• Title/Summary/Keyword: Bankruptcy factors

Search Result 54, Processing Time 0.024 seconds

Capital Structure and Its Determinants: Evidence from Vietnam

  • NGUYEN, Tan Gia;NGUYEN, Lan;NGUYEN, Tuan Duc
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.8 no.10
    • /
    • pp.1-10
    • /
    • 2021
  • This paper attempts to investigate the determinants of capital structure of Vietnamese firms and also shed light on some of the factors of the modern theory of capital structure which is relevant for explaining the capital structure in advanced countries which are also relevant in the context of Vietnam. Using panel data from more than 1000 Vietnamese listed enterprises census 2017-2020, the paper finds that leverage ratio of Vietnamese firms is significantly related to probability. The firms have high level of fixed assets which they use as collateral, resulting in higher debt ratio, which is in line with the pecking order theory. The result also confirm that highly targeted debt ratio is positively correlated with the industry characteristics (using real estate firms as a benchmark), in which firm operates. Furthermore, consistent with the trade-off hypothesis, the leverage ratio is positively affected by non - debt tax shield. The result confirms that a large number of companies are state - owned, will have an insignificant impact of firm's size (as reverse proxy for bankruptcy cost) on leverage ratio. We also find that there is no distinction between state-owned enterprises and private enterprises due to strict adherence to the rules set by the Vietnamese government. Distinct from other countries, corporate income tax has slight impact on capital structure in Vietnamese firms.

Reliable and Advanced Predictors for Corporate Financial Choices in Pakistan

  • SHAHZAD, Umeair;FUKAI, Luo;MAHMOOD, Faisal;JING, Liu;AHMED, Zahoor
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
    • /
    • v.7 no.7
    • /
    • pp.73-84
    • /
    • 2020
  • Existing studies disagree over the core predictors of firm-level financial choices in developing countries. The general practice only validates the traditional capital structure model, which leads to inconsistency and a lack of novelty. This study removed overfitting issues among existing factors and presented the most reliable and advanced capital structure model in Pakistani firms. The panel data include 368 Pakistani companies from 19 non-financial sectors over the period 2004 to 2017. We apply Akaike and Bayesian Information Criteria to remove overfitting issues among inconsistent proxies in the capital structure model. The fixed effects regression is used for basic results and the Generalized Method of Moments is applied to control the endogeneity. Besides the conventional proxies, we report that credit rating, distance from bankruptcy, managerial concentration, and institutional quality are the most advanced capital structure determinants in Pakistan. These predictors remain significant across firm size and growth levels. Also, the findings confirm that new predictors are reliable to define capital structure dynamics and improve the speed of adjustment in overall and sub-sample analysis. The major findings suggest that managers and policymakers should consider these advanced predictors to design their financial settings in firms.

A Decision Support System for Small & Medium Construction Companies (SMCCs) at the early stages of international projects

  • Park, Chan Young;Jang, Woosik;Hwang, Geunouk;Lee, Kang-Wook;Han, Seung Heon
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
    • /
    • 2015.10a
    • /
    • pp.213-216
    • /
    • 2015
  • Despite the significant increase of Korean contractors in the international construction market, many SMCCs (Small & Medium Construction Companies) have suffered in the global financial crisis, and some of them have been kicked out of the international market after experiencing huge losses on projects. SMCCs face obstacles in the international market, such as an insufficient ability to gather information and inappropriate management of associated risks, which lead to difficulties in establishing effective business strategies. In other words, making immature decisions without an effective business strategy may cause not only the failure of one project but also the bankruptcy of the SMCC. To overcome this, the research presented herein aims to propose a decision support system for SMCCs, which would screen projects and make a go/no-go decision at the early stages of international projects. The proposed system comprises a double axis: (1) a profit prediction model, which evaluates 10 project properties using an objective methodology based on a historical project performance database and roughly suggests expected profit rate, and (2) a feasibility assessment model, which evaluates 17 project environment factors in a subjective and quantitative methodology based on experience and supervision. Finally, a web-based system is established to enhance the practical usability, which is expected to be a good reference for inexperienced SMCCs to make proper decisions and establish effective business strategies.

  • PDF

A Study on the Sustainability of New SMEs through the Analysis of Altman Z-Score: Focusing on New and Renewable Energy Industry in Korea (알트만 Z-스코어를 이용한 신생 중소기업의 지속가능성 분석: 신재생에너지산업을 중심으로)

  • Oh, Nak-Kyo;Yoon, Sung-Soo;Park, Won-Koo
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.185-220
    • /
    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study is to get a whole picture of financial conditions of the new and renewable energy sector which have been growing rapidly and predict bankruptcy risk quantitatively. There have been many researches on the methodologies for company failure prediction, such as financial ratios as predictors of failure, analysis of corporate governance, risk factors and survival analysis, and others. The research method for this study is Altman Z-score which has been widely used in the world. Data Set was composed of 121 companies with financial statements from KIS-Value. Covering period for the analysis of the data set is from the year 2006 to 2011. As a result of this study, we found that 38 percent of the data set belongs to "Distress" Zone (on alert) while 38% (on watch), summed into 76%, whose level could be interpreted to doubt about the sustainability. The average of the SMEs in wind energy sector was worse than that of SMEs in solar energy sector. And the average of the SMEs in the "Distress" Zone (on alert) was worse than that of the companies of large group in the "Distress" Zone (on alert). In conclusion, Altman Z-score was well proved to be effective for New & Renewable Energy Industry in Korea as a result of this study. The importance of this study lies on the result to demonstrate empirically that the majority of solar and wind enterprises are facing the risk of bankruptcy. And it is also meaningful to have studied the relationship between SMEs and large companies in addition to advancing research on new start-up companies.

Study on Poverty of the Middle Aged Men Living in Chokbang Area (쪽방거주 중고령 남성의 빈곤 사례연구)

  • Kim, Dong-Seon;Mo, Seon-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
    • /
    • v.20 no.5
    • /
    • pp.222-235
    • /
    • 2020
  • This study examines the poverty progress and its factors which drove the lives of the middle-aged men in Chokbang area. The observed examples are the retired government officials and the self-employed who have been classified as the ones in the economically-middle class but currently as the welfare recipients. According to the results of in-depth interview and observation, the poverty of the observed has undergone the progress of trigger, worsening, breakup, desperation and stabilizing stages. The poverty factors found in this study could be categorized into two factors; circumstantial factors(bankruptcy after IMF, debt guarantee for relatives) and inner factors(the participants' behavior and characteristics). The circumstantial factors worked mainly in the trigger stage and the inner factors contributed to worsening economic crisis and facilitating the progress. According to the result, this study suggests not only individual-scale measures such as encouragement of familial bond or medical treatment of the alcoholism but also social measures including proper regulation of shark loan and opportunity supply to exit from poverty.

Factors Affecting the Financial Structure of Hospitals in Korea (병원의 재무구조에 영향을 미치는 요인)

  • 최만규;문옥륜;황인경
    • Health Policy and Management
    • /
    • v.12 no.2
    • /
    • pp.43-75
    • /
    • 2002
  • This study focuses on the factors that make the financial structure of hospitals in Korea different, and on recommended courses of action that could be very helpful to hospitals in maintaining a sound financial structure. Data used in this study were collected from 132 hospitals with complete general data of present conditions as well as financial statements. They were chosen from the 174 hospitals that passed the standardization audit undertaken by the Korean Hospital Association from 1996 to 2000 for the purpose of accrediting training hospitals. The dependent variable in this study is financial structure. It consists of liabilities as against total assets (total liabilities to total assets, short-term liabilities to total assets, long-term liabilities to total assets, short-term borrowings to total assets, long-term borrowings to total assets). The independent variables are ownership type, hospital type, location, whether or not a representative is a director of the hospital, the possibility of changing a hospital director, bed size, period of establishment, asset structure, profitability, growth, tax shields, business risk, competition. The factors that appear to have the strongest impact on the liabilities to total assets of all the hospitals sampled are ownership type, hospital type, profitability, tax shields, and business risk. It was found that not-for-profit private hospitals and for-profit private hospitals have more liabilities than public hospitals, and tertiary medical institutions have less liabilities than the secondary general hospitals. Moreover, hospitals earning more at the expense of high business risk have a distinct tendency to lower liabilities. Concerning the current ratio, it was found that factors such as ownership type, hospital type, period of establishment, asset structure, and business risk are the more significant variables. The current ratio of public hospitals is higher than that of both not-for-profit private hospitals and for-profit private hospitals, and the current ratio of tertiary medical institutions is higher than that of general hospitals. As business risk is higher in hospitals compared to other businesses, the current ratio becomes higher; this is because it is assumed that for fear of bankruptcy, hospitals lessen liabilities to total assets. On the other hand, as hospitals become older, the fixed assets to total assets become lower. It is remarkable that in hospitals, the factors affecting liabilities to total assets have an opposite regression coefficient sign against factors affecting current ratio. It brings out the same results borne out by the old financial theories and researches, in which a lot of the liabilities of hospitals are considered as the cause of worsening liquidity. Therefore, it is very important for hospitals to maintain a sound financial structure in order to survive using the rational acquisition and maintenance of capital.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-32
    • /
    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Analyzing Relationships between Stock Prices and Business Performances of Construction Companies (건설기업의 주식가격과 경영성과와의 상관관계 분석)

  • Kim Hee-Joon;Kim Myung-Sun;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
    • /
    • v.4 no.3 s.15
    • /
    • pp.76-84
    • /
    • 2003
  • The bankruptcy possibility of construction firms have been higher by the environment of current construction industry. Thus, converting management environment for growth into that for value or profit is required. Nowadays, funds of construction firms is almost provided by financial institutions. As the firms' size grow, they have a form of fund provision through the securities market; however, fair distribution for returns is not practiced by opening company. Especially, construction firms lost trust of Investor by lack of awareness to firm clearness, and then a vicious cycle of no effectiveness in fund provision through securities market is continued again. On this study correlation between stock quotations and primary financial factors of firms in order to grasp actual management condition in construction firms was analyzed. By this, the correlation between stock quotations and the result of firm management was provided. Also, necessity of firm's capital provision was explained, thus ways to ensure firm clearness was searched.

Perfecting the System for Assessment of the Financial Potential of a Transport Enterprise

  • Nesterov, Evgeny Aleksandrovich;Borisov, Andrei Viktorovich;Shadskaja, Irina Gennadievna;Shelygov, Aleksandr Vladimirovich;Sharonin, Pavel Nikolaevich;Frolov, Alexander Lvovich;Lebedeva, Olga Yevgenievna
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
    • /
    • v.22 no.7
    • /
    • pp.109-116
    • /
    • 2022
  • The article is devoted to perfecting the system of management of the financial potential of transport enterprises. It is established that transport as an integral part of the state economy has to organically enter the market economy and provide sustainable transport services to national economy enterprises regardless of ownership, as well as ensure passenger transportation. It is also determined that in the conditions of market relations, transport highways must perform their functions with sufficient economic benefit to keep their material and technical resources in good order, conduct an investment policy with extensive use of scientific and technological progress, as well as a social policy guaranteeing the conditions for employees' motivated work. The study reveals an association between the financial and strategic goals of transport enterprises and the minimization of their economic risks, the prevention of bankruptcy and profit margin shortfalls. It is found that transport enterprises need to strive for the overall improvement of their financial potential through increasing the components of financial potential and assessing the impact of risk factors on them: the capacity of fixed assets, the capacity of financial resources, the capacity of services, and the capacity of credit opportunities. These are the elements of transport enterprises' financial potential that ensure its desired level. It is demonstrated that of critical importance in managing the financial potential of a transport enterprise is the role of financial resources, as a subject cannot reach the desired strategic goals without them.

A Study on the Success Factors of Venture Entrepreneurs and Entrepreneurship Education (벤처기업 창업자의 성공요인 분석을 통한 창업교육에 대한 시사점 탐색)

  • Lee, Yong-hee;Park, Su-hong
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.231-244
    • /
    • 2014
  • Domestic recessions, business restructurings, voluntary resignations and youth unemployment crises have fueled competition in the start-up market, and business start-up is increasingly incited as a means to make a living under circumstances. However, ill-prepared business start-ups result in bankruptcy. Profound knowledge and skills are required for successful start-up. A successful entrepreneur of a business is often not born but made. The purpose of this study was to examine the success factors of successful venture entrepreneurs in an effort to make some suggestions on entrepreneurship education. After the characteristics of the selected successful venture entrepreneurs were analyzed, 18 items were selected as their success factors, and the following six things were presented as what should be taken into account in relation to the competency of a successful entrepreneur: First, achievement-needs characteristics and goal-oriented characteristics that belong to the characteristics of entrepreneurs could be educationally taken advantage of in entrepreneurship education. Second, achievement-needs characteristics are an educational element of the preparatory stage, and goal-oriented characteristics are an educational element for business administration after starting a business. Third, hands-on experience is mandatory since learning by experience is quite important for entrepreneurs. Fourth, entrepreneurship education is more effective when it targets the younger generations. Fifth, the kind of educational support that is to assess the entrepreneurship of prospective entrepreneurs to help them improve their overall entrepreneurship is required. Finally, entrepreneurship education should be offered by a person with experience of setting up a business so that he or she could inform learners of their practical experience and knowhow.

  • PDF