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A Study on the Selection of Optimum Probability Distribution for Rainfall Frequency Analysis (강우빈도해석 시 최적분포형 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Hong-Geun;Kim, Jin-Young;Kwon, Young-Jun;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2017.05a
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    • pp.412-412
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    • 2017
  • 강우빈도해석을 위해서는 확률분포선정이 우선적으로 이루어져야 한다. 우리나라에서는 사용상의 편리상, 기존 해석결과와의 연속성 등을 이유로 Gumbel 확률분포가 가장 일반적으로 활용되고 있다. 그러나, 분포형 선정에 따른 확률강수량의 차이가 크게 발생한다는 점에서 단순히 해석상의 편리성을 기준으로 분포형 선정이 이루어지는 것은 바람직하지 않다. 특히, 우리나라에서 강우빈도해석 시 분포형 선정은 형식적인 수준에 그치고 있으며, 주로 KS검정, 검정 등 적합도 검정을 통해 고려된 분포형의 통계적 유의성만을 평가하고 있다. 그러나, 최적 분포형 선정이라는 관점에서 이러한 유의성 검정보다는 정량적인 지표를 기준으로 확률분포형 선정이 이루어지는 것이 적합할 것으로 판단된다. 즉, 자료의 설명력이 가장 우수한 분포를 정량적 지표를 기준으로 추정하는 것이 수문통계학적으로 적합성을 갖는다. 이러한 점에서 본 연구에서는 우도함수, BIC 및 AIC를 기준으로 우리나라 주요 강수지점에서 대해서 최적 분포형을 선정하고, 기존 Gumbel 분포를 기준으로 산정된 확률강수량과의 양적차이를 평가해보고자 한다.

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Building Hybrid Stop-Words Technique with Normalization for Pre-Processing Arabic Text

  • Atwan, Jaffar
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.7
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    • pp.65-74
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    • 2022
  • In natural language processing, commonly used words such as prepositions are referred to as stop-words; they have no inherent meaning and are therefore ignored in indexing and retrieval tasks. The removal of stop-words from Arabic text has a significant impact in terms of reducing the size of a cor- pus text, which leads to an improvement in the effectiveness and performance of Arabic-language processing systems. This study investigated the effectiveness of applying a stop-word lists elimination with normalization as a preprocessing step. The idea was to merge statistical method with the linguistic method to attain the best efficacy, and comparing the effects of this two-pronged approach in reducing corpus size for Ara- bic natural language processing systems. Three stop-word lists were considered: an Arabic Text Lookup Stop-list, Frequency- based Stop-list using Zipf's law, and Combined Stop-list. An experiment was conducted using a selected file from the Arabic Newswire data set. In the experiment, the size of the cor- pus was compared after removing the words contained in each list. The results showed that the best reduction in size was achieved by using the Combined Stop-list with normalization, with a word count reduction of 452930 and a compression rate of 30%.

Differences by Selection Method for Exposure Factor Input Distribution for Use in Probabilistic Consumer Exposure Assessment

  • Kang, Sohyun;Kim, Jinho;Lim, Miyoung;Lee, Kiyoung
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.266-271
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    • 2022
  • Background: The selection of distributions of input parameters is an important component in probabilistic exposure assessment. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) methods are used to determine the distribution of exposure factors. However, there are no clear guidelines for choosing an appropriate GOF method. Objectives: The outcomes of probabilistic consumer exposure assessment were compared by using five different GOF methods for the selection of input distributions: chi-squared test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson-Darling test (A-D), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Methods: Individual exposures were estimated based on product usage factor combinations from 10,000 respondents. The distribution of individual exposure was considered as the true value of population exposures. Results: Among the five GOF methods, probabilistic exposure distributions using the A-D and K-S methods were similar to individual exposure estimations. Comparing the 95th percentiles of the probabilistic distributions and the individual estimations for 10 CPs, there were 0.73 to 1.92 times differences for the A-D method, and 0.73 to 1.60 times differences (excluding tire-shine spray) for the K-S method. Conclusions: There were significant differences in exposure assessment results among the selection of the GOF methods. Therefore, the GOF methods for probabilistic consumer exposure assessment should be carefully selected.

Frequency Analysis of Snow depth Using Bayesian mixture distribution (Bayesian 혼합분포를 활용한 최심신적설량 빈도분석)

  • Kim, Ho Jun;Urnachimeg, Sumiya;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.136-136
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    • 2020
  • 홍수와 가뭄은 우리나라에 대표적인 수재해로서 관련 연구도 활발히 진행되고 있다. 반면 겨울철에 발생하는 적설의 경우 발생빈도와 피해가 상대적으로 적었으며 관련 연구 또한 미비한 실정이다. 우리나라 일부 남부지방은 강우와 다르게 연중 눈이 내리지 않는 경우가 존재하며, 자료 중 '0'값을 가지게 된다. 이로 인해 최적분포형 선정 및 매개변수 추정에 어려움이 있으며, 특히 '0'값으로 인해 단일 확률분포를 이용한 빈도해석은 한계가 있다. 본 연구에서는 연중 눈이 내리지 않는 무적설량을 고려하기 위하여 두 가지 이상의 확률분포함수를 결합한 혼합분포함수를 개발하였다. Bayesian 기법을 이용하여 무강우의 기준이 되는 값(δ)을 매개변수로 고려하여 추정하였으며, 이에 따른 적설발생 평균확률(P을 Mixing Ratio로 고려하여 혼합분포함수를 제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 기상청 산하 관측소 중 20년 이상의 지점을 선정하여 최심신적설량을 활용하였으며, 빈도별 확률적설심을 산정하였다. 적합한 확률분포형 선정을 위해 먼저 Bayesian 기법으로 매개변수와 우도함수를 산정한 후 각 분포형의 BIC(bayesian information criterion)값을 비교하였다. 선정된 최적분포형에 대해 빈도분석을 실시하여 최심신적설량을 제시하였다. 추가적으로 무강우를 기존 기준인 '0'으로 고정하여 본 연구에서 제시한 결과 값과 비교하였다.

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Development of Personalized Respiratory Training Device with Real-time Feedback for Respiratory Muscle Strengthening

  • Merve Nur Uygun;Yeong-geol Bae;Yejin Choi;Dae-Sung Park
    • Physical Therapy Rehabilitation Science
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2023
  • Objective: The practice of breathing exercises involves altering the depth and frequency of respiration. Strengthening respiratory muscles plays a crucial role in maintaining overall health and well-being. The efficiency of the respiratory system affects not only physical activity but also various physiological processes including cardiovascular health, lung function, and cognitive abilities. The study evaluated the reliability of the developed device for inspiratory/expiratory training using pressure sensors and Bluetooth connectivity with a smartphone application. Design: Design & development research Methods: The research methodology involved connecting a custom-made respiratory sensor to an IMT-PEP BIC Breath device. Various pressure conditions were measured, and statistical analyses were performed to assess reliability and consistency. Results showed high Intraclass Coefficient Correlation (ICC) values for both inspiratory and expiratory pressures, indicating strong test-retest reliability. The device was designed for ease of use and wireless monitoring through a smartphone app. Results: This study conducted at expiratory pressure confirmed the proper operation of the IMT/PEP breathing trainer at the specified pressure setting in the product. The pressure sensor demonstrated high test-retest reliability with an ICC value of 0.999 for both expiratory and inspiratory pressure measurements. Conclusions: The developed respiratory training device measured and monitored inspiratory and expiratory pressures, demonstrating its reliability for respiratory training. The system could be utilized to record training frequency and intensity, providing potential benefits for patients requiring respiratory interventions. Further research is needed to assess the full potential of the device in diverse populations and applications.

Adaptive Bit-Interleaved Coded OFDM over Time-Varying Channels (시변 채널에서 Bit-Interleaved Coded OFDM을 위한 적응 변조 기법)

  • Choi, Jin-Soo;Sung, Chang-Kyung;Moon, Sung-Hyun;Lee, In-Kyu
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.32-39
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    • 2009
  • When adapting the transmitter to the channel state information(CSI), improved transmission is possible compared to the open loop system where no CSI is provided at the transmitter. However, since the perfect channel information is rarely available at the transmitter, the system design based on the partial CSI becomes an important factor. Especially, in mobile environments, the consideration for the outdated CSI should be applied for mitigating the performance degradation. In this paper, we propose a robust adaptive modulation and coding scheme for bit-interleaved coded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing over time-varying channels. With reasonable feedback overhead, the proposed scheme shows the enhanced performance by compensating for the outdated CSI due to Doppler spread. Simulation results confirm that the performance gain is achieved by applying an accurate BER estimation method.

5-Hydroxytryptamine Inhibits Glutamatergic Synaptic Transmission in Rat Corticostriatal Brain Slice

  • Cho, Hyeong-Seok;Choi, Se-Joon;Kim, Ki-Jung;Lee, Hyun-Ho;Kim, Seong-Yun;Cho, Young-Jin;Sung, Ki-Wug
    • The Korean Journal of Physiology and Pharmacology
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.255-262
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    • 2005
  • Striatum is involved in the control of movement and habitual memory. It receives glutamatergic input from wide area of the cerebral cortex as well as an extensive serotonergic (5-hydroxytryptamine, 5-HT) input from the raphe nuclei. In our study, the effects of 5-HT on synaptic transmission were studied in the rat corticostriatal brain slice using in vitro whole-cell recording technique. 5-HT inhibited the amplitude as well as frequency of spontaneous excitatory postsynaptic currents (sEPSC) significantly, and neither ${\gamma}-aminobutyric$ acid (GABA)A receptor antagonist bicuculline (BIC), nor $N-methyl-_{D}-aspartate$ (NMDA) receptor antagonist, $_{DL}-2-amino-5-phosphonovaleric$ acid (AP-V) could block the effect of 5-HT. In the presence non-NMDA receptor antagonist, 2,3-dioxo-6-nitro-1,2,3,4-tetrahydrobenxo[f] quinoxaline-7-sulfonamide (NBQX), the inhibitory effect of 5-HT was blocked. We also figured out that 5-HT change the channel kinetics of the sEPSC. There was a significant increase in the rise time during the 5-HT application. Our results suggest that 5-HT has an effect on both pre- and postsynaptic site with decreasing neurotransmitter release probability of glutamate and decreasing the sensitivity to glutamate by increasing the rise time of non-NMDA receptor mediated synaptic transmission in the corticostriatal synapses.

A Study of Short-term Won/Doller Exchange rate Prediction Model using Hidden Markov Model (은닉마아코프모델을 이용한 단기 원/달러 환율예측 모형 연구)

  • Jeon, Jin-Ho;Kim, Min-Soo
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.229-235
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    • 2012
  • Forex trading participants, due to the intensified economic internationalization exchange risk avoidance measures are needed. In this research, Model suitable for estimation of time-series data, such as stock prices and exchange rates, through the concealment of HMM and estimate the short-term exchange rate forecasting model is applied to the prediction of the future. Estimated by applying the optimal model if the real exchange rate data for a certain period of the future will be able to predict the movement aspect of it. Alleged concealment of HMM. For the estimation of the model to accurately estimate the number of states of the model via Bayesian Information Criterion was confirmed as a model predictive aspect of physical exercise aspect and predict the movement of the two curves were similar.

SHM-based probabilistic representation of wind properties: statistical analysis and bivariate modeling

  • Ye, X.W.;Yuan, L.;Xi, P.S.;Liu, H.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.591-600
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    • 2018
  • The probabilistic characterization of wind field characteristics is a significant task for fatigue reliability assessment of long-span railway bridges in wind-prone regions. In consideration of the effect of wind direction, the stochastic properties of wind field should be represented by a bivariate statistical model of wind speed and direction. This paper presents the construction of the bivariate model of wind speed and direction at the site of a railway arch bridge by use of the long-term structural health monitoring (SHM) data. The wind characteristics are derived by analyzing the real-time wind monitoring data, such as the mean wind speed and direction, turbulence intensity, turbulence integral scale, and power spectral density. A sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method is proposed to formulate the joint distribution model of wind speed and direction. For the probability density function (PDF) of wind speed, a double-parameter Weibull distribution function is utilized, and a von Mises distribution function is applied to represent the PDF of wind direction. The SQP algorithm with multi-start points is used to estimate the parameters in the bivariate model, namely Weibull-von Mises mixture model. One-year wind monitoring data are selected to validate the effectiveness of the proposed modeling method. The optimal model is jointly evaluated by the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and coefficient of determination, $R^2$. The obtained results indicate that the proposed SQP algorithm-based finite mixture modeling method can effectively establish the bivariate model of wind speed and direction. The established bivariate model of wind speed and direction will facilitate the wind-induced fatigue reliability assessment of long-span bridges.

Bayesian Method for Modeling Male Breast Cancer Survival Data

  • Khan, Hafiz Mohammad Rafiqullah;Saxena, Anshul;Rana, Sagar;Ahmed, Nasar Uddin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.663-669
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    • 2014
  • Background: With recent progress in health science administration, a huge amount of data has been collected from thousands of subjects. Statistical and computational techniques are very necessary to understand such data and to make valid scientific conclusions. The purpose of this paper was to develop a statistical probability model and to predict future survival times for male breast cancer patients who were diagnosed in the USA during 1973-2009. Materials and Methods: A random sample of 500 male patients was selected from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. The survival times for the male patients were used to derive the statistical probability model. To measure the goodness of fit tests, the model building criterions: Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) were employed. A novel Bayesian method was used to derive the posterior density function for the parameters and the predictive inference for future survival times from the exponentiated Weibull model, assuming that the observed breast cancer survival data follow such type of model. The Markov chain Monte Carlo method was used to determine the inference for the parameters. Results: The summary results of certain demographic and socio-economic variables are reported. It was found that the exponentiated Weibull model fits the male survival data. Statistical inferences of the posterior parameters are presented. Mean predictive survival times, 95% predictive intervals, predictive skewness and kurtosis were obtained. Conclusions: The findings will hopefully be useful in treatment planning, healthcare resource allocation, and may motivate future research on breast cancer related survival issues.