• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.635-642
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• 2014

In this paper, an efficient technique is developed to predict failure probability of three failure modes(case rupture, fracture and bolt breakage) related to solid rocket motor case due to the inner pressure during the mission flight. The overall procedure consists of the steps: 1) design parameters affecting the case failure are identified and their uncertainties are modelled by probability distribution, 2) combustion analysis in the interior of the case is carried out to obtain maximum expected operating pressure(MEOP), 3) stress and other structural performances are evaluated by finite element analysis(FEA), and 4) failure probabilities are calculated for the above mentioned failure modes. Axi-symmetric assumption for FEA is employed for simplification while contact between bolted joint is accounted for. Efficient procedure is developed to evaluate failure probability which consists of finding first an Most Probable Failure Point(MPP) using First-Order Reliability Method(FORM), next making a response surface model around the MPP using Latin Hypercube Sampling(LHS), and finally calculating failure probability by employing Importance Sampling.