• Title/Summary/Keyword: Auto-Regressive Model

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PREDICTION OF FAULT TREND IN A LNG PLANT USING WAVELET TRANSFORM AND ARIMA MODEL

  • Yeonjong Ju;Changyoon Kim;Hyoungkwan Kim
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.388-392
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    • 2009
  • Operation of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plants requires an effective maintenance strategy. To this end, the long-term and short-term trend of faults, such as mechanical and electrical troubles, should be identified so as to take proactive approach for ensuring the smooth and productive operation. However, it is not an easy task to predict the fault trend in LNG plants. Many variables and unexpected conditions make it quite difficult for the facility manager to be well prepared for future faulty conditions. This paper presents a model to predict the fault trend in a LNG plant. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model is combined with Wavelet Transform to enhance the prediction capability of the proposed model. Test results show the potential of the proposed model for the preventive maintenance strategy.

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Identification of Noise Covariance by using Innovation Correlation Test (이노베이션 상관관계 테스트를 이용한 잡음인식)

  • Park, Seong-Wook
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1992.07a
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    • pp.305-307
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    • 1992
  • This paper presents a technique, which identifies both process noise covariance and sensor noise covariance by using innovation correlation test. A correlation test, which checks whether the square root Kalman filter is workingly optimal or not, is given. The system is stochastic autoregressive moving-average model with auxiliary white noise Input. The linear quadratic Gaussian control is used for minimizing stochastic cost function. This paper indentifies Q, R, and estimates parametric matrics $A(q^{-1}),B(q^{-1}),C(q^{-1})$ by means of extended recursive least squares and model reference control. And The proposed technique has been validated in simulation results on the fourth order system.

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SOx Process Simulation, Monitoring, and Pattern Classification in a Power Plant (발전소에서의 SOx 공정 모사, 모니터링 및 패턴 분류)

  • 최상욱;유창규;이인범
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.8 no.10
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    • pp.827-832
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    • 2002
  • We propose a prediction method of the pollutant and a synchronous classification of the current state of SOx emission in the power plant. We use the auto-regressive with exogeneous (ARX) model as a predictor of SOx emission and use a radial basis function network (RBFN) as a pattem classifier. The ARX modeling scheme is implemented using recursive least squares (RLS) method to update the model parameters adaptively. The capability of SOx emission monitoring is utilized with the application of the RBFN classifier. Experimental results show that the ARX model can predict the SOx emission concentration well and ARX modeling parameters can be a good feature for the state monitoring. in addition, its validity has been verified through the power spectrum analysis. Consequently, the RBFN classifier in combination with ARX model is shown to be quite adequate for monitoring the state of SOx emission.

A DC-Offset Elimination Algorithm Based on an AR Model (AR모델을 이용한 직류 옵셋 성분 제거 알고리즘)

  • Chang Soo Young;Lee Dong Gyu;Kang Sang Hee
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.289-291
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    • 2004
  • ln this paper, A dc-offset elimination novel algorithm based on an An model is proposed. The algorithm can eliminate dc-offset rapidly than other algorithms. The signal of fault current can be presented as a linear equation combined sinusoidal with exponential signals. Then, the linear equation can be presented an auto-regressive(AR) model and do-offset can be calculated by the equation of AR model. So it is possible to be removed the dc-offset from the original current signal. Performance evaluation of the algorithm was tested on condition that A-phase ground fault on 154kV 25km overhead transmission line.

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An Image Synthesis Technique Based on the Pyramidal Structure and MAP Estimation Technique (계층적 Pyramid구조와 MAP 추정 기법을 이용한 Texture 영상 합성 기법)

  • 정석윤;이상욱
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics
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    • v.26 no.8
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    • pp.1238-1246
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    • 1989
  • In this paper, a texture synthesis technique based on the NCAR(non-causal auto-regressive) model and the pyramid structure is proposed. In order to estimate the NCAR model parameters accurately from a noisy texture, the MAP(maximum a posteriori) estimation technique is also employed. In our approach, since the input texture is decomposed into the Laplacian oyramid planes first and then the NCAR model is applied to each plane, we are able to obtain a good synthesized texture even if the texture exhibits some non-random local structure or non-homogenity. The usrfulness of the proposed method is demonstrated with seveal real textures in the Brodatz album. Finally, the 2-dimensional MAP estimation technique can be used to the image restoration for noisy images as well as a texture image synthesis.

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Nuclear Reactor Modeling in Load Following Operations for Korea Next Generation PWR with Neural Network (신경회로망을 이용한 부하추종운전중의 차세대 원자로 모델링)

  • Lee Sang-Kyung;Jang Jin-Wook;Seong Seung-Hwan;Lee Un-Chul
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.54 no.9
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    • pp.567-569
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    • 2005
  • NARX(Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous input) neural network was used for prediction of nuclear reactor behavior which was influenced by control rods in short-term period and also by the concentration of xenon and boron in long-term period in load following operations. The developed model was designed to predict reactor power, xenon worth and axial offset with different burnup states when control rods and boron were adjusted in load following operations. Data of the Korea Next Generation PWR were collected by ONED94 code. The test results presented exhibit the capability of the NARX neural network model to capture the long term and short term dynamics of the reactor core and the developed model seems to be utilized as a handy tool for the use of a plant simulation.

Rao-Blackwellized Particle Filtering for Sequential Speech Enhancement (Rao-Blackwellized particle filter를 이용한 순차적 음성 강조)

  • Park Sun-Ho;Choi Seun-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 2006.06b
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    • pp.151-153
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    • 2006
  • we present a method of sequential speech enhancement, where we infer clean speech signal using a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter (RBPF), given a noise-contaminated observed signal. In contrast to Kalman filtering-based methods, we consider a non-Gaussian speech generative model that is based on the generalized auto-regressive (GAR) model. Model parameters are learned by a sequential Newton-Raphson expectation maximization (SNEM), incorporating the RBPF. Empirical comparison to Kalman filter, confirms the high performance of the proposed method.

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Accurate State of Charge Estimation of LiFePO4 Battery Based on the Unscented Kalman Filter and the Particle Filter (언센티드 칼만 필터와 파티클 필터에 기반한 리튬 인산철 배터리의 정확한 충전 상태 추정)

  • Nguyen, Thanh-Tung;Awan, Mudassir Ibrahim;Choi, Woojin
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2017.07a
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    • pp.126-127
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    • 2017
  • An accurate State Of Charge (SOC) estimation of battery is the most important technique for Electric Vehicles (EVs) and Energy Storage Systems (ESSs). In this paper a new integrated Unscented Kalman Filter-Particle Filter (UKF-PF) is employed to estimate the SOC of a $LiFePO_4$ battery cell and a significant improvement is obtained as compared to the other methods. The parameters of the battery is modeled by the second order Auto Regressive eXogenous (ARX) model and estimated by using Recursive Least Square (RLS) method to calculate value of each element in the model. The proposed algorithm is established by combining a parameter identification technique using RLS method with ARX model and an SOC estimation technique using UKF-PF.

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Electroencephalogram-Based Driver Drowsiness Detection System Using Errors-In-Variables(EIV) and Multilayer Perceptron(MLP) (EIV와 MLP를 이용한 뇌파 기반 운전자의 졸음 감지 시스템)

  • Han, Hyungseob;Song, Kyoung-Young
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.39C no.10
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    • pp.887-895
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    • 2014
  • Drowsy driving is a large proportion of the total car accidents. For this reason, drowsiness detection and warning system for drivers has recently become a very important issue. Monitoring physiological signals provides the possibility of detecting features of drowsiness and fatigue of drivers. Many researches have been published that to measure electroencephalogram(EEG) signals is the effective way in order to be aware of fatigue and drowsiness of drivers. The aim of this study is to extract drowsiness-related features from a set of EEG signals and to classify the features into three states: alertness, transition, and drowsiness. This paper proposes a drowsiness detection system using errors-in-variables(EIV) for extraction of feature vectors and multilayer perceptron (MLP) for classification. The proposed method evaluates robustness for noise and compares to the previous one using linear predictive coding (LPC) combined with MLP. From evaluation results, we conclude that the proposed scheme outperforms the previous one in the low signal-to-noise ratio regime.

The Relationship Study for Major Petrochemical Complexes and Liquid Cargo Ports by the Granger and Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test (Granger 및 Toda-Yamamoto 인과 검정을 통한 주요 석유화학단지와 액체화물 항만들의 관계성 연구)

  • Lee, Gwamg-Un;Shin, Chang-Hoon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.43 no.6
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    • pp.469-474
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    • 2019
  • One of the world's major resources is crude oil, the most fundamental part of the industry. There is no place that does not use crude oil. Petroleum refining products and chemical production industrial products are produced through nearby petrochemical complexes and ports after importing crude oil. There would be a possible relationship among the petrochemical complexes and nearby regional ports working with liquid cargoes. To confirm these relations, Ulsan Port, Daesan Port, and Yeosu Gwangyang Port were selected for this study. A Vector Auto Regressive model using time series data was applied. A Unit Root Test was performed. The relationship was confirmed through the Granger and Toda Yamamoto Causality Test.