• 제목/요약/키워드: Average prediction variance

검색결과 46건 처리시간 0.024초

Prediction of Tropospheric Amplitude Scintillation on Earth-Space Paths with High-Elevation Angle

  • Potilar, W.;Nakasuwan, J.;Griwan, J.;Sangaroon, O.;Janchitrapongvej, K.
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 제어로봇시스템학회 2003년도 ICCAS
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    • pp.2078-2081
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents the studies on prediction models of tropospheric scintillation. The prediction scintillation models are Karasawa and ITU-R , which can be improved for different locations and circumstances. In this paper, the investigation of average time between variance ${\sigma}_n\;^2$ and the wet part of refractivity $N_{wet}$ under various conditions of meteorological parameters have been carried out at King Mongkut’s Institute of Technology Lankrabang , Bangkok , Thailand , in the range of Ku-band (12.260 GHz) on high elevation angle from Thaicom2 satellite. From the studies results shows that average period of time of 30 days are best suitable for find out the relation between average time variance ${\sigma}_n\;^2$ and the wet part of refractivity $N_{wet}$ according to Karasawa model, the average time variance is express as ${\sigma}_n\;^2=(0.003N_{wet}-0.1313)^2$ , the appropriation model for occurrence of scintillation has been analyzed and experimental results are carried out.

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An Adaptive Algorithm for the Quantization Step Size Control of MPEG-2

  • Cho, Nam-Ik
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and information Science
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    • 제2권6호
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    • pp.138-145
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    • 1997
  • This paper proposes an adaptive algorithm for the quantization step size control of MPEG-2, using the information obtained from the previously encoded picture. Before quantizing the DCT coefficients, the properties of reconstruction error of each macro block (MB) is predicted from the previous frame. For the prediction of the error of current MB, a block with the size of MB in the previous frame are chosen by use of the motion vector. Since the original and reconstructed images of the previous frame are available in the encoder, we can calculate the reconstruction error of this block. This error is considered as the expected error of the current MB if it is quantized with the same step size and bit rate. Comparing the error of the MB with the average of overall MBs, if it is larger than the average, small step size is given for this MB, and vice versa. As a result, the error distribution of the MB is more concentrated to the average, giving low variance and improved image quality. Especially for the low bit application, the proposed algorithm gives much smaller error variance and higher PSNR compared to TM5 (test model 5).

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Structural monitoring and maintenance by quantitative forecast model via gray models

  • C.C. Hung;T. Nguyen
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.175-190
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    • 2023
  • This article aims to quantitatively predict the snowmelt in extreme cold regions, considering a combination of grayscale and neural models. The traditional non-equidistant GM(1,1) prediction model is optimized by adjusting the time-distance weight matrix, optimizing the background value of the differential equation and optimizing the initial value of the model, and using the BP neural network for the first. The adjusted ice forecast model has an accuracy of 0.984 and posterior variance and the average forecast error value is 1.46%. Compared with the GM(1,1) and BP network models, the accuracy of the prediction results has been significantly improved, and the quantitative prediction of the ice sheet is more accurate. The monitoring and maintenance of the structure by quantitative prediction model by gray models was clearly demonstrated in the model.

A Study on the Influence of a Missing Cell in a Class of Central Composite Designs

  • Park, Sung-Hyun;Noh, Hyun-Gon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제27권1호
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    • pp.133-152
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    • 1998
  • The central composite design is widely used in the response surface analysis, because it can fit the second order model with small experimental points. In practice, the experimental data are not always obtained on all the points. When there are missing observations, many problems due to the missing cells can occur. In this paper, the influence of a missing cell on the central composite design is discussed. First, the influences of a missing cell on the variances of estimated regression coefficents are compared as $\alpha$ varies. Second, how the average predition variance is affected by a missing sell is discussed. And the influence on rotatability is investigated. Third, the influence of a missing cell on optimality, especially on D-optimality and A-optimality, is examined.

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완전요인계획에 의한 선삭가공시 표면거칠기 예측 (Surface roughness prediction with a full factorial design in turning)

  • 양승한;이영문;배병중
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제1권1호
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    • pp.133-140
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    • 2002
  • The object of this paper is to predict the surface roughness using the experiment equation of surface roughness, which is developed with a full factorial design in turning. $3^3$ full factorial design has been used to study main and interaction effects of main cutting parameters such as cutting speed, feed rate, and depth of cut, on surface roughness. For prediction of surface roughness, the arithmetic average (Ra) is used, and stepwise regression has been used to check the significance of all effects of cutting parameters. Using the result of these, the experimental equation of surface roughness, which consists of significant effects of cutting parameters, has been developed. The coefficient of determination of this equation is 0.9908. And the prediction ability of this equation was verified by additional experiments. The result of that, the coefficient of determination is 0.9718.

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Exploring the Role of Preference Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Online Ratings Dynamics

  • Chu, Wujin;Roh, Minjung
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • 제15권4호
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    • pp.61-101
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    • 2014
  • This study investigates when and how disagreements in online customer ratings prompt more favorable product evaluations. Among the three metrics of volume, valence, and variance that feature in the research on online customer ratings, volume and valence have exhibited consistently positive patterns in their effects on product sales or evaluations (e.g., Dellarocas, Zhang, and Awad 2007; Liu 2006). Ratings variance, or the degree of disagreement among reviewers, however, has shown rather mixed results, with some studies reporting positive effects on product sales (e.g., Clement, Proppe, and Rott 2007) while others finding negative effects on product evaluations (e.g., Zhu and Zhang 2010). This study aims to resolve these contradictory findings by introducing preference heterogeneity as a possible moderator and causal attribution as a mediator to account for the moderating effect. The main proposition of this study is that when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high, a disagreement in ratings is attributed more to reviewers' different preferences than to unreliable product quality, which in turn prompts better quality evaluations of a product. Because disagreements mostly result from differences in reviewers' tastes or the low reliability of a product's quality (Mizerski 1982; Sen and Lerman 2007), a greater level of attribution to reviewer tastes can mitigate the negative effect of disagreement on product evaluations. Specifically, if consumers infer that reviewers' heterogeneous preferences result in subjectively different experiences and thereby highly diverse ratings, they would not disregard the overall quality of a product. However, if consumers infer that reviewers' preferences are quite homogeneous and thus the low reliability of the product quality contributes to such disagreements, they would discount the overall product quality. Therefore, consumers would respond more favorably to disagreements in ratings when preference heterogeneity is perceived as high rather than low. This study furthermore extends this prediction to the various levels of average ratings. The heuristicsystematic processing model so far indicates that the engagement in effortful systematic processing occurs only when sufficient motivation is present (Hann et al. 2007; Maheswaran and Chaiken 1991; Martin and Davies 1998). One of the key factors affecting this motivation is the aspiration level of the decision maker. Only under conditions that meet or exceed his aspiration level does he tend to engage in systematic processing (Patzelt and Shepherd 2008; Stephanous and Sage 1987). Therefore, systematic causal attribution processing regarding ratings variance is likely more activated when the average rating is high enough to meet the aspiration level than when it is too low to meet it. Considering that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity occurs through the mediation of causal attribution, this greater activation of causal attribution in high versus low average ratings would lead to more pronounced interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity in high versus low average ratings. Overall, this study proposes that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high as compared to when it is low. Two laboratory studies lend support to these predictions. Study 1 reveals that participants exposed to a high-preference heterogeneity book title (i.e., a novel) attributed disagreement in ratings more to reviewers' tastes, and thereby more favorably evaluated books with such ratings, compared to those exposed to a low-preference heterogeneity title (i.e., an English listening practice book). Study 2 then extended these findings to the various levels of average ratings and found that this greater preference for disagreement options under high preference heterogeneity is more pronounced when the average rating is high compared to when it is low. This study makes an important theoretical contribution to the online customer ratings literature by showing that preference heterogeneity serves as a key moderator of the effect of ratings variance on product evaluations and that causal attribution acts as a mediator of this moderation effect. A more comprehensive picture of the interplay among ratings variance, preference heterogeneity, and average ratings is also provided by revealing that the interaction between ratings variance and preference heterogeneity varies as a function of the average rating. In addition, this work provides some significant managerial implications for marketers in terms of how they manage word of mouth. Because a lack of consensus creates some uncertainty and anxiety over the given information, consumers experience a psychological burden regarding their choice of a product when ratings show disagreement. The results of this study offer a way to address this problem. By explicitly clarifying that there are many more differences in tastes among reviewers than expected, marketers can allow consumers to speculate that differing tastes of reviewers rather than an uncertain or poor product quality contribute to such conflicts in ratings. Thus, when fierce disagreements are observed in the WOM arena, marketers are advised to communicate to consumers that diverse, rather than uniform, tastes govern reviews and evaluations of products.

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Control strategies of energy storage limiting intermittent output of solar power generation: Planning and evaluation for participation in electricity market

  • Sewan Heo;Jinsoo Han;Wan-Ki Park
    • ETRI Journal
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    • 제45권4호
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    • pp.636-649
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    • 2023
  • Renewable energy generation cannot be consistently predicted or controlled. Therefore, it is currently not widely used in the electricity market, which requires dependable production. In this study, reliability- and variance-based controls of energy storage strategies are proposed to utilize renewable energy as a steady contributor to the electricity market. For reliability-based control, photovoltaic (PV) generation is assumed to be registered in the power generation plan. PV generation yields a reliable output using energy storage units to compensate for PV prediction errors. We also propose a runtime state-ofcharge management method for sustainable operations. With variance-based controls, changes in rapid power generation are limited through ramp rate control. This study introduces new reliability and variance indices as indicators for evaluating these strategies. The reliability index quantifies the degree to which the actual generation realizes the plan, and the variance index quantifies the degree of power change. The two strategies are verified based on simulations and experiments. The reliability index improved by 3.1 times on average over 21 days at a real power plant.

진동파워흐름해석의 주파수 평균해석에 대한 연구 (Research on Frequency Average Analysis of vibrational Power Flow Analysis)

  • 이재민;홍석윤;박영호
    • 한국소음진동공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국소음진동공학회 2005년도 춘계학술대회논문집
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    • pp.971-977
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    • 2005
  • Power Flow Analysis (PFA) is developed for the effective predictions of frequency-averaged vibrational response in medium-to-high frequency ranges. In PFA, the power coefficients of semi-infinite structure and for-field energy density are used to predict the vibrational responses of structures. Generally, at high frequencies, PFA can predict narrow-band frequency-averaged vibrational responses of built-up structures. However, in low- to medium frequency ranges, the dynamic responses obtained by PFA represent broad-band frequency-averaged vibrational energy densities. For the prediction of vibrational response variance in Power Flow Finite Element Method (PFFEM), the variances of input power and joint element matrix describing structural coupling relationship are derived. Finally, for the validity of developed formulation, numerical examples for two co-planer plates are performed and the vibrational response variance of the structure are compared with the results of classical and PFFEM solutions.

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Quality grading of Hanwoo (Korean native cattle breed) sub-images using convolutional neural network

  • Kwon, Kyung-Do;Lee, Ahyeong;Lim, Jongkuk;Cho, Soohyun;Lee, Wanghee;Cho, Byoung-Kwan;Seo, Youngwook
    • 농업과학연구
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    • 제47권4호
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    • pp.1109-1122
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    • 2020
  • The aim of this study was to develop a marbling classification and prediction model using small parts of sirloin images based on a deep learning algorithm, namely, a convolutional neural network (CNN). Samples were purchased from a commercial slaughterhouse in Korea, images for each grade were acquired, and the total images (n = 500) were assigned according to their grade number: 1++, 1+, 1, and both 2 & 3. The image acquisition system consists of a DSLR camera with a polarization filter to remove diffusive reflectance and two light sources (55 W). To correct the distorted original images, a radial correction algorithm was implemented. Color images of sirloins of Hanwoo (mixed with feeder cattle, steer, and calf) were divided and sub-images with image sizes of 161 × 161 were made to train the marbling prediction model. In this study, the convolutional neural network (CNN) has four convolution layers and yields prediction results in accordance with marbling grades (1++, 1+, 1, and 2&3). Every single layer uses a rectified linear unit (ReLU) function as an activation function and max-pooling is used for extracting the edge between fat and muscle and reducing the variance of the data. Prediction accuracy was measured using an accuracy and kappa coefficient from a confusion matrix. We summed the prediction of sub-images and determined the total average prediction accuracy. Training accuracy was 100% and the test accuracy was 86%, indicating comparably good performance using the CNN. This study provides classification potential for predicting the marbling grade using color images and a convolutional neural network algorithm.

크리깅을 이용한 소나무림 지위지수 공간분포 추정 (Spatial Estimation of the Site Index for Pinus densiplora using Kriging)

  • 김경민;박기호
    • 한국산림과학회지
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    • 제102권4호
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    • pp.467-476
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    • 2013
  • 산림입지도의 지위지수 정보는 조사지점에만 존재하므로 미조사 지역에 대한 지위지수는 별도의 추정이 필요하다. 미조사 지역의 지위지수 추정을 위해 본 연구에서는 점자료로부터 연속표면을 생성하는 공간 내삽법인 크리깅 기법을 적용하였다. Chapman-Richards 생장모델을 이용하여 표준지별 지위지수 추정치를 구한 뒤 가우시안, 구형 및 지수형 베리오그램 모델별로 정규크리깅을 이용하여 단양 전역의 소나무림 지위지수를 격자단위($30m{\times}30m$)로 추정하였다. 교차검증을 위해 평균오차(ME), 평균표준오차(ASE) 및 평균제곱근오차(RMSE)를 계산하였다. 베리오그램 모델 적합 결과, 상대 너깃이 가장 큰 가우시안 모델(37.40%)이 제외되었으며 구형 모델(16.80%)과 지수형 베리오그램 모델(8.77%)이 선택되었다. 크리깅에 의한 지위지수 추정치는 지수형 모델을 적용한 경우 4.39~19.53, 구형모델을 적용한 경우 4.54~19.23의 분포를 보였다. 교차 검증 결과, RMSE는 두 모델에서 큰 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났으나 구형모델의 ME와 ASE가 지수형 모델보다 작기 때문에 구형 베리오그램 모델 기반 지위지수 지도를 최종적으로 선정하였다. 지위지수 지도로부터 산출된 단양지역 소나무림 평균 지위지수는 10.78로 추정되었다. 공간이질성이 큰 우리나라 산림의 바이오매스 추정 시 지위지수 지도를 통해 지역적 변이를 고려할 수 있으며 궁극적으로는 탄소저장량 분포 추정의 정확도 제고에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.