of the content of mobile data service are needed in order to enhance the profitability of mobile operators. The analysis results will be used to set the mobile operator's pricing strategy and to build up a successful communication policies in the mobile ecosystem.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.115-122
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• 2016

The classical statistical approach using test data samples to estimate true value of Random Variables by calculating mean and variation (standard deviation or coefficient of variation) of samples is very useful to understand the existing condition of the structure. But with this classical approach, our prior knowledge through educational background and professional experience cannot provide any benefit to make decisions by the structural engineers. This paper shows the role of Bayesian methodology by providing chance of using valuable prior knowledge to come up with more accurate estimation of structural condition. This paper also shows how important it is to have a proper prior estimate of Random Variables and corresponding confidence level through gathering and studying more relevant information.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.103-133
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• 2014

We consider the economic value of emergency medical facilities. An emergency medical facility affects the medical environments in a community, and thus the social demand on the facility increases as the demand of qualified public health service increases. Regarding the increased demand and the limited resources of fiscal budget, it is important to scientifically evaluate the social benefit of the public investment on emergency medical facilities, as the results of evaluation can help make better budgetary decision on each public investment project of emergency medical facilities. In this paper, we try to estimate the economic value of emergency medical facilities based upon the estimated changes in preventable death rate by the facility and the statistical value of life. We hope the results contribute to improve the budgetary decision making on the emergency medical facility projects, thus the public health policies.

• Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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• v.47 no.3
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• pp.235-241
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• 2009

The aim of this study was to estimate the benefit from repeated examinations in the diagnosis of enterobiasis in nursery school groups, and to test the effectiveness of individual-based risk predictions using different methods. A total of 604 children were examined using double, and 96 using triple, anal swab examinations. The questionnaires for parents, structured observations, and interviews with supervisors were used to identify factors of possible infection risk. In order to model the risk of enterobiasis at individual level, a similarity-based machine learning and prediction software Constud was compared with data mining methods in the Statistica 8 Data Miner software package. Prevalence according to a single examination was 22.5%; the increase as a result of double examinations was 8.2%. Single swabs resulted in an estimated prevalence of 20.1% among children examined 3 times; double swabs increased this by 10.1%, and triple swabs by 7.3%. Random forest classification, boosting classification trees, and Constud correctly predicted about 2/3 of the results of the second examination. Constud estimated a mean prevalence of 31.5% in groups. Constud was able to yield the highest overall fit of individual-based predictions while boosting classification tree and random forest models were more effective in recognizing Enterobius positive persons. As a rule, the actual prevalence of enterobiasis is higher than indicated by a single examination. We suggest using either the values of the mean increase in prevalence after double examinations compared to single examinations or group estimations deduced from individual-level modelled risk predictions.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.81 no.3
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• pp.280-286
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• 1992

When the social cost-benefit analysis is applied for analyzing the public forestry investment, the choice of discount rate to be used in analysis is critical. In this paper, the social discount rate discussed in the public economics was introduced and the social time preference rate as a measure of that was estimated for Korea. The component parameters of the model used are : the elasticity of social marginal utility of consumption and the growth rate of real consumption. The results for the social time preference rate and the elasticity of social marginal utility of consumption are 6.2% and -1.38, respectively, which are plausible and thus can be used as a useful basis in establishing rational resource allocation policies.

• Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.428-433
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• 2009

Dissolved oxygen is considered as one of the important water-quality constituents in streams from one century ago and fishes perish in low dissolved oxygen concentration. Environmental scientists and engineers have introduced the deterministic model to estimate dissolved oxygen concentration of streams and recommended the use of the Delta Method (DM), Approximate Delta Method (ADM), Extreme Value Method (EVM) and Optimization Method (OPT) which can be applied in no spatial variation of dissolved oxygen. The diurnal or annual variation of dissolved oxygen is mainly determined from the parameters such as reaeration rate, 1st production rate and respiration rate which are related to dissolved oxygen. Each method was briefly introduced and applied to two sampling sites of Anseong Stream watershed in this paper. The limitation, advantages and disadvantages of each method were reviewed and analyzed after running the each method. From these analyses, the benefit-cost approach to estimate dissolved oxygen effectively in streams was recommended.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.10 no.10
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• pp.2803-2809
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• 2009

For a successful construction project not only construction engineering and project management technology but also economic evaluation technique is required. Design and construction technologies are necessary to receive a project order. However, construction management technology which can be apply from the project initial phase to the project operation and management phase is required to create a benefit from the project. Construction management technology is one of the effective factors for project success. Economical and efficient cost management from the planning phase influences the project success. This study investigated cost flow and cost factors of domestic Sewage Treatment Plant project for systematic analysis of cost items following the entire project phase. Particularly, data modeling based on domestic Sewage Treatment Equipment maintenance cost DB was performed, and maintenance cost estimation trend line is suggested using Monte carlo Simulation Method to decrease uncertainty of actual results DB and for feasibility study. Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society. The Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society.