• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.139-151
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• 2002

This study is concerned with model selection and diagnostics for nonlinear regression model through Bayes factor. In this paper, we use informative prior and simulate observations from the posterior distribution via Markov chain Monte Carlo. We propose the Laplace approximation method and apply the Laplace-Metropolis estimator to solve the computational difficulty of Bayes factor.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.43-59
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• 1995

This paper presents a method for estimating the population variability distribution of the failure parameter (failure rate or failure probability) for each failure mode considered in PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment). We focus on the utilization of generic estimates from various industry compendia for the estimation. The estimates are complicated statistics of failure data from plants. When the failure data referred in two or more sources are overlapped, dependency occurs among the estimates provided by the sources. This type of problem is first addressed in this paper. We propose methods based on ML-II estimation in Bayesian framework and discuss the characteristics of the proposed estimators. The proposed methods are easy to apply in real field. Numerical examples are also provided.

• Journal of the Korean School Mathematics Society
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.125-141
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• 2010

The aim of this paper is to develop a web-based Virtual Learning System for discrete mathematics learning using CAS (Computer Algebra System), The system contains a series of contents that are common between secondary und university curriculum in discrete mathematics such as sets, relations, matrices, graphs etc. We designed and developed web-based virtual learning contents contained in the proposed system based on Mathematia, webMathematica and phpMath taking advantages of rapid computation and visualization. The virtual learning system for discrete math provides movie lectures and 'practice mode' authored with phpMath in order to enhance conceptual understanding of each movie lesson. In particular, matrix learning is facilitated with conceptual diagram that provides interactive quizzes. Once the quiz results are submitted, Bayesian inference network diagnoses strong and weak parts of learning nodes for generating diagnostic reports to facilitate personalized learning. As part of formative evaluation, the overall responses were collected for future revision of the system with 10 university students.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.267-275
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• 2012

In this study, crack growth in a center-cracked plate is predicted under mode I variable amplitude loading, and the result is validated by experiment. Huang's model is employed to describe crack growth with acceleration and retardation due to the variable loading effect. Experiment is conducted with Al6016-T6 plate, in which the load is applied, and crack length is measured periodically. Particle Filter algorithm, which is based on the Bayesian approach, is used to estimate model parameters from the experimental data, and predict the crack growth of the future in the probabilistic way. The prediction is validated by the run-to-failure results, from which it is observed that the method predicts well the unique behavior of crack retardation and the more data are used, the closer prediction we get to the actual run-to-failure data.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.25 no.6
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• pp.78-104
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• 2021

Purpose - Semiconductors are a significant export item for Korea that is expected to continue to contribute significantly to the Korean economy in the future. Thus, the semiconductor industry is a critical component in the 4th Industrial Revolution and is expected to continue growing as the non-face-to-face economy expands as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this context, this paper aims to empirically investigate how semiconductors are imported and exported in Korea from a global supply chain perspective by analysing import and export data at the micro-level. Design/methodology - This study conducts a multifaceted analysis of the global supply chain for semiconductors and related equipment in Korea by examining semiconductor imports and exports by semiconductor type, year, target country, mode of transportation, airport/port, and domestic region, using import/export micro-data. The visualisation, flow analysis, and Bayesian Network methodologies were used to compensate for the limitations of each method. Findings - Korea is a major exporter of semiconductor memory and has the world's highest competitiveness but is relatively weak in the field of system semiconductors. The trade deficit in 'semiconductor equipment and parts' is clearly growing. As a result, continued investment in 'system semiconductors' and 'semiconductor equipment and parts' technology development is necessary to boost exports and ensure a stable supply chain. Originality/value - Few papers on semiconductor trade in Korea have been published from the perspective of the global supply chain or value chain. This study contributes to the literature in this area by focusing on import and export data for the global supply chain of the Korean semiconductor industry using a variety of approaches. It is our hope that the insights gained from this study will aid in the advancement of SCM research.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.34 no.6_2
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• pp.1179-1192
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• 2018

In order to detect the Antarctic Polar Front (PF) among the main fronts in the Southern Ocean, this study is based on the combinations of satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and height (SSH) observations. For accurate PF detection, we classified the signals as front or non-front grids based on the Bayesian decision theory from daily SST and SSH datasets, and then spatio-temporal synthesis has been performed to remove primary noises and to supplement geographical connectivity of the front grids. In addition, sea ice and coastal masking were employed in order to remove the noise that still remains even after performing the processes and morphology operations. Finally, we selected only the southernmost grids, which can be considered as fronts and determined as the monthly PF by a linear smoothing spline optimization method. The mean positions of PF in this study are very similar to those of the PFs reported by the previous studies, and it is likely to be well represents PF formation along the bottom topography known as one of the major influences of the PF maintenance. The seasonal variation in the positions of PF is high in the Ross Sea sector (${\sim}180^{\circ}W$), and Australia sector ($120^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$), and these variations are quite similar to the previous studies. Therefore, it is expected that the detection approach for the PF position applied in this study and the final composite have a value that can be used in related research to be carried out on the long term time-scale.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.330-335
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• 2011

The mode of inheritance of total milk yield and its genetic parameters were investigated in Churra dairy sheep through segregation analyses using a Monte Carlo Markov Chains (MCMC) method. Data which consisted of 7,126 lactations belonging to 5,154 ewes were collected between 1999 and 2002 from 15 Spanish Churra dairy flocks. A postulated major gene was assumed to be additive and priors used for variance components were uniform. Based on 50 000 Gibbs samples from ten replicates chains of 100,000 cycles, the estimated marginal posterior means${\pm}$posterior standard deviations of variance components of milk yield were $23.17{\pm}18.42$, $65.20{\pm}25.05$, $120.40{\pm}42.12$ and $420.83{\pm}40.26$ for major gene variance ($\sigma_G^2$), polygenic variance ($\sigma_u^2$), permanent environmental variance ($\sigma_{pe}^2$) and error variance ($\sigma_e^2$), respectively. The results of this study showed the postulated major locus was not significant, and the 95% highest posterior density regions ($HPDs_{95%}$) of most major gene parameters included 0, and particularly for the major gene variance. The estimated transmission probabilities for the 95% highest posterior density regions ($HPDs_{95%}$) were overlapped. These results indicated that segregation of a major gene was unlikely and that the mode of inheritance of total milk yield in Churra dairy sheep is purely polygenic. Based on 50,000 Gibbs samples from ten replicates chains of 100,000 cycles, the estimated polygenic heritability and repeatability were $h^2=0.20{\pm}0.05$ and r=$0.34{\pm}0.06$, respectively.

• Korean Journal of Clinical Pharmacy
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• v.23 no.2
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• pp.137-141
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• 2013

Purpose: This study compared the performance of new NONMEM estimation methods using a population analysis dataset collected from a clinical study that consisted of 40 individuals and 567 observations after a single oral dose of glimepiride. Method: The NONMEM 7.2 estimation methods tested were first-order conditional estimation with interaction (FOCEI), importance sampling (IMP), importance sampling assisted by mode a posteriori (IMPMAP), iterative two stage (ITS), stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM), and Markov chain Monte Carlo Bayesian (BAYES) using a two-compartment open model. Results: The parameters estimated by IMP, IMPMAP, ITS, SAEM, and BAYES were similar to those estimated using FOCEI, and the objective function value (OFV) for diagnosing the model criteria was significantly decreased in FOCEI, IMPMAP, SAEM, and BAYES in comparison with IMP. Parameter precision in terms of the estimated standard error was estimated precisely with FOCEI, IMP, IMPMAP, and BAYES. The run time for the model analysis was shortest with BAYES. Conclusion: In conclusion, the new estimation methods in NONMEM 7.2 performed similarly in terms of parameter estimation, but the results in terms of parameter precision and model run times using BAYES were most suitable for analyzing this dataset.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2019.05a
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• pp.390-390
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• 2019

Application of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to the hydrological time series would be an innovative way to identify extreme rainfall events in a series. Even though the optimum number of hidden states can be identify based on maximizing the log-likelihood or minimizing Bayesian information criterion. However, occasionally value for the log-likelihood keep increasing with the state which gives false identification of the optimum hidden state. Therefore, this study attempts to identify optimum number of hidden states for Colombo station, Sri Lanka as fundamental approach to identify frequency and percentage of extreme rainfall events for the station. Colombo station consisted of daily rainfall values between 1961 and 2015. The representative station is located at the wet zone of Sri Lanka where the major rainfall season falls on May to September. Therefore, HMM was ran for the season of May to September between 1961 and 2015. Results showed more or less similar log-likelihood which could be identified as maximum for states between 4 to 7. Therefore, measure of central tendency (i.e. mean, median, mode, standard deviation, variance and auto-correlation) for observed and simulated daily rainfall series was carried to each state to identify optimum state which could give statistically compatible results. Further, the method was applied for the second major rainfall season (i.e. October to February) for the same station as a comparison.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.14 no.7
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• pp.3018-3038
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• 2020

In the stereoscopic or multiview display, the depth video illustrates visual distances between objects and camera. To promote the computational efficiency of depth video encoder, we exploit the intra prediction of depth videos under Versatile Video Coding (VVC) and observe a diverse distribution of intra prediction modes with different coding unit sizes. We propose a hybrid scheme to further boost fast depth video coding. In the first stage, we adaptively predict the HADamard (HAD) costs of intra prediction modes and initialize a candidate list according to the HAD costs. Then, the candidate list is further improved by considering the probability distribution of candidate modes with different CU sizes. Finally, early termination of CU splitting is performed at each CU depth level based on the Bayesian theorem. Our proposed method is incorporated into VVC intra prediction for fast coding of depth videos. Experiments with 7 standard sequences and 4 Quantization parameters (Qps) validate the efficiency of our method.