• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian estimate

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Effects of Financial College Tuition Support by Korean Parents using a Hierarchical Bayes Model (계층적 베이즈 모형을 이용한 대학등록금에 대한 부모님의 경제적 지원 영향 분석)

  • Oh, Man-Suk;Oh, Hyun Sook;Oh, Min Jung
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.267-280
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    • 2013
  • College tuition is a significant economic, social, and political issue in Korea. We conduct a Bayesian analysis of a hierarchical model to address the factors related to college tuition based on a survey data collected by Statistics Korea. A binary response variable is selected depending on if more than 70% of tuition costs are supported by parents, and a hierarchical Probit model is constructed with areas as groups. A set of explanatory variables is selected from a factor analysis of available variables in the survey. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used to estimate parameters. From the analysis results, income and stress are significantly related to college tuition support from parents. Parents with high income tend to support children's college tuition and students with parents' financial support tend to be mentally less stressed; subsequently, this shows that the economic status of parents significantly affects the mental health of college students. Gender, a healthy life style, and college satisfaction are not significant factors. Comparing areas in terms of the degrees of correlation between stress/income and tuition support from parents, students in Kangwon-do are the most mentally stressed when parents' support is limited; in addition, the positive correlation between parents support and income is stronger in big cities compared to provincial areas.

OGLE-2019-BLG-0362Lb: A SUPER-JOVIAN-MASS PLANET AROUND A LOW-MASS STAR

  • Chung, Sun-Ju;Yee, Jennifer C.;Udalski, Andrej;Gould, Andrew;Albrow, Michael D.;Jung, Youn Kil;Hwang, Kyu-Ha;Han, Cheongho;Ryu, Yoon-Hyun;Shin, In-Gu;Shvartzvald, Yossi;Zang, Weicheng;Cha, Sang-Mok;Kim, Dong-Jin;Kim, Seung-Lee;Lee, Chung-Uk;Lee, Dong-Joo;Lee, Yongseok;Park, Byeong-Gon;Pogge, Richard W.;Poleski, Radek;Mroz, Przemek;Pietrukowicz, Pawel;Skowron, Jan;Szymanski, Michal K.;Soszynski, Igor;Kozlowski, Szymon;Rybicki, Krzysztof A.;Iwanek, Patryk;Wrona, Marcin;Gromadzki, Mariusz;Ulaczyk, Krzysztof
    • Journal of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.55 no.4
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2022
  • We present the analysis of a planetary microlensing event OGLE-2019-BLG-0362 with a shortduration anomaly (~0.4 days) near the peak of the light curve, which is caused by the resonant caustic. The event has a severe degeneracy with ∆𝜒2 = 0.9 between the close and the wide binary lens models both with planet-host mass ratio q ≃ 0.007. We measure the angular Einstein radius but not the microlens parallax, and thus we perform a Bayesian analysis to estimate the physical parameters of the lens. We find that the OGLE-2019-BLG-0362L system is a super-Jovian-mass planet $M_p=3.26^{+0.83}_{-0.58}M_J $ orbiting an M dwarf $M_h=0.42^{+0.34}_{-0.23}M_{\odot}$ at a distance $D_L=5.83^{+1.04}_{-1.55}kpc$. The projected star-planet separation is ${\alpha}_{\bot}= 2.18^{+0.58}_{-0.72}AU$, which indicates that the planet lies beyond the snow line of the host star.

Allometric equation for estimating aboveground biomass of Acacia-Commiphora forest, southern Ethiopia

  • Wondimagegn Amanuel;Chala Tadesse;Moges Molla;Desalegn Getinet;Zenebe Mekonnen
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.196-206
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    • 2024
  • Background: Most of the biomass equations were developed using sample trees collected mainly from pan-tropical and tropical regions that may over- or underestimate biomass. Site-specific models would improve the accuracy of the biomass estimates and enhance the country's measurement, reporting, and verification activities. The aim of the study is to develop site-specific biomass estimation models and validate and evaluate the existing generic models developed for pan-tropical forest and newly developed allometric models. Total of 140 trees was harvested from each diameter class biomass model development. Data was analyzed using SAS procedures. All relevant statistical tests (normality, multicollinearity, and heteroscedasticity) were performed. Data was transformed to logarithmic functions and multiple linear regression techniques were used to develop model to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB). The root mean square error (RMSE) was used for measuring model bias, precision, and accuracy. The coefficient of determination (R2 and adjusted [adj]-R2), the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Schwarz Bayesian information Criterion was employed to select most appropriate models. Results: For the general total AGB models, adj-R2 ranged from 0.71 to 0.85, and model 9 with diameter at stump height at 10 cm (DSH10), ρ and crown width (CW) as predictor variables, performed best according to RMSE and AIC. For the merchantable stem models, adj-R2 varied from 0.73 to 0.82, and model 8) with combination of ρ, diameter at breast height and height (H), CW and DSH10 as predictor variables, was best in terms of RMSE and AIC. The results showed that a best-fit model for above-ground biomass of tree components was developed. AGBStem = exp {-1.8296 + 0.4814 natural logarithm (Ln) (ρD2H) + 0.1751 Ln (CW) + 0.4059 Ln (DSH30)} AGBBranch = exp {-131.6 + 15.0013 Ln (ρD2H) + 13.176 Ln (CW) + 21.8506 Ln (DSH30)} AGBFoliage = exp {-0.9496 + 0.5282 Ln (DSH30) + 2.3492 Ln (ρ) + 0.4286 Ln (CW)} AGBTotal = exp {-1.8245 + 1.4358 Ln (DSH30) + 1.9921 Ln (ρ) + 0.6154 Ln (CW)} Conclusions: The results demonstrated that the development of local models derived from an appropriate sample of representative species can greatly improve the estimation of total AGB.

Estimation of Environmental Effect and Genetic Parameter on Reproduction Traits for On-farm Test Records (농장검정돈의 번식형질에 미치는 환경효과 및 유전모수의 추정)

  • Jung, D.J.;Kim, B.W.;Roh, S.H.;Kim, H.S.;Moon, W.K.;Kim, H.Y.;Jang, H.G.;Choi, L.S.;Jeon, J.T.;Lee, J.G.
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.33-44
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study was to estimate the genetic parameters and trend of Landrace and Yorkshire pigs, which were raised on private farms from 1999 to 2005 and tested for their reproductive performance by the Korea Animal Improvement Association. Prior to analysis, records without pedigree or having value with larger than±3×standard deviation for the Total number of born were excluded. The effects of breed and environmental factors were estimated with least square method(Harvey, 1979), and estimation of breeding values and genetic parameters were performed on the data of 1’st litter only with GIBBSF90(Misztal, 2001) which was programmed according to Gibbs Sampling method based on Bayesian Inference by Gianola and Fernando(1986), Jensen(1994) and others. Gibbs sampling was performed 50,000 times for each parameter, and the first 5000 samples were regarded as those in burn-in period and thus, excluded for post hoc analysis. Total number of born and total number of accident were statistically significant(p<0.01) for the breed, farrowing year, farrowing season and parity effects, and the number born alive at birth was statistically significantp<(0.01) for the breed, farrowing year, farrowing season and parity effects. No particular trend was observed in the genetic and phenotypic improvement of the total number of born and number born alive at birth before 2001, when the piglet registration system started, but the tendencies of increasing for the total number of born and number born alive and decreasing for the total number of accident were observed since 2001. Somewhat higher heritability estimates of our study seems to be attributed to the situations that first parity records with poor farrowing performances were used in the analyses and it was impossible to obtain accurate reproductive performance due to the absence of criteria for record keeping at the level of individual farms.