• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.595-598
• /
• 2004

This research seeks to derive the design rainfalls through the L-moment with the test of homogeneity, independence and outlier of data on annual maximum daily rainfall at 38 rainfall stations in Korea. To select the appropriate distribution of annual maximum daily rainfall data by the rainfall stations, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic (GLO), Generalized Pareto (GPA), Generalized Normal (GNO) and Pearson Type 3 (PT3) probability distributions were applied and their aptness were judged using an L-moment ratio diagram and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Parameters of appropriate distributions were estimated from the observed and simulated annual maximum daily rainfall using Monte Carlo techniques. Design rainfalls were finally derived by GEV distribution, which was proved to be more appropriate than the other distributions.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2004.05b
• /
• pp.635-639
• /
• 2004

댐과 같은 구조물의 설계시 큰 강우량에 내한 분포함수의 적합성을 놀일 필요가 있다. 이에 대해 Wang (1997a and b)은 큰 설계량에 내한 적합성을 놀이기 위해 LH 모멘트와 고차 PWM(higher Probability Weighted Moments)방법을 제안하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 자 지역별로 대표적인 4개 지점의 일 강우량 자료를 사용하여 제안된 고차 PWM 방법의 적용성을 살펴보았다. 그 과정으로 가장 낮은 차수인 일반적인 PWM 방법과 더 높은 차수의 PWM 방법을 이용하여, GEV(Generalized Extreme Value) 분포와 Gumbel 분포에 대한 매개변수를 추정한 후 이 추정치를 확률지에 실측치와 함께 도시하여 결과를 비교하였다. 그리고 PPCC(Probability Plot Correlation Coefficient) 적합도 검정결과를 통해 추정된 매개변수의 적합성을 확인하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2012.05a
• /
• pp.258-258
• /
• 2012

In frequency analyses of hydrological data, it is necessary for the interested variables to be homogenous and independent. However, recent evidences have shown that the occurrence of extreme hydro-meteorological events is influenced by large-scale climate variability, and the assumption of homogeneity does not generally hold anymore. Therefore, in order to associate the non-homogenous characteristics of hydro-meteorological variables, we propose the parameter estimation method of probability models using meta-heuristic algorithms, specifically harmony search. All the weather stations in South Korea were employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed approaches. The results showed that the proposed parameter estimation method using harmony search is a comparativealternative for the probability distribution of the non-homogenous hydro-meteorological variables data.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
• /
• v.18 no.3
• /
• pp.308-313
• /
• 2005

Logistic Regression Analysis was used to compute the odds ratio (OR) and probability of conception of Holstein dairy cows of AL-MARAIE company. Data consisted of 103,778 reproductive records collected from three farms in the central region in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Records were classified according to lactation number, season of calving and milk level. At first lactation, OR of first service was 0.63 of other services and probability of pregnancy from first services was 0.39. Odds ratio increased to 1.72 at fourth lactation or probability of conception reached 0.63. The probability of conception increased from 0.39 for cows inseminated at first services to 0.75 at fifth service insemination. Odds ratio of cows calving in winter were higher than those calving in summer. Odds ratio of conception of low producing cows is about twice as likely to occur from first service as from other services. However, OR of conception of high producing cows was higher than one (probability=0.56) from first service and increased to 1.63 (probability=0.65) from third service. Odds ratio was in favor of the right uterus horn where probability of conception from first service was slightly greater than 50% in first and second lactations and less than 50% in favor of left horn in later lactations.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.63-72
• /
• 2005

This paper considered the impact of changing the product liability rule from consumer to producer liability on product safety under asymmetric information. In particular, it has been attempted to remove several constraints on antecedent studies. The main results of the study are as follows: under the misperception of the risk on a product, consumers may underestimate the probability of product failure. In this case, the accident rate can be lowered under the producer's liability rule. However, even under the asymmetric information, a consumer's estimation on the probability may be converged with the expected risk level, which could be called the 'rational expectation.' In this situation the probability of product failure can be lowered under the strict liability with contributory negligence. Additionally, it is possible to reduce the probability of product failure when a legal rule that imposes liability on cheapest cost avoider is admitted.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• v.20 no.6
• /
• pp.455-466
• /
• 2013

In nested case-control studies, the most common way to make inference under a proportional hazards model is the conditional logistic approach of Thomas (1977). Inclusion probability methods are more efficient than the conditional logistic approach of Thomas; however, the epidemiology research community has not accepted the methods as a replacement of the Thomas' method. This paper promotes the inverse probability weighting method originally proposed by Samuelsen (1997) in combination with an approximate jackknife standard error that can be easily computed using existing software. Simulation studies demonstrate that this approach yields valid type 1 errors and greater powers than the conditional logistic approach in nested case-control designs across various sample sizes and magnitudes of the hazard ratios. A generalization of the method is also made to incorporate additional matching and the stratified Cox model. The proposed method is illustrated with data from a cohort of children with Wilm's tumor to study the association between histological signatures and relapses.

• Water for future
• /
• v.9 no.1
• /
• pp.81-85
• /
• 1976

This study is tried to determine the probability rainfall-depth of Seoul, Daegu and Mokpo easily by using a regression line. The correlation between the probability rainfalldepth of each duration from 10-minute to 120-minute and return period is derived so as to become the linear least squares curve fit, and the analytical method that the probability rainfall-depth about the given duration is able to be gotten directory on it is studied. In this research, fair correlation among them is shown, and when the variables are transformed suitably, the application of this method to other points besides three cities are considered to be possible.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.77-92
• /
• 2008

This study investigates the characteristics of young debtors at risk of repayment problems. A cumulative logistic model is used in order to examine the effects of explanatory variables on the probability for young adults to pay off debt obligations. The following conclusions can be drawn from the results. First, the high indebtedness of young debtors increases the probability of payment delinquency whereas high income by young debtors decreases the probability. Second, financial emergencies that young debtors experienced and payment delinquency are positively related. Finally, financial resources for emergency needs reduced the probability of being delinquency on payment of household debt.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 1996.05a
• /
• pp.553-558
• /
• 1996

• Journal of Distribution Science
• /
• v.16 no.11
• /
• pp.37-45
• /
• 2018

Purpose - Recently, large quantities of factors have affected the signing of the Free Trade Agreement between two countries. Due to this background, this paper selects South Korea as an example to explore the determinants of Free Trade Agreement from Asian countries. Research design, data, and methodology - A cross sectional data of 2016 will be employed and some variables such as real income and GDP will be used to run an empirical analysis under the linear probability model, probit model and logit model. Results - The findings show that the Asian countries' exchange rate regime, real income, GDP and so forth can increase the probability of signing the Free Trade Agreement with Asian countries. Conversely, the distance can lower the probability of signing the Free Trade Agreement with Asian countries. Meanwhile, although the Asian countries' import, consumer price index and population also can affect the probability of signing the Free Trade Agreement with Asian countries, the estimated coefficients are not statistically significant at 5% level. Conclusions - According to the empirical results, this paper provides a new scope for South Korea's government to sign the Free Trade Agreement with other Asian countries.