• Title/Summary/Keyword: Backward simulation

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Constraints and opportunities to sustain future wheat yield and water productivity in semi-arid environment

  • Ahmad, Mirza Junaid;Choi, Kyung-Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2019.05a
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    • pp.185-185
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    • 2019
  • Sustaining future wheat production is challenged by anthropogenically forced climate warming and drying led by increased concentration of greenhouse gases all around the globe. Warming stresses, originating from the elevated $CO_2$ concentration, are continuously reported to have negative impacts on wheat growth and yield. Yet, elevated $CO_2$ concentration, despite being disparagingly blamed for promoting warming, is also associated with a phenomenon called $CO_2$ enrichment; in which wheat yield can improve due to the enhanced photosynthesis rates and less water loss through transpiration. The conflicting nature of climate warming and $CO_2$ enrichment and their interplay can have specific implications under different environments. It is established form the field and simulation studies that the two contrasting phenomena would act severely in their own respect under arid and semi-arid environments. Wheat is a dietary staple for masses in Pakistan. The country's wheat production system is under constant stress to produce more from irrigated agricultural lands, primarily lying under arid to semi-arid environments, to meet the rapidly growing domestic needs. This work comprehensively examines the warming impacts over wheat yield and water productivity (WP), with and without the inclusion of $CO_2$ enrichment, under semi-arid environment of Punjab which is the largest agricultural province of Pakistan. Future wheat yields and WPs were simulated by FAO developed AquaCrop model v 5.0. The model was run using the bias-correction climate change projections up to 2080 under two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 and 8.5. Wheat yield and WPs decreased without considering the $CO_2$ enrichment effects owing to the elevated irrigation demands and accelerated evapotranspiration rates. The results suggested that $CO_2$ enrichment could help maintain the current yield and WPs levels during the 2030s (2021-2050); however, it might not withhold the negative climate warming impacts during the 2060s (2051-2080). Furthermore, 10 - 20 day backward shift in sowing dates could also help ease the constraints imposed by climate warming over wheat yields and WPs. Although, $CO_2$ enrichment showed promises to counteract the adverse climate warming impacts but the interactions between climate warming and $CO_2$ concentrations were quite uncertain and required further examination.

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Implicit Numerical Integration of Two-surface Plasticity Model for Coarse-grained Soils (Implicit 수치적분 방법을 이용한 조립토에 관한 구성방정식의 수행)

  • Choi, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.45-59
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    • 2006
  • The successful performance of any numerical geotechnical simulation depends on the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical implementation of constitutive model used to simulate the stress-strain (constitutive) response of the soil. The corner stone of the numerical implementation of constitutive models is the numerical integration of the incremental form of soil-plasticity constitutive equations over a discrete sequence of time steps. In this paper a well known two-surface soil plasticity model is implemented using a generalized implicit return mapping algorithm to arbitrary convex yield surfaces referred to as the Closest-Point-Projection method (CPPM). The two-surface model describes the nonlinear behavior of coarse-grained materials by incorporating a bounding surface concept together with isotropic and kinematic hardening as well as fabric formulation to account for the effect of fabric formation on the unloading response. In the course of investigating the performance of the CPPM integration method, it is proven that the algorithm is an accurate, robust, and efficient integration technique useful in finite element contexts. It is also shown that the algorithm produces a consistent tangent operator $\frac{d\sigma}{d\varepsilon}$ during the iterative process with quadratic convergence rate of the global iteration process.

Monitoring of Atmospheric Aerosol using GMS-5 Satellite Remote Sensing Data (GMS-5 인공위성 원격탐사 자료를 이용한 대기 에어러솔 모니터링)

  • Lee, Kwon Ho;Kim, Jeong Eun;Kim, Young Jun;Suh, Aesuk;Ahn, Myung Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.1-15
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    • 2002
  • Atmospheric aerosols interact with sunlight and affect the global radiation balance that can cause climate change through direct and indirect radiative forcing. Because of the spatial and temporal uncertainty of aerosols in atmosphere, aerosol characteristics are not considered through GCMs (General Circulation Model). Therefor it is important physical and optical characteristics should be evaluated to assess climate change and radiative effect by atmospheric aerosols. In this study GMS-5 satellite data and surface measurement data were analyzed using a radiative transfer model for the Yellow Sand event of April 7~8, 2000 in order to investigate the atmospheric radiative effects of Yellow Sand aerosols, MODTRAN3 simulation results enable to inform the relation between satellite channel albedo and aerosol optical thickness(AOT). From this relation AOT was retreived from GMS-5 visible channel. The variance observations of satellite images enable remote sensing of the Yellow Sand particles. Back trajectory analysis was performed to track the air mass from the Gobi desert passing through Korean peninsular with high AOT value measured by ground based measurement. The comparison GMS-5 AOT to ground measured RSR aerosol optical depth(AOD) show that for Yellow Sand aerosols, the albedo measured over ocean surfaces can be used to obtain the aerosol optical thickness using appropriate aerosol model within an error of about 10%. In addition, LIDAR network measurements and backward trajectory model showed characteristics and appearance of Yellow Sand during Yellow Sand events. These data will be good supporting for monitoring of Yellow Sand aerosols.

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