• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.312-319
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• 2013

Our understanding of the sensitivities of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide, temperature, and water is limited, which makes it difficult to fully utilize crop models in assessing the impact of climate change on future agricultural production. Genetic coefficients of CERES-Barley model for major domestic cultivars in South Korea (Olbori at Suwon, Albori at Milyang, Saessalbori at Iksan, and Samdobori at Jinju) were estimated from the observed data for daily weather and field trials for more than 10 years by using GenCalc in DSSAT. Data from 1997-2002 annual crop status report (Rural Development Administration, RDA) were used to validate the crop coefficients. The sitecalibrated CERES-Barley model was used to perform crop growth simulation with the 99 treatments of step change combinations in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration with respect to the baseline climate (1981-2010) at four sites. The upper boundary corresponds to the 2071-2100 climate outlook from the RCP 8.5 scenario. The response surface of grain yield showed a distinct pattern of model behavior under the combined change in environmental variables. The simulated grain yield was most sensitive to $CO_2$ concentration, least sensitive to precipitation, and showing a variable response to temperature depending on cultivar. The emulated impacts of response surfaces are expected to facilitate assessment of projected climate impacts on a given cultivar in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.567-578
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• 2022

Various social and environmental problems have recently emerged due to global climate change. In South Korea, coniferous forests in the highlands are decreasing due to climate change whereas the distribution of subtropical species is gradually increasing. This study aims to respond to changes in the distribution of forest species in South Korea due to climate change. This study predicts changes in future suitable areas for Pinus koraiensis, Cryptomeria japonica, and Chamaecyparis obtusa cultivated as timber species based on climate, topography, and environment. Appearance coordinates were collected only for natural forests in consideration of climate suitability in the National Forest Inventory. Future climate data used the SSP scenario by KMA. Species distribution models were ensembled to predict future suitable habitat areas for the base year(2000-2019), near future(2041-2060), and distant future(2081-2100). In the baseline period, the highly suitable habitat for Pinus koraiensis accounted for approximately 13.87% of the country. However, in the distant future(2081-2100), it decreased to approximately 0.11% under SSP5-8.5. For Cryptomeria japonica, the habitat for the base year was approximately 7.08%. It increased to approximately 18.21% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. In the case of Chamaecyparis obtusa, the habitat for the base year was approximately 19.32%. It increased to approximately 90.93% under SSP5-8.5 in the distant future. Pinus koraiensis, which had been planted nationwide, gradually moved north due to climate change with suitable habitats in South Korea decreased significantly. After the near future, Pinus koraiensis was not suitable for the afforestation as timber species in South Korea. Chamaecyparis obtusa can be replaced in most areas. In the case of Cryptomeria japonica, it was assessed that it could replace part of the south and central region.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.32 no.5
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• pp.318-337
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• 2023

This study utilizes system dynamics to examine the effects of fine dust reduction policies on PM10 concentration and health. System dynamics has the advantage of modeling the dynamic and circular relationship between PM₁₀ emission sources, reduction policies, PM₁₀ concentration, and health effect. The study created policy scenarios for Korea's representative fine dust reduction policies - industrial PM₁₀ emission control, diesel vehicle regulation, expansion of electric vehicles, and expansion of parks and green areas - and compared the results with the 2030 baseline if the current trend is maintained. The analysis showed that the policy of supporting electric vehicles reduced PM₁₀ concentration by 0.21 ㎍/m³ and reduced the number of people with circulatory diseases by 494, and the effect was evenly distributed across the country. The industrial emissions regulation scenario resulted in the highest PM₁₀ concentration reduction of 0.22 ㎍/m³, but had a lower reduction in the number of people affected (358) than the EV support strategy, which could be attributed to the fact that this policy had a particularly high PM₁₀ reduction effect in industrial areas such as Danyang-gun, Chungcheongbuk-do, and Sahagu, Busan. As a policy implication, this study suggests that it is necessary to apply fine dust policies tailored to the characteristics of local emission sources.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.1
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• pp.33-50
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• 2009

The impact on hydrologic components considering future potential climate, land use change and vegetation cover information was assessed using SLURP (Semi-distributed Land-Use Runoff Process) continuous hydrologic model. The model was calibrated (1999 - 2000) and validated (2001 - 2002) for the upstream watershed ($260.4\;km^2$) of Gyeongancheon water level gauging station with the coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranging from 0.77 to 0.60 and 0.79 to 0.60, respectively. Two GCMs (MIROC3.2hires, ECHAM5-OM) future weather data of high (A2), middle (A1B) and low (B1) emission scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) were adopted and the data was corrected by 20C3M (20th Century Climate Coupled Model) and downscaled by Change Factor (CF) method using 30 years (1977 - 2006, baseline period) weather data. Three periods data of 2010 - 2039 (2020s), 2040 - 2069 (2050s), 2070 - 2099 (2080s) were prepared. To reduce the uncertainty of land surface conditions, future land use and vegetation canopy prediction were tried by CA-Markov technique and NOAA NDVI-Temperature relationship respectively. MIROC3.2 hires and ECHAM5-OM showed increase tendency in annual streamflow up to 21.4 % for 2080 A1B and 8.9 % for 2050 A1B scenario respectively. The portion of future predicted ET about precipitation increased up to 3 % in MIROC3.2 hires and 16 % in ECHAM5-OM respectively. The future soil moisture content slightly increased compared to 2002 soil moisture.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.2_2
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• pp.351-363
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• 2020

It is well known that alluvial sediment located in coastal region has been easily affected by geohazard like ground subsidence, marine or meteorological disasters which threaten invaluable lives and properties. The subsidence is a sinking of the ground due to underground material movement that mostly related to soil compaction by water extraction. Thus, continuous monitoring is essential to protect possible damage from the ground subsidence in the coastal region. Radar interferometric application has been widely used to estimate surface displacement from phase information of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Thanks to advanced SAR technique like the Small BAseline Subset (SBAS), a time-series of surface displacement could be successfully calculated with a large amount of SAR observations (>20). Because the ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 L-band observations maintain higher coherence compared with other shorter wavelength like X- or C-band, it has been regarded as one of the best resources for Earth science. However, the number of ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 observations might be not enough for the SBAS application due to its global monitoring observation scenario. Unfortunately, the number of the ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 Stripmap images in area of our interest, Busan which located in the Southeastern Korea, is only 11 which is insufficient to apply the SBAS time-series analysis. Although it is common that the radar interferometry utilizes multiple SAR images collected from same acquisition mode, it has been reported that the ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 Stripmap-ScanSAR interferometric application could be possible under specific acquisition mode. In case that we can apply the Stripmap-ScanSAR interferometry with the other 18 ScanSAR observations over Busan, an enhanced time-series surface displacement with better temporal resolution could be estimated. In this study, we evaluated feasibility of the ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 Stripmap-ScanSAR interferometric application using Gamma software considering differences of chirp bandwidth and pulse repetition frequency (PRF) between two acquisition modes. In addition, we analyzed the interferograms with respect to spectral shift of radar carrier frequency and common band filtering. Even though it shows similar level of coherence regardless of spectral shift in the radar carrier frequency, we found periodic spectral noises in azimuth direction and significant degradation of coherence in azimuth direction after common band filtering. Therefore, the characteristics of spectral bandwidth in the range and azimuth direction should be considered cautiously for the ALOS-2 PALSAR-2 Stripmap-ScanSAR interferometry.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.14 no.4
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• pp.207-221
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• 2012

Air temperature in Korea has increased by $1.5^{\circ}C$ over the last 100 years, which is nearly twice the global average rate during the same period. Moreover, it is projected that such change in temperature will continue in the 21st century. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impacts of future climate change on the rice production and adaptation methods in Korea. Climate data for the baseline (1971~2000) and the three future climate (2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100) at fifty six sites in South Korea under IPCC SRES A1B scenario were used as the input to the rice crop model ORYZA2000. Six experimental schemes were carried out to evaluate the combined effects of climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, and cropping season on rice production. We found that the average production in 2071~2100 would decrease by 23%, 27%, and 29% for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were fixed. In contrast, predicted yield reduction was ~0%, 6%, and 7%, for early, middle, and middle-late rice maturing type, respectively, when cropping seasons were changed. Analysis of variation suggested that climatic warming, $CO_2$ fertilization, cropping season, and rice maturing type contributed 60, 10, 12, and 2% of rice yield, respectively. In addition, regression analysis suggested 14~46 and 53~86% of variations in rice yield were explained by grain number and filled grain ratio, respectively, when cropping season was fixed. On the other hand, 46~78 and 22~53% of variations were explained respectively with changing cropping season. It was projected that sterility caused by high temperature would have no effect on rice yield. As a result, rice yield reduction in the future climate in Korea would resulted from low filled grain ratio due to high growing temperature during grain-filling period because the $CO_2$ fertilization was insufficient to negate the negative effect of climatic warming. However, adjusting cropping seasons to future climate change may alleviate the rice production reduction by minimizing negative effect of climatic warming without altering positive effect of $CO_2$ fertilization, which improves weather condition during the grain-filling period.