• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.219-235
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• 2019

Scheduled inspections of common crossings are one of the main cost drivers of railway maintenance. Prognostics and health management (PHM) approach and modern monitoring means offer many possibilities in the optimization of inspections and maintenance. The present paper deals with data driven prognosis of the common crossing remaining useful life (RUL) that is based on an inertial monitoring system. The problem of scheduled inspections system for common crossings is outlined and analysed. The proposed analysis of inertial signals with the maximal overlap discrete wavelet packet transform (MODWPT) and Shannon entropy (SE) estimates enable to extract the spectral features. The relevant features for the acceleration components are selected with application of Lasso (Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regularization. The features are fused with time domain information about the longitudinal position of wheels impact and train velocities by multivariate regression. The fused structural health (SH) indicator has a significant correlation to the lifetime of crossing. The RUL prognosis is performed on the linear degradation stochastic model with recursive Bayesian update. Prognosis testing metrics show the promising results for common crossing inspection scheduling improvement.

• 천문학회보
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.40.4-41
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• 2018

The current 'standard model' of cosmology provides a minimal theoretical framework that can explain the gaussian, nearly scale-invariant density perturbations observed in the CMB to the late time clustering of galaxies. However accepting this framework, requires that we include within our cosmic inventory a vacuum energy that is ~122 orders of magnitude lower than Quantum Mechanical predictions, or alternatively a new scalar field (dark energy) that has negative pressure. An alternative approach to adding extra components to the Universe would be to modify the equations of Gravity. Although GR is supported by many current observations there are still alternative models that can be considered. Recently there have been many works attempting to test for modified gravity using the large scale clustering of galaxies, ISW, cluster abundance, RSD, 21cm observations, and weak lensing. In this work, we compare various modified gravity models using cosmic shear data from the Deep Lens Survey as well as data from CMB, SNe Ia, and BAO. We use the Bayesian Evidence to quantify the comparison robustly, which naturally penalizes complex models with weak data support. In this talk we present our methodology and preliminary results that show f(R) gravity is mildly disfavoured by the data.

• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• 제34권6호
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• pp.451-456
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• 2018

The use of single component distribution to describe the irregular stand structure of degraded forest often lead to bias. Such biasness can be overcome by the application of finite mixture distribution. Therefore, in this study, finite mixture distribution was used to characterise the irregular stand structure of the Gmelina arborea plantation in Omo forest reserve. Thirty plots, ten each from the three stands established in 1984, 1990 and 2005 were used. The data were pooled per stand and fitted. Four finite mixture distributions including normal mixture, lognormal mixture, gamma mixture and Weibull mixture were considered. The method of maximum likelihood was used to fit the finite mixture distributions to the data. Model assessment was based on negative loglikelihood value ($-{\Lambda}{\Lambda}$), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that the mixture distributions provide accurate and precise characterisation of the irregular diameter distribution of the degraded Gmelina arborea stands. The $-{\Lambda}{\Lambda}$, AIC, BIC and RMSE values ranged from -715.233 to -348.375, 703.926 to 1433.588, 718.598 to 1451.334 and 3.003 to 7.492, respectively. Their performances were relatively the same. This approach can be used to describe other irregular forest stand structures, especially the multi-species forest.

• 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.87-98
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• 2022

This study aims to prepare a technical protocol for identifying the source of nitrate in water using nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) stable isotope ratios. The technical processes for nitrate sources identification are composed of site investigation, sample collection and analysis, isotope analysis, source identification using isotope characteristics, and source apportionment for multiple potential sources with the Bayesian isotope mixing model. Characteristics of various nitrate potential sources are reviewed, and their typical ranges of δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O are comparatively analyzed and summarized. This study also summarizes the current knowledge on the dual-isotope approach and how to correlate the field-relevant information such as land use and hydrochemical data to the nitrate source identification.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.359-374
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• 2022

Geology conditions are crucial in decision-making during the planning and design phase of a tunnel project. Estimation of the geology conditions of road tunnels is subject to significant uncertainties. In this work, the effectiveness of a novel regression method in estimating geological or geotechnical parameters of road tunnel projects was explored. This method, called Gaussian process regression (GPR), formulates the learning of the regressor within a Bayesian framework. The GPR model was trained with data of old tunnel projects. To verify its feasibility, the GPR technique was applied to a road tunnel to predict the state of three geological/geomechanical parameters of Rock Mass Rating (RMR), Rock Structure Rating (RSR) and Q-value. Finally, in order to validate the GPR approach, the forecasted results were compared to the field-observed results. From this comparison, it was concluded that, the GPR is presented very good predictions. The R-squared values between the predicted results of the GPR vs. field-observed results for the RMR, RSR and Q-value were obtained equal to 0.8581, 0.8148 and 0.8788, respectively.

• Advances in nano research
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• 제12권5호
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• pp.489-499
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• 2022

Nanofluids have recently triggered a substantial scientific interest as cooling media. However, their stability is challenging for successful engagement in industrial applications. Different factors, including temperature, nanoparticles and base fluids characteristics, pH, ultrasonic power and frequency, agitation time, and surfactant type and concentration, determine the nanofluid stability regime. Indeed, it is often too complicated and even impossible to accurately find the conditions resulting in a stabilized nanofluid. Furthermore, there are no empirical, semi-empirical, and even intelligent scenarios for anticipating the stability of nanofluids. Therefore, this study introduces a straightforward and reliable intelligent classifier for discriminating among the stability regimes of alumina-water nanofluids based on the Zeta potential margins. In this regard, various intelligent classifiers (i.e., deep learning and multilayer perceptron neural network, decision tree, GoogleNet, and multi-output least squares support vector regression) have been designed, and their classification accuracy was compared. This comparison approved that the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) with the SoftMax activation function trained by the Bayesian regularization algorithm is the best classifier for the considered task. This intelligent classifier accurately detects the stability regimes of more than 90% of 345 different nanofluid samples. The overall classification accuracy and misclassification percent of 90.1% and 9.9% have been achieved by this model. This research is the first try toward anticipting the stability of water-alumin nanofluids from some easily measured independent variables.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제47권6호
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• pp.759-779
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• 2023

The paper proposes two hybrid metaheuristic optimization and artificial neural network (ANN) methods for the close prediction of the ultimate axial compressive capacity of concentrically loaded concrete filled double skin steel tube (CFDST) columns. Two metaheuristic optimization, namely genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), approaches enable the dynamic training architecture underlying an ANN model by optimizing the number and sizes of hidden layers as well as the weights and biases of the neurons, simultaneously. The former is termed as GA-ANN, and the latter as PSO-ANN. These techniques utilize the gradient-based optimization with Bayesian regularization that enhances the optimization process. The proposed GA-ANN and PSO-ANN methods construct the predictive ANNs from 125 available experimental datasets and present the superior performance over standard ANNs. Both the hybrid GA-ANN and PSO-ANN methods are encoded within a user-friendly graphical interface that can reliably map out the accurate ultimate axial compressive capacity of CFDST columns with various geometry and material parameters.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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• pp.307-307
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• 2021

개념적 강우-유출모형에서 토양수분과 관련된 물리적 거동은 간략화 된 형태로 강우 및 온도자료를 활용하여 중간변량(state variable)으로 간접적으로 고려되고 있다. 특히 강우-유출모형에 초기함수 조건은 선행함수조건을 고려하여 수문지질학적 평가를 통하여 결정되어야 하나, 일반적으로 가정되거나 모형에서 간략화 된 분석과정을 통해 추정되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 토양의 Water Balance 모형 기반의 개념적 토양수분 추정모형을 활용하였다. 토양수분의 시간적 변동성을 평가하는데 있어서 연속적으로 측정된 In-situ 토양수분 자료를 이용하여 모형의 적합성을 평가하였다. Green-Ampt 방법과 중력식 침투방법과 온도를 활용한 증발산 추정기법을 연계한 토양함수 평가 모형을 개발하였다. In-situ 토양수분 자료와 유역의 강수량 및 온도자료를 이용한 관련 매개변수를 Bayesian 기법을 통해 추정하였으며 매개변수의 민감도를 평가하여 제시하였다. 최종적으로 제안된 모형의 활용측면에서 강우-유출모형의 초기함수 조건으로써의 역할을 평가하였다. 구체적으로 첨두유량 및 유출고와 초기함수조건과의 관계를 제시하고 강우-유출모형에서 활용방안을 제시하고자 한다.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제12권4호
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• pp.241-248
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• 1997

건설중이거나 기기 이력이 부족한 원자력 발전소에 대한 확률론적 안전성평가에 사용되는 일반 기기 신뢰도 데이타를 기 개발된 일반 데이타 및 발전소 데이타를 취합하여 구한다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서 사용한 계산 Code는 모수적 선험적 베이지안 방법에 근거하여 3단계 베이지안 방법으로 한국 원자력연구소에서 개발한 MPRDP Code이다. 일반 자료원에서 주로 자료를 취합하였으므로 각 문헌들 사이에 존재할 수 있는 종속성을 고려하여 Code에서 처리하였다. 본 논문에서는 결과로 얻어진 기기 신뢰도 자료표의 일부분을 보여준다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.179-211
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• 2023

This paper investigates the relationship between the spread of COVID-19 and time preference. In contrast to previous studies that compared time preferences before and during the pandemic, this study estimates time preferences during the COVID-19 period using eight surveys conducted over two years. Additionally, a regression analysis was conducted on the number of new COVID-19 cases and the time elapsed since the outbreak, with estimated time preference as the dependent variable. Despite a small sample size, statistically significant results were obtained, showing that as the number of new cases increased, time preference also increased. However, this effect diminished over time and disappeared by the end of 2021 in Japan. This may be due to the public's growing familiarity with the risks of COVID-19 and the availability of vaccines and treatments. Despite a significant increase in new cases in 2022, time preference was lower than immediately after the outbreak, and this was reflected in private investments. Immediately after the outbreak of COVID-19, private investments decreased by 12% compared to the previous year, but the investments are returning in 2022 despite the surge in the number of cases. The trend of time preference explains the trend of Japanese private investments very well.