• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• 제67권2호
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• pp.105-112
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• 2009

Background: Solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) are encountered incidentally in 0.2% of patients who undergo chest X-ray or chest CT. Although SPN has malignant potential, it cannot be treated surgically by biopsy in all patients. The first stage is to determine if patients with SPN require periodic observation and biopsy or resection. An important early step in the management of patients with SPN is to estimate the clinical pretest probability of a malignancy. In every patient with SPN, it is recommended that clinicians estimate the pretest probability of a malignancy either qualitatively using clinical judgment or quantitatively using a validated model. This study examined whether Bayesian analysis or multiple logistic regression analysis is more predictive of the probability of a malignancy in SPN. Methods: From January 2005 to December 2008, this study enrolled 63 participants with SPN at the Kangnam Sacred Hospital. The accuracy of Bayesian analysis and Bayesian analysis with a FDG-PET scan, and Multiple logistic regression analysis was compared retrospectively. The accurate probability of a malignancy in a patient was compared by taking the chest CT and pathology of SPN patients with <30 mm at CXR incidentally. Results: From those participated in study, 27 people (42.9%) were classified as having a malignancy, and 36 people were benign. The result of the malignant estimation by Bayesian analysis was 0.779 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.657 to 0.874). Using Multiple logistic regression analysis, the result was 0.684 (95% CI, 0.555 to 0.796). This suggests that Bayesian analysis provides a more accurate examination than multiple logistic regression analysis. Conclusion: Bayesian analysis is better than multiple logistic regression analysis in predicting the probability of a malignancy in solitary pulmonary nodules but the difference was not statistically significant.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.911-919
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• 2011

최근 의학에서는 정신 질환과 관련된 위험 인자를 찾는 것이 중요해지고 있다. 인자들을 찾아서 인자들의 특성과 관련성을 파악하면 병을 사전에 예방 할 수 있다. 또한 이 연구는 의학 발전에 많은 도움을 줄 수 있다. 정신 질환에 대한 위험요인은 주로 로지스틱 회귀모형을 사용하여 찾아 왔다. 하지만 이 논문에서는 데이터마이닝 기법 중 CART, C5.0, 로지스틱, 신경망, 베이지안 네트워크 방법을 이용한다. 정신장애 질병인 섬망자료를 적용하여, 최적의 모형인 베이지안 네트워크 방법을 선택하였다. 이 베이지안 네트워크 기법을 위험 요소를 찾는데 사용하고, 이 위험인자 간의 관계를 방사형 그래프를 통해서 규명하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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• 제29권4호
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• pp.407-422
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• 2000

This article is concerned with the selecting predictor variables to be included in building a class of binary response t-link regression models where both probit and logistic regression models can e approximately taken as members of the class. It is based on a modification of the stochastic search variable selection method(SSVS), intended to propose and develop a Bayesian procedure that used probabilistic considerations for selecting promising subsets of predictor variables. The procedure reformulates the binary response t-link regression setup in a hierarchical truncated normal mixture model by introducing a set of hyperparameters that will be used to identify subset choices. In this setup, the most promising subset of predictors can be identified as that with highest posterior probability in the marginal posterior distribution of the hyperparameters. To highlight the merit of the procedure, an illustrative numerical example is given.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.155-166
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• 2002

Neural networks have been studied as a popular tool for classification and they are very flexible. Also, they are used for many applications of pattern classification and pattern recognition. This paper focuses on Bayesian approach to feed-forward neural networks with single hidden layer of units with logistic activation. In this model, we are interested in deciding the number of nodes of neural network model with p input units, one hidden layer with m hidden nodes and one output unit in Bayesian setup for fixed m. Here, we use the latent variable into the prior of the coefficient regression, and we introduce the 'sequential step' which is based on the idea of the data augmentation by Tanner and Wong(1787). The MCMC method(Gibbs sampler and Metropolish algorithm) can be used to overcome the complicated Bayesian computation. Finally, a proposed method is applied to a simulated data.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제27권5호
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• pp.579-588
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• 2020

Obligor defaults are cross-sectionally correlated as obligors share common economic conditions; in addition obligors are longitudinally correlated so that an economic shock like the IMF crisis in 1998 lasts for a period of time. A longitudinal correlation should be used to construct statistical scenarios of stress test with which we replace a type of artificial scenario that the banks have used. We propose a Bayesian model to accommodate such correlation structures. Using 402 obligors to a domestic bank in Korea, our model with a dynamic correlation is compared to a Bayesian model with a stationary longitudinal correlation and the classical logistic regression model. Our model generates statistical financial statement under a stress situation on individual obligor basis so that the genearted financial statement produces a similar distribution of credit grades to when the IMF crisis occurred and complies with Basel IV (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, 2017) requirement that the credit grades under a stress situation are not sensitive to the business cycle.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제26권2호
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• pp.87-96
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• 2024

This paper proposes a logistic multinomial regression approach to model the spatial cross-correlation of damage probabilities among different damage states in an expanded transportation network. Utilizing Bayesian theory and the multinomial logistic model, we analyze the damage states and probabilities of bridges while incorporating damage correlation. This correlation is considered both between bridges in a network and within each bridge's damage states. The correlation model of damage probabilities is applied to the seismic assessment of a portion of Tehran's transportation network, encompassing 26 bridges. Additionally, we introduce extra daily traffic time (EDTT) as an operational parameter of the transportation network and employ the shortest path algorithm to determine the path between two nodes. Our results demonstrate that incorporating the correlation of damage probabilities reduces the travel time of the selected network. The average decrease in travel time for the correlated case compared to the uncorrelated case, using two selected EDTT models, is 53% and 71%, respectively.

• 대한간호학회지
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.423-431
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• 2011

Purpose: The study was designed to determine the discriminating ability of a Bayesian network (BN) for predicting risk for pressure ulcers. Methods: Analysis was done using a retrospective cohort, nursing records representing 21,114 hospital days, 3,348 patients at risk for ulcers, admitted to the intensive care unit of a tertiary teaching hospital between January 2004 and January 2007. A BN model and two logistic regression (LR) versions, model-I and .II, were compared, varying the nature, number and quality of input variables. Classification competence and case coverage of the models were tested and compared using a threefold cross validation method. Results: Average incidence of ulcers was 6.12%. Of the two LR models, model-I demonstrated better indexes of statistical model fits. The BN model had a sensitivity of 81.95%, specificity of 75.63%, positive and negative predictive values of 35.62% and 96.22% respectively. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) was 85.01% implying moderate to good overall performance, which was similar to LR model-I. However, regarding case coverage, the BN model was 100% compared to 15.88% of LR. Conclusion: Discriminating ability of the BN model was found to be acceptable and case coverage proved to be excellent for clinical use.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제35권2호
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• pp.311-325
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• 2022

0의 값을 과도하게 포함하는 가산자료는 다양한 연구 분야에서 흔히 나타난다. 영과잉 모형은 영과잉 가산자료를 분석하기 위해 가장 일반적으로 사용되는 모형이다. 영과잉 모형에 대한 전통적인 베이지안 추론은 조건부 사후분포의 형태가 폐쇄형 분포로 나타나지 않아 모형 적합 과정이 용이하지 않다는 한계점이 존재했다. 그러나 최근 Pillow와 Scott (2012)과 Polson 등 (2013)이 제안한 폴랴-감마 자료확대전략으로 인해, 로지스틱 회귀모형과 음이항 회귀모형에서 깁스 샘플링을 통한 추론이 가능해지면서, 영과잉 모형에 대한 베이지안 추론이 용이해졌다. 본 논문에서는 베이지안 추론에 기반한 영과잉 음이항 회귀모형을 Min과 Agresti(2005)에서 분석된 약학 연구 자료에 적용해본다. 분석에 사용된 자료는 경시적 영과잉 가산자료로 복잡한 자료 구조를 가지고 있다. 모형 적합 과정에서는 깁스 샘플링을 통한 추론을 수행하기 위해 폴랴-감마 자료확대전략을 사용한다.

• 한국인터넷방송통신학회논문지
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.13-18
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• 2010

오늘날의 스팸 메일이 메일 서버와 네트워크 저장장치의 대부분을 차지함으로 인해 네트워크 부하와 같은 부정적인 문제가 발생하고 있으며 사용자 입장에서는 스팸을 삭제하기 위한 시간과 자원 소모 같은 문제를 가지고 있다. 자동 스팸 메일 필터링은 문제 해결위한 필수적인 요소로 부각 되었다. 대표적인 방법은 나이브 베이지안 방법과 달리 PCA를 통하여 많은 차원을 가지는 스팸 테이터 집합을 몇 개의 주축으로 차원을 축소 시켜 연차 처리의 부담을 줄이고 특정 집으로 분류를 위한 로지스틱 회귀 분석 방법을 사용하여 스팸 필터링을 하였다. 이를 통하여 속도와 성능 두가지의 성과를 얻을 수 있었다.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.93-99
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• 2023

Background: Effort-reward imbalance (ERI) and overcommitment at work have been associated poorer mental health. However, nonlinear and nonadditive effects have not been investigated previously. Methods: The association between effort, reward, and overcommitment with odds of poorer mental health was examined among a sample of 68 formal United States waste workers (87% male). Traditional, logistic regression and Bayesian Kernel machine regression (BKMR) modeling was conducted. Models controlled for age, education level, race, gender, union status, and physical health status. Results: The traditional, logistic regression found only overcommitment was significantly associated with poorer mental health (IQR increase: OR = 6.7; 95% CI: 1.7 to 25.5) when controlling for effort and reward (or ERI alone). Results from the BKMR showed that a simultaneous IQR increase in higher effort, lower reward, and higher overcommitment was associated with 6.6 (95% CI: 1.7 to 33.4) times significantly higher odds of poorer mental health. An IQR increase in overcommitment was associated with 5.6 (95% CI: 1.6 to 24.9) times significantly higher odds of poorer mental health when controlling for effort and reward. Higher effort and lower reward at work may not always be associated with poorer mental health but rather they may have an inverse, U-shaped relationship with mental health. No interaction between effort, reward, or overcommitment was observed. Conclusion: When taking into the consideration the relationship between effort, reward, and overcommitment, overcommitment may be most indicative of poorer mental health. Organizations should assess their workers' perceptions of overcommitment to target potential areas of improvement to enhance mental health outcomes.