• 한국가시화정보학회지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.62-67
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• 2021

Selective catalytic reduction(SCR) is an exhaust gas reduction device to remove nitro oxides (NOx). SCR operation of ship can be controlled through valves for minimizing economic loss from SCR. Valve in SCR-high pressure (HP) system is directly connected to engine exhaust and operates in high temperature and high pressure. Long-term thermal deformation induced by engine heat weakens the sealing of the valve, which can lead to unexpected failures during ship sailing. In order to prevent the unexpected failures due to long-term valve thermal deformation, a failure prediction system using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was proposed. Based on the heating experiment, virtual data mimicking temperature range around the SCR-HP valve were produced. By detecting abnormal temperature rise and fall based on the short-term ARIMA prediction, an algorithm determines whether present temperature data is required for failure prediction. The signal processed by the data collection algorithm was interpolated for the failure prediction. By comparing mean average error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), ARIMA model and suitable prediction instant were determined.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.33-42
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• 2021

This study aims to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth at the provincial level by using time-series data in Binh Dinh from 1997 to 2019. We applied the quantitative approaches Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) in the model, which includes economic growth, real foreign direct investment capital, ratio of trained workers, and infrastructure. The results show that all these variables are stationary at the first difference. In ARDL analysis, we found that the economic growth positively affects FDI attraction. However, there is no evidence of the effect of FDI on economic growth in the condition of low capital implemented. Moreover, findings also show that the impact of FDI on economic growth is influenced by two factors: infrastructure and human capital. The lack of human capital, which is trained personnel and infrastructure, is the main barrier hindering and inhibiting FDI's contribution to local economic growth. In order to improve the efficiency of FDI on economic growth in the future, it is suggested that the Binh Dinh government should have proper policies in terms of the infrastructure, the human capital investment. They would allow Binh Dinh to enhance the capital absorptive capacity and capital efficiency.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.625-633
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• 2021

Bangladesh's growing foreign aid has sparked controversy over whether it affects the country's economic performance. This review assesses foreign aid's influence on the country's economic growth with annual data covering the 1989-2018 period. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is applied to achieve the research objective, and the empirical results indicate a substantial and robust impact of foreign assistance on economic growth. The outcome further reveal that domestic investment also contributes significantly to the country's economic evolution. However, trade openness plays a substantial positive role in the short run, although the impact is immaterial in the long run. The empirical findings indicate that the association between aid, domestic investment, and growth has a confident meaningful effect at 1 per cent level in the long run, whereas aid influences more than domestic investment. However, in the short run, aid, domestic investment, trade openness, and growth show positive and noteworthy response also at 1 percent level. This review undertakes a detailed analysis about the country's economic growth, and grounded on its outcome, this work suggests that focus should be placed more on creating domestic investment, promoting more export, and allocation of aid should be determined by the relative needs of the country.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.1-9
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• 2021

UAE has rapidly developed into one of the leading global financial hubs, with significant transformations in its stock exchanges. In its attempt at economic diversification in the last two decades, the country has also taken a lead in the GCC region in introducing extensive reforms to attract FDI to the Emirates. However, oil price volatilities have posed a significant challenge to all oil-exporting countries. The main aim of this study is to explore the impact of economic diversification and oil price on the UAE stock market. The study applies Granger Causality and Vector Autoregressive Model on monthly Abu Dhabi stock exchange index, Dubai Fateh crude oil spot price, and FDI inflows during 2001-19. The short-term interbank rate has been included as a monetary policy variable. The results show a substantial difference between the two phases of reforms. Oil price and Abu Dhabi stock index show bidirectional relationship during 2001-09 but no causality was found during 2010-19. Furthermore, the second phase was characterized by unidirectional causation from FDI to ADX index. This study highlights FDI inflows as a key driver of stock market performance during the last decade and emphasizes the success of the intense reforms in the UAE initiated for the diversification of its economy.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.653-663
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• 2021

There has been a massive increase in household debt in China, especially in the last five of years. Learning from past experiences, the country needs careful forecasting that may help to form new policies or make amendments to the existing ones. This research paper aims to highlight the impact of the monetary policy on household debt in China. The study covers the time period from 1996 to 2020 The study employs a cointegration test, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bound Test (ARDL) approach, a Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and PP test (PMG) and time series data. The findings suggest on a quantitative analysis using a time-series model in which gdp per capita and interest rate has a positive impact on household debt whereas, cpi doesn't have significant impact. In a short-term variables relationship, household debt responds more to an increase in income than in the long-term. Also, the impact of interest rate changes on household debt is lower than income in the short run.The research suggests that there should be some restrictions on household debt and consumer financing provided to citizens and for this, appropriate leverage measures should be taken in order for the central bank to sustain robust macroeconomic conditions.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.139-154
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• 2021

This study's impetus is to explore fresh evidence to answer the question, i.e., whether remittances asymmetrically influence financial development in Bangladesh from 1975 to 2019. The study employs several tests, i.e., nonlinear unit root test, Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL), NARDL, and asymmetric causality test for establishing the pattern of association. Nonlinear unit root tests confirm that variables follow a nonlinear system of being stationary after the first difference. nonlinearity among variables is investigated by performing the BDS test and nonlinear OLS. Directional causality is investigated through both linear and nonlinear effects of remittance inflows by following the non-granger casualty test. The test statistics of Fpass and tBDM showed the Long-run cointegration in the empirical model and positive effect running from remittances inflow to financial development both in the long-run and short-run. Furthermore, the results of a standard Wald test divulge the presence of long-run and short-run asymmetry. Asymmetry causality test established unidirectional causality due to positive and negative shocks in remittances inflows to Bank-based financial development and feedback hypothesis hold for explaining causality between positive and negative shocks in remittance inflows and Stock-based financial development.

• 무역학회지
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• 제44권1호
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• pp.17-30
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• 2019

This study is to investigate the effect of real exchange rate on bilateral trade balance between Korea and ASEAN 10 countries. Using quarterly data from 1991 to 2017 the paper analyzes whether or not the real depreciation of Korea's won could improve the trade balance in the short and long term. Based on Autoregressive Distributed Lag(ARDL) model, the empirical results show that trade balance, GDP, and real exchange rate are all cointegrated, representing the long-run relationship among variables. In the consideration of long-run relationship, the increases in ASEAN countries' GDP could have a negative impact and Korea's GDP positive impact on trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries unexpectedly. For the main variable, the paper did not find the long-term effect of real exchange rate on the trade balance, for the short-term effect of the real exchange rate it was found that there exists the J-curve effect only in the case of Vietnam and Brunei. Therefore, these results imply that the intended policy concerning the exchange rate in the free-floating exchange rate system could be limited to improve the trade balance between Korea and ASEAN countries.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권7호
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• pp.393-402
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• 2021

This study aims to examine whether symmetric effects or asymmetric effects of exchange rates exist in determining the money demand in Indonesia. Simple-sum money and Divisia money were included in different models for comparison due to the financial developments in Indonesia. This study uses time-series data from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4 for the estimation. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is utilized to verify the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on money demand. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests were performed to verify the order of integration of the variables. The findings of this study revealed that the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of money demand in Indonesia and the effect is asymmetric. The findings further indicated that money demand function, which incorporates Divisia monetary aggregate is parsimonious. Monetary targets such as money supply and interest rates are critical for monetary policy conduct to achieve inflation levels set by government. As the adoption of an inflation targeting framework needs to be in keeping with the flexible exchange rate system, the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes can be used in exchange rate policy conduct to achieve financial system and price stability.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권8호
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• pp.149-156
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• 2021

Gambling negatively affects the economy, and it brings unwanted financial, social, and health outcomes to gamblers. On the one hand, unemployment is argued to be a leading cause of gambling. On the other hand, gambling can cause unemployment in the second-order via gambling-induced poor health, falling productivity, and crime. In terms of significant effects, previous studies were able to establish an association, but not causality. The current study examines the time-sequence and contemporaneous causalities between lottery gambling and unemployment in Thailand. The Granger causality and directed acyclic graph (DAG) tests employ time-series data on gambling- and unemployment-related Google Trends indexes from January 2004 to April 2021 (208 monthly observations). These tests are based on the estimates from a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Granger causality is a way to investigate causality between two variables in a time series. However, this approach cannot detect the contemporaneous causality among variables that occurred within the same period. The contemporaneous causal structure of gambling and unemployment was identified via the data-determined DAG approach. The use of time-series Google Trends indexes in gambling studies is new. Based on this data set, unemployment is found to contemporaneously cause gambling, whereas gambling Granger causes unemployment. The causalities are circular and last for four months.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제9권6호
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• pp.245-252
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• 2022

This study examines the strength of the impact of fiscal policy tools on economic wellbeing as measured by per capita income in Malaysia from 1996 to 2020. The impact of fiscal policy instruments on economic wellness, represented by real income per capita, is measured using the autoregressive distributed lags model. The speed of adjustment from short-run disequilibrium to long-run equilibrium is also measured to assess the strength of the fiscal instruments' impact on per capita income. Empirical results exhibit the existence of co-integration relationships between per capita income, tax revenue, and government spending. The findings provide strong support for the presence of a long-run positive impact on government spending and a long-run negative impact of tax revenue on per capita income. The coefficient of ECT_t-1 indicates that deviations from a short-run disequilibrium to a long-run equilibrium from the current to the future period are corrected with a speed of 76% (equivalent to a duration of 1.5-2 years to return to equilibrium). The practical and policy implication of the results is fiscal instruments play a significant role, mainly in alleviating the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the long run.