• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian Reasoning

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Development of Context Awareness and Service Reasoning Technique for Handicapped Person (장애인을 위한 상황인식 및 서비스 추론기술 개발)

  • Ko, Kwang-Eun;Jang, In-Hoon;Sim, Kwee-Bo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.139-142
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    • 2008
  • 현대 산업의 발전에 따른 사회고령화, 장애인구 증가는 장애인을 위해 특화된 서비스를 제공할 유비쿼터스 컴퓨팅 기술의 개발이 필요함을 나타낸다. 이를 위해 사용자와 유비쿼터스 환경 간의 상호작용이 지원되는 상황인식 서비스 기술 개발이 필요하다. 상황인식 서비스 기술은 미들웨어와 응용서비스 개발로 분류 가능하며, 본 논문은 응용서비스 개발의 차원에서 장애인을 위한 서비스 Activity를 결정하고, 이것을 기반으로 온톨로지가 적용된 상황정보의 모델링을 구현한다. 상황정보 모델을 상황인식을 위한 베이지안 네트워크의 구조학습에 적용하여, 확률 기반 상황 추론이 가능한 상황인식 시스템을 개발한다.

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Synthesis of Machine Knowledge and Fuzzy Post-Adjustment to Design an Intelligent Stock Investment System

  • Lee, Kun-Chang;Kim, Won-Chul
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.145-162
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    • 1992
  • This paper proposes two design principles for expert systems to solve a stock market timing (SMART) problems : machine knowledge and fuzzy post-adjustment, Machine knowledge is derived from past SMART instances by using an inductive learning algorithm. A knowledge-based solution, which can be regarded as a prior SMART strategy, is then obtained on the basis of the machine knowledge. Fuzzy post-adjustment (FPA) refers to a Bayesian-like reasoning, allowing the prior SMART strategy to be revised by the fuzzy evaluation of environmental factors that might effect the SMART strategy. A prototype system, named K-SISS2 (Knowledge-based Stock Investment Support System 2), was implemented using the two design principles and tested for solving the SMART problem that is aimed at choosing the best time to buy or sell stocks. The prototype system worked very well in an actual stock investment situation, illustrating basic ideas and techniques underlying the suggested design principles.

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Automatic Learning of Bayesian Probabilistic Model for Mobile Life Landmark Reasoning (모바일 라이프 특이성 추론을 위한 베이지안 확률 모델의 자동 학습)

  • Hwang, Keum-Sung;Cho, Sung-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2007.10c
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    • pp.362-366
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    • 2007
  • 다양한 기능과 센서를 탑재한 최신 모바일 디바이스는 사용자의 위치, 전화기록, SMS, 사진, 동영상 등 사용자에 관한 다양한 정보를 지속적으로 수집할 수 있기 때문에 개인의 생활을 이해하고 다양한 서비스를 제공할 수 있는 가능성을 가지고 있다. 하지만, 모바일 장치의 성능 제약 및 환경 불확실성으로 인해 아직까지 많은 연구 과제들이 남아 있다. 본 논문에서는 이러한 모바일 환경의 문제를 극복하기 위해 베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 라이프 로그 분석 모델 및 자동 학습 방법을 제안한다. 제안하는 베이지안 네트워크 모델은 모듈화 되어서 계산량은 감소되었으며, 자동 학습 방법을 통해 지속적인 업데이트가 가능하다. 이는 제안하는 방법이 복잡한 확률 모델을 자동으로 분할하는 방법과 분할된 상태에서의 유기적인 추론 방법을 포함하고 있기에 가능하다. 실험에서는 실제 모바일 장치에서 수집된 로그 데이터를 이용하여 제안하는 방법에 의한 실험 결과를 분석하고 분할을 통한 효율성 향상을 논의 한다.

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Classification and Analysis of Data Mining Algorithms (데이터마이닝 알고리즘의 분류 및 분석)

  • Lee, Jung-Won;Kim, Ho-Sook;Choi, Ji-Young;Kim, Hyon-Hee;Yong, Hwan-Seung;Lee, Sang-Ho;Park, Seung-Soo
    • Journal of KIISE:Databases
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.279-300
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    • 2001
  • Data mining plays an important role in knowledge discovery process and usually various existing algorithms are selected for the specific purpose of the mining. Currently, data mining techniques are actively to the statistics, business, electronic commerce, biology, and medical area and currently numerous algorithms are being researched and developed for these applications. However, in a long run, only a few algorithms, which are well-suited to specific applications with excellent performance in large database, will survive. So it is reasonable to focus our effort on those selected algorithms in the future. This paper classifies about 30 existing algorithms into 7 categories - association rule, clustering, neural network, decision tree, genetic algorithm, memory-based reasoning, and bayesian network. First of all, this work analyzes systematic hierarchy and characteristics of algorithms and we present 14 criteria for classifying the algorithms and the results based on this criteria. Finally, we propose the best algorithms among some comparable algorithms with different features and performances. The result of this paper can be used as a guideline for data mining researches as well as field applications of data mining.

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A Clinical Nomogram Construction Method Using Genetic Algorithm and Naive Bayesian Technique (유전자 알고리즘과 나이브 베이지언 기법을 이용한 의료 노모그램 생성 방법)

  • Lee, Keon-Myung;Kim, Won-Jae;Yun, Seok-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.796-801
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    • 2009
  • In medical practice, the diagnosis or prediction models requiring complicated computations are not widely recognized due to difficulty in interpreting the course of reasoning and the complexity of computations. Medical personnel have used the nomograms which are a graphical representation for numerical relationships that enables to easily compute a complicated function without help of computation machines. It has been widely paid attention in diagnosing diseases or predicting the progress of diseases. A nomogram is constructed from a set of clinical data which contain various attributes such as symptoms, lab experiment results, therapy history, progress of diseases or identification of diseases. It is of importance to select effective ones from available attributes, sometimes along with parameters accompanying the attributes. This paper introduces a nomogram construction method that uses a naive Bayesian technique to construct a nomogram as well as a genetic algorithm to select effective attributes and parameters. The proposed method has been applied to the construction of a nomogram for a real clinical data set.

Model selection algorithm in Gaussian process regression for computer experiments

  • Lee, Youngsaeng;Park, Jeong-Soo
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.383-396
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    • 2017
  • The model in our approach assumes that computer responses are a realization of a Gaussian processes superimposed on a regression model called a Gaussian process regression model (GPRM). Selecting a subset of variables or building a good reduced model in classical regression is an important process to identify variables influential to responses and for further analysis such as prediction or classification. One reason to select some variables in the prediction aspect is to prevent the over-fitting or under-fitting to data. The same reasoning and approach can be applicable to GPRM. However, only a few works on the variable selection in GPRM were done. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to build a good prediction model among some GPRMs. It is a post-work of the algorithm that includes the Welch method suggested by previous researchers. The proposed algorithms select some non-zero regression coefficients (${\beta}^{\prime}s$) using forward and backward methods along with the Lasso guided approach. During this process, the fixed were covariance parameters (${\theta}^{\prime}s$) that were pre-selected by the Welch algorithm. We illustrated the superiority of our proposed models over the Welch method and non-selection models using four test functions and one real data example. Future extensions are also discussed.

Operational Availability Improvement through Online Monitoring and Advice For Emergency Diesel Generator

  • Lee, Jong-Beom;Kim, han-Gon;Kim, Byong-Sub;M. Golay;C.W. Kang;Y. Sui
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1998.05a
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    • pp.264-270
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    • 1998
  • This research broadens the prime concern of nuclear power plant operations from safe performance to both economic and safe performance. First emergency diesel generator is identified as one of main contributors for the lost plant availability through the review of plants forced outage records. The framework of an integrated architecture for performing modern on-line condition for operational availability improvement is configured in this work. For the development of the comprehensive sensor networks for complex target systems, an integrated methodology incorporating a structural hierarchy, a functional hierarchy, and a fault-system matrix is formulated. The second part of our research is development of intelligent diagnosis and maintenance advisory system, which employs Bayesian Belief networks (BBNs) as a high level reasoning tool incorporating inherent uncertainty use in probabilistic inference. Our prototype diagnosis algorithms are represented explicitly through topological symbols and links between them in a causal direction. As new evidence from sensor network development is entered into the model especially, our advisory of system provides operational advice concerning both availability and safety, so that the operator is able to determine the likely modes, diagnose the system state, locate root causes, and take the most advantageous action. Thereby, this advice improves operational availability

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Trajectory Recognition and Tracking for Condensation Algorithm and Fuzzy Inference (Condensation 알고리즘과 퍼지 추론을 이용한 이동물체의 궤적인식 및 추적)

  • Kang, Suk-Bum;Yang, Tae-Kyu
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.402-409
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    • 2007
  • In this paper recognized for trajectory using Condensation algorithm. In this pater used fuzzy controller for recognized trajectory using fuzzy reasoning. The fuzzy system tract to the three-dimensional space for raw and roll movement. The joint angle ${\theta}_1$ of the manipulator rotate from $0^{\circ}\;to\;360^{\circ}$, and the joint angle ${\theta}_2$ rotate from $0^{\circ}\;to\;180^{\circ}$. The moving object of velocity display for recognition without error using Condensation algorithm. The tracking system demonstrated the reliability of proposed algorithm through simulation against used trajectory.

Fault Localization for Self-Managing Based on Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크 기반에 자가관리를 위한 결함 지역화)

  • Piao, Shun-Shan;Park, Jeong-Min;Lee, Eun-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.15B no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2008
  • Fault localization plays a significant role in enormous distributed system because it can identify root cause of observed faults automatically, supporting self-managing which remains an open topic in managing and controlling complex distributed systems to improve system reliability. Although many Artificial Intelligent techniques have been introduced in support of fault localization in recent research especially in increasing complex ubiquitous environment, the provided functions such as diagnosis and prediction are limited. In this paper, we propose fault localization for self-managing in performance evaluation in order to improve system reliability via learning and analyzing real-time streams of system performance events. We use probabilistic reasoning functions based on the basic Bayes' rule to provide effective mechanism for managing and evaluating system performance parameters automatically, and hence the system reliability is improved. Moreover, due to large number of considered factors in diverse and complex fault reasoning domains, we develop an efficient method which extracts relevant parameters having high relationships with observing problems and ranks them orderly. The selected node ordering lists will be used in network modeling, and hence improving learning efficiency. Using the approach enables us to diagnose the most probable causal factor with responsibility for the underlying performance problems and predict system situation to avoid potential abnormities via posting treatments or pretreatments respectively. The experimental application of system performance analysis by using the proposed approach and various estimations on efficiency and accuracy show that the availability of the proposed approach in performance evaluation domain is optimistic.

Dynamic Web Recommendation Method Using Hybrid SOM (하이브리드 SOM을 이용한 동적 웹 정보 추천 기법)

  • Yoon, Kyung-Bae;Park, Chang-Hee
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.11B no.4
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    • pp.471-476
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    • 2004
  • Recently, provides information which is most necessary to the user the research against the web information recommendation system for the Internet shopping mall is actively being advanced. the back which it will drive in the object. In that Dynamic Web Recommendation Method Using SOM (Self-Organizing Feature Maps) has the advantages of speedy execution and simplicity but has the weak points such as the lack of explanation on models and fired weight values for each node of the output layer on the established model. The method proposed in this study solves the lack of explanation using the Bayesian reasoning method. It does not give fixed weight values for each node of the output layer. Instead, the distribution includes weight using Hybrid SOM. This study designs and implements Dynamic Web Recommendation Method Using Hybrid SOM. The result of the existing Web Information recommendation methods has proved that this study's method is an excellent solution.