• Title/Summary/Keyword: Association probability

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Estimating the Accuracy of Polygraph Test (폴리그라프 검사의 정확도 추정)

  • Jin-Sup Eom ;Hyung-Ki Ji ;Kwangbai Park
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.1-18
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    • 2008
  • The present study examined the accuracy of polygraph tests through two types of statistical methods with unknown ground truth. One method evaluated the accuracy based on the rates of agreements between polygraph test results of crime suspects and prosecutors' indictment decisions for them. Those crime suspects were tested with polygraph by the Prosecutors' Office of the Republic of Korea between 2000 and 2004. The other method estimated the accuracy by using the latent class analysis based on the frequency distributions of the polygraph results and indictments during 2006. Excluding cases that were 'inconclusive' on the polygraph test, the study showed that the accuracy of the polygraph tests is .914 (SE=.004) for the 2000-2004 data, and .885 (SE=.021) for the 2006 data. With the inclusion of 'inconclusive' cases in the 2006 data, the results from the latent class analysis showed the accuracy in the range between .707 and .734 (SE=.027~.031), with false positives between .078 and .087 (SE=.019~.023), and false negatives between .029 and .078 (SE=.010~.023). The probability that the polygraph test correctly classifies subjects appeared to be in the range between .912 and .925 (SE=.013-.016) for those who lie, and in the range between .867 to .955 (SE=.011-.040) for those who tell the truth.

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A Study on Factors Related to Men's Thinking and attitudes on Prostitution and Gender: Based on the Previous Experience of Buying Sex (성인 남성의 성구매 경험에 따른 성매매와 성 관련변인에 대한 연구)

  • Eunjin Lee
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.377-398
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the differences in men's thinking and attitude on prostitution and gender based on the previous experience of buying sex. It was an exploratory survey for planning future studies and movements for changing a way of thinking in relation to prostitution. A total of 1328 male adults(above 19 years) completed a questionnaire consisting of general thinking of buying sex, tolerance limit of sexual behavior, and sex role egalitarianism. The respondents answered differently in the probability of paying for sex in future and the way how to get a sex information according to the previous experience of buying sex. Those respondents who had paid for sex, had higher scores on three types of sex attitude measures than those who did not. The previous experience of buying sex was significantly correlated with sub-factors of buying sex, tolerance limit of sexual behavior, and sex role egalitarianism except for the sub-factor on recognizing a sex worker as a victim (factor 4 of buying sex). These results suggest that men who had paid for sex had more traditional gender-stereotypes and attitudes. Implications and limitations of this study were discussed in a feminist perspective.

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North Korean Defectors' depression through the CES-D and the Rorschach test (CES-D와 로샤검사를 통해 본 북한이탈주민의 우울감)

  • Jong-Nam Kim;Yun-Kyung Choi;Jung-Min Chae
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.41-61
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    • 2008
  • This study was performed to investigate the North Korean defectors's depression through the CES-D and a projective test simultaneously. So 40 North Korean defectors and 40 South Koreans participated in this study. The results are the following. First, the North Korean defectors demonstrated more higher CES-D scores than the South Koreans, while there were not significant differences in the Rorschach depression-related indexes, DEPI, CDI, S-CON between two groups. Second, at the analysis of the sex difference effect, women among the North Korean defectors showed the most high CDI index scores. In addition, we analyzed the mean differences between two groups for morbid content, shading response, achromatic response, human movement response, form dimension response, Lamda, and the number of total response. However, there are not significant differences between two groups for those variables, except for form dimension(FD) response. It suggested the probability that the North Korean women defectors could experience more psychological distress underlyingly than the North Korean men defectors. Third, most importantly, the correlation between CES-D and DEPI in the Rorschach test was significantly different in the two groups(the North Korean defectors and the South Koreans). In conclusion, the self-report of the North Korean defectors on depression could be exaggerated. So we should be cautious to interpret the self report results of the North Korean defectors.

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Importance of an Integrated Assessment of Functional Disability and Work Ability in Workers Affected by Low Back Pain

  • Fabrizio Russo;Cristina Di Tecco;Simone Russo;Giorgia Petrucci;Gianluca Vadala;Vincenzo Denaro;Sergio Iavicoli
    • Safety and Health at Work
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.66-72
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    • 2024
  • Background: This study examines the relationship between functional disability and work ability in workers affected by low back pain (LBP) through an analysis of correlations between the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) and Work Ability Index (WAI). The role of personal and work factors on functional disability/work ability levels has also been studied. LBP is the most common musculoskeletal problem and a major disabling health problem worldwide. Its etiology is multifactorial. Multidisciplinary approaches may help reduce the burden of pain and disability and improve job continuity and reintegration at work. Methods: A cohort of 264 patients affected by LBP from an Italian outpatient clinic were included in a clinical diagnostic/therapeutic trial aiming at rehabilitation and return to work through an integrated investigation protocol. Data were collected during the first medical examination using anamnestic and clinical tools. The final sample is composed of 252 patients, 57.1% man, 44.0 % blue collars, 46.4% with the high school degree, 45.6% married. Results: WAI and ODI reported a negative and fair correlation (r = -0.454; p = .000). Workers with acute LBP symptoms have a higher probability of severe disability than those with chronic LBP symptoms. White collars without depressive symptoms reported higher work ability - even in chronic disability conditions-than those with depressive symptoms. Conclusion: The study found that ODI and WAI have a convergent validity and this suggests that the two tools measure capture distinctive aspects of disability related to personal, environmental, and occupational characteristics. The most important and modifiable prognostic factors found for ODI and WAI were depressive symptoms, workday absence, and intensity of back pain. The study also found a mild association between age and ODI. The study's findings highlight the importance of using a multidisciplinary approach to manage and prevent disability due to LBP.

Relationship Between Dairy Intake and Hospitalization Risk and Disease Severity in Patients With COVID-19

  • Seyed Ali Abbas-Hashemi;Zahra Yari;Samira Soltanieh;Marieh Salavatizadeh;Sara Karimi;Sussan K. Ardestani;Mohammadreza Salehi;Soodeh Razeghi Jahromi;Tooba Ghazanfari;Azita Hekmatdoost
    • Clinical Nutrition Research
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2023
  • The aim of this study was to investigate whether dairy intake was associated with the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease and the probability of hospitalization of patients. This cross-sectional study was conducted on 141 patients with COVID-19 with an average age of 46.23 ± 15.88 years. The number of men (52.5%) participating in this study was higher than that of women. The association between dairy intake and COVID-19 was evaluated by multivariable logistic regression analysis. The risk of hospitalization in the highest tertile of dairy intake was 31% lower than in the lowest tertile (odds ratio [OR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.37-1.25, p trend = 0.023). Higher milk and yogurt intake was associated with a reduced risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19. Patients in the third tertiles were about 65% (p for trend = 0.014) and 12% (p for trend = 0.050) less likely to be hospitalized than those in the first tertile, respectively. Dairy consumption, especially low-fat ones, was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization due to COVID-19 and lower severity of COVID-19.

A Modified eCura System to Stratify the Risk of Lymph Node Metastasis in Undifferentiated-Type Early Gastric Cancer After Endoscopic Resection

  • Hyo-Joon Yang ;Hyuk Lee;Tae Jun Kim;Da Hyun Jung;Kee Don Choi;Ji Yong Ahn;Wan Sik Lee;Seong Woo Jeon;Jie-Hyun Kim;Gwang Ha Kim;Jae Myung Park;Sang Gyun Kim;Woon Geon Shin;Young-Il Kim;Il Ju Choi
    • Journal of Gastric Cancer
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.172-184
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    • 2024
  • Purpose: The original eCura system was designed to stratify the risk of lymph node metastasis (LNM) after endoscopic resection (ER) in patients with early gastric cancer (EGC). We assessed the effectiveness of a modified eCura system for reflecting the characteristics of undifferentiated-type (UD)-EGC. Materials and Methods: Six hundred thirty-four patients who underwent non-curative ER for UD-EGC and received either additional surgery (radical surgery group; n=270) or no further treatment (no additional treatment group; n=364) from 18 institutions between 2005 and 2015 were retrospectively included in this study. The eCuraU system assigned 1 point each for tumors >20 mm in size, ulceration, positive vertical margin, and submucosal invasion <500 ㎛; 2 points for submucosal invasion ≥500 ㎛; and 3 points for lymphovascular invasion. Results: LNM rates in the radical surgery group were 1.1%, 5.4%, and 13.3% for the low-(0-1 point), intermediate- (2-3 points), and high-risk (4-8 points), respectively (P-fortrend<0.001). The eCuraU system showed a significantly higher probability of identifying patients with LNM as high-risk than the eCura system (66.7% vs. 22.2%; McNemar P<0.001). In the no additional treatment group, overall survival (93.4%, 87.2%, and 67.6% at 5 years) and cancer-specific survival (99.6%, 98.9%, and 92.9% at 5 years) differed significantly among the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories, respectively (both P<0.001). In the high-risk category, surgery outperformed no treatment in terms of overall mortality (hazard ratio, 3.26; P=0.015). Conclusions: The eCuraU system stratified the risk of LNM in patients with UD-EGC after ER. It is strongly recommended that high-risk patients undergo additional surgery.

Estimation of the Moisture Maximizing Rate based on the Moisture Inflow Direction : A Case Study of Typhoon Rusa in Gangneung Region (수분유입방향을 고려한 강릉지역 태풍 루사의 수분최대화비 산정)

  • Kim, Moon-Hyun;Jung, Il-Won;Im, Eun-Soon;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.697-707
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    • 2007
  • In this study, we estimated the PMP(Probable Maximum Precipitation) and its transition in case of the typhoon Rusa which happened the biggest damage of all typhoons in the Korea. Specially, we analysed the moisture maximizing rate under the consideration of meteorological condition based on the orographic property when it hits in Gangneung region. The PMP is calculated by the rate of the maximum persisting 12 hours 1000 hPa dew points and representative persisting 12 hours 1000 hPa dew point. The former is influenced by the moisture inflow regions. These regions are determined by the surface wind direction, 850 hPa moisture flux and streamline, which are the critically different aspects compared to that of previous study. The latter is calculated using statistics program (FARD2002) provided by NIDP(National Institute for Disaster Prevention). In this program, the dew point is calculated by reappearance period 50-year frequency analysis from 5% of the level of significant when probability distribution type is applied extreme type I (Gumbel distribution) and parameter estimation method is used the Moment method. So this study indicated for small basin$(3.76km^2)$ the difference the PMP through new method and through existing result of established storm transposition and DAD(Depth-Area-Duration). Consequently, the moisture maximizing rate is calculated in the moisture inflow regions determined by meteorological fields is higher $0.20{\sim}0.40$ range than that of previous study. And the precipitation is increased $16{\sim}31%$ when this rate is applied for calculation.

Evaluation of Ecological Niche for Major Tree Species in the Natural Deciduous Forest of Mt. Chumbong (점봉산(點鳳山) 일대(一帶) 천연활엽수림(天然闊葉樹林)의 주요(主要) 구성(構成) 수종(樹種)에 대한 생태지위(生態地位) 평가(評價))

  • Kim, Guang Ze;Kim, Ji Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.3
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    • pp.380-387
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    • 2001
  • The characteristics of ecological niche, breadth and overlap, for seventeen major tree species were evaluated in the natural deciduous forest in Mt. Chumbong area. Employed by the plot sampling method, the environmental gradient for vertical niche was based on the intensity of light within the forest, and that for horizontal niche was based on multi-dimensional resources in distribution pattern. The result showed that Fraxinus rhynchophylla had the highest value of vertical niche breadth and Maackia amurensis had the lowest, and Acer pseudo-sieboldianum had the highest value of horizontal niche breadth and Betula costata had the lowest. There was no significant correlation between both measures of niche breadth. However, the tolerance index for each species was positively correlated to the values of niche breadth. Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were applied to test the correlationship between the species ranks of tolerance index and those of two ecological niche breadths. The coefficient of $r_s=0.432$ ($P{\leq}0.1$) was not enough to support significant correlationship between the tolerance index and vertical niche breadth at the 95% probability. If Carpinus cordata, rarely reach canopy of the forest due to its own growth form, are excluded from the analysis, coefficient was calculated as $r_s=0.650$ ($P{\leq}0.01$), resulting in highly significant correlationship. The Spearman's rank correlation coefficient was $r_s=0.797$ ($P{\leq}0.01$) for tolerance indices and the values of horizontal niche breadth, indicating highly significant. Four distinctive species groups, produced by cluster analysis on the basis of ecological niche overlap for each pair of species, were in considerable accord with the positively associated species constellation pattern created by the inter-species association analysis.

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A Brief Empirical Verification Using Multiple Regression Analysis on the Measurement Results of Seaport Efficiency of AHP/DEA-AR (다중회귀분석을 이용한 AHP/DEA-AR 항만효율성 측정결과의 실증적 검증소고)

  • Park, Ro-kyung
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.73-87
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the empirical results of Analytic Hierarchy Process/Data Envelopment Analysis-Assurance Region(AHP/DEA-AR) by using multiple regression analysis during the period of 2009-2012 with 5 inputs (number of gantry cranes, number of berth, berth length, terminal yard, and mean depth) and 2 outputs (container TEU, and number of direct calling shipping companies). Assurance Region(AR) is the most important tool to measure the efficiency of seaports, because individual seaports are characterized in terms of inputs and outputs. Traditional AHP and multiple regression analysis techniques have been used for measuring the AR. However, few previous studies exist in the field of seaport efficiency measurement. The main empirical results of this study are as follows. First, the efficiency ranking comparison between the two models (AHP/DEA-AR and multiple regression) using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and Mann-Whitney signed-rank sum test were matched with the average level of 84.5 % and 96.3% respectively. When data for four years are used, the ratios of the significant probability are decreased to 61.4% and 92.5%. The policy implication of this study is that the policy planners of Korean port should introduce AHP/DEA-AR and multiple regression analysis when they measure the seaport efficiency and consider the port investment for enhancing the efficiency of inputs and outputs. The next study will deal with the subjects introducing the Fuzzy method, non-radial DEA, and the mixed analysis between AHP/DEA-AR and multiple regression analysis.

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.