• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bayesian Probability Statistics

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A Study on Effective Identification Method for Influential Main Effects and Interactions in the 2-level Factorial Designs (2-수준 요인실험에서 주효과 및 교호작용에 대한 효율적인 분석방법 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Ik
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.27-33
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    • 2006
  • In this paper, an effective method for identifying influential main effects and interactions in the 2-level factorial designs is suggested by exploiting the resolution V designs developed by Kim(1992). For analysis of such designs, we employ the Bayesian approach for easy and clear identification of influential effects in the half normal probability plot.

Default Bayesian Method for Detecting the Changes in Sequences of Independent Exponential and Poisson Random Variates

  • Jeong, Su-Youn;Son, Young-Sook
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2002
  • Default Bayesian method for detecting the changes in sequences of independent exponential random variates and independent Poisson random variates is considered. Noninformative priors are assumed for all the parameters in both of change models. Default Bayes factors, AIBF, MIBF, FBF, to check whether there is any change or not on each sequence and the posterior probability densities of change at each time point are derived. Theoretical results discussed in this paper are applied to some numerical data.

A Bayesian Variable Selection Method for Binary Response Probit Regression

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.167-182
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    • 1999
  • This article is concerned with the selection of subsets of predictor variables to be included in building the binary response probit regression model. It is based on a Bayesian approach, intended to propose and develop a procedure that uses probabilistic considerations for selecting promising subsets. This procedure reformulates the probit regression setup in a hierarchical normal mixture model by introducing a set of hyperparameters that will be used to identify subset choices. The appropriate posterior probability of each subset of predictor variables is obtained through the Gibbs sampler, which samples indirectly from the multinomial posterior distribution on the set of possible subset choices. Thus, in this procedure, the most promising subset of predictors can be identified as the one with highest posterior probability. To highlight the merit of this procedure a couple of illustrative numerical examples are given.

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Noninformative Priors for the Power Law Process

  • Kim, Dal-Ho;Kang, Sang-Gil;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.17-31
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    • 2002
  • This paper considers noninformative priors for the power law process under failure truncation. Jeffreys'priors as well as reference priors are found when one or both parameters are of interest. These priors are compared in the light of how accurately the coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals match the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. It is found that the reference priors have a definite edge over Jeffreys'prior in this respect.

Nomogram comparison conducted by logistic regression and naïve Bayesian classifier using type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) (제 2형 당뇨병을 이용한 로지스틱과 베이지안 노모그램 구축 및 비교)

  • Park, Jae-Cheol;Kim, Min-Ho;Lee, Jea-Young
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.573-585
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    • 2018
  • In this study, we fit the logistic regression model and naïve Bayesian classifier model using 11 risk factors to predict the incidence rate probability for type 2 diabetes mellitus. We then introduce how to construct a nomogram that can help people visually understand it. We use data from the 2013-2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES). We take 3 interactions in the logistic regression model to improve the quality of the analysis and facilitate the application of the left-aligned method to the Bayesian nomogram. Finally, we compare the two nomograms and examine their utility. Then we verify the nomogram using the ROC curve.

A Bayesian Criterion for a Multiple test of Two Multivariate Normal Populations

  • Kim, Hae-Jung;Son, Young-Sook
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.97-107
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    • 2001
  • A simultaneous test criterion for multiple hypotheses concerning comparison of two multivariate normal populations is considered by using the so called Bayes factor method. Fully parametric frequentist approach for the test is not available and thus Bayesian criterion is pursued using a Bayes factor that eliminates its arbitrariness problem induced by improper priors. Specifically, the fractional Bayes factor (FBF) by O'Hagan (1995) is used to derive the criterion. Necessary theories involved in the derivation an computation of the criterion are provided. Finally, an illustrative simulation study is given to show the properties of the criterion.

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Bayesian Model Selection of Lifetime Models using Fractional Bayes Factor with Type ?$\pm$ Censored Data (제2종 중단모형에서 FRACTIONAL BAYES FACTOR를 이용한 신뢰수명 모형들에 대한 베이지안 모형선택)

  • 강상길;김달호;이우동
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.427-436
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    • 2000
  • In this paper, we consider a Bayesian model selection problem of lifetime distributions using fractional Bayes factor with noninformative prior when type II censored data are given. For a given type II censored data, we calculate the posterior probability of exponential, Weibull and lognormal distributions and select the model which gives the highest posterior probability. Our proposed methodology is explained and applied to real data and simulated data.

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Bayesian Variable Selection in Linear Regression Models with Inequality Constraints on the Coefficients (제한조건이 있는 선형회귀 모형에서의 베이지안 변수선택)

  • 오만숙
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.73-84
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    • 2002
  • Linear regression models with inequality constraints on the coefficients are frequently used in economic models due to sign or order constraints on the coefficients. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to selecting significant explanatory variables in linear regression models with inequality constraints on the coefficients. Bayesian variable selection requires computation of posterior probability of each candidate model. We propose a method which computes all the necessary posterior model probabilities simultaneously. In specific, we obtain posterior samples form the most general model via Gibbs sampling algorithm (Gelfand and Smith, 1990) and compute the posterior probabilities by using the samples. A real example is given to illustrate the method.

Confidence Intervals for a Linear Function of Binomial Proportions Based on a Bayesian Approach (베이지안 접근에 의한 모비율 선형함수의 신뢰구간)

  • Lee, Seung-Chun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.257-266
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    • 2007
  • It is known that Agresti-Coull approach is an effective tool for the construction of confidence intervals for various problems related to binomial proportions. However, the Agrest-Coull approach often produces a conservative confidence interval. In this note, confidence intervals based on a Bayesian approach are proposed for a linear function of independent binomial proportions. It is shown that the Bayesian confidence interval slightly outperforms the confidence interval based on Agresti-Coull approach in average sense.

A Bayesian Approach to Detecting Outliers Using Variance-Inflation Model

  • Lee, Sangjeen;Chung, Younshik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.805-814
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    • 2001
  • The problem of 'outliers', observations which look suspicious in some way, has long been one of the most concern in the statistical structure to experimenters and data analysts. We propose a model for outliers problem and also analyze it in linear regression model using a Bayesian approach with the variance-inflation model. We will use Geweke's(1996) ideas which is based on the data augmentation method for detecting outliers in linear regression model. The advantage of the proposed method is to find a subset of data which is most suspicious in the given model by the posterior probability The sampling based approach can be used to allow the complicated Bayesian computation. Finally, our proposed methodology is applied to a simulated and a real data.

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