• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.176-184
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• 2011

Cold air on sloping surfaces flows down to the valley bottom in mountainous terrain at calm and clear nights. Based on the assumption that the cold air flow may be the same as the water flow, current models estimate temperature drop by regarding the cold air accumulation at a given location as the water-like free drainage. At a closed catchment whose outlet is blocked by man-made obstacles such as banks and roads, however, the water-like free drainage assumption is no longer valid because the cold air accumulates from the bottom first. We developed an empirical model to estimate quantitatively the effect of cold pool on nocturnal temperature in a closed catchment. In our model, a closed catchment is treated like a "vessel", and a digital elevation model (DEM) was used to calculate the maximum capacity of the cold pool formed in a closed catchment. We introduce a topographical variable named "shape factor", which is the ratio of the cold air accumulation potential across the whole catchment area to the maximum capacity of the cold pool to describe the relative size of temperature drop at a wider range of catchment shapes. The shape factor is then used to simulate the density profile of cold pool formed in a given catchment based on a hypsometric equation. The cold lake module was incorporated with the existing model (i.e., Chung et al., 2006), generating a new model and predicting distribution of minimum temperature over closed catchments. We applied this model to Akyang valley (i.e., a typical closed catchment of 53 $km^2$ area) in the southern skirt of Mt. Jiri National Park where 12 automated weather stations (AWS) are operational. The performance of the model was evaluated based on the feasibility of delineating the temperature pattern accurately at cold pool forming at night. Overall, the model's ability of simulating the spatial pattern of lower temperature were improved especially at the valley bottom, showing a similar pattern of the estimated temperature with that of thermal images obtained across the valley at dawn (0520 to 0600 local standard time) of 17 May 2011. Error in temperature estimation, calculated with the root mean square error using the 10 low-lying AWSs, was substantially decreased from $1.30^{\circ}C$ with the existing model to $0.71^{\circ}C$ with the new model. These results suggest the feasibility of the new method in predicting the site-specific freeze and frost warning at a closed catchment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.59-77
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• 2012

This study focuses on predicting which firms will increase capital by issuing new stocks in the near future. Many stakeholders, including banks, credit rating agencies and investors, performs a variety of analyses for firms' growth, profitability, stability, activity, productivity, etc., and regularly report the firms' financial analysis indices. In the paper, we develop predictive models for rights issues using these financial analysis indices and data mining techniques. This study approaches to building the predictive models from the perspective of two different analyses. The first is the analysis period. We divide the analysis period into before and after the IMF financial crisis, and examine whether there is the difference between the two periods. The second is the prediction time. In order to predict when firms increase capital by issuing new stocks, the prediction time is categorized as one year, two years and three years later. Therefore Total six prediction models are developed and analyzed. In this paper, we employ the decision tree technique to build the prediction models for rights issues. The decision tree is the most widely used prediction method which builds decision trees to label or categorize cases into a set of known classes. In contrast to neural networks, logistic regression and SVM, decision tree techniques are well suited for high-dimensional applications and have strong explanation capabilities. There are well-known decision tree induction algorithms such as CHAID, CART, QUEST, C5.0, etc. Among them, we use C5.0 algorithm which is the most recently developed algorithm and yields performance better than other algorithms. We obtained data for the rights issue and financial analysis from TS2000 of Korea Listed Companies Association. A record of financial analysis data is consisted of 89 variables which include 9 growth indices, 30 profitability indices, 23 stability indices, 6 activity indices and 8 productivity indices. For the model building and test, we used 10,925 financial analysis data of total 658 listed firms. PASW Modeler 13 was used to build C5.0 decision trees for the six prediction models. Total 84 variables among financial analysis data are selected as the input variables of each model, and the rights issue status (issued or not issued) is defined as the output variable. To develop prediction models using C5.0 node (Node Options: Output type = Rule set, Use boosting = false, Cross-validate = false, Mode = Simple, Favor = Generality), we used 60% of data for model building and 40% of data for model test. The results of experimental analysis show that the prediction accuracies of data after the IMF financial crisis (59.04% to 60.43%) are about 10 percent higher than ones before IMF financial crisis (68.78% to 71.41%). These results indicate that since the IMF financial crisis, the reliability of financial analysis indices has increased and the firm intention of rights issue has been more obvious. The experiment results also show that the stability-related indices have a major impact on conducting rights issue in the case of short-term prediction. On the other hand, the long-term prediction of conducting rights issue is affected by financial analysis indices on profitability, stability, activity and productivity. All the prediction models include the industry code as one of significant variables. This means that companies in different types of industries show their different types of patterns for rights issue. We conclude that it is desirable for stakeholders to take into account stability-related indices and more various financial analysis indices for short-term prediction and long-term prediction, respectively. The current study has several limitations. First, we need to compare the differences in accuracy by using different data mining techniques such as neural networks, logistic regression and SVM. Second, we are required to develop and to evaluate new prediction models including variables which research in the theory of capital structure has mentioned about the relevance to rights issue.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.71-84
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• 2013

Log data, which record the multitude of information created when operating computer systems, are utilized in many processes, from carrying out computer system inspection and process optimization to providing customized user optimization. In this paper, we propose a MongoDB-based unstructured log processing system in a cloud environment for processing the massive amount of log data of banks. Most of the log data generated during banking operations come from handling a client's business. Therefore, in order to gather, store, categorize, and analyze the log data generated while processing the client's business, a separate log data processing system needs to be established. However, the realization of flexible storage expansion functions for processing a massive amount of unstructured log data and executing a considerable number of functions to categorize and analyze the stored unstructured log data is difficult in existing computer environments. Thus, in this study, we use cloud computing technology to realize a cloud-based log data processing system for processing unstructured log data that are difficult to process using the existing computing infrastructure's analysis tools and management system. The proposed system uses the IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service) cloud environment to provide a flexible expansion of computing resources and includes the ability to flexibly expand resources such as storage space and memory under conditions such as extended storage or rapid increase in log data. Moreover, to overcome the processing limits of the existing analysis tool when a real-time analysis of the aggregated unstructured log data is required, the proposed system includes a Hadoop-based analysis module for quick and reliable parallel-distributed processing of the massive amount of log data. Furthermore, because the HDFS (Hadoop Distributed File System) stores data by generating copies of the block units of the aggregated log data, the proposed system offers automatic restore functions for the system to continually operate after it recovers from a malfunction. Finally, by establishing a distributed database using the NoSQL-based Mongo DB, the proposed system provides methods of effectively processing unstructured log data. Relational databases such as the MySQL databases have complex schemas that are inappropriate for processing unstructured log data. Further, strict schemas like those of relational databases cannot expand nodes in the case wherein the stored data are distributed to various nodes when the amount of data rapidly increases. NoSQL does not provide the complex computations that relational databases may provide but can easily expand the database through node dispersion when the amount of data increases rapidly; it is a non-relational database with an appropriate structure for processing unstructured data. The data models of the NoSQL are usually classified as Key-Value, column-oriented, and document-oriented types. Of these, the representative document-oriented data model, MongoDB, which has a free schema structure, is used in the proposed system. MongoDB is introduced to the proposed system because it makes it easy to process unstructured log data through a flexible schema structure, facilitates flexible node expansion when the amount of data is rapidly increasing, and provides an Auto-Sharding function that automatically expands storage. The proposed system is composed of a log collector module, a log graph generator module, a MongoDB module, a Hadoop-based analysis module, and a MySQL module. When the log data generated over the entire client business process of each bank are sent to the cloud server, the log collector module collects and classifies data according to the type of log data and distributes it to the MongoDB module and the MySQL module. The log graph generator module generates the results of the log analysis of the MongoDB module, Hadoop-based analysis module, and the MySQL module per analysis time and type of the aggregated log data, and provides them to the user through a web interface. Log data that require a real-time log data analysis are stored in the MySQL module and provided real-time by the log graph generator module. The aggregated log data per unit time are stored in the MongoDB module and plotted in a graph according to the user's various analysis conditions. The aggregated log data in the MongoDB module are parallel-distributed and processed by the Hadoop-based analysis module. A comparative evaluation is carried out against a log data processing system that uses only MySQL for inserting log data and estimating query performance; this evaluation proves the proposed system's superiority. Moreover, an optimal chunk size is confirmed through the log data insert performance evaluation of MongoDB for various chunk sizes.