• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bass 확산

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Parameter estimation of the Diffusion Model for Demand Side Management Monitoring System (DSM Monitoring을 위한 확산 모델의 계수 추정)

  • Choi, Cheong-Hun;Jeong, Hyun-Su;Kim, Jin-O
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.07c
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    • pp.1073-1075
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management Program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to parameters ; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameter, there are no empirical results in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints are empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves of high-efficient lighting and also forecasting of the peak value for power demand considering diffusion of high-efficient lighting, the feedback and least-square parameter estimation method used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and forecasting of the effect of DSM program.

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Analysis and Forecasting of Diffusion of RFID Market in Korea (국내 RFID 시장의 확산 분석 및 예측 모형)

  • Son, Dongmin;Moon, Seonghyeon;Jeong, Bongju
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.415-423
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    • 2014
  • In recent decades, RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification) technology has been recognized as one of the most core competencies in implementing ubiquitous society. However, Korea has not seen good success in diffusion of RFID even though Korean government continues funding many projects to diffuse the technology in industries. Most previous researches overestimate the growth of Korean RFID market in contrary to real market situation. This study aims to analyze the Korean RFID market and find a reasonable forecasting model for it. Our experimental results show that Bass forecasting model provides the more realistic estimates than any other models and the analyses of forecasting error provide useful information for the better forecasting. We also observed that government policy plays a crucial role in the diffusion of RFID technology in Korea.

Habitat characteristics of exotic fish in Korean reservoirs (농업용 저수지 내 외래어종의 분포특성)

  • Son, Minwoo;Byun, Jisun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.512-512
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    • 2016
  • 우리나라의 다양한 수계에서는 배스로 대표되는 외래어종의 유입에 따른 심각한 생태계 교란이 발생하고 있다. 외래어종은 활발한 먹이활동 및 영역다툼을 통해 우리나라 고유종의 섭취 및 경쟁 우위에 위치하고 있다는 것이 많은 보도를 통해 발표되었다. 본 연구에서는 외래어종 중 배스(Large mouth bass)에 초점을 두고 동계 및 춘계의 서식처 특성을 살펴본다. 다양한 수계 중 갇혀있는 시스템으로 간주할 수 있는 농업용 저수지에 초점을 맞추고 현장조사를 실시한다. 하지만 현장조사 중 일부는 강과 같이 열린 서식처 공간도 포함하고 있다. 본 연구는 배스가 동면을 하지 않는 대신 수온에 큰 영향을 받으며 저수온기의 서식활동을 지속한다는 가정 하에 수온과 배스가 활동하는 영역의 상관성을 이해하고자 하였다. 조사는 국내 4개 지점 이상에서 이루어졌으며 수심 20 m 정도의 깊은 저수지에서부터 하수종말처리장에서 처리수가 유입되는 도시형 하천까지 포함한다. 이 중 수심 20 m 정도의 농업용 저수지에서는 7회 이상의 정밀 조사를 수행하여 수심별, 수온별 배스의 서식특성을 이해할 수 있도록 집중조사를 실시하였다. 현장조사 결과 배스는 $1-2^{\circ}C$의 수온차에도 민감하게 반응하며 서식처를 형성한다는 사실을 알 수 있다. 수온의 평면적 분포는 서식처의 형성에 많은 영향을 주는 것으로 판단되며 수온 안정기인 동계의 경우는 수온 종분포에 따라 군락을 형성하며 서식층을 결정한다는 점도 유추된다. 4월 중순 이후의 춘계는 배스의 산란기로 종확산에 큰 영향을 미치는 가장 중요한 시기이다. 이 시기 이후 하계에는 다시 부화한 개체가 독립적으로 서식처를 이동하는 또다른 종확산의 시기이다. 따라서 계절별에 따른 보다 면밀하고 지속적인 조사를 통해 4계절 순환에 따른 배스의 서식 특성 변화를 조사하는 과정이 필수적으로 이루어져야 한다.

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A Study on the Impact of Negativity Bias on Online Spread of Reputation : With a Case Study of Election Campaign (온라인상에서 부정적 편향에 따른 평판 확산 차이에 관한 연구 : 선거 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kim, Na-Ra;Shin, Kyung-Shik
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.263-276
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    • 2015
  • As a social being, people can cooperate and control one another through the power of reputation, which is a critical opinion of someone given by others. Nevertheless, there have been obstacles in clarifying the identity of traditional types of reputation, for they are mostly words of mouth passed among members of a society. However, due to dramatic technological advancement and widespread use of the Internet and social media, now we can clearly see and analyze written reputations, which used to be passed only from mouth to mouth. Against this background, this study examines whether a negativity bias-a notion that an event of a more negative nature has a greater effect on one's psychological state than a positive event-applies to spread of reputation online, and examines related factors and effects. To this end, reputation-related online comments left by social media users during the election period of Korea's 6th provincial election on 4 June 2014 were analyzed. For the analysis, a Bass diffusion model was used, which is based on the innovation diffusion theory. The analysis results confirmed that, at online forum, negative reputations spread more quickly and more widely than positive ones, had a greater impact, and mass media such as online news outlets had a significant influence on spread of reputation online.

Forecasting the Demand for the Substitution of Next Generations of Digital TV Using Choice-Based Diffusion Models (선택기반확산모형을 이용한 디지털 TV 수요예측)

  • Jeong U-Su;Nam Seung-Yong;Kim Hyeong-Jun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.1116-1123
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    • 2006
  • The methodological framework proposed in this paper addresses the strength of the applied Bass model by Mahajan and Muller(1996) that it reflects the substitution of next generations among products. Also this paper is to estimate and analyze the forecast of demand for products that do not exist in the marketplace. We forecast the sales of digital TV using estimated market share and data obtained by the face to face Interview. In this research, we use two methods to analyze the demand for Digital TV that are the forecasting the Demand for the Substitution and binary logit analysis. The logit analysis is to estimate the decisive factor of purchasing digital TV. The decisive factors are composed of purchasing plan, region, gender, TV price, contents, coverage, income, age, and TV program. We apply the model to South Korea's market for digital TV. The results show that (1) Income, region and TV price play a prominent part which is the decisive factor of purchasing digital TV. (2) We forecaste the demand of digital TV that will be demanded about 18 millions TVs in 2015

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A Study on Diffusion of Public Call Centers in Korea (국내 공공기관 콜센터의 확산에 관한 연구)

  • Noh, Ka-Yeon;Shon, Seung-Hee;Jeong, Bong-Ju
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.327-337
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    • 2012
  • The development of information and communication technology affects people's life in social, cultural, and economic aspects. When this happens in public sector, it gives way more benefits than in private sector because of its high accessibility by public. Among the technological public services in Korea, call center service which provides administrative services by telephone and internet had been spotlighted as a new type of communication between people in demand and public service provider. Public call center service is expected to be continuously diffused in years due to its accessibility and convenience for public users. This study analyzes diffusion pattern of public call center service in Korea using Bass model and tries to suggest appropriate diffusion strategies. For practical cases, three most popular public call centers in Korea are analyzed in light of diffusion pattern and operating strategies. Our analyses identify that public call centers in Korea are facing continuous diffusion in two years and there exist certain strategies to efficiently expedite the diffusion.

An Exploratory Study on Forecasting Sales Take-off Timing for Products in Multiple Markets (해외 복수 시장 진출 기업의 제품 매출 이륙 시점 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Jaihak;Chung, Hokyung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.1-29
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    • 2008
  • The objective of our study is to provide an exploratory model for forecasting sales take-off timing of a product in the context of multi-national markets. We evaluated the usefulness of key predictors such as multiple market information, product attributes, price, and sales for the forecasting of sales take-off timing by applying the suggested model to monthly sales data for PDP and LCD TV provided by a Korean electronics manufacturer. We have found some important results for global companies from the empirical analysis. Firstly, innovation coefficients obtained from sales data of a particular product in other markets can provide the most useful information on sales take-off timing of the product in a target market. However, imitation coefficients obtained from the sales data of a particular product in the target market and other markets are not useful for sales take-off timing of the product in the target market. Secondly, price and product attributes significantly influence on take-off timing. It is noteworthy that the ratio of the price of the target product to the average price of the market is more important than the price ofthe target product itself. Lastly, the cumulative sales of the product are still useful for the prediction of sales take-off timing. Our model outperformed the average model in terms of hit-rate.

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An Expert System for the Estimation of the Growth Curve Parameters of New Markets (신규시장 성장모형의 모수 추정을 위한 전문가 시스템)

  • Lee, Dongwon;Jung, Yeojin;Jung, Jaekwon;Park, Dohyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2015
  • Demand forecasting is the activity of estimating the quantity of a product or service that consumers will purchase for a certain period of time. Developing precise forecasting models are considered important since corporates can make strategic decisions on new markets based on future demand estimated by the models. Many studies have developed market growth curve models, such as Bass, Logistic, Gompertz models, which estimate future demand when a market is in its early stage. Among the models, Bass model, which explains the demand from two types of adopters, innovators and imitators, has been widely used in forecasting. Such models require sufficient demand observations to ensure qualified results. In the beginning of a new market, however, observations are not sufficient for the models to precisely estimate the market's future demand. For this reason, as an alternative, demands guessed from those of most adjacent markets are often used as references in such cases. Reference markets can be those whose products are developed with the same categorical technologies. A market's demand may be expected to have the similar pattern with that of a reference market in case the adoption pattern of a product in the market is determined mainly by the technology related to the product. However, such processes may not always ensure pleasing results because the similarity between markets depends on intuition and/or experience. There are two major drawbacks that human experts cannot effectively handle in this approach. One is the abundance of candidate reference markets to consider, and the other is the difficulty in calculating the similarity between markets. First, there can be too many markets to consider in selecting reference markets. Mostly, markets in the same category in an industrial hierarchy can be reference markets because they are usually based on the similar technologies. However, markets can be classified into different categories even if they are based on the same generic technologies. Therefore, markets in other categories also need to be considered as potential candidates. Next, even domain experts cannot consistently calculate the similarity between markets with their own qualitative standards. The inconsistency implies missing adjacent reference markets, which may lead to the imprecise estimation of future demand. Even though there are no missing reference markets, the new market's parameters can be hardly estimated from the reference markets without quantitative standards. For this reason, this study proposes a case-based expert system that helps experts overcome the drawbacks in discovering referential markets. First, this study proposes the use of Euclidean distance measure to calculate the similarity between markets. Based on their similarities, markets are grouped into clusters. Then, missing markets with the characteristics of the cluster are searched for. Potential candidate reference markets are extracted and recommended to users. After the iteration of these steps, definite reference markets are determined according to the user's selection among those candidates. Then, finally, the new market's parameters are estimated from the reference markets. For this procedure, two techniques are used in the model. One is clustering data mining technique, and the other content-based filtering of recommender systems. The proposed system implemented with those techniques can determine the most adjacent markets based on whether a user accepts candidate markets. Experiments were conducted to validate the usefulness of the system with five ICT experts involved. In the experiments, the experts were given the list of 16 ICT markets whose parameters to be estimated. For each of the markets, the experts estimated its parameters of growth curve models with intuition at first, and then with the system. The comparison of the experiments results show that the estimated parameters are closer when they use the system in comparison with the results when they guessed them without the system.

Development of A Model for Estimating ITS Market Size in Korea (지능형교통체계(ITS)의 시장예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • 배상훈
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.21-33
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    • 2001
  • Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) was first introduced in Korea early 1990's, and Korean government has put a lot of efforts for flourishing it in the entire nation. Regardless of these efforts, private participation is not active enough to accelerate ITS implementation in Korea. Expert group made every endeavor to analyze the current situation, and found out some phenomena. It may be summarized as two folds. Firstly, private sector has a lack of confidence on the future ITS market. Budget in the strategic plan is the only publication and guide that private sector can refer to, and it merely indicates deployment costs. Secondly, direction and procedure of R&D are not well defined. It implies that private sector takes too much risk when they invest for R&D. This research, therefore, focuses on the first issues. Concretely, the goal of the project was to establish and analyze the model for estimation the future ITS market side. Author reviewed both quantitative and qualitative models, and concluded that diffusion model in qualitative model was suitable for ITS market estimation. According to model calibration. it is estimated that 14 trillion Won was the market size in 2020 under normal condition. Impact of this result may seduce Information Technology(IT) related private companies into ITS market. Although this research couldn't cover various topics, it nay dedicate in boosting ITS in Korea. Also, it will be a good starting point for further study for the advancement of ITS.

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Assessment of Public Awareness on Invasive Alien Species of Freshwater Ecosystem Using Conservation Culturomics (보전문화체학 접근방식을 통한 생태계교란 생물인 담수 외래종의 대중인식 평가)

  • Park, Woong-Bae;Do, Yuno
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.364-371
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    • 2021
  • Public awareness of alien species can vary by generation, period, or specific events associated with these species. An understanding of public awareness is important for the management of alien species because differences in public awareness can affect the establishment and implementation of management plans. We analyzed digital texts on social media platforms, news articles, and internet search volumes used in conservation culturomics to understand public interest and sentiment regarding alien freshwater species. The number of tweets, number of news articles, and relative search volume to 11 freshwater alien species were extracted to determine public interest. Additionally, the trend over time, seasonal variability, and repetition period of these data were confirmed. We also calculated the sentiment score and analyzed public sentiment in the collected data using sentiment analysis based on text mining techniques. The American bullfrog, nutria, bluegill, and largemouth bass drew relatively more public interest than other species. Some species showed repeated patterns in the number of Twitter posts, media coverage, and internet searches found according to the specified periods. The text mining analysis results showed negative sentiments from most people regarding alien freshwater species. Particularly, negative sentiments increased over the years after alien species were designated as ecologically disturbing species.