• Title/Summary/Keyword: Average prediction variance

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A Prediction of Coronary Perfusion Pressure Using the Extracted Parameter From Ventricular Fibrillation ECG Wave (심실세동 심전도 파형 추출 파라미터를 이용한 관상동맥 관류압 예측)

  • Jang Seung-Jin;Hwang Sung-Oh;Yoon Young-Ro;Lee Hyun-Sook
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.274-283
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    • 2005
  • Coronary Perfusion Pressure(CPP) is known for the most important parameter related to the Return of Spontaneous Circulation (ROSC), however, clinically measuring CPP is difficult either invasive or non-invaisive method. En this paper, we analyze the correlation between the extracted parameter from VF ECG wave and the CPP with the statistical method, and predict CPP value using the extracted parameters within significance level. the extracted parameters are median frequency(MF), peak frequency(PF), average segment amplitude(ASA), MSA(maximum segment amplitude), Two parameters, MF, and ASA are selected in order to predict CPP value with general regression neural network, and then we evaluated the agreement statistics between the simulated CPP and the measured CPP. In conclusion, the mean and variance of the difference between the simulated CPP and the measured CPP are 8.9716±1.3526 mmHg, and standard deviation 6.4815 mmHg with one hundred-times training and test results. the simulated CPP and the measured CPP are agreed with the overall accuracy $90.68\%$ and kappa coefficient $81.14\%$ as a discriminant parameter of ROSC.

Numerical investigation and optimization of the solar chimney performances for natural ventilation using RSM

  • Mohamed Walid Azizi;Moumtez Bensouici;Fatima Zohra Bensouici
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.6
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    • pp.521-533
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    • 2023
  • In the present study, the finite volume method is applied for the thermal performance prediction of the natural ventilation system using vertical solar chimney whereas, design parameters are optimized through the response surface methodology (RSM). The computational simulations are performed for various parameters of the solar chimney such as absorber temperature (40≤Tabs≤70℃), inlet temperature (20≤T0≤30℃), inlet height of (0.1≤h≤0.2 m) and chimney width (0.1≤d≤0.2 m). Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was carried out to identify the design parameters that influence the average Nusselt number (Nu) and mass flow rate (ṁ). Then, quadratic polynomial regression models were developed to predict of all the response parameters. Consequently, numerical and graphical optimizations were performed to achieve multi-objective optimization for the desired criteria. According to the desirability function approach, it can be seen that the optimum objective functions are Nu=25.67 and ṁ=24.68 kg/h·m, corresponding to design parameters h=0.18 m, d=0.2 m, Tabs=46.81℃ and T0=20℃. The optimal ventilation flow rate is enhanced by about 96.65% compared to the minimum ventilation rate, while solar energy consumption is reduced by 49.54% compared to the maximum ventilation rate.

Evaluation of bias and uncertainty in snow depth reanalysis data over South Korea (한반도 적설심 재분석자료의 오차 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Jeon, Hyunho;Lee, Seulchan;Lee, Yangwon;Kim, Jinsoo;Choi, Minha
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.9
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    • pp.543-551
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    • 2023
  • Snow is an essential climate factor that affects the climate system and surface energy balance, and it also has a crucial role in water balance by providing solid water stored during the winter for spring runoff and groundwater recharge. In this study, statistical analysis of Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS), Modern.-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and ERA5-Land snow depth data were used to evaluate the applicability in South Korea. The statistical analysis between the Automated Synoptic Observing System (ASOS) ground observation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the reanalysis data showed that LDAPS and ERA5-Land were highly correlated with a correlation coefficient of more than 0.69, but LDAPS showed a large error with an RMSE of 0.79 m. In the case of MERRA-2, the correlation coefficient was lower at 0.17 because the constant value was estimated continuously for some periods, which did not adequately simulate the increase and decrease trend between data. The statistical analysis of LDAPS and ASOS showed high and low performance in the nearby Gangwon Province, where the average snowfall is relatively high, and in the southern region, where the average snowfall is low, respectively. Finally, the error variance between the four independent snow depth data used in this study was calculated through triple collocation (TC), and a merged snow depth data was produced through weighting factors. The reanalyzed data showed the highest error variance in the order of LDAPS, MERRA-2, and ERA5-Land, and LDAPS was given a lower weighting factor due to its higher error variance. In addition, the spatial distribution of ERA5-Land snow depth data showed less variability, so the TC-merged snow depth data showed a similar spatial distribution to MERRA-2, which has a low spatial resolution. Considering the correlation, error, and uncertainty of the data, the ERA5-Land data is suitable for snow-related analysis in South Korea. In addition, it is expected that LDAPS data, which is highly correlated with other data but tends to be overestimated, can be actively utilized for high-resolution representation of regional and climatic diversity if appropriate corrections are performed.

Estimation of the methane generation rate constant using a large-scale respirometer at a landfill site

  • Park, Jin-Kyu;Tameda, Kazuo;Higuchi, Sotaro;Lee, Nam-Hoon
    • Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.339-346
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    • 2017
  • The objective of this study is the evaluation of the performance of a large-scale respirometer (LSR) of 17.7 L in the determination of the methane generation rate constant (k) values. To achieve this objective, a comparison between anaerobic (GB21) and LSR tests was conducted. The data were modeled using a linear function, and the resulting correlation coefficient ($R^2$) of the linear regression is 0.91. This result shows that despite the aerobic conditions, the biodegradability values that were obtained from the LSR test produced results that are similar to those from the GB21 test. In this respect, the LSR test can be an indicator of the anaerobic biodegradability for landfill waste. In addition, the results show the high repeatability of the tests with an average coefficient of variance (CV) that is lower than 10%; furthermore, the CV for the LSR is lower than that of the GB21, which indicates that the LSR-test method could provide a better representation of waste samples. Therefore, the LSR method allows for both the prediction of the long-term biodegradation potential in a shorter length of time and the reduction of the sampling errors that are caused by the heterogeneity of waste samples. The k values are $0.156y^{-1}$ and $0.127y^{-1}$ for the cumulative biogas production (GB21) and the cumulative oxygen uptake for the LSR, respectively.

OECD/NEA BENCHMARK FOR UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN MODELING (UAM) FOR LWRS - SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION OF NEUTRONICS CASES (PHASE I)

  • Bratton, Ryan N.;Avramova, M.;Ivanov, K.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.313-342
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    • 2014
  • A Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) benchmark for Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) is defined in order to facilitate the development and validation of available uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis methods for best-estimate Light water Reactor (LWR) design and safety calculations. The benchmark has been named the OECD/NEA UAM-LWR benchmark, and has been divided into three phases each of which focuses on a different portion of the uncertainty propagation in LWR multi-physics and multi-scale analysis. Several different reactor cases are modeled at various phases of a reactor calculation. This paper discusses Phase I, known as the "Neutronics Phase", which is devoted mostly to the propagation of nuclear data (cross-section) uncertainty throughout steady-state stand-alone neutronics core calculations. Three reactor systems (for which design, operation and measured data are available) are rigorously studied in this benchmark: Peach Bottom Unit 2 BWR, Three Mile Island Unit 1 PWR, and VVER-1000 Kozloduy-6/Kalinin-3. Additional measured data is analyzed such as the KRITZ LEU criticality experiments and the SNEAK-7A and 7B experiments of the Karlsruhe Fast Critical Facility. Analyzed results include the top five neutron-nuclide reactions, which contribute the most to the prediction uncertainty in keff, as well as the uncertainty in key parameters of neutronics analysis such as microscopic and macroscopic cross-sections, six-group decay constants, assembly discontinuity factors, and axial and radial core power distributions. Conclusions are drawn regarding where further studies should be done to reduce uncertainties in key nuclide reaction uncertainties (i.e.: $^{238}U$ radiative capture and inelastic scattering (n, n') as well as the average number of neutrons released per fission event of $^{239}Pu$).

Computer Aided Diagnosis Applications for the Differential Diagnosis of Infarction: Apply on Brain CT Image (뇌경색 감별진단을 위한 컴퓨터보조진단 응용: Brain CT Images 적용)

  • Park, Hyong-Hu;Cho, Mun-Joo;Im, In-Chul;Lee, Jin-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.10 no.8
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    • pp.645-652
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    • 2016
  • In this study, based on the analysis of texture feature values of statistical properties. And we examined the normal and the applicability of the computer-aided diagnosis of cerebral infarction in the brain computed tomography images. The experiment was analyzed to evaluate the ROC curve recognition rate of disease using six parameters representing the feature values of the texture. As a result, it showed average mean 88%, variance 92%, relative smoothness 94%, uniformity of 88%, a high disease recognition rate of entropy 84%. However, it showed a slightly lower disease recognition rate and 58% for skewness. In the analysis using ROC curve, the area under the curve for each parameter indicates 0.886 (p = 0.0001) or more, resulted in a meaningful recognition of the disease. Further, to determine the cut-off values for each parameter are determined to be the prediction of disease through the computer-aided diagnosis.

Accuracy of genomic-polygenic estimated breeding value for milk yield and fat yield in the Thai multibreed dairy population with five single nucleotide polymorphism sets

  • Wongpom, Bodin;Koonawootrittriron, Skorn;Elzo, Mauricio A.;Suwanasopee, Thanathip;Jattawa, Danai
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.32 no.9
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    • pp.1340-1348
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    • 2019
  • Objective: The objectives were to compare variance components, genetic parameters, prediction accuracies, and genomic-polygenic estimated breeding value (EBV) rankings for milk yield (MY) and fat yield (FY) in the Thai multibreed dairy population using five single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) sets from GeneSeek GGP80K chip. Methods: The dataset contained monthly MY and FY of 8,361 first-lactation cows from 810 farms. Variance components, genetic parameters, and EBV for five SNP sets from the GeneSeek GGP80K chip were obtained using a 2-trait single-step average-information restricted maximum likelihood procedure. The SNP sets were the complete SNP set (all available SNP; SNP100), top 75% set (SNP75), top 50% set (SNP50), top 25% set (SNP25), and top 5% set (SNP5). The 2-trait models included herd-year-season, heterozygosity and age at first calving as fixed effects, and animal additive genetic and residual as random effects. Results: The estimates of additive genetic variances for MY and FY from SNP subsets were mostly higher than those of the complete set. The SNP25 MY and FY heritability estimates (0.276 and 0.183) were higher than those from SNP75 (0.265 and 0.168), SNP50 (0.275 and 0.179), SNP5 (0.231 and 0.169), and SNP100 (0.251and 0.159). The SNP25 EBV accuracies for MY and FY (39.76% and 33.82%) were higher than for SNP75 (35.01% and 32.60%), SNP50 (39.64% and 33.38%), SNP5 (38.61% and 29.70%), and SNP100 (34.43% and 31.61%). All rank correlations between SNP100 and SNP subsets were above 0.98 for both traits, except for SNP100 and SNP5 (0.93 for MY; 0.92 for FY). Conclusion: The high SNP25 estimates of genetic variances, heritabilities, EBV accuracies, and rank correlations between SNP100 and SNP25 for MY and FY indicated that genotyping animals with SNP25 dedicated chip would be a suitable to maintain genotyping costs low while speeding up genetic progress for MY and FY in the Thai dairy population.

Modeling of the Failure Rates and Estimation of the Economical Replacement Time of Water Mains Based on an Individual Pipe Identification Method (개별관로 정의 방법을 이용한 상수관로 파손율 모형화 및 경제적 교체시기의 산정)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Lee, Hyeong-Seok;Bae, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Kyu-Lee
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.7
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    • pp.525-535
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    • 2009
  • In this paper a heuristic method for identifying individual pipes in water pipe networks to determine specific sections of the pipes that need to be replaced due to deterioration. An appropriate minimum pipe length is determined by selecting the pipe length that has the greatest variance of the average cumulative break number slopes among the various pipe lengths used. As a result, the minimum pipe length for the case study water network is determined as 4 m and a total of 39 individual pipe IDs are obtained. The economically optimal replacement times of the individual pipe IDs are estimated by using the threshold break rate of an individual pipe ID and the pipe break trends models for which the General Pipe Break Prediction Model(Park and Loganathan, 2002) that can incorporate the linear, exponential, and in-between of the linear and exponetial failure trends and the ROCOFs based on the modified time scale(Park et al., 2007) are used. The maximum log-likelihoods of the log-linear ROCOF and Weibull ROCOF estimated for the break data of a pipe are compared and the ROCOF that has a greater likelihood is selected for the pipe of interest. The effects of the social costs of a pipe break on the optimal replacement time are also discussed.

Application of single-step genomic evaluation using social genetic effect model for growth in pig

  • Hong, Joon Ki;Kim, Young Sin;Cho, Kyu Ho;Lee, Deuk Hwan;Min, Ye Jin;Cho, Eun Seok
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.32 no.12
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    • pp.1836-1843
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    • 2019
  • Objective: Social genetic effects (SGE) are an important genetic component for growth, group productivity, and welfare in pigs. The present study was conducted to evaluate i) the feasibility of the single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) approach with the inclusion of SGE in the model in pigs, and ii) the changes in the contribution of heritable SGE to the phenotypic variance with different scaling ${\omega}$ constants for genomic relationships. Methods: The dataset included performance tested growth rate records (average daily gain) from 13,166 and 21,762 pigs Landrace (LR) and Yorkshire (YS), respectively. A total of 1,041 (LR) and 964 (YS) pigs were genotyped using the Illumina PorcineSNP60 v2 BeadChip panel. With the BLUPF90 software package, genetic parameters were estimated using a modified animal model for competitive traits. Giving a fixed weight to pedigree relationships (${\tau}:1$), several weights (${\omega}_{xx}$, 0.1 to 1.0; with a 0.1 interval) were scaled with the genomic relationship for best model fit with Akaike information criterion (AIC). Results: The genetic variances and total heritability estimates ($T^2$) were mostly higher with ssGBLUP than in the pedigree-based analysis. The model AIC value increased with any level of ${\omega}$ other than 0.6 and 0.5 in LR and YS, respectively, indicating the worse fit of those models. The theoretical accuracies of direct and social breeding value were increased by decreasing ${\omega}$ in both breeds, indicating the better accuracy of ${\omega}_{0.1}$ models. Therefore, the optimal values of ${\omega}$ to minimize AIC and to increase theoretical accuracy were 0.6 in LR and 0.5 in YS. Conclusion: In conclusion, single-step ssGBLUP model fitting SGE showed significant improvement in accuracy compared with the pedigree-based analysis method; therefore, it could be implemented in a pig population for genomic selection based on SGE, especially in South Korean populations, with appropriate further adjustment of tuning parameters for relationship matrices.

Analysis of Accident Characteristics and Improvement Strategies of Flash Signal-operated Intersection in Seoul (서울시 점멸신호 운영에 따른 교통사고 분석 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Seung-Jun;Park, Byung-Jung;Lee, Jin-Hak;Kim, Ok-Sun
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.54-63
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    • 2014
  • Traffic accident frequency and severity level in Korea are known to be very serious. Especially the number of pedestrian fatalities was much worse and 1.6 time higher than the OECD average. According to the National Police Agency, the flash signals are reported to have many safety benefits as well as travel time reduction, which is opposed to the foreign studies. With this background of expanding the flash signal, this research aims to investigate the overall impact of the flash signal operation on safety, investigating and comparing the accident occurrence on the flash signal and the full signal intersections. For doing this accident prediction models for both flash and full signal intersections were estimated using independent variables (geometric features and traffic volume) and 3-year (2011-2013) accident data collected in Seoul. Considering the rare and random nature of accident occurrence and overdispersion (variance > mean) of the data, the negative binomial regression model was applied. As a result, installing wider crosswalk and increasing the number of pedestrian push buttons seemed to increase the safety of the flash signal intersections. In addition, the result showed that the average accident occurrence at the flash signal intersections was higher than at the full signal-operated intersections, 9% higher with everything else the same.